Saturday, January 22, 2022
$NDX - Bounce Incoming!
Nasdaq is trading similar to the way SPX did in 1998. Technically the charts are identical. NDX on Friday tested the 50 week average which is likely going to act as support. Tech earnings this week are going to put the index back on solid footing, and in coming weeks NDX is poised to retest the highs due February month-end by this model.
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Here I make a comparison between current NDX weekly and SPX daily from the past in 1998.
ReplyDeleteSo you can see how I use models about future price and timing. Since I've been a trader forever I use Cycles and model Market events from the past that are technically the same.
ReplyDeleteAnother point I'd like to make here is to keep it as simple. NDX is touching the 50 week average. That is support.
ReplyDeleteFed meeting Wednesday Jan 26 a catalyst event?
ReplyDeleteThis week the NDX will likely struggle into month end. In this model the next bar is actually red. For this week stabilize and build support then February melt up.
DeleteThe Fed is likely to say that with the recent cooling in markets, a rate hike is not necessary yet. This will provide that footing for the February run up. While not a strong week ahead yes I agree with you.
Thanks SC, cycles show bottom this or next week. Watch the end of this week for potential turning point
DeleteIt appears we are alternating months. January was bear. February is bull.
ReplyDeleteI've seen some cycle work that shows a meltdown starting March...
ReplyDeleteDo you agree sc ? Is that when your planning to position for volitility ?
This year is going to be rocky, very different than last year which was a trending year. March is interesting for volatility as it's the opposite of the 2020 SPX low. There are a few spots that we can look for volatility this year. Volatility occurs either in a fast drop or in a stair step decline near the bottom as hope is lost. Suspect the latter.
DeleteWhat's the price target for uvxy?
ReplyDelete$18 UVXY was targeted for this pop. I'll look at the numbers
DeleteWhen we get the bounce, how low do you anticipate uvxy going?
Delete$10 or under
DeleteSc
ReplyDeleteYou never went long UVXY yet---12- to 17--it needs to get under 13 to buy again-correct?
UVXY hiting the $18 I was talking about so now I'll review.
DeleteSCJanuary 18, 2022 at 1:25 PM
"UVXY still relatively quiet. However often in these situations it can pop just as SPX gets near to a low. UVXY $18 possible short term."
Uvxy 22ish...
DeleteBought OCGN $3.22.
ReplyDeleteHave been waiting for this last week of January and now starting to nibble. November, December and January were all down months. For February the outlook is better and it can regain all January's loss. $4.50. More interesting later.
DeleteBought ocgn 2.905.
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteamazing---one of the biggest collapses since the start of Covid---and no -one catches it---only the Fed can do this!
SPX 4,300!
ReplyDeleteSCJanuary 21, 2022 at 10:40 AM
"A bounce is coming but we can still see a little lower first. 4,300 would be fitting. This is the prior low of October. Also SPX was above the 50 day average by about 150 points. Now at the 200 day. So it would make sense that SPX undercuts the 200 day by the same amount."
10% down
ReplyDeleteEpic collapse. Capitulation or more to go.
Delete1pm EST was the margin call cut-off. Also, the seasonality for mid-term elections looks interesting. http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/compare/DJIA_Mid_Term_Election_Year.PNG
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteis there a buy here today----Amc---maybe????
I've been buying spy, qqq, iwm and railroads...probably too soon, Wednesday may be the day...
DeleteI’m surprised no one here has mentioned the truckers. 16,000 trucks off the roads in Canada can’t bring goods to the USA....and the 50% of American unvaccinated truckers can’t move into Canada either.
ReplyDeleteRestaurant closures bc no food arriving.
Factories curtailing production bc no parts and materials arriving.
Empty shelves, no parts, medicine shortage.... Trudeau and Biden did this....
I don’t see an SPX bounce until the border opens up again....which shouldn’t take long since stores only have a weeks worth of food before empty.
When unvaccinated can’t get food it’s their problem. When nobody can get food, it’s the government’s problem.
Well said !!
Deletethe pale white horse is in power....we will get smoked in Ukraine if we go in there, Potus needs to be removed. He is dementia done large....
ReplyDeleteXBI worst OS On RSI weekly ever....easily could run to 107 in days....L LABU 15.50
ReplyDeleteWell said sir, VicePotus is a scary thought as well!
ReplyDeleteSelling exhaustion candle. A big one.
ReplyDeleteSaturday comments
https://www.valuetrend.ca/the-market-has-corrected-time-to-buy/
End of Today comments:
https://www.valuetrend.ca/flash-report-key-reversal-day-was-seen-monday/
Remember----using Elliot wave theory--this is wave A down ( 1/12 to 1/24)--600 points--wave B up into Thursday maybe SPX 4500--and then wave C down--it will take 8 days or more and be greater then Wave A down (more then 600 points down ---could be 900 points)
ReplyDeleteThe Fed made their point---they need to control inflation--their is only two ways: raise rates or crash the market!
Holly crap...
ReplyDeleteGhost print on spx 3700
Sorry I mean spy
ReplyDeleteguys ----now you know where the bottom is!
ReplyDeleteRIG $3.80 next. On the way to $5.
ReplyDeleteAdded some RIG Calls.
DeleteGUSH is good and my $85 worked like a charm. However, I think there is one more dip coming to $80. Can't miss the next time. There won't be another chance...
ReplyDeleteFed will do nothing about rates and inflation will hit him so hard...
ReplyDeleteBought RIG 18 March $3.50 Calls. $0.37.
ReplyDeleteMonday could be a low for a bit as yearly options on 21rst was big, trillions, left hole for shorts to hammer gaps yesterday.. could see some buying unless that insane potus starts a war over something that we should have no part of.....
ReplyDeleteBungling Biden might just do it...
DeleteNDX has a hollow candle on weekly. That's bullish for next week.
ReplyDeleteRIG descending triangle chart posted to twitter
ReplyDeleteXLE insanely strong!
ReplyDelete