Iran's top General Soleimani was assassinated, 176 people were killed when Iran shot down a passenger plane by mistake, and Kobe Bryant is dead.
Coronavirus has infected 17,205 with a rising death toll of 361 people. 60 million people are quarantined in China. Countries are quickly closing their borders with the Chinese. China is becoming isolated, and Coronavirus continues to infect people exponentially. Fears of a global pandemic went viral.
This is fear, and after fear comes panic. The selling will only end when panic selling occurs.
In January, the VIX futures curve normalized and moved into backwardation going into March, 2020. UVXY/TVIX have the advantage with the curve, underpriced relative to VIX.
Daily
UVXY bottomed out, and has been rising in accordance with the pattern. Price and timing of the turn were accurate.
2 day Chart
Before:
November 14th, 2019 analysis:
2 day Chart
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the world may be “dangerously” unprepared for the next pandemic. At a World Health Organization executive board meeting in Geneva, Tedros urged the 196 member countries to “invest in preparedness,” not “panic.”
ReplyDeleteThanks SC!
ReplyDeleteYou are most welcome. Cheers my friend!
DeleteSPX is incredibly weak, and will not be able to surpass today's high of 3,268, but it will be retested again soon. Plan to short that level aggressively.
ReplyDelete3,200 SPX lower low soon, probably later this week.
SPX is breaking, and will be choppy to start with then fall precipitously to the 200 day moving average.
Selloff target 3,080 SPX month-end February.
looks like we blew 3268 out of water
DeleteNice looking charts.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like we can make a good profit.
Thank you SC!
It's going to be great!
DeleteSC what's TVIX target for 3200 SPX?
ReplyDeleteProbably in the $60's.
DeleteTVIX will really come alive after the market makes the big drops. That's when fear and panic hit hard.
ReplyDeleteTo start with TVIX will move modestly, and slowly. People will ask why it isn't moving.
Lol tvix down from 59 the short could have netted us 14 points clearly in my eyes it moves down faster there is more money made on the short 80 I will short this if we hit 3100
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/xBIoFED
ReplyDeleteIt's important to just wait until everything has lined up properly.
ReplyDeleteCorrect me if I'm wrong, but you see 3300 more or less, then a drop to 3080 by end of Feb? What is the price target for uvxy? 24ish?
ReplyDeleteWhat price are looking for today?
ReplyDeleteSC still looking to buy tvix today?
ReplyDeleteSPX has already surpassed your 3,268 level by 30 points and is at 3,298 this morning. This correction will be over this week or the next with one more down thrust (capitulation), which will be bought with both hands. UVXY is very weak and will NOT go above $21 as you project.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72zNOlcbo8A
ReplyDeleteYes, SPX gapped over my resistance this morning. It may effect timing. This is why it's best to wait until we see everything unfold.
ReplyDeleteI won't take a position until satisfied with the setup. Until then wait.
dec 3rd and 4th gap will be filled question when
ReplyDeletethat gao area is 3070 to 3080
ReplyDeleteEven today I notice SVXY lower high compared with SPX.
ReplyDeleteAnother warning sign...
I'll let things mature further, but the warnings are mounting.
ReplyDeleteStill early
DeleteSC is it time to scale in shorts with SPX retesting its 3338 high?
Deletesc dont you think a 2 day chart is to short to determine direction?
ReplyDeleteI'm expe ting new highs then a big smash down
ReplyDeleteI doubt we will see new highs - https://invst.ly/pr2xf
DeleteWell we are very close here maybe double too spx
DeleteTransports dont look good
Qqq hit new highdji back in channel
The QQQ as made a new high and the comp
DeleteTVIX is a trading dream I bought a that 4360 and sold at 46
Tvix seems to be down so much more than the vix
ReplyDeleteThis has to be close
ReplyDeletethis was easy to see coming.....wall street has picked their winner and they were not going to let a sell off take his night and acquittal from their pick.....
ReplyDeleteI entered at an average off 48.0 on TVIX yesterday, SC - on your chosen date. Its looking like you were pretty darn close. VIX coming alive.
ReplyDeleteYou can bet your farm that you will see new highs. Nasdaq is already hit an all time high. There is plenty of momentum left in the market with capital flows from Europe and now China to add to that. Welcome to the final "exuberance phase" of the markets where DOW can get to 34,000 to 35,000 by year end or even higher.
ReplyDeleteyou make it sound like it will go straight there
Deletetrump will not be impeached market will break new highs then drop
Deletespx could be headed for 3417
DeleteYes, SPX will see new highs but SVXY looks much weaker relatively.
ReplyDeleteSC - are you waiting on higher SPX prices to short? We could have a possible double top if it reverses here.
DeleteHere's a chart: https://imgur.com/a/ZNtZYzg
ReplyDeleteSc when you buying tvix
ReplyDeleteJust basically waiting as the prices settle. VIX is looking strong overall as it consolidates. TVIX probably around $39 so it just need a little time. Maybe another week or so. It is getting ready to make another run.
ReplyDeleteBitcoin is coming close to the 10,000 target. Time to exit. Doesn't mean it can't see higher, but we caught the bulk of this last move.
ReplyDeleteWill post bitcoin chart soon.
Sold GBTC $11.80.
ReplyDeleteGood call
ReplyDeleteSc what is your prognosis on tvix
ReplyDeleteTVIX looks good. I am just waiting for it to decline a little. It needs more time.
DeleteThe VIX chart is good, and expecting VIX 22 in March. TVIX $65 is a good initial target.
ReplyDeleteWill plan to try entry around $39.
Yea that's what I was thinkin 2 I dhoryed it twice today
ReplyDeleteSo what about the big TVIX target?
ReplyDeleteYes, I am confident it will be hit, but I also recognize that things are moving slowly so we have to have patience and with a realistic time frame.
I actually see TVIX looking larger than I thought. However, I also this taking more time which is fine.
ReplyDeleteComing into this year the election was number 1 importance. Now that has been turned upside down. Coronavirus has gripped the market in importance for the coming months...
ReplyDeleteThe election of course will be on focus later in the year.
I told you this would be an exciting year!!!
What does it mean tvix looking larger
ReplyDeleteIt means in my opinion TVIX is getting ready to make a move larger in percentage than what I have posted.
DeleteHowever, again, this is going to take time.
You’re right, your numbers are very exciting!
ReplyDeleteR u expecting all time high on spx
ReplyDelete3400 then correction.
DeleteWhat is your target for uvxy?
ReplyDeleteThe short entry is coming soon about a week.
ReplyDeleteSPX double top target is ~ 3,060ish on a break of 3212...close to your 3,080 target for later this month...
DeleteSc how high spx
ReplyDeleteI'll take s closer look
Deletei shorted this piece of crap at 44.5 waiting for 39 or lower
ReplyDeletelooks like to me we might get over 3475 we get through that we go through 3650 and there is a possibility 4000 plus by end of year
all we had to do is short tvix at 58 and hold it for 10 days and be up 17 points crazy shit
ReplyDeleteIt goes up and down.
DeleteSC tvix still $39 to buy?
ReplyDeleteI don't think you have a frigging clue about this market
ReplyDeleteListen peanut butter Who are you talking to
DeleteSorry, but SC has been spot on in this market refusing to short the market as it ascends...don't take offense as this is just a sign of the nearing turn...
DeleteBought TVIX $41.20.
ReplyDeleteA pop here to $45 looks possible, and afterwards TVIX should see lower $39 at least.
DeleteIn about a week TVIX low and then a parabolic run to $65.
ReplyDeleteI wish that would happen
Deletecovered short in tvix and uvxy
ReplyDeleteI would exit at $45 but you know even at this price TVIX is attractive with $65 target.
ReplyDeleteWe may even uncut the previous low of $38 a little, but still within 30 days it looks great with $65 target.
Bitcoin has hit the 10k target! I have the next chart coming with target.
ReplyDeleteSc u think march will be bad for spx
ReplyDeleteThank you.
ReplyDeleteI think is the year to BTC and GLD.
I have now a stop at 9000
I think they can to down a litle in this 2 months, but is up... I think.
Martin Armstrong wrote to say that the low is in as of Jan. 31st. SPX is not going below 3,200. Whoever is waiting for SPX to hit 3,020 might have to wait a couple of years. GOOD LUCK!
ReplyDelete3200 is a far way down TVIX and UV XY could explode to the upside if that happens I will be a big buyer at 39
DeleteAnd Armstrong is always right, ha! Read this blog and come to your senses. SC: keep u the good work. I enjoy it.
ReplyDeletehttps://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/
ARMSTRONG LICKS BALLS
ReplyDeleteI sure the held* that short on tvix piece of crap
ReplyDeleteBought tvix 38.90
ReplyDeleteBought 38.75
ReplyDeleteSC, we got $38, is it ready to run to $65? or do you still see lower until next week?
ReplyDeleteTVIX hit $38 which was the previous low, but a lower low is still possible. A few more days maybe..
DeleteSc can u please post new charts for spx and gbtc thanks
ReplyDeleteSPX has now been posted! Thanks
DeleteSc you are looking for 45 first correct then maybe 38 to 39 again
ReplyDeleteYes
DeleteOut of tvix
ReplyDeleteSC: Your target TVIX implies you also have an idea about how high the VIX schould go. Can you give a reasonable target? The reason for asking: in my country it is impossible to invest in TVIX (by law), but it possible in deriviates of the VIX. Thanks in advance!
ReplyDeletewhat country are you from?
DeleteProbably Europe, I am in Europe and classified as retail investor so it is not allowed to trade US ETFs... they do not provide KID so that the investor be informed for the risks:)))))
DeleteIf you are in Europe alternative is VIXL....
Yes, the VIX rectangle chart continues to look good. The upper boundary is at 24 VIX. Let's say VIX 22 on the next run into March.
DeleteLooking out further the 60 VIX is also likely to be hit.
ReplyDeleteTo bring down the world markets, the communist government in Italy must fall, the government that appeals to Europe, a slave government that accepts all the bullying of Brussels
on illegal immigration from Africa to avoid problems with public debt. The exchange is, Italy makes a low voice with immigrants without giving problems to Europe and
Europe thanks by giving economic flexibility to Rome. If this government falls, however, and it seems that little is missing because one of the majority allies in parliament wants to leave,
Salvini's right wing will mathematically win in the elections and political war will be entered into with Brussels with possible exit from the euro. At that point a Europe in political crisis will do
collapse all markets, including the American ones.
L'Italia ha venduto la sua libertà politica, la sua anima, a Bruxelles in cambio di aria per respirare in un clima di sofferenza per debito pubblico troppo alto. Bruxelles si è scelta un Presidente del Parlamento europeo ( Sassoli ) che è un comunista, nonostante in Italia abbia vinto la destra di Salvini alle ultime elezioni europee. L'Europa ha paura di Salvini l'unico vero ago delle bilancia per la sopravvivenza di un Europa ormai inutile e grassa, grassa di corruzione e alti stipendi. L'Europa col governo italiano attuale, un governo rubato alla destra di Salvini, vanno mano per mano come fidanzati, ma solo per convenienze reciproche, immihgrazione africana che resta in Italia e non va a disturbare il resto dell'Europa, in cambio di rinvio procedure di infrazione per debito pubblico troppo alto. Libertà ...Libertà ...Libertà ....
Deleteare you still looking to exit $45?
ReplyDeleteYes, probably this coming week.
Deletehttps://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
ReplyDeleteThis is the Europe that is afraid of Salvini and as for the American Democrats who want Trump headlights with justice, the same is happening in Italy and Europe. Communist judges clear the way for leftist parties by accusing an interior minister of kidnapping for not having docked in an Italian port, an NGO ship full of illegal Africans. Poor Italy, a country in civil war.
Louis: "what country are you from?"
ReplyDeleteHolland that is. The reason -yes laugh at loud- there is not a dutch translation of this product(read prospectus). Therefore investors have to be protected, because of the possible losses they will endure.
Most of the things you trade in and out, Louis, are therefore no longer available in my country. Trading the VIX is possible but only during daytime. So its hard, but hey, it keeps you on your toes.
From staten island
DeleteCirculate on your blogs, make this information viral. France and Germany keep Italian communist politicians by the ball, give them economic flexibility in exchange for silence and acceptance of everything Brussels decides, especially in terms of African immigration. When he ruled Salvini prevented him everything, no economic flexibility because Salvini refused the docking of NGO ships full of illegal African immigration, so Salvini was not going well, they forced him to resign asking for new elections, but then the President of the Republic Mattarella, communist, instead of new political elections, it has formed a new government, but this time of the left, the one that governs now. In Italy currently govern parties that no longer represent Italians, they are the minority in the country, but remain attached with glue to the chairs because they know that with new elections they would be blown away. Italy is no longer a democratic country.
ReplyDelete