There should be a counter trend rally next week starting on Monday---to Thursday or Friday---depending upon where we bottom--sometime in early February---we can get below--SPX 4200 maybe lower--Tech stocks will take most of the beaten---volatility will be begin and even SC knows this--It matters what the fed says next week!
A bounce is coming but we can still see a little lower first. 4,300 would be fitting. This is the prior low of October. Also SPX was above the 50 day average by about 150 points. Now at the 200 day. So it would make sense that SPX undercuts the 200 day by the same amount.
VIX closed outside it's bollinger band 4 days in a row, SPX ripe for a bounce. SC what do you think - SPX bounce early next week for a couple days then down into 4300?
My December 18th call for 10% SPX drop occurred. Last year SPX was up 21%. Inflation came in at 7% for 2021. 21% less 10% and 7% gives a real inflation adjusted return of only 4%.
SCDecember 18, 2021 at 11:17 AM
"SPX is probably getting closer to a 10% drop.
When we consider the math in more depth this looks more serious. Before we did not have to include inflation. It was negligible. Now we have considerable inflation.
Let's assume inflation is also 10%. A 10% drop in SPX becomes a 20% drop in real terms inflation adjusted."
Trendline support and 50 weekly confluence at $85 GUSH.
ReplyDeleteVolatility actually narrowing in this chart, but it is part of a larger broadening pattern, which is leading to explosive...
ReplyDeleteAre you still holding on to ocgn and amc ?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Yes but remember we've been waiting for OCGN to come down and looking to build a position in OCGN later.
DeleteAMC - they said they was diamond
DeleteThe market is testing AMC shareholders. So I think the only issue here is that it may base over a longer period to absorb any sellers. We'll see.
Deleteamc---closer to 16 is a buy fills the gap---but the market needs to bottom!
ReplyDeleteSc can u pl give road map for spy or uvxy
ReplyDeleteYes will do. Yes I have a plan for UVXY. The first UVXY setup for the year is coming.
DeleteSC - Are we expecting new highs for SPX or a retest of the highs?
DeleteYes SPX will put in a bounce soon. Then drop again.
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteThere should be a counter trend rally next week starting on Monday---to Thursday or Friday---depending upon where we bottom--sometime in early February---we can get below--SPX 4200 maybe lower--Tech stocks will take most of the beaten---volatility will be begin and even SC knows this--It matters what the fed says next week!
How high the bounce sc
ReplyDeleteOn this expiry $1.3 trillion of options is expiring in stock. This is the second highest in history.
ReplyDeleteSee I told you when I had looked all I saw was an ocean of Calls.
A bounce is coming but we can still see a little lower first. 4,300 would be fitting. This is the prior low of October. Also SPX was above the 50 day average by about 150 points. Now at the 200 day. So it would make sense that SPX undercuts the 200 day by the same amount.
ReplyDeleteVIX closed outside it's bollinger band 4 days in a row, SPX ripe for a bounce. SC what do you think - SPX bounce early next week for a couple days then down into 4300?
DeleteHard to say exactly but that does make sense
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteaccording to the experts there is a wall at SPX 4600 for the short term
SPX is at 200 day so bounce possible
DeleteIn December I had suggested 10% drop for SPX.
ReplyDeleteIn the new year.
DeleteGood call as usual!!
DeleteBought KODK at $4.05.
ReplyDeleteKODK is oversold on daily and weekly to the extent that a bounce over the 200 day at $4.92 is to be expected. Bounce into the $5's.
DeleteGUSH coming down nicely for the next swing.
ReplyDeleteAMC in the green. You know it hasn't traded badly. In December AMC was $20, and only a couple lower now with SPX down 400 off the high.
ReplyDeleteOil is super easy to make money though. That's our bread and butter. Every swing hits. Energy was the top performing sector in entire market 2021!
ReplyDeleteOil is preparing for Big swings. I am getting ready to clean house in Oil... Oil volatility will be outrageous this year!!!
ReplyDeleteThe fact is this is stupidly profitable to trade with Biden actively selling out of the country's oil reserves.
ReplyDeleteGush at $85 is xle 58ish?
ReplyDeleteYes looks good!
DeleteMy December 18th call for 10% SPX drop occurred. Last year SPX was up 21%. Inflation came in at 7% for 2021. 21% less 10% and 7% gives a real inflation adjusted return of only 4%.
ReplyDeleteSCDecember 18, 2021 at 11:17 AM
"SPX is probably getting closer to a 10% drop.
When we consider the math in more depth this looks more serious. Before we did not have to include inflation. It was negligible. Now we have considerable inflation.
Let's assume inflation is also 10%. A 10% drop in SPX becomes a 20% drop in real terms inflation adjusted."
What's the target for spx bottom ?
ReplyDeleteLet's look at the next chart to explain.
DeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete