The SPX high should come in quite soon because we are looking for yet another "double bottom" pattern to play out over the summer months. It will be very obvious as it forms. Similar to September and October 2020. The difference being that it will be a bull trap this time around.
Wouldn’t the increase simply be from all of the Boomers dying off?....or do you think something more nefarious is at play such as vaccinated populations dropping like flies from vaccine induced ADE and/or prion disease?
Still can’t get that Deagel projection out of my head which predicts a 100M population for USA by 2025. Less than 4 years away!
Similar drops worldwide ex: UK drop from 65M to 14M, Israel drop from 9M to 4 M. These are all heavily vaccinated countries....ironically India, Russia and China only predicted mild decline (less than 5%) but they are not cuckoo for mRNA vaccines either.
While yes I do agree it is mostly a demographic problem, there are other serious factors driving the death rate higher. It is a global problem. Never before have demographics been so important. Notice China increased the limit to 3 children. The birth rate is very low due to lack of confidence with failing governments and economies.
Also quite telling is that the housing market crashed in 2008 just as the death rate turned up into this massive spike. The housing market crash appears to have been an early warning. The recent lumber price blow off parabola from a 30 year base is certainly troubling.
SPX has gone flat, gaining next to nothing since middle of April. Momentum is lost but a quiet market will probably drive VIX a little lower. VIX futures in contango
There is very nice trading but very short term. However, we are getting closer to bigger trades. The short squeeze is spreading and I have a plan for that.
I like that line of thinking because if Iran starts pumping Oil could drop suddenly. But I don't have plans for DRIP because I think any drop in Oil will likely only be temporary.
Chinese stocks were hot in February but have since cooled. This is something we should watch closely. I think there is going to be action, but waiting to see from what price level. Good idea, let's watch. I have a few tickers also.
OCGN taking a hit. The vaccine stock announces that they are not proceeding with an EUA emergency use authorization. Instead filing a BLA which is a full approval with the FDA.
Now is the time to watch for a low soon and entry. Aside from the FDA filing there is an application with the WHO. The WHO could approve this vaccine soon adding it to the list of approved vaccines...
They can cry all they want but it won't change anything yet. My feeling is that the short squeeze is going to continue to spread and during this summer will hit to broader market. Right now it is just small caps.
Let's wait for Oil pullback to reload. With inflation numbers today and Oil Cycle high due middle of June there is enough reason to step back. The main risk right now is if Iran starts to pump Oil.
Nobody drives electric cars!
ReplyDeleteAre u shorting oil
ReplyDeleteOr maybe wait for 98
ReplyDeleteA little higher but yes Oil should pullback. Getting overdone at least in short term.
DeleteRIG firming up. Price is still very reasonable.
ReplyDeleteCould test the March high around $4.60 this month
DeleteLarger targets over several months
DeleteAdded RIG $4.12.
ReplyDeleteOil Cycle is positive until middle of June
ReplyDeletehttps://youtu.be/Vt1BeD85lPw
ReplyDeleteAMC went crazy there. It's halted!
ReplyDeleteAMC opened plunged, now halted again lol
DeleteHave you re-evaluated uvxy post-split? Any time and/or price targets?
ReplyDeleteUVXY can go significantly lower especially when we consider the term structure, and yet we already see volatility in certain segments of the market.
DeleteHowever, SPX is quiet...for now
DeleteThanks, SC.
ReplyDeleteThe meme stock frenzy will lead to a broader dislocation.
ReplyDeleteNVAX had a big day. Seemed to wake up OCGN.
ReplyDeleteThere is some talk that Iran is about to open production of Oil. If so that would temporarily depress Oil. So that could happen in coming months.
ReplyDeleteany updates on SPX?
ReplyDeleteThe SPX high should come in quite soon because we are looking for yet another "double bottom" pattern to play out over the summer months. It will be very obvious as it forms. Similar to September and October 2020. The difference being that it will be a bull trap this time around.
DeleteSC, when you say "the SPX high should come in quite soon" do you mean this week or next week?
ReplyDeleteNext week is another FOMC meeting on June 15th and 16th. I wonder if the SPX will put in a high on those dates.
Let's keep those dates in mind. Also July 4th.
DeleteBiotech hot today. Flipped RMED already for nice profit.
ReplyDeleteVaccine stocks running
ReplyDeleteBiogen has a big decision due this week
ReplyDeleteA lot of speculation about the health crisis being over. People are feeling good about the vaccination program.
ReplyDeleteYou'd better look at this chart from the United Nations:
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate
SC,
DeleteWouldn’t the increase simply be from all of the Boomers dying off?....or do you think something more nefarious is at play such as vaccinated populations dropping like flies from vaccine induced ADE and/or prion disease?
Still can’t get that Deagel projection out of my head which predicts a 100M population for USA by 2025. Less than 4 years away!
Similar drops worldwide ex: UK drop from 65M to 14M, Israel drop from 9M to 4 M. These are all heavily vaccinated countries....ironically India, Russia and China only predicted mild decline (less than 5%) but they are not cuckoo for mRNA vaccines either.
While yes I do agree it is mostly a demographic problem, there are other serious factors driving the death rate higher. It is a global problem. Never before have demographics been so important. Notice China increased the limit to 3 children. The birth rate is very low due to lack of confidence with failing governments and economies.
DeleteAlso quite telling is that the housing market crashed in 2008 just as the death rate turned up into this massive spike. The housing market crash appears to have been an early warning. The recent lumber price blow off parabola from a 30 year base is certainly troubling.
Biogen shares surge 60% after FDA approves Alzheimer’s drug
ReplyDeleteSC, what about the vix?
ReplyDeleteSPX has gone flat, gaining next to nothing since middle of April. Momentum is lost but a quiet market will probably drive VIX a little lower. VIX futures in contango
Deletehttps://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warning-signs-correction-ahead
ReplyDeleteThe short squeezes are spreading.... popping off all over the place.
ReplyDeleteFizzled out, coming back to earth now
ReplyDeleteSC any trades ?
ReplyDeleteThere is very nice trading but very short term. However, we are getting closer to bigger trades. The short squeeze is spreading and I have a plan for that.
DeleteGUSH cracking $100!
ReplyDeleteIs it time to buy DRIP?
DeleteI like that line of thinking because if Iran starts pumping Oil could drop suddenly. But I don't have plans for DRIP because I think any drop in Oil will likely only be temporary.
DeleteSc are Chinese adrs a Long ?
ReplyDeleteFor example Doyu looks like it's ready to make a run
Chinese stocks were hot in February but have since cooled. This is something we should watch closely. I think there is going to be action, but waiting to see from what price level. Good idea, let's watch. I have a few tickers also.
DeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteLooked at KODK lately?
Yes lol. It looked to have a short squeeze yesterday. It looks to settling down and cooling off.
DeleteBought RMED $7.65.
ReplyDeleteI made profit on this earlier this week, and trying it again. Short squeeze candidate small cap. Healthcare is hot. CLOV for example.
DeleteIf the shorts are caught here and it catches on it can squeeze. Spec stock so we will see. About 40% short. Just one of many trades I am looking at.
DeleteSold RMED $8.40.
ReplyDeleteOCGN taking a hit. The vaccine stock announces that they are not proceeding with an EUA emergency use authorization. Instead filing a BLA which is a full approval with the FDA.
ReplyDeleteNow is the time to watch for a low soon and entry. Aside from the FDA filing there is an application with the WHO. The WHO could approve this vaccine soon adding it to the list of approved vaccines...
bought ocgn 6.83
ReplyDeletelooks like the shorts are crying to politicians again little bitches
ReplyDeleteYes! Funny when the tables are turned.
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwATF5dnfq4
ReplyDeleteCHANGE WHITE HORSE TO WORK HORSE FOR LYRICS
Nice lol!!!
Deletelol
ReplyDeleteSold GUSH $100.65.
ReplyDeleteInflation numbers out today, could mark a high in Oil.
Deleteim out
Deletethe shorts are running outa time on wkhs
ReplyDeleteThanks Louis, I've been watching it as well. Short squeeze still the hot play!
Deleteany traction with over 45 percent short could make this jump
Deleteunless the institutions start crying
They can cry all they want but it won't change anything yet. My feeling is that the short squeeze is going to continue to spread and during this summer will hit to broader market. Right now it is just small caps.
DeleteLet's wait for Oil pullback to reload. With inflation numbers today and Oil Cycle high due middle of June there is enough reason to step back. The main risk right now is if Iran starts to pump Oil.
ReplyDeleteI'd use a pullback as an entry again.
My hands aren't diamond. I have take the profit and run hands lolol
ReplyDeleteGUSH pulling back! Beautifully timed!!
ReplyDeleteBought starter position OCGN at $7.00.
ReplyDeleteKeeping some dry powder. Plan to accumulate a larger position.
DeleteI have a specific trading plan for OCGN with 3 targets coming.
DeleteBought more ocgn 6.32
ReplyDeleteMaybe a little lower but it should be close to a low.
DeleteSC .. is it time to load up on UVXY yet?
ReplyDeleteUVXY I just don't have a reason to do it yet.
DeleteSVXY has a gap@ $62 = $20 UVXY??
ReplyDeleteShort XBI $135.40. Biotech index.
ReplyDeleteBiotech looks overdone this week with Biogen. XBI can drop back to $122. Weekly XBI RSI stalled at 50.
DeleteBiogen charges $56,000 annually for their new treatment. Reminds of Martin Shkreli. Expect some pushback.
Delete