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Friday, June 25, 2021

$VIX - Long Term Support

VIX has retraced to the level of February 2020 prior to the pandemic. VIX is now at long term support. A reaction may not be instant, but it will react to this line as it has in the past. Monthly

26 comments:

  1. Thanks, SC. Appreciate the heads-up.

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  2. SC,

    How do you recommend to play this?

    A. Position now in anticipation of spike (risky due to decay in uvxy? ) or

    B. wait until Vix confirms moves up (by then Vix is up 20-30% off the lows although uvxy usually takes a few days to ramp up)

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  3. The VIX is where we want it, but it's best to wait for UVXY and yes it'll decay further before it's ready. It's always big picture with volatility.

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  4. Thanks SC, I have been shifting to UVXY as of today, with an eye for being all in by the end of the month.

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  5. I have very specific plans for volatility trades.

    I'm probably going to make other trades first as we play the themes and trends underway, but expect volatility to be the most profitable.

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  6. SC, for spx will be around 3600 in summer, rebound to 4000 and finally drop to 3000-3200 in autumn?

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    Replies
    1. SPX is a hard short, and you know what those are always the best.

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    2. Wait for the setup though

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  7. Thanks SC, very nice so, you still think vix will arrive to 130?

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    Replies
    1. Yes absolutely, 170 is the VIX 1987 high.

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    2. Wow! Can’t wait for that set up!

      I Wonder what would trigger a Vix move like that?

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  8. SC ... VIX 170 before end of this year ?

    When abouts?

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    Replies
    1. Not yet, but there is major fear building up. Panic last year, and that was only a small part of it.

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  9. SC, anything worth buying or shorting right now?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, I'll post the chart. July trade planned.

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  10. Lumber prices plunged 40% in June.

    As I had stated on Twitter May 19th it was a hysteria: emotional excess and can refer to a temporary state of mind or emotion.

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    Replies
    1. The bubble and collapse of lumber is a bad sign for real estate assets. Particularly considering real estate crashed when the death rate turned up in 2008.

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  11. SC.. can you please post your updated SPX path chart?

    Thanks

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  12. Took profits sold RIG $4.94.

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