Crude Oil has spiked out of a large scale wedge pattern. Price has coiled since 2008 and has led to the explosive move higher. This is an extremely powerful pattern. However, Oil may settle back short term to backtest the breakout before the next surge up. Monthly
Oil spiked...
ReplyDeleteSCJune 16, 2021 at 7:04 AM
"Fed will ignore inflation which will, of course, lead to a massive spike in Oil."
SC,
ReplyDeleteWhat are your GUSH and Oil targets?
Does it correspond to massive spike in VIX?
Expect massive inflationary surge. Oil is preparing to gap up $30 a barrel over $100.
DeleteWeird gold has been dead for a while now
DeleteYou would think it should be well north of 2300
sc,
ReplyDeleteUVXY----very cheap----any ideas ---some analysts are looking for a very big pull back ---starting after the Holiday!
UVXY $2.75 presplit now lol.
DeleteUVXY had some action there a few weeks back when VIX bounced off the trendline. Let's keep an eye on it
DeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteI was looking at DRV this morning per your real estate/lumber post. I thought I would pass it on, just in case you found it interesting.
Thanks Scott!!
DeleteGUSH chart not looking good short term. I see there is gap at $67. GUSH susceptible to a vicious drop suddenly.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I'm not interested in DRIP because would be sudden but brief. Rather look to enter GUSH on the dip.
This also may be foretelling of a drop in SPX also.
SC, the vix break the canal?
ReplyDeleteHi SC,recently you said the VIX could spike to 130 on war fears. Any time window for the VIX spike, are you thinking sometime this year, 3rd or 4th quarter? Thanks💯
ReplyDeleteNot until much later in the bigger picture with China and Russia. It is the biggest theme.
DeleteI have other plans for volatility trades first.
This year inflation and Covid fear still most important.
Brent had triple top breakout on june 1,
ReplyDeletetarget 96
Thank you, SC. I really appreciate your perspective, you've got a lot of market knowledge and know how to apply it practically in order to make money. It's very generous of you to share your work here.
ReplyDeleteSC is awesome! Happy 4th🎆🎆
ReplyDeleteThank you all kindly!! Happy 4th of July and holidays! We're having fun! Best is yet to come...!!!
ReplyDeleteSC, do you think the vix start to go up, and we saw the top in the S&P?
ReplyDeleteI don't think so yet. SPX keeps bouncing on the 50 day moving average eventually it's going to crack. Economic is far worse than people think.
DeleteThere we go! RIG cooled off.
ReplyDeleteWhat price are you looking to buy RIG at?
ReplyDeleteEven here RIG is attractive. I might start to nibble soon. Also gap at $4.55. $4.40 possibly. Insiders bought heavily. RIG could breakout in July.
DeleteThe Oil cycle hitting a low next Monday. We have maybe a week to work with here.
SPX moves very slow
ReplyDeleteNow I don't promise you will enjoy the entire ride with Oil, but by the end of the ride, yes you will be thrilled!
ReplyDeleteThank you SC!
ReplyDeleteHahahaha
DeleteNotice how the 4th of July was overshadowed by the Florida condo collapse and other calamities. This is indicative of a "demise". They focus on the negatives. Each catastrophe replaces the previous. Glass half full.
ReplyDeleteThis is important for trading volatility.
Looking at this Oil chart only the 2007/2008 impulse compared in strength. That impulse went $50 to $145 Oil. $95 in magnitude. This impulse up in Oil started at $10. A $95 move would give $105.
ReplyDeleteIf you add a touch more for good measure maybe $115 WTI.
DeleteAt that time RIG was trading at $160 a share.
DeleteWow!
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteso you are expecting Rig to double correct---because --no way back to $160
Please advise?
Yes RIG short term pop
DeleteThere it is!!! We're getting a good dip in the Oil. GUSH, RIG, XLE coming down. Don't get too heavy yet though. Let prices come down. The dip is deepening...
ReplyDeleteBig trade coming!!!
ReplyDeleteOk SC you have my attention. "Oil cycle hitting a low next Monday."
ReplyDeleteSC xle under 50 next Monday, do you think it will go lower? Might be a good time to load uo!
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLE
Next Monday may be a good time to buy xle?
ReplyDeleteNot sure which day but due Monday. Spectacular entry is coming for XLE.
DeleteThis dip sharp but only brief.
sc,
ReplyDeleteDepending upon the size of the pull Back into late August---a global sell off----maybe starting short term?-- The re-opening movement which from a NYC view is not Occurring --usually this is the UVXY product is best to Capitalize on this move!--I bought a little RIG-and- I will need to average in at $3.50 to 3.75----But we will see?
Volatility starting to wake up. UVXY nice to see action beginning and we may be able to catch some moves next.
DeleteThe vicious drop materialized as anticipated. Yes planning to enter RIG, GUSH, and XLE calls.
ReplyDeleteSCJuly 1, 2021 at 12:40 PM
"GUSH chart not looking good short term. I see there is gap at $67. GUSH susceptible to a vicious drop suddenly.
However, I'm not interested in DRIP because would be sudden but brief. Rather look to enter GUSH on the dip.
This also may be foretelling of a drop in SPX also."
RIG holding quite well. Looks like we are working on the handle.
ReplyDeleteSC ... what level do you think SPX makes a top?
ReplyDelete4400 4500 5000?
I'll post a chart on this because this is important. I use the word top as in a major top. This way we differentiate between a high and a top. The reason people can't see the major turning points is that they become so focused on the minute details not seeing the big picture.
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteSPX 4420 to 4430---mid next week ---then a down below Spx 4000
Coincides with SC's drop in oil.
DeleteI have my doubts
DeleteSC, the weekly vix candle looks like sellers control
ReplyDeleteControl to sell the vix
ReplyDeleteFWIW -
ReplyDelete@DaveHcontrarian
As I have said many times, I am forecasting an 70%-80% bear market that is likely steeper & faster than 2008/09. Most or all of than decline could occur in less than six months time. It won't be gradual but it won't happen in three weeks either.
Timing, Biden or Harris midterm, October 2022?
Deletethanks. I'm looking for a drop that is equal either in points or percentage drop to the covid crash. However, it could go lower, and if your forecast is correct, it will. Timing has been an issue for me. I've been very cautious about being long for several months now. Getting tired of waiting! ;-)
DeleteBought RIG $4.35.
ReplyDeleteIt seems to me RIG may pop first. I'm not really that satisfied with GUSH or XLE yet. GUSH weekly 50 is at $55 and I would like to see it closer to that number.
ReplyDeleteFED is openly ignoring inflation and that makes it a top trade. Therefore, looking to build positions in Oil the best inflation trade.
ReplyDeleteBought PTR PetroChina at close, 44.68. Bought and sold last week also. Might be a short term play. Gas and oil usually go up into Labor Day weekend and beyond. Also, any dips in XLE should pay off as SC has pointed out.
ReplyDeleteLumber vs $NYSE...
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/axelroark/status/1414742817214189569/photo/1
interesting chart. thanks for posting!
DeleteSc
ReplyDeleteOCGN- cheap?
Would you buy here?
traded in and out of it last week for profits. I'm looking at it too but notice all vaccines are down today.
DeleteI think it is early for a big play on OCGN but there are scalps here and there
DeleteSc
ReplyDeleteIt’s cheap — October 10 call is 1.25
It’s a bargain???
OCGN looks good for the Fall/winter but it's not apparent what expiry to use yet.
DeleteAnother one we should strongly consider is KODK.
DeleteXBI looks like it is dipping towards $122 as anticipated. OCGN should be good for another trade at the time.
ReplyDeleteSc
ReplyDeleteIs Rig a longer term play or shoe term play????
Sc
ReplyDeleteRig is cheap here!
Long term or short term play???
August/September. Very bullish oil top trade over this period. Looking to accumulate positions on the dips
DeleteThanks SC!
DeleteGUSH coming down!! Excellent!!!
ReplyDeleteMoney flowing out of AMC and getting ready for the next short squeeze. We know where the hot money is going next...
ReplyDeleteSC, regarding RIG, do you have a price that would tell you your expected scenario may not happen? Or, a price in crude that would tell you that crude has entered a bear market and is not likely to rally? For example, crude drops below the low of May 21 and starts trading below $60.
ReplyDeleteI continue to view this as a backtest in Crude so going by our chart that number is around $60 WTI. Doubt it gets under that.
DeleteThe blue line is around $60
Deletethanks, SC!
DeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDeleteSc
ReplyDeleteLooks like a reversal
we can go higher from here
Let’s see what the end of the day brings