Oil drillers are ridiculously cheap considering the inflationary environment and current Oil crisis. RIG is primed for a run and could be an outperformer this year.
Daily
market is stuck between --SPX-4700 to 4800---just grinding out!
better to sit in cash and wait for the extremes--how long can sector rotation last for---I don't know --no volatility ---no capital games --Covid - is all over NYC --slowing the reopening trade ---eventually --it will break out of this range--Cash is king!
Both GUSH and RIG are great, but RIG is likely the better performer early on. Holding RIG for January then swap into GUSH for February may be the best strategy.
SC, Any thoughts for UVXY? I think oil and bitcoin should go down first follow by UVXY popup but it seems oil keeps going up. But market needs correction at some point. what do you think?
Whereas last year there were few setups in UVXY. In 2022 we will see many good setups in UVXY. It's different than 2020. Rather than one big spike UVXY can spike 3 times this year. Less in magnitude but just as profitable.
So just waiting for the setup. February and March are key months. We should have more details on timing soon.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. On 12/27, you said we could see $10, even $7. Do you think the $7 will happen in January or little pop-up in January then down to $10-$7 February then bigger popup later?
December 27, 2021 at 6:14 AM UVXY could see a little pop soon but expect we will see $10 or under soon. $7 or $8 is possible. It's early.
UVXY ---not moving-- if any thing lower ---they bought the hats on the exchange for DOW Jones 37000---fed minutes is 2pm---we should sell off to below SPX 4750---But yesterday at the end of day--- they walked it up again --- we are like Canada now ---no shorting permitted----the fed controls the market --no volatility at this time--I would love to see a break down--sector rotation--thats it!
Yesterday's 100 point SPX dip is too small to be of any concern. Much like Crocodile Dundee that's not a dip, I'll show you a dip. 300 to 400 points is a dip. We can see this in a few weeks.
Right now we are in the spreading phase of Omicron. That's why no real concern yet. Once the cases get high then yes any bad news on Omicron will lead to market plummet.
thanks SC...I expect volatility to pick up from end of January...so indeed few weeks of sideways-higher is possible. However, will crude perform well during the correction in stocks? Isn't it better to wait for correction to pan out before entering energy stocks?
The market goes up trying to find the end of the pandemic. However, it will prove to be more elusive than that. For example when is the pandemic end point? When cases peak? When cases are low? In the US Covid? Global Covid?
For our purposes of market timing the pandemic end point is when it is too frightening to leave the house... The Omicron will be everywhere. Walls, doorknobs everything covered. Even the air outside will be seemingly filled with microbes.
AMC performs particularly well in a pandemic. The lockdowns are like telling a child not to something. As soon as they can go to the theater they do. In some cases schools closed. Where do they go? Going to the movies is more fun than going to school. Escaping reality is the whole point of a movie and this becomes very appealing in a pandemic and bored of Netflix.
Yes I make comparisons from previous market events. The same patterns and behavior are reoccurring. For example a few years back I had made a comparison between the Hang Seng parabola and crash which I had used as a model to identify that XIV was in a parabola and would crash to zero.
Identify the most profitable trends and events and develop a plan to trade those trends both short and long. Silver in 2011 was most active, and the hot trade at that time.
Oil is active now with the inflation theme.
Volatility is the biggest trend and is approaching the main event. More money will be made in volatility than anything else.
We have been doing more to identify stocks recently. Stock picking has been a profitable strategy. Index trading is relatively less interesting. What I see is that index traders are having to use more leverage to catch smaller movement. A recipe for disaster.
DWAC may be too high here. Financing being done at $33.60. What I suspect is that they are financing in the market. Sell or short and then cover at $33.60. That's why for now the stock is capped for now.
AMC I have a very specific plan. AMC is working on forming the low now. Every week the weekly chart is getting stronger and so it should turn up within 30 days and quick to the upside. The charts are coming with the technicals.
"Real-world data from the United Kingdom has found that two vaccine doses are 52% effective at preventing hospitalization 25 weeks after receiving the second shot, according to data from the U.K. Health Security Agency
Two-doses of Pfizer's or Moderna's vaccines are only about 10% effective at preventing infection from omicron 20 weeks after the second dose, according to the U.K. data"
"Real-world data from the United Kingdom has found that two vaccine doses are 52% effective at preventing hospitalization 25 weeks after receiving the second shot,
so the conclusion is Pfizer and Moderna----Does not work???
"Real-world data from the United Kingdom has found that two vaccine doses are 52% effective at preventing hospitalization 25 weeks after receiving the second shot,
so the conclusion is Pfizer and Moderna----Does not work???
Bought RIG $3.05. I've loaded up on this stock.
ReplyDeleteI have a large position as well. $5.50 to $6.00 would be nice. Kicking myself for selling xle...
DeleteAlthough GUSH also looks good this is where RIG can outperform. I think RIG will run harder early whereas GUSH looks better later.
ReplyDeleteAlso I have a position in the Aug 19th $5.00 Calls.
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeletemarket is stuck between --SPX-4700 to 4800---just grinding out!
better to sit in cash and wait for the extremes--how long can sector rotation last for---I don't know --no volatility ---no capital games --Covid - is all over NYC --slowing the reopening trade ---eventually --it will break out of this range--Cash is king!
Maybe this will pop the bubble:
ReplyDeleteNEW Covid variant out of Cameroon detected in France. Apparently has 30% hospitalization rate.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.24.21268174v1
Didn’t SC say something about how all ‘bad’ variants come out of Africa??
Where are you getting the 30% hospitalization rate from?
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteKodak is due for a pop here???
It did get a little oversold on weekly
DeleteFear will come from the Omicron. Simply waiting as it spreads. They say mild but it will become "deadly".
ReplyDeleteNow spread has become more aggressive.
"The U.S. has reported a record single-day number of daily Covid cases, with more than 1 million new infections."
ReplyDeleteRemember in 2020 when we were talking about the fear that 1,000 cases would cause. Now 1 Million!
DeleteAt this rate everyone will have Covid
ReplyDeleteBought AMC $25.90.
ReplyDeleteRIG/GUSH going bonkers!
ReplyDeleteThis $6 RIG target looks like it can hit sooner. About 8 weeks by March from one Cycle I use.
DeleteRIG still super cheap! Hot trade!!
ReplyDeleteRIG 200 average on daily is $5.63. Plan to take some profit at that level.
ReplyDeleteGood plan👍👍
DeleteBoth GUSH and RIG are great, but RIG is likely the better performer early on. Holding RIG for January then swap into GUSH for February may be the best strategy.
ReplyDeleteRIG Calls for January the swap into XLE Calls for February.
DeleteAMC came down and as planned I'm building my position. AMC now $25. Next target $70.
ReplyDeleteSCDecember 20, 2021 at 5:53 AM
"There probably will be one more chance for AMC under $25, but with the price action last week the bottom is likely in place."
SCDecember 21, 2021 at 9:27 AM
"The weekly still hasn't turned up yet. That's why I took profits. A better entry under $25 should be possible."
SC,
ReplyDeleteAny thoughts for UVXY? I think oil and bitcoin should go down first follow by UVXY popup but it seems oil keeps going up. But market needs correction at some point. what do you think?
Whereas last year there were few setups in UVXY. In 2022 we will see many good setups in UVXY. It's different than 2020. Rather than one big spike UVXY can spike 3 times this year. Less in magnitude but just as profitable.
DeleteSo just waiting for the setup. February and March are key months. We should have more details on timing soon.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. On 12/27, you said we could see $10, even $7. Do you think the $7 will happen in January or little pop-up in January then down to $10-$7 February then bigger popup later?
ReplyDeleteDecember 27, 2021 at 6:14 AM
UVXY could see a little pop soon but expect we will see $10 or under soon. $7 or $8 is possible. It's early.
I'll review UVXY but I think still some time away.
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteUVXY ---not moving-- if any thing lower ---they bought the hats on the exchange for DOW Jones 37000---fed minutes is 2pm---we should sell off to below SPX 4750---But yesterday at the end of day--- they walked it up again --- we are like Canada now ---no shorting permitted----the fed controls the market --no volatility at this time--I would love to see a break down--sector rotation--thats it!
Bought AMC $23.70.
ReplyDeleteyikes
ReplyDeleteAMC is getting taken to the woodsheds today
Be careful ---these memes are getting the lunch kicked out of them!
ReplyDeletelook at them all!
Too Much omni--American express and Blackrock ---telling people to work from Home
AMC is a must. This is a thing of beauty!
ReplyDeleteAMC update coming!
ReplyDeleteSPX down a little this week, but may be up a couple weeks next. Then after that a heavier down week.
ReplyDeleteHow low can amc go and not invalidate your upside target?
ReplyDeleteThe previous low at $20 is important. I think it'll hold or not see much lower in any case.
DeleteThank you!
DeleteI think we got into this amc too early
ReplyDeleteTomorrow or Friday. Good luck!
DeleteA little Sami but ok. This is good price and timing. The hard part is waiting. The fun will come..
DeleteSC, what is the time frame for AMC to take off?
Delete30 days it goes nuts
DeleteI'll have everything in detail in the AMC update.
DeleteThanks SC, makes sense, since AMC seems to do well on bigger market declines.
Deletewe shold bottom today!
ReplyDeleteyou think we've bottomed and now head higher to new all time highs? Or is this a temp bottom, we retrace a bit, then continue lower?
Deleteturn dates--today and the 1/10
ReplyDeleteRIG performing well. Several resistances converging. Trendline resistance at $3.50 and 50 day average at $3.60. Might see this tested tomorrow/Monday.
ReplyDeleteYesterday's 100 point SPX dip is too small to be of any concern. Much like Crocodile Dundee that's not a dip, I'll show you a dip. 300 to 400 points is a dip. We can see this in a few weeks.
ReplyDeleteRight now we are in the spreading phase of Omicron. That's why no real concern yet. Once the cases get high then yes any bad news on Omicron will lead to market plummet.
ReplyDeletethanks SC...I expect volatility to pick up from end of January...so indeed few weeks of sideways-higher is possible. However, will crude perform well during the correction in stocks? Isn't it better to wait for correction to pan out before entering energy stocks?
DeleteYes agree later in January is interesting and into March looks good for a high. It will be shaky though. There could be some setbacks for Crude too.
DeleteThe market goes up trying to find the end of the pandemic. However, it will prove to be more elusive than that. For example when is the pandemic end point? When cases peak? When cases are low? In the US Covid? Global Covid?
ReplyDeleteWe're probably half way into the Pandemic.
You can see how 2022 will be marked by confusion and volatility.
DeleteAll sorts of new variants can pop up at any point... possibly more lethal...
ReplyDeleteWhat a shit show...
For our purposes of market timing the pandemic end point is when it is too frightening to leave the house... The Omicron will be everywhere. Walls, doorknobs everything covered. Even the air outside will be seemingly filled with microbes.
DeleteSc do we still hit 4850 first
ReplyDeleteSPX getting a lot more shaky but yes it can still advance.
DeleteDWAC down a little today. Jan 6th anniversary. Biden says Trump was bad boy.
ReplyDelete"Biden urges Americans to defend the right to vote, condemns Trump election lies on Jan. 6 anniversary"
DWAC suddenly spikes!
DeleteAMC performs particularly well in a pandemic. The lockdowns are like telling a child not to something. As soon as they can go to the theater they do. In some cases schools closed. Where do they go? Going to the movies is more fun than going to school. Escaping reality is the whole point of a movie and this becomes very appealing in a pandemic and bored of Netflix.
ReplyDeletewhat if they ask all theaters to shut down?
Deletewhen covid gets bad?
That could happen later on. From higher levels that sounds like it could present a good opportunity to reload. First let's see higher.
DeleteTook some profit sold DWAC $58.00.
ReplyDeleteJanuary 6th UNO reverse lol
DeleteGME surges, AMC pop after hours! We're off to great start to the year!!
ReplyDeleteSc
ReplyDeleteDo you just find charts from the past that are similar to a stocks recent movement and that way you determine the path ?
What's your methedology for trading ?
Yes I make comparisons from previous market events. The same patterns and behavior are reoccurring. For example a few years back I had made a comparison between the Hang Seng parabola and crash which I had used as a model to identify that XIV was in a parabola and would crash to zero.
DeleteIdentify the most profitable trends and events and develop a plan to trade those trends both short and long. Silver in 2011 was most active, and the hot trade at that time.
Oil is active now with the inflation theme.
Volatility is the biggest trend and is approaching the main event. More money will be made in volatility than anything else.
We have been doing more to identify stocks recently. Stock picking has been a profitable strategy. Index trading is relatively less interesting. What I see is that index traders are having to use more leverage to catch smaller movement. A recipe for disaster.
DeleteSo uvxy will be the money maker this year? You still think it will go to $10 or below and we'll have 3 opportunities for spike up?
ReplyDeleteYes action in volatility this year but different than 2020. Whipsaws likely to characterize 2022.
Deletesc: do you see again 4800 - 4850 of SPX around mid january ( 15 - 17 ) before a 300 point drop?
ReplyDeleteMany thanks
Although SPX is getting tired still likely to head higher, but little upside.
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteare you buying AMC here or waiting for 20?
Nice trade on DWAC!
I did a little flip and reduced my avg on AMC. Holding for the big show.
DeleteDWAC may be too high here. Financing being done at $33.60. What I suspect is that they are financing in the market. Sell or short and then cover at $33.60. That's why for now the stock is capped for now.
DeleteAmc --bought for a scalp--22.50
ReplyDeleteSC.. what is the time line for the OCGN Target $11
ReplyDeleteand AMC target : 70 ?
Thanks
AMC I have a very specific plan.
DeleteAMC is working on forming the low now. Every week the weekly chart is getting stronger and so it should turn up within 30 days and quick to the upside. The charts are coming with the technicals.
OCGN could take a little longer and could see lower but XBI is looking to be close to a bottom. OCGN should be near a low by January month end.
DeleteI have another Covid play that I will explain too. This one with big target.
I'm going long here
ReplyDeleteMe too, 1/4 position.
DeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteNDX is coming back ---to reality---line in sand SPX 4660---lets see what tomorrow brings!
I will average in tomorrow!
"Over 50% of Europe’s population will be infected with omicron in the next 2 months, WHO says"
ReplyDelete"Real-world data from the United Kingdom has found that two vaccine doses are 52% effective at preventing hospitalization 25 weeks after receiving the second shot, according to data from the U.K. Health Security Agency
ReplyDeleteTwo-doses of Pfizer's or Moderna's vaccines are only about 10% effective at preventing infection from omicron 20 weeks after the second dose, according to the U.K. data"
"Real-world data from the United Kingdom has found that two vaccine doses are 52% effective at preventing hospitalization 25 weeks after receiving the second shot,
ReplyDeleteso the conclusion is Pfizer and Moderna----Does not work???
so Pfizer and Moderna
"Real-world data from the United Kingdom has found that two vaccine doses are 52% effective at preventing hospitalization 25 weeks after receiving the second shot,
ReplyDeleteso the conclusion is Pfizer and Moderna----Does not work???
Please advise?
Pfizer originally was touted as 95% effective. Moderna 94% effective.
DeleteWe can see that they are clearly "ineffective".
Meanwhile Omicron is about to go exponential.
sc,
ReplyDeleteare you still on shorting DWAC here --exit point 36?
I'm not shorting DWAC but I'd like to get in cheaper.
DeleteIf it goes higher I may take a position in Puts.
DeleteSC,cpi release Wednesday January 12 at 8:30am. Market tanks if inflation hot? What's your take?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/2022/01_sched.htm
Oil has been heating up but still Oil is lower than October high. So maybe the CPI comes in a little lighter than people think.
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteThank you!
sc,
ReplyDeletewhat about Kodak????
Weekly is coming off oversold. Let's keep an eye on it.
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteUVXY is getting cheap----I am wondering ---I am hearing rumors of a drop after this run into the end of the month????
New chart posted!
ReplyDelete