Finding the edge in analyzing unique market Cycles.
UVXY has consistently made lower highs and lower lows.
The first step to awaken would be a higher high. It may be ready to see just that.
Bought UVXY $19.85.
Bought VXX Oct 16th $32 calls at $1.42.
The thinking here is that if UVXY holds the August low of $18 we can see a higher high around $35.
sc,according to your analysisyou are expecting UVXY to go to a Higher ---above 30 correct???
UVXY may see higher high around $35.
Thats the question may im gonna wait till tommorow to see
Im out tqqq 129
Storm is brewing:"For only the second time in recorded history, meteorologist Philip Klotzbach said, there are five tropical cyclones churning in the Atlantic basin: Paulette, Rene, Teddy and now Vicky also are spinning over ocean waters."
That should be good for 5 UVXY points
Sally making landfall, 4 more hurricanes to go...
SC, with uvxy at 35 could we see S&p around 3200 or lower in your opinion? i'd like to try a buy and hold until the october - november top.. is a good idea in your view?many thanks.
What happens in these situations is VIX spikes as SPX approaches a low. Yes, that probably is about right, let's see early October.
And there it is. CCL plummeted!
Im looking for a drop in the market into the 22nd of sept maybe 3200
I am looking for closer to 2100 around then
3100 that is...
Louis did you go in heavy or a starter?
Im trading it
I didnt go heavy no
lou,I am loaded up on the UVXY
Vix down uvxy up lol nog making sense hey tommy whats your cost
UVXY about to go green on weekly bar
can't seem to find a vix trading on the canadian market.Anybody know of any.Thanks,
Horizons used to have them but I believe they closed volatility etfs.
Massive gap on the es futures for dec contract at around 3329 that will get closed sooner rather than later
Vix futures expire tomorrow . And fed reserve meeting. Will it affect vix
Lou,i think your right we may need a catalyst???
Tommy u still have kodk
KODK spiking 42% premarket on news."Kodak shares soar after law firm says CEO's options grants did not violate internal policies"
Kodak is $9 back trading above the 50 dma which is at $7.75.I think best to hold. Looks like the moving average will hold for now. Probably KODK heading towards $13.
This market could jump 3465 max
Woah they halted KODK there. Was spiking too quickly lol
Bought uvxy 1985
Sold KODK $9.80.
It does have really strong chart but it is crazy lol. I have more plans for this one later...
Good job smart choice
The chart looks like mushroom cloud hahaha
Bought more 19.75 uvxy
JPMorgan Warns Of $200 Billion In Forced Month-End Sellinghttps://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-warns-200-billion-forced-month-end-selling
There is something wrong with the vix index up 74 cents in UV XY and VXX down don't make any sense of my head whatsoever
lou,your rightDont make sense???sc----any imput????
Well UVXY structured off VIX futures not VIX itself. VIX futures are in a steep contango so UVXY has a mountain to climb here. For UVXY to rise need to see serious volatility to make that happen.
The worst of the cantankerous is over no ? They've already rolled to the October futures... going forward it looks to be backwardation
stupid spellcheckI meant worst of the contango
I'm not sure what the mix is currently but I will look into this.
I will dump this piece of crap
Im out of uvxy no interest
Id rather short tqqq on pops
VVIX (VIX Volatility), is dropping like a lead ball.
sc,UVXYI good place to average - in could be 18any advice?or just a bad day?with hope the fed---may give us a negative!
Het tommy get your communion money out
Lou I am not separating with wooden Nickle!
sc,uvxy----any comments or just wait and see???
Bought uvxy 19.32
uvxy, double bottom?
UVXY I think still should come in for us.
sc,lower or higher???
US being ravaged. West coast is on fire and East coast Sally making landfall and 4 more hurricanes in the pipe.Conditions are there for volatility.
But we do have this problem with contango to contend with and the stock market is still hanging in there.I'm quite sure SPX will drop but maybe there is still some downside for UVXY
Sold uvxy 19.74
sc,good answer!I will wait for 32 or better!Thank you!
Bought tqqq 129
KODK. I did manage nice score there. Stock was up nice. I also had Sept 25 calls $15 strike. When KODK halted I sold them up 1,000% still way OTM 😆
Meanwhile UVXY up 3 cents 🙄
Bought more tqqq127.20
Wow got lucky on that trade
Just in time, the KODK does have mega velocity when it moves.
We will have fun with KODK in future but for now daily chart is not great. It is holding above the 50 dma, but I don't think for long time...
Looks like 3374 then 3460 by friday monday
Uvxy is wAste
What we need is VIX 50 to 65. That would put spring into UVXY step.
I usually play uvxy at times like this, to risky right now. FOMC didn’t change anything, same message as before. No reason for a big drop right now, we need a catalyst. I feel spx goes down a bit more and then we go up in the interim. Tqqq has been a pretty good trade over the last couple of weeks.I bought my first block at 127. Will buy more of the opportunity presents itself tomorrow AM.
Gold is forming a very nice pennant. It's going to move soon...which way?
If DX is basing for a rally then gold will probably move down
Buying more tqqq in premarket
Bought tqqq 119.80
There we go. Volatility rearing it's head.
Expect 3 more weeks of volatility
SC, after the 21st, is Oct 15 the next turn?
Yes that is right. For SPX the dates work, but don't line up exactly. SPX sold off before the September 8th turn. But is is close.
Thanks SC, I still have a high target in Oct, so 21st would be a good time for a low.
Makes sense Joe, thanks!
Bought tqqq at 116
What is wrong with the pic. Last time at 3320 vix was 35 or so and uvxy also higher
Whats wrong is they are manipulating uvxy it shoild be 30 on this drop
Yup. Even vix lis low . These are not good instruments. Spy or qqq puts would have been better yesterday
And another thing. This Snowflake IPO. The US market is so mature that they have run out of names for companies. They have to resort to calling things Snowflake. These companies don't produce anything. "cloud computing?" Your head would have to be in clouds to put money in.
are you saying your track record is better than Buffett?pretty sure he sold half at the top though....Blow off top into election....
Buffet had hardly anything.
VIX spikes when SPX is near a bottom in time in these situations. The fact VIX is low says SPX is not near a bottom in TIME.
Give it 3 weeks.
That was definatley the bottom
VIX 50 in October.
VIX is green on weekly.
SC: what prices do you see for the S&p500 in October with a vix at 50
It'll be lower but not dramatically lower for SPX. This is more about volatility than price decline for SPX.
Yes aftef the 9th
Uvxu is crap im my opinion i will short this pig at 35
if it gets to 35 ... I'll be going on a nice mexican vacation I tell ya what :) ...
Sami, you are right most of the contango is factored in now, but it did take a toll. UVXY took quite a decay last few weeks with VIX holding quite well.
The fact that vix hasn't jumped at these lows we keep revisiting .. tells me we got alot more to fall before we bottom.... it won't bottom till we see a big spike in fear/vix
Big covid relief package coming
My average in tqqq is 122.80
SPX 3,350 support cracked. Now support becomes resistance.
Agreed... a daily close below 3300 would seal the deal
sc,Heavily Manipulated ETFLouie is right ----something spectacular will be released by early next weeksupport is 3200---3450 is the topLet the games begin!
3449 next then 3200 is my opinion
Im expecting tqqq to hit 134 again
Srne exploding higher
Good one Louis!
I can wait 3 weeks for UVXY at 35
Seot 21st turn date?
Clear distribution happening in the markets with retail buying and institutions dumping. Sign of times to come?
not gonna lie... UVXY is definitely starting to test my patience...100 point move down on the spx and... ugh....
Bought more tqqq, 119.8, 116.9 avg 119.98
Good i believe you will do well
I believe that spx could reach 3600By Oct 2nd week
I think the drop will come from higher level
Si im thinking 3450 then 3200 then 3600
Central bank is printing moneyMarkets will rip hire
Election more important now than Fed. Reason to go down now is so can go up later towards Election
under controlled volatility
Vix up uvxy and vxx down
Here comes #2. Hurricane Teddy:"The National Hurricane Center wrote Hurricane Teddy’s peak winds had increased 20 mph since the last advisory at 11 a.m., rapidly intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph maximum sustained winds. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, and the Hurricane Center predicts its winds to peak around 150 mph before likely fluctuations in intensity into the weekend.""There is some chance Teddy could strike Bermuda and then northern New England toward the middle of next week, while the gulf system could be a problem for coastal Texas and the northern Gulf Coast around the same time.The threat of new storms comes during the busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record. Twenty named storms have formed and, after the likely Wilfred, forecasters will be forced to draw from the Greek alphabet for naming additional storms. That’s happened only once before, in 2005, the busiest season on record."
Added UVXY premarket $19.15.
SPX failing at the 3,350!
Im thinking today up and monday up And next week down hardim thinking monday at least 3429
Vix aint acting like a drop is coming maybe next week
SPX 3,338 has lost the 50 dma which is at 3,343.
We going down today...
SC - SPX is certainly going down - any targets? 3150-3200? UVXY is not budging...do we need a limit down move for it to get moving lol?
There that's better lol
Bought mote tqqq 117.68
Uvxy getting slamed in the ass This does not make any sense in my head
Guysthe line in the sand is NDX--10850---if we drop below that level --close --two days in a row below that level--there is small support at 10350--major support is at 9,900---let the games begin!
without this being broke---we are just stuck in a range!
Tommy who gives a crap
that is exactly right------we are just stuck here!The beatings will continue to morale improves!
Bought tqqq 114
New chart posted!