"For only the second time in recorded history, meteorologist Philip Klotzbach said, there are five tropical cyclones churning in the Atlantic basin: Paulette, Rene, Teddy and now Vicky also are spinning over ocean waters."
SC, with uvxy at 35 could we see S&p around 3200 or lower in your opinion? i'd like to try a buy and hold until the october - november top.. is a good idea in your view?
Well UVXY structured off VIX futures not VIX itself. VIX futures are in a steep contango so UVXY has a mountain to climb here. For UVXY to rise need to see serious volatility to make that happen.
I usually play uvxy at times like this, to risky right now. FOMC didn’t change anything, same message as before. No reason for a big drop right now, we need a catalyst. I feel spx goes down a bit more and then we go up in the interim. Tqqq has been a pretty good trade over the last couple of weeks.
I bought my first block at 127. Will buy more of the opportunity presents itself tomorrow AM.
And another thing. This Snowflake IPO. The US market is so mature that they have run out of names for companies. They have to resort to calling things Snowflake. These companies don't produce anything. "cloud computing?" Your head would have to be in clouds to put money in.
Sami, you are right most of the contango is factored in now, but it did take a toll. UVXY took quite a decay last few weeks with VIX holding quite well.
The fact that vix hasn't jumped at these lows we keep revisiting .. tells me we got alot more to fall before we bottom.... it won't bottom till we see a big spike in fear/vix
"The National Hurricane Center wrote Hurricane Teddy’s peak winds had increased 20 mph since the last advisory at 11 a.m., rapidly intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph maximum sustained winds. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, and the Hurricane Center predicts its winds to peak around 150 mph before likely fluctuations in intensity into the weekend."
"There is some chance Teddy could strike Bermuda and then northern New England toward the middle of next week, while the gulf system could be a problem for coastal Texas and the northern Gulf Coast around the same time.
The threat of new storms comes during the busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record. Twenty named storms have formed and, after the likely Wilfred, forecasters will be forced to draw from the Greek alphabet for naming additional storms. That’s happened only once before, in 2005, the busiest season on record."
Bought UVXY $19.85.
ReplyDeleteBought VXX Oct 16th $32 calls at $1.42.
ReplyDeleteThe thinking here is that if UVXY holds the August low of $18 we can see a higher high around $35.
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteaccording to your analysis
you are expecting UVXY to go to a Higher ---above 30 correct???
UVXY may see higher high around $35.
DeleteThats the question may im gonna wait till tommorow to see
DeleteIm out tqqq 129
ReplyDeleteStorm is brewing:
ReplyDelete"For only the second time in recorded history, meteorologist Philip Klotzbach said, there are five tropical cyclones churning in the Atlantic basin: Paulette, Rene, Teddy and now Vicky also are spinning over ocean waters."
That should be good for 5 UVXY points
DeleteSally making landfall, 4 more hurricanes to go...
DeleteSC, with uvxy at 35 could we see S&p around 3200 or lower in your opinion? i'd like to try a buy and hold until the october - november top.. is a good idea in your view?
ReplyDeletemany thanks.
What happens in these situations is VIX spikes as SPX approaches a low. Yes, that probably is about right, let's see early October.
DeleteAnd there it is. CCL plummeted!
ReplyDeleteIm looking for a drop in the market into the 22nd of sept maybe 3200
ReplyDeleteI am looking for closer to 2100 around then
Delete
Delete3100 that is...
Bought uvxy
ReplyDeleteLouis did you go in heavy or a starter?
DeleteIm trading it
DeleteI didnt go heavy no
Deletelou,
ReplyDeleteI am loaded up on the UVXY
Vix down uvxy up lol nog making sense hey tommy whats your cost
ReplyDeleteestimate---21
ReplyDeleteUVXY about to go green on weekly bar
ReplyDeletecan't seem to find a vix trading on the canadian market.Anybody know of any.
ReplyDeleteThanks,
Horizons used to have them but I believe they closed volatility etfs.
DeleteMassive gap on the es futures for dec contract at around 3329 that will get closed sooner rather than later
ReplyDeleteVix futures expire tomorrow . And fed reserve meeting. Will it affect vix
ReplyDeleteSold uvxy
ReplyDeleteLou,
ReplyDeletei think your right we may need a catalyst???
Tommy u still have kodk
DeleteKODK spiking 42% premarket on news.
ReplyDelete"Kodak shares soar after law firm says CEO's options grants did not violate internal policies"
Kodak is $9 back trading above the 50 dma which is at $7.75.
DeleteI think best to hold. Looks like the moving average will hold for now. Probably KODK heading towards $13.
This market could jump 3465 max
DeleteWoah they halted KODK there. Was spiking too quickly lol
ReplyDeleteBought uvxy 1985
ReplyDeleteSold KODK $9.80.
ReplyDeleteIt does have really strong chart but it is crazy lol. I have more plans for this one later...
DeleteGood job smart choice
DeleteThe chart looks like mushroom cloud hahaha
DeleteBought more 19.75 uvxy
ReplyDeleteJPMorgan Warns Of $200 Billion In Forced Month-End Selling
ReplyDeletehttps://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-warns-200-billion-forced-month-end-selling
There is something wrong with the vix index up 74 cents in UV XY and VXX down don't make any sense of my head whatsoever
ReplyDeletelou,
ReplyDeleteyour right
Dont make sense???
sc----any imput????
Well UVXY structured off VIX futures not VIX itself. VIX futures are in a steep contango so UVXY has a mountain to climb here. For UVXY to rise need to see serious volatility to make that happen.
ReplyDeleteThe worst of the cantankerous is over no ? They've already rolled to the October futures... going forward it looks to be backwardation
Deletestupid spellcheck
DeleteI meant worst of the contango
I'm not sure what the mix is currently but I will look into this.
DeleteI will dump this piece of crap
ReplyDeleteIm out of uvxy no interest
ReplyDeleteId rather short tqqq on pops
ReplyDeleteVVIX (VIX Volatility), is dropping like a lead ball.
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteUVXY
I good place to average - in could be 18
any advice?
or just a bad day?
with hope the fed---may give us a negative!
Het tommy get your communion money out
ReplyDeleteLou
ReplyDeleteI am not separating with wooden Nickle!
sc,
ReplyDeleteuvxy----any comments or just wait and see???
Bought uvxy 19.32
ReplyDeleteuvxy, double bottom?
ReplyDeleteUVXY I think still should come in for us.
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeletelower or higher???
US being ravaged. West coast is on fire and East coast Sally making landfall and 4 more hurricanes in the pipe.
ReplyDeleteConditions are there for volatility.
But we do have this problem with contango to contend with and the stock market is still hanging in there.
ReplyDeleteI'm quite sure SPX will drop but maybe there is still some downside for UVXY
Sold uvxy 19.74
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeletegood answer!
I will wait for 32 or better!
Thank you!
Bought tqqq 129
ReplyDeleteKODK. I did manage nice score there. Stock was up nice. I also had Sept 25 calls $15 strike. When KODK halted I sold them up 1,000% still way OTM 😆
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile UVXY up 3 cents 🙄
DeleteYup
DeleteBought more tqqq127.20
ReplyDeleteWow got lucky on that trade
ReplyDeleteJust in time, the KODK does have mega velocity when it moves.
DeleteWe will have fun with KODK in future but for now daily chart is not great. It is holding above the 50 dma, but I don't think for long time...
DeleteLooks like 3374 then 3460 by friday monday
ReplyDeleteUvxy is wAste
ReplyDeleteWhat we need is VIX 50 to 65. That would put spring into UVXY step.
ReplyDeleteI usually play uvxy at times like this, to risky right now. FOMC didn’t change anything, same message as before. No reason for a big drop right now, we need a catalyst. I feel spx goes down a bit more and then we go up in the interim. Tqqq has been a pretty good trade over the last couple of weeks.
ReplyDeleteI bought my first block at 127. Will buy more of the opportunity presents itself tomorrow AM.
Gold is forming a very nice pennant. It's going to move soon...which way?
ReplyDeleteIf DX is basing for a rally then gold will probably move down
DeleteBuying more tqqq in premarket
ReplyDeleteBought tqqq 119.80
ReplyDeleteThere we go. Volatility rearing it's head.
ReplyDeleteExpect 3 more weeks of volatility
ReplyDeleteSC, after the 21st, is Oct 15 the next turn?
ReplyDeleteYes that is right. For SPX the dates work, but don't line up exactly. SPX sold off before the September 8th turn. But is is close.
DeleteThanks SC, I still have a high target in Oct, so 21st would be a good time for a low.
DeleteMakes sense Joe, thanks!
DeleteBought tqqq at 116
ReplyDeleteWhat is wrong with the pic. Last time at 3320 vix was 35 or so and uvxy also higher
ReplyDeleteWhats wrong is they are manipulating uvxy it shoild be 30 on this drop
DeleteYup. Even vix lis low . These are not good instruments. Spy or qqq puts would have been better yesterday
ReplyDeleteAnd another thing. This Snowflake IPO. The US market is so mature that they have run out of names for companies. They have to resort to calling things Snowflake. These companies don't produce anything. "cloud computing?" Your head would have to be in clouds to put money in.
ReplyDeleteare you saying your track record is better than Buffett?
Deletepretty sure he sold half at the top though....
Blow off top into election....
Buffet had hardly anything.
DeleteVIX spikes when SPX is near a bottom in time in these situations. The fact VIX is low says SPX is not near a bottom in TIME.
ReplyDeleteGive it 3 weeks.
DeleteThat was definatley the bottom
DeleteVIX 50 in October.
ReplyDeleteVIX is green on weekly.
DeleteSC:
Deletewhat prices do you see for the S&p500 in October with a vix at 50
It'll be lower but not dramatically lower for SPX. This is more about volatility than price decline for SPX.
DeleteYes aftef the 9th
ReplyDeleteUvxu is crap im my opinion i will short this pig at 35
ReplyDeleteif it gets to 35 ... I'll be going on a nice mexican vacation I tell ya what :) ...
DeleteSami, you are right most of the contango is factored in now, but it did take a toll. UVXY took quite a decay last few weeks with VIX holding quite well.
DeleteThe fact that vix hasn't jumped at these lows we keep revisiting .. tells me we got alot more to fall before we bottom.... it won't bottom till we see a big spike in fear/vix
DeleteBig covid relief package coming
ReplyDeleteMy average in tqqq is 122.80
ReplyDeleteSPX 3,350 support cracked. Now support becomes resistance.
ReplyDeleteAgreed... a daily close below 3300 would seal the deal
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteHeavily Manipulated ETF
Louie is right ----something spectacular will be released by early next week
support is 3200---3450 is the top
Let the games begin!
3449 next then 3200 is my opinion
ReplyDeleteIm expecting tqqq to hit 134 again
ReplyDeleteSrne exploding higher
ReplyDeleteGood one Louis!
DeleteI can wait 3 weeks for UVXY at 35
ReplyDeleteSeot 21st turn date?
ReplyDeleteClear distribution happening in the markets with retail buying and institutions dumping. Sign of times to come?
ReplyDeletenot gonna lie... UVXY is definitely starting to test my patience...
ReplyDelete100 point move down on the spx and... ugh....
Bought more tqqq, 119.8, 116.9 avg 119.98
ReplyDeleteGood i believe you will do well
DeleteI believe that spx could reach 3600
ReplyDeleteBy Oct 2nd week
I think the drop will come from higher level
ReplyDeleteSi im thinking 3450 then 3200 then 3600
ReplyDeleteCentral bank is printing money
ReplyDeleteMarkets will rip hire
Election more important now than Fed. Reason to go down now is so can go up later towards Election
ReplyDeleteunder controlled volatility
ReplyDeleteVix up uvxy and vxx down
ReplyDeletehttps://northmantrader.com/2020/09/17/vix-uprising/
ReplyDeleteHere comes #2. Hurricane Teddy:
ReplyDelete"The National Hurricane Center wrote Hurricane Teddy’s peak winds had increased 20 mph since the last advisory at 11 a.m., rapidly intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph maximum sustained winds. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, and the Hurricane Center predicts its winds to peak around 150 mph before likely fluctuations in intensity into the weekend."
"There is some chance Teddy could strike Bermuda and then northern New England toward the middle of next week, while the gulf system could be a problem for coastal Texas and the northern Gulf Coast around the same time.
The threat of new storms comes during the busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record. Twenty named storms have formed and, after the likely Wilfred, forecasters will be forced to draw from the Greek alphabet for naming additional storms. That’s happened only once before, in 2005, the busiest season on record."
Added UVXY premarket $19.15.
ReplyDeletehttps://youtu.be/d-ABIIZV3vA
ReplyDeleteSPX failing at the 3,350!
DeleteIm thinking today up and monday up
ReplyDeleteAnd next week down hardim thinking monday at least 3429
Then 3200
ReplyDeleteVix aint acting like a drop is coming maybe next week
ReplyDeleteSPX 3,338 has lost the 50 dma which is at 3,343.
ReplyDeleteWe going down today...
DeleteSC - SPX is certainly going down - any targets? 3150-3200? UVXY is not budging...do we need a limit down move for it to get moving lol?
DeleteThere that's better lol
DeleteBought mote tqqq 117.68
ReplyDeleteUvxy getting slamed in the ass
ReplyDeleteThis does not make any sense in my head
Guys
ReplyDeletethe line in the sand is NDX--10850---
if we drop below that level --close --two days in a row below that level--there is small support at 10350--major support is at 9,900---
let the games begin!
without this being broke---we are just stuck in a range!
ReplyDeleteTommy who gives a crap
Deletethat is exactly right------we are just stuck here!
ReplyDeleteThe beatings will continue to morale improves!
Bought tqqq 114
ReplyDelete