SPX has been grinding up but it hasn't been enough to get overought. September is a reopening month with US borders scheduled to open on September 21. Can SPX finally muster enough to get overbought? Daily
AMC is more appealing than Gamestop because movies appeal to a wider audience than video games. It's a reopening trade and especially appealing to the masses who want to escape reality when you have the backdrop of economic collapse in pandemic.
We can see that people are receptive to fear. Afraid about everything. No matter what the outcome it is seen as negative. Glass half full. Each crisis leads to something worse.
The volatility is increasing everywhere. We have seen it in other markets this year. It will come to the S&P again.
And we see it in the VIX. Already tested 2008 high last year. A larger move will follow as it breaks that high.
Hi SC, XBI is 2 dollars short of 137.00 target. You had mentioned XBI would hit 137.00 then back down again. Could you elaborate how far down you are looking for, what target you are expecting. I'm a bit confuse when you mention coming covid fear trade. Will XBI & OCGN be a buy again when XBI goes back down?
The main point is that SPX is getting more volatile as it rises. The 2008 drop for SPX was about 56% and SPX dropped 32% in 2020. VIX tested the 80's on both so volatility is rising.
On a 50% drop in SPX expect VIX break out of the 80's to 170.
The "chip shortage" is not believable anymore. New car sales are plummeting. Reason is two fold. Gasoline prices are spiking. Pretty well doubling over the last year. Expect Gasoline to double again short term and up 300 to 400% in a few years. Also the shift to electric cars.
For these reasons car salesman offload their entire inventory. They do this by creating a "shortage".
"Ford’s U.S. sales decline 33% in August as chip shortage devastates auto industry"
The timing of a 50% to 60% drop or more will be interesting. Will the Fed be able to prop up the market through the usual holiday rally, propped up through the 2022 midterms? Thanks SC.
Ever wanted to trade 1987? We will have that opportunity equivalent in VIX. Volatility bull market the biggest of any market currently. The average person has no idea. They do not even know what VIX is hahaha
That would be a dream come true. I was so quite disappointed when I missed out on the 2020 fall, sold my UVXY calls right before they would have run 120x the cost in two weeks...
That's at the end. It'll be clear looking at the Cycle. First we have other events happening. There were requests to talk about the big picture, but yes that's a long time away.
we were looking for a big move up into new highs, the spx --gave in at the end of day--tomorrow--we should get a pop on the market and if that does hold--real support is Spx 4400 in that area---a little fear with president regulations-major companies delaying going back to the office, airline ticket sales forecasts lower--- oil could spike and volatility could spike withy it!
Although I could see some chop next week it still looks ok. SPX is a dog but reopening trades have been strong. I'll be looking to take profits this month of September.
There hasn't been a lot of movement coming off a slow summer, but I am expecting the action to increase. The swings will increase in size but similar price action up and down.
Alright I've been saying since August I had a chart I've been watching and was waiting for the price to come down to a more attractive level. It has and I will be posting the chart shortly.
I was planning to post the charts but it made a reset yesterday. Something is coming I think. Delta didn't generate enough fear so they are getting ready to pull out the bazooka. Planning to post the charts month end...
They are getting ready to ratchet up the pressure. They are making an October push for companies to force vaccination of their employees as a "condition of employment". Not a panic, but fear of the Covid variety.
The Fed can't raise rates and they know it. By creating a problem at the Fed they can end the Fed without having to explain that monetary policy has in fact failed.
Hi, SC, do you have any comments on the semi conductor index? It made an all time high today. Could it be a sector that is finishing its up move? Thank you!
after todays recovery move---did your charts reset again---the volatility is increasing but not showing in the VIX---it looks like the market is trying to pound out a bottom.
Tomorrow is feel good Friday or reversal Friday
Should we hold to Wednesday for the FED meeting --I know you think they are powerless---but I don't see them going away???
DOW down about 5.6% off the highs. FXI down 30% off the highs. Let's get right to the point shall we. Who do you think is winning the trade war? China or USA?
I am guessing this means--- we continue to sell off tomorrow---two days at this level is not a good sign---normally we continue the downtrend--we broke out of the channel ---any insight?
Action is picking up after the slow summer. SPX may grind a little lower in a bad week or even the month of September. But all that is happening is it is just getting choppy. Volatility quite low.
I'm waiting for something else entirely. That was a 5.5% dip in SPX. Tiny. Little volatility.
The only fear worth trading is Covid fear. That is the trade I am looking at next. All the charts and reasoning will be posted. If this plays as I expect it will be extremely profitable.
Investing online has been a main source of income, that's why knowledge plays a very important role in humanity, you don't need to over work yourself for money.All you need is the right information, and you could build your own wealth from the comfort of your home!Binary trading is dependent on timely signals, assets or controlled strategies which when mastered increases chance of winning up to 90%-100% with trading. It’s possible to earn $10,000 to $20,000 trading weekly-monthly, just file a complaint with Mr. Carlos, I had almost given up on everything about binary trading and ever getting my lost funds back, till i met with him, with his help now i have my lost funds back to my bank account and I can now trade successfully with his profitable strategies and software!! Email: investandearnbinaryfx@gmail.com or whatsApp: +1(424)285-0682 or telegram : @IEBINARYFX
SPX just in a consolidation as we wait for the 200 daily moving average to reach current levels. Therefore I'm not looking for volatility until next year. Weekly SPX chart is strong.
SPX so weak it struggles to get overbought.
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteIs this the place to start to look for swoon effect in the market--I still see SPX 4580?
https://tv.gab.com/channel/starcrest/view/how-the-covid-vaccine-destroys-your-61256f39e777d97a1d7d900a
ReplyDeleteThank you Louis.
DeleteSpx should reach 4580 to 4600
ReplyDeleteBy Sept 25
Yes Louis estimate Sept 21. That may be the event.
DeleteFederal reserve meeting is on this day
DeleteOctober always a good time for fear
ReplyDeleteSeptember too. But crashes seem to happen in October.
DeletePlanned trade is coming. Reserving capital for this trade. Price coming down slowly to the entry level. Covid fear trade could be spectacular.
ReplyDeleteWhat Covid fear trade are you talking about ?
DeleteChart coming in September
DeleteAlso Q3 end September 30th
ReplyDeleteAMC has warmed and should be good for a lower high at $60. I have some.
ReplyDeleteAMC is more appealing than Gamestop because movies appeal to a wider audience than video games. It's a reopening trade and especially appealing to the masses who want to escape reality when you have the backdrop of economic collapse in pandemic.
DeleteSC, why do you think about crash? The market is so strong, do you really think about vix 140 to 170?
ReplyDeleteWe can see that people are receptive to fear. Afraid about everything. No matter what the outcome it is seen as negative. Glass half full. Each crisis leads to something worse.
DeleteThe volatility is increasing everywhere. We have seen it in other markets this year. It will come to the S&P again.
And we see it in the VIX. Already tested 2008 high last year. A larger move will follow as it breaks that high.
I'll explain more in the big picture charts.
yea.. but that move may not come for quite some time. VIX testing 2008 high was probably once in a ten year event..
DeleteYes that's right it will take time.
DeleteHi SC, XBI is 2 dollars short of 137.00 target. You had mentioned XBI would hit 137.00 then back down again. Could you elaborate how far down you are looking for, what target you are expecting. I'm a bit confuse when you mention coming covid fear trade. Will XBI & OCGN be a buy again when XBI goes back down?
ReplyDeleteThe upper resistance is $140 XBI. $137 start looking for a turn down. $120 support.
DeleteYes from $120 I am expecting bull run in XBI. This is clearly defined and very helpful in timing not just Biotech but many markets.
For OCGN it'll be close but I am expecting a slightly different turn pattern, but yes OCGN follows Biotech.
I am waiting for the vix big chat
ReplyDeleteThe main point is that SPX is getting more volatile as it rises. The 2008 drop for SPX was about 56% and SPX dropped 32% in 2020. VIX tested the 80's on both so volatility is rising.
ReplyDeleteOn a 50% drop in SPX expect VIX break out of the 80's to 170.
Is this happening in the next year or we may need to wait another 5 years plus ?
DeleteWhat China sees is the US army running from Afghanistan and a weak President. It may be advantageous for them to attack during this term.
DeleteCertain events have to happen first anyway so that takes time
DeleteGUSH showing strength off the 200 dma!
ReplyDeleteSo, SC, the spx is going to drop 50% again?
ReplyDeleteFrom the Cycle yes
DeleteHi SC,
ReplyDeleteget you post a graph for spx targets?
Yes the SPX is coming. Everything is shown there.
ReplyDeleteI share your concerns about our weak President SC. Sadly, anything's possible with this bunch.
ReplyDeleteThe "chip shortage" is not believable anymore. New car sales are plummeting. Reason is two fold. Gasoline prices are spiking. Pretty well doubling over the last year. Expect Gasoline to double again short term and up 300 to 400% in a few years. Also the shift to electric cars.
ReplyDeleteFor these reasons car salesman offload their entire inventory. They do this by creating a "shortage".
"Ford’s U.S. sales decline 33% in August as chip shortage devastates auto industry"
The timing of a 50% to 60% drop or more will be interesting. Will the Fed be able to prop up the market through the usual holiday rally, propped up through the 2022 midterms? Thanks SC.
ReplyDeleteEver wanted to trade 1987? We will have that opportunity equivalent in VIX. Volatility bull market the biggest of any market currently. The average person has no idea.
ReplyDeleteThey do not even know what VIX is hahaha
That would be a dream come true. I was so quite disappointed when I missed out on the 2020 fall, sold my UVXY calls right before they would have run 120x the cost in two weeks...
DeleteWhen??
DeleteThis year?
Next year?
Yes extremely lucrative trading volatility Joe.
DeleteThat's at the end. It'll be clear looking at the Cycle. First we have other events happening. There were requests to talk about the big picture, but yes that's a long time away.
DeleteJust a preview about what is to come. Years away though.
Delete"AMC Theaters announce new Labor Day weekend admissions record"
ReplyDeleteAdded AMC $46.50.
ReplyDeleteSeptember is a significant reopening month. USA is planning to open borders Canada and Mexico on September 21st.
DeleteAMC could put in a lower high in the $60's. With economy in ruin there's not much else to do but watch movies.
Can you please post the spx chart ?
ReplyDeleteI will Sami. And I have something coming.
Deletesami,
ReplyDeletewe would all like to see this --but it will not be formulated to certain parameters come to lite ----fear in the market ---we are not there yet.
we are getting closer to it---we still can SPX 4600------there is no fear yet!
sc,
ReplyDeleteno comments today???
To put in perspective SPX down 40 points over 4 days. 0.87%. Very little movement.
ReplyDeleteMy theory has proven correct. Some time ago I had said that I will look at SPX once a week.
AMC still good despite GME demise. Compare MACD on both with daily charts. Big difference. AMC is clear winner.
ReplyDeleteGUSH looks good. Similarly no issues in the daily chart.
ReplyDeleteGUSH run to $85.
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeletewe were looking for a big move up into new highs,
the spx --gave in at the end of day--tomorrow--we should get a pop on the market and if that does hold--real support is Spx 4400 in that area---a little fear with president regulations-major companies delaying going back to the office, airline ticket sales forecasts lower--- oil could spike and volatility could spike withy it!
Any ideas here?
Last few tests of 50 day have been mid month. Last small pullback did not make it back to 50 day. I'm expecting 4420
DeleteAlthough I could see some chop next week it still looks ok. SPX is a dog but reopening trades have been strong. I'll be looking to take profits this month of September.
ReplyDeleteThere hasn't been a lot of movement coming off a slow summer, but I am expecting the action to increase. The swings will increase in size but similar price action up and down.
ReplyDeleteAlright I've been saying since August I had a chart I've been watching and was waiting for the price to come down to a more attractive level. It has and I will be posting the chart shortly.
ReplyDeletewill we see spx below 4000 this year?
ReplyDeletethanks
I'm going to say no. As slow as SPX is moving currently it is unlikely to see even a 10% correction.
DeleteWhat I am saying is we should not set our sights too high. We will get to homerun trades again but for now we should aim to hit singles and doubles.
Delete4600 will come real quick maybe 4650
ReplyDeleteThanks Louis, let's see if it pops this month.
DeleteAMC has been up 5 weeks straight. May see a down week soon. Maybe next week.
ReplyDeleteNext high should be 4600 to 4615 i doubt we break 4230
ReplyDeleteI meant to say 4420
ReplyDeleteAlso note if we get into the 4600 area I will be selling and I'm not buying massively
ReplyDeletelouie,
ReplyDeleteSpx---4420-----could come tomorrow---we will see?
Well I had mentioned AMC was due for a down week. It is getting a little action to the downside but you know the week is early.
ReplyDeleteBorders due to reopen in 1 week. Because we are now in the late stage of reopening we are going to see better swings.
ReplyDeleteLet's see if we get a pop into the reopening. Then it may be a sell the news event...
ReplyDeleteThere is a possibility that we go down to 4334 but if that happens if that happens I'll be a big buyer in my opinion
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI would definitely be out on the move up I believe we go up end of September into beginning of October I'd be a Seller
ReplyDeleteI doubt we go lower than 4380
ReplyDeleteYes it could carry higher after the reopening too. GUSH up big today!
ReplyDeleteFirst week of October may turn out to be the turn timing Louis
ReplyDeleteProbably oct 5 to 6th
ReplyDeleteI was planning to post the charts but it made a reset yesterday. Something is coming I think. Delta didn't generate enough fear so they are getting ready to pull out the bazooka. Planning to post the charts month end...
ReplyDeleteWhat's that smallpox these fucking freaks should be hung for treason
ReplyDeleteThey are getting ready to ratchet up the pressure. They are making an October push for companies to force vaccination of their employees as a "condition of employment". Not a panic, but fear of the Covid variety.
ReplyDeleteThis is the beginning of the end for the Fed.
ReplyDeleteThe Fed can't raise rates and they know it. By creating a problem at the Fed they can end the Fed without having to explain that monetary policy has in fact failed.
ReplyDeleteHi, SC, do you have any comments on the semi conductor index? It made an all time high today. Could it be a sector that is finishing its up move? Thank you!
ReplyDeleteIt's a good point. Still strength there. Some softness in the markets but strength in leading sectors. Markets still in a bull phase.
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteafter todays recovery move---did your charts reset again---the volatility is increasing but not showing in the VIX---it looks like the market is trying to pound out a bottom.
Tomorrow is feel good Friday or reversal Friday
Should we hold to Wednesday for the FED meeting --I know you think they are powerless---but I don't see them going away???
I have a Cycle that shows where volatility will spike. Same charts I use for XBI. It will be fun. Months away though from that volatility.
DeleteI am raising cash to ready for a big trade
ReplyDeleteBuying the dip?
DeleteRemember this chart from March 8th.
ReplyDeleteShanghai Weekly at resistance
"China took a swoon last night. That's the market's next problem now that fretting about bonds is over for the time being. FXI drop."
https://twitter.com/CyclicalAnalyst/status/1369012333817651204?s=19
The "China Dip"
ReplyDeleteFXI has dropped this year from $54 to $38. 30% drop.
ReplyDeleteSPX 4% off it's highs
ReplyDeleteNow traders are getting all worried over China and Evergrande. I think we can see more from China this year but this is just not that serious.
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteAmazing----no one caught this drop---breakdown ---politicians and wall street ----that was a big move and we missed it.
Let's see what the future brings
DOW down about 5.6% off the highs. FXI down 30% off the highs. Let's get right to the point shall we. Who do you think is winning the trade war? China or USA?
ReplyDeleteOr from February DOW is up.
DeleteThe DOW 50 weekly is about 1,000 lower though at 32,500.
ReplyDeleteDead cat bounce today😺😺
ReplyDeleteGUSH may see $65 but looks good to $85.
ReplyDeleteSc / Deena
ReplyDeleteI am guessing this means--- we continue to sell off tomorrow---two days at this level is not a good sign---normally we continue the downtrend--we broke out of the channel ---any insight?
Action is picking up after the slow summer. SPX may grind a little lower in a bad week or even the month of September. But all that is happening is it is just getting choppy. Volatility quite low.
DeleteSeptember everyone returns from summer vacations and the action picks up.
ReplyDeleteMarket starts to get choppy first. Volatility comes later.
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeletelooks like three days up here!
any opinion--or just waiting for the right move?
I'm waiting for something else entirely. That was a 5.5% dip in SPX. Tiny. Little volatility.
ReplyDeleteThe only fear worth trading is Covid fear. That is the trade I am looking at next. All the charts and reasoning will be posted. If this plays as I expect it will be extremely profitable.
sc,
ReplyDeleteso your looking for a pharma move?
Worse....
Deletesc,
ReplyDeletethe debt ceiling???
It's Covid as the main fear. China and debt ceiling and these other fears do help to set the tone.
DeleteBecause the government is making a vaccination push soon they need Covid fear and lots of it.
All explain everything and how it relates to the initial panic last year on 2020.
The WHO: Got fooled again.
Deletehttps://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/expert-answers/covid-variant/faq-20505779
The Who: Won't Get Fooled Again:
Deletehttps://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SHhrZgojY1Q
Lyrics:
https://genius.com/The-who-wont-get-fooled-again-lyrics
Sc when will you post the s&p chart ?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Yes I will soon
DeleteSC, do you think we are going to a new ATH?
ReplyDeleteYes it will, but it is getting tougher. Momentum is starting to fade
DeleteGUSH showing a lot of strength. Let's raise that target to $90.
ReplyDeleteThe markets are still ok. The difference now is you will see some dips and selloffs as it goes up.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking oct 6 or 8 top
ReplyDeleteSC / Sami
ReplyDeleteSPX---4600---should be near a topping formation.
the fed is trying to hold this up!
lou,
ReplyDeleteyou the Man!
Took profits GUSH $82.30.
ReplyDeleteGUSH may see some more chop though likely heading higher. So there may be a possibility of reloading lower.
DeleteInvesting online has been a main source of income, that's why knowledge plays a very important role in humanity, you don't need to over work yourself for money.All you need is the right information, and you could build your own wealth from the comfort of your home!Binary trading is dependent on timely signals, assets or controlled strategies which when mastered increases chance of winning up to 90%-100% with trading. It’s possible to earn $10,000 to $20,000 trading weekly-monthly, just file a complaint with Mr. Carlos, I had almost given up on everything about binary trading and ever getting my lost funds back, till i met with him, with his help now i have my lost funds back to my bank account and I can now trade successfully with his profitable strategies and software!! Email: investandearnbinaryfx@gmail.com or whatsApp: +1(424)285-0682 or telegram : @IEBINARYFX
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteI was looking into the information that was posted and then-removed
can I that post back--just want to write down the information!
ReplyDeleteDunn6sterSeptember 27, 2021 at 8:54 AM
sc,
I was looking into the information that was posted and then-removed
can I get that post back--just want to write down the information!
I was interested!
Oil shows strength although the big splash still a few months away.
ReplyDeleteSo expect one more pullback later this year to enter Oil trades prior to the big splash.
ReplyDeleteI bought this bottom giddy up
ReplyDeleteI still think we are headed up
ReplyDeleteJust my opinion
lou,
ReplyDeletewe need a big up ---does the fed have the power????
Yes SPX interacting with the 50 day average.
ReplyDeletedebt limit flash crash coming....
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteUvxy ---if we get a decent pull back here could we see 35 on uvxy ???--it beginning to look quite possible---we are consolidating at the lows!
SPX just in a consolidation as we wait for the 200 daily moving average to reach current levels.
DeleteTherefore I'm not looking for volatility until next year. Weekly SPX chart is strong.
I am thinking we may mini crash next week.
DeleteI have many charts and updates on the way. There are some good areas to trade. One market is approaching a turn.
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteI still expect a high from here next week ---but October will be another down Month--about another 150 points --Spx ---4100
Damage is already done!
what is your high for next week 4480 to 4500
Deletelou,
ReplyDeleteYou and I know---Spx 4600---would be nice!
Nah, we are headed down on S&P. Market Crash on the horizon.
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteNo major vix movement---but very controlled----I am concerned at this level and ---your next new position---I am hoping this is inflation oriented????
Wonder if the infrastructure bill will move the markets tomorrow, if so, which way?
ReplyDeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteToo much fear in this market--should see a reversal --either today or early next week!
way too early to crash this market--
Yes!
Delete