Oil is dropping and a lot more downside is likely ahead. The economic turmoil with bank failures and a lengthening war in Ukraine are taking a toll on Oil. Oil appears to be plunging into the $50's. Weekly
"The Panic of 1907, also known as the 1907 Bankers' Panic or Knickerbocker Crisis, was a financial crisis that took place in the United States over a three-week period"
Well I know there is still more downside for markets since GUSH has more down for lower low as shown. The debate is only whether it bounces. The VIX will calm down again also though.
One thing we can learn from the Banker's Panic of 1907 is that bank runs tend to last 3 weeks.
This may be applicable to the current situation. If there is a relief rally next week then that may setup for a 3 week run on the banks starting in April. This is what I suspect. Time will tell.
I'm still expecting Oil lower. My thoughts are that spring is a perfect time for a decline in Oil before the summer gasoline peak season. Oil and gas will likely run up this summer.
So BOIL may have more downside for a couple months but could be interesting June or so for the summer months.
I am looking for 3950 then above 4200 I think at some point end of May beginning of June. We're gonna get smashed into the basement possibly. Thi subway thirty seven hundred thirty five hundred who the h*** knows
OCGN had been under pressure with the public health emergency ending next month in May. However the timing is ripening and with that event soon out of the way, the next phases of the pandemic will continue...
My Covid indicator hasn't budged. Currently at 782,000 and holding solid. Clearly from the indicator Covid fears haven't abated at all.
I will be talking about all this a lot more, I expect, soon.
For OCGN specifically I think when a contract is reached it will change the picture substantially. Remember Mexico has authorized their vaccine Covaxin already and the WHO has approved it. A contract next!
"Ocugen is currently developing a novel mucosal vaccine platform that includes OCU500, a bivalent COVID-19 inhaled vaccine; OCU510, a seasonal quadrivalent flu inhaled vaccine; and OCU520, a combination quadrivalent seasonal flu and bivalent COVID-19 inhaled vaccine. The OCU500 series grants Ocugen a distinct product candidate profile status that could significantly impact major global health obstacles and maximize the Company’s opportunity to serve broader patient markets. For the 2022 to 2023 flu season, in the United States alone, more than 50% of the population above six months of age received a seasonal flu shot, representing a market size of more than 170 million doses."
No joke, you're telling me. As of March, my home gas bill has a 20% carbon tax tacked onto it. Incremental increases will be until 2030. I can't imaging what it will cost in the future. Everything we buy that is transported is paying this tax. This tax is generating inflation.
Yet, there has been no effect on lowering carbon emissions. I think people are starting to figure it out. This has been Canada's biggest tax grab diquised as being good for the environment. What a joke. Trudeau must go
DRIP stands to benefit from a deepening plunge in Oil and stock market selloff.
ReplyDeleteAnother "tell" today. Oil is down again despite a relief rally in SPX.
ReplyDeleteSc... what is your target for the spx bottom this month ?
ReplyDeleteI am expecting SPX to continue to drop until GUSH hits that green line. So it's very simple.
DeleteSPX 3,600 - a higher low from October
VIX has done exactly as shown on the previous chart! It went up hit 30 and is dropping now. Perfect!!!
ReplyDeleteHow is spx to go to 3600 with falling vix ?
ReplyDeleteVIX hit 30 and I expect is coming down to 15 - 16 trendline as shown on the previous chart. Then VIX breakout higher.
DeleteAll as per the plan as shown on the chart.
I understand that but how is spx going to fall 350 points to 3600 this month if vix is dropping ??
DeleteMarch I wouldn't necessarily hang my hat on
DeleteMarch we just hit the 3 years from the SPX Covid low. Timing - I am thinking about the next steps.
DeleteI'm leaning towards April Sami
DeleteA have see a turn date in April from several sources, but also late this month
DeleteLet's just say we would expect timing to position in UVXY soon also... Waiting and watching
ReplyDeleteI feel DRIP can still pullback a bit before next run.
ReplyDeleteCrude Oil WTIC and GUSH daily charts posted to Twitter
ReplyDeleteCRACK! Oil broke the $70 support!!
ReplyDelete"The Panic of 1907, also known as the 1907 Bankers' Panic or Knickerbocker Crisis, was a financial crisis that took place in the United States over a three-week period"
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1636008370208473088
Deletewhen vix 15?
ReplyDeleteWell I know there is still more downside for markets since GUSH has more down for lower low as shown. The debate is only whether it bounces. The VIX will calm down again also though.
Delete"Oil tumbles nearly 7%, heads for worst day in six months as banking crisis routs markets"
ReplyDeleteOne thing we can learn from the Banker's Panic of 1907 is that bank runs tend to last 3 weeks.
ReplyDeleteThis may be applicable to the current situation. If there is a relief rally next week then that may setup for a 3 week run on the banks starting in April. This is what I suspect. Time will tell.
Panic of 1907
DeleteOct 14, 1907 – Nov 6, 1907
Brent bottom is at 70 it correlates with CL 62 area
ReplyDeleteThanks! Looks good. April
DeleteSeems they are desperate...
ReplyDelete"A group of financial institutions has agreed to deposit $30 billion in First Republic"
VIX 30 has been holding
ReplyDeleteA bounce in Crude WTIC looks possible but will likely be limited to $72.
ReplyDeleteDRIP coming down as anticipated. I'm expecting $13 DRIP in 2 or 3 weeks.
ReplyDeleteSPX should rally for a few weeks with volatility VIX turned down at $30.
Even Oil will likely bounce.
Then April massive......
Credit Suisse problem solved - relief rally.
ReplyDeleteThe problem of course is not really solved by creating a bigger bank UBS with CS. But it is enough to spark a countertrend rally.
DeleteVIX dips!!!
ReplyDeleteAll according to plan. VIX chart!
DeleteAny thoughts about BOIL?
ReplyDeleteI'm still expecting Oil lower. My thoughts are that spring is a perfect time for a decline in Oil before the summer gasoline peak season. Oil and gas will likely run up this summer.
DeleteSo BOIL may have more downside for a couple months but could be interesting June or so for the summer months.
SC: What do you think of LABU?
ReplyDeleteI think XBI and LABU are getting closer to a big run. Prices may still come down though as the public health emergency doesn't end until May.
Delete"On Jan. 30, 2023, the Biden Administration announced it will end the public health emergency (and national emergency) declarations on May 11, 2023"
Do you still expect market will run until Mid April ( you mentioned 3 weeks) then crash and UVIX will up?
ReplyDeleteLet's see how it looks in April. Markets are bouncing for now but more selling is coming.
DeleteSC, vix to 18-19?
ReplyDeleteYes VIX 17.50 to test February levels
DeleteSC ... do you think the lows of the year are put in the SPX price wise?
ReplyDeletethanks
I'm expecting SPX to test the lows soon
DeleteOh wow....
DeleteYou mean the 3495 of last october ?
By when ?
Thank you
Looking good for volatility setups coming. I just want to see a little more to time next moves.
DeleteMy CL call was beautiful, there was a hard line down there that no Govt was going to flush below....
ReplyDeleteExpecting SPX to test the lows soon---Are you expecting this in April or May?
ReplyDeleteLet's wait for next week to determine about timing.
DeleteAs per the plan both time and price have hit!!!
ReplyDeleteSCMarch 20, 2023 at 8:12 AM
"DRIP coming down as anticipated. I'm expecting $13 DRIP in 2 or 3 weeks.
SPX should rally for a few weeks with volatility VIX turned down at $30.
Even Oil will likely bounce.
Then April massive......"
Then in April massive what ?
ReplyDeleteMassive dump on the spx sc ?
I am looking for 3950 then above 4200 I think at some point end of May beginning of June. We're gonna get smashed into the basement possibly. Thi subway thirty seven hundred thirty five hundred who the h*** knows
DeleteMakes sense Louis! Next week is critical as to whether the rally extends with some pullback here into next week.
DeleteSC ... any thoughts on ocgn ? We are at 70 cents now... down from 4 bucks
ReplyDeleteOCGN had been under pressure with the public health emergency ending next month in May. However the timing is ripening and with that event soon out of the way, the next phases of the pandemic will continue...
DeleteMy Covid indicator hasn't budged. Currently at 782,000 and holding solid. Clearly from the indicator Covid fears haven't abated at all.
I will be talking about all this a lot more, I expect, soon.
For OCGN specifically I think when a contract is reached it will change the picture substantially. Remember Mexico has authorized their vaccine Covaxin already and the WHO has approved it. A contract next!
DeleteOcugen developing inhalable vaccines!
Delete"Ocugen is currently developing a novel mucosal vaccine platform that includes OCU500, a bivalent COVID-19 inhaled vaccine; OCU510, a seasonal quadrivalent flu inhaled vaccine; and OCU520, a combination quadrivalent seasonal flu and bivalent COVID-19 inhaled vaccine. The OCU500 series grants Ocugen a distinct product candidate profile status that could significantly impact major global health obstacles and maximize the Company’s opportunity to serve broader patient markets. For the 2022 to 2023 flu season, in the United States alone, more than 50% of the population above six months of age received a seasonal flu shot, representing a market size of more than 170 million doses."
One thing about April is that it tends to not be a bad month for markets.
ReplyDelete"Then April massive......"
DeleteSo is the market going to dump in april or no ?
Thanks
This is the pivotal week so let's see
DeleteApril Fool's Day in Canada was no joke for Canadians. Carbon tax skyrockets!
ReplyDelete"The fuel charge is rising by 30 per cent from $50 per tonne of emissions to $65 on April 1."
No joke, you're telling me. As of March, my home gas bill has a 20% carbon tax tacked onto it. Incremental increases will be until 2030. I can't imaging what it will cost in the future. Everything we buy that is transported is paying this tax. This tax is generating inflation.
DeleteYet, there has been no effect on lowering carbon emissions. I think people are starting to figure it out. This has been Canada's biggest tax grab diquised as being good for the environment. What a joke. Trudeau must go
DeleteGold is heading to 2450....
ReplyDeleteSami,
ReplyDelete"Then April massive......"
The earnings will dictate the direction, nobody knows the direction here, take it day by day!
Thank you for your words!
Delete
ReplyDeleteSeems like vix is headed to 10 at this rate
....
Lol
VIX 15 area to watch trendline.
DeleteSC,
DeleteIs VIX set to break up out of trend line (ie over 35) after 15 hit?
Right now volatility being suppressed by CB fuckery (prop SVIX/crush UVIX). Shortly should blow up in their faces.
Would appreciate updated volatility chart when you have time
Banks win again, wonderful.
ReplyDelete"JPMorgan Chase posts record revenue on higher interest rates; shares jump 7%"
SC, the trend line is 17
ReplyDeleteOk volatility update coming up next.
ReplyDeleteOil I do believe is still in a longer decline. Currently bouncing but not for much longer. The trend is down.
ReplyDeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete