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Monday, September 14, 2020

UVXY - Awakening

UVXY has consistently made lower highs and lower lows.

The first step to awaken would be a higher high.  It may be ready to see just that.

Daily



147 comments:

  1. Bought VXX Oct 16th $32 calls at $1.42.

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  2. The thinking here is that if UVXY holds the August low of $18 we can see a higher high around $35.

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  3. sc,

    according to your analysis

    you are expecting UVXY to go to a Higher ---above 30 correct???

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    Replies
    1. UVXY may see higher high around $35.

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    2. Thats the question may im gonna wait till tommorow to see

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  4. Storm is brewing:

    "For only the second time in recorded history, meteorologist Philip Klotzbach said, there are five tropical cyclones churning in the Atlantic basin: Paulette, Rene, Teddy and now Vicky also are spinning over ocean waters."

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    1. That should be good for 5 UVXY points

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    2. Sally making landfall, 4 more hurricanes to go...

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  5. SC, with uvxy at 35 could we see S&p around 3200 or lower in your opinion? i'd like to try a buy and hold until the october - november top.. is a good idea in your view?

    many thanks.

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    Replies
    1. What happens in these situations is VIX spikes as SPX approaches a low. Yes, that probably is about right, let's see early October.

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  6. And there it is. CCL plummeted!

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  7. Im looking for a drop in the market into the 22nd of sept maybe 3200

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  8. Vix down uvxy up lol nog making sense hey tommy whats your cost

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  9. UVXY about to go green on weekly bar

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  10. can't seem to find a vix trading on the canadian market.Anybody know of any.

    Thanks,

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    Replies
    1. Horizons used to have them but I believe they closed volatility etfs.

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  11. Massive gap on the es futures for dec contract at around 3329 that will get closed sooner rather than later

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  12. Vix futures expire tomorrow . And fed reserve meeting. Will it affect vix

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  13. Lou,

    i think your right we may need a catalyst???

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  14. KODK spiking 42% premarket on news.

    "Kodak shares soar after law firm says CEO's options grants did not violate internal policies"

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    1. Kodak is $9 back trading above the 50 dma which is at $7.75.

      I think best to hold. Looks like the moving average will hold for now. Probably KODK heading towards $13.

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  15. Woah they halted KODK there. Was spiking too quickly lol

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  16. Replies
    1. It does have really strong chart but it is crazy lol. I have more plans for this one later...

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    2. The chart looks like mushroom cloud hahaha

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  17. JPMorgan Warns Of $200 Billion In Forced Month-End Selling

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-warns-200-billion-forced-month-end-selling

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  18. There is something wrong with the vix index up 74 cents in UV XY and VXX down don't make any sense of my head whatsoever

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  19. lou,


    your right


    Dont make sense???


    sc----any imput????

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  20. Well UVXY structured off VIX futures not VIX itself. VIX futures are in a steep contango so UVXY has a mountain to climb here. For UVXY to rise need to see serious volatility to make that happen.

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    Replies
    1. The worst of the cantankerous is over no ? They've already rolled to the October futures... going forward it looks to be backwardation

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    2. stupid spellcheck
      I meant worst of the contango

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    3. I'm not sure what the mix is currently but I will look into this.

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  21. VVIX (VIX Volatility), is dropping like a lead ball.

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  22. sc,

    UVXY

    I good place to average - in could be 18

    any advice?

    or just a bad day?

    with hope the fed---may give us a negative!

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  23. Het tommy get your communion money out

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  24. Lou

    I am not separating with wooden Nickle!

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  25. sc,

    uvxy----any comments or just wait and see???

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  26. UVXY I think still should come in for us.

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  27. US being ravaged. West coast is on fire and East coast Sally making landfall and 4 more hurricanes in the pipe.

    Conditions are there for volatility.

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  28. But we do have this problem with contango to contend with and the stock market is still hanging in there.

    I'm quite sure SPX will drop but maybe there is still some downside for UVXY

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  29. sc,

    good answer!

    I will wait for 32 or better!

    Thank you!

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  30. KODK. I did manage nice score there. Stock was up nice. I also had Sept 25 calls $15 strike. When KODK halted I sold them up 1,000% still way OTM 😆

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  31. Replies
    1. Just in time, the KODK does have mega velocity when it moves.

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    2. We will have fun with KODK in future but for now daily chart is not great. It is holding above the 50 dma, but I don't think for long time...

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  32. Looks like 3374 then 3460 by friday monday

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  33. What we need is VIX 50 to 65. That would put spring into UVXY step.

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  34. I usually play uvxy at times like this, to risky right now. FOMC didn’t change anything, same message as before. No reason for a big drop right now, we need a catalyst. I feel spx goes down a bit more and then we go up in the interim. Tqqq has been a pretty good trade over the last couple of weeks.

    I bought my first block at 127. Will buy more of the opportunity presents itself tomorrow AM.

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  35. Gold is forming a very nice pennant. It's going to move soon...which way?

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    Replies
    1. If DX is basing for a rally then gold will probably move down

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  36. There we go. Volatility rearing it's head.

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  37. Expect 3 more weeks of volatility

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  38. SC, after the 21st, is Oct 15 the next turn?

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    Replies
    1. Yes that is right. For SPX the dates work, but don't line up exactly. SPX sold off before the September 8th turn. But is is close.

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    2. Thanks SC, I still have a high target in Oct, so 21st would be a good time for a low.

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  39. What is wrong with the pic. Last time at 3320 vix was 35 or so and uvxy also higher

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    Replies
    1. Whats wrong is they are manipulating uvxy it shoild be 30 on this drop

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  40. Yup. Even vix lis low . These are not good instruments. Spy or qqq puts would have been better yesterday

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  41. And another thing. This Snowflake IPO. The US market is so mature that they have run out of names for companies. They have to resort to calling things Snowflake. These companies don't produce anything. "cloud computing?" Your head would have to be in clouds to put money in.

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    Replies
    1. are you saying your track record is better than Buffett?
      pretty sure he sold half at the top though....

      Blow off top into election....

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    2. Buffet had hardly anything.

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  42. VIX spikes when SPX is near a bottom in time in these situations. The fact VIX is low says SPX is not near a bottom in TIME.

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  43. Replies
    1. SC:
      what prices do you see for the S&p500 in October with a vix at 50

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    2. It'll be lower but not dramatically lower for SPX. This is more about volatility than price decline for SPX.

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  44. Uvxu is crap im my opinion i will short this pig at 35

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    Replies
    1. if it gets to 35 ... I'll be going on a nice mexican vacation I tell ya what :) ...

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    2. Sami, you are right most of the contango is factored in now, but it did take a toll. UVXY took quite a decay last few weeks with VIX holding quite well.

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    3. The fact that vix hasn't jumped at these lows we keep revisiting .. tells me we got alot more to fall before we bottom.... it won't bottom till we see a big spike in fear/vix

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  45. SPX 3,350 support cracked. Now support becomes resistance.

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    Replies
    1. Agreed... a daily close below 3300 would seal the deal

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  46. sc,

    Heavily Manipulated ETF

    Louie is right ----something spectacular will be released by early next week

    support is 3200---3450 is the top

    Let the games begin!

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  47. I can wait 3 weeks for UVXY at 35

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  48. Clear distribution happening in the markets with retail buying and institutions dumping. Sign of times to come?

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  49. not gonna lie... UVXY is definitely starting to test my patience...
    100 point move down on the spx and... ugh....

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  50. Bought more tqqq, 119.8, 116.9 avg 119.98

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  51. I believe that spx could reach 3600
    By Oct 2nd week

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  52. I think the drop will come from higher level

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  53. Si im thinking 3450 then 3200 then 3600

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  54. Central bank is printing money
    Markets will rip hire

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  55. Election more important now than Fed. Reason to go down now is so can go up later towards Election

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  56. https://northmantrader.com/2020/09/17/vix-uprising/

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  57. Here comes #2. Hurricane Teddy:

    "The National Hurricane Center wrote Hurricane Teddy’s peak winds had increased 20 mph since the last advisory at 11 a.m., rapidly intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph maximum sustained winds. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, and the Hurricane Center predicts its winds to peak around 150 mph before likely fluctuations in intensity into the weekend."

    "There is some chance Teddy could strike Bermuda and then northern New England toward the middle of next week, while the gulf system could be a problem for coastal Texas and the northern Gulf Coast around the same time.

    The threat of new storms comes during the busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record. Twenty named storms have formed and, after the likely Wilfred, forecasters will be forced to draw from the Greek alphabet for naming additional storms. That’s happened only once before, in 2005, the busiest season on record."

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  58. Added UVXY premarket $19.15.

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  59. https://youtu.be/d-ABIIZV3vA

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  60. Im thinking today up and monday up
    And next week down hardim thinking monday at least 3429

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  61. Vix aint acting like a drop is coming maybe next week

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  62. SPX 3,338 has lost the 50 dma which is at 3,343.

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    Replies
    1. SC - SPX is certainly going down - any targets? 3150-3200? UVXY is not budging...do we need a limit down move for it to get moving lol?

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  63. Uvxy getting slamed in the ass
    This does not make any sense in my head

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  64. Guys

    the line in the sand is NDX--10850---

    if we drop below that level --close --two days in a row below that level--there is small support at 10350--major support is at 9,900---

    let the games begin!

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  65. without this being broke---we are just stuck in a range!

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  66. that is exactly right------we are just stuck here!

    The beatings will continue to morale improves!

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