Oil made a breakout of a large scale wedge. A backtest was anticipated and Oil is working on that currently. Oil is the best trade of the year, and the most spectacular action is ahead. Monthly
In practice I've found it is difficult to make correlations between the two. For example, high oil prices act as a tax. Therefore it could put downward pressure on SPX. However, oil companies shares within SPX would rise with higher oil.
GUSH because it's an etf encompassing the whole sector rather than relying on one stock. The leverage is going to help it perform too yes. I think they will be comparable. RIG might move first though.
SC, Stupid question, but I’ve looked in a lot of places for the 50 MA on Rig and was unable to fine it. Maybe you or someone else can direct me to where I can find it.
All going according to plan. Probably a little more time for this backtest.
ReplyDeleteBuilding positions in GUSH and RIG to hold for Oil around the first target area $110.
ReplyDeleteAlthough Oil is the best trade this year, and a focus, I know you guys are all eager to make money now, this month of August. Am I right??!
ReplyDeleteI’m ready!
DeleteWhat do you have in mind?
Deletewe've been waiting for the SPX road map for a looong time sc :P
ReplyDeleteFriday the 13th is tomorrow - a special time of the year in timing doom and gloom!
ReplyDeleteA plan has been identified and will be posted next. Something a little different!
DeleteSC, if WTI is going high, the spx is the same?
ReplyDeleteIt's a good question.
DeleteIn practice I've found it is difficult to make correlations between the two. For example, high oil prices act as a tax. Therefore it could put downward pressure on SPX. However, oil companies shares within SPX would rise with higher oil.
It's best to look at oil and SPX individually.
Thanks
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteIf you could only buy one...Is RIG or GUSH the better play?
Will GUSH have more upside b/c it’s a 2x ETF?
GUSH because it's an etf encompassing the whole sector rather than relying on one stock. The leverage is going to help it perform too yes. I think they will be comparable. RIG might move first though.
DeleteXLE is another etf I chart without the leverage. It could be used by conservative traders.
DeleteI plan a position in XLE Calls. The XLE options are liquid with high open interest.
Hi SC,
DeleteI noticed GUSH was around $1500... does it have the same decay problem and reverse splits like UVXY?
What are your price targets on GUSH & RIG with $110 crude?
Yes, because it is leveraged there is decay. I'll post targets, just waiting for the turn.
DeleteSC are you still expecting s&P to move down in August?
ReplyDeleteLet's see, SPX hasn't been been seeing much movement.
DeleteSC, Price and time for the oil backtest. Thanks😀😀👍👍
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteStupid question, but I’ve looked in a lot of places for the 50 MA on Rig and was unable to fine it. Maybe you or someone else can direct me to where I can find it.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=rig&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p02255078496&a=375147375
DeleteThank you Deena.
ReplyDeleteSc
ReplyDeleteRig is still selling off
Hard to believe that their is a double in this position
Let’s wait and see?
Double bottom in rig and most oil stocks, some have triple bottom. Getting close to SC's backtest?
DeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete