A down week this coming week looks probable. Within the next several weeks the measured move should finish.
A two month selloff is anticipated.
Weekly
Saturday, February 15, 2020
$SPX - Weekly Measured Move
SPX has nearly completed a measured move on the weekly chart. The rally has been weaker this time than the first rally early in 2019.
A down week this coming week looks probable. Within the next several weeks the measured move should finish.
A two month selloff is anticipated.
Weekly
A down week this coming week looks probable. Within the next several weeks the measured move should finish.
A two month selloff is anticipated.
Weekly
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SC is the target the purple line? 2975?
ReplyDeleteThat is the longer term support. It's a target, but we should look at things one step at a time.
DeleteSc what will be the caus . Really have to be bad news. They dont let it fall 10 points
ReplyDeleteCoronavirus
DeleteDo you think a move back to test that upper blue dotted line? Lower? https://imgur.com/a/ApSndzg
ReplyDeleteThank you. Yes, I think so.
DeleteLet's watch this.
Are you suggesting we are topping out around 3450 in early March? But in previous post, you suggest the selling climax is March 13th, also in the previous post, the down move seems last about a little over one month, now it is two month. Can you clarify? I am confused. This is my understanding from the latest post: In the next two weeks, market is in topping process, choppy but slowly moving up, might touch 3450. After two weeks, market will go down for two month till early May, is it my understanding correct? By the way, what is your downside target?
ReplyDeleteSPX doesn't have to hit 3,450. It could fall short, but the point is that the market repeats these similar size moves. Now that it is close, we should watch for a reversal.
DeleteI am still expecting selling into March 13th. Also I am expecting another decline in April. We can see several legs lower.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete.... I reiterate the invitation for those who have not seen him (or seen only 1 time) to relate ... and then take good care of each step (chronology in the first place) of the film "The Big Bet" (on Netflix is located) Before seeing the films and asking a couple of questions about the current situation compared to that of 2007, I invite the reader to read this article which highlights how the percentage of unpaid Sbprime Auto Loans in the US is at the maximum and in line with the level reached in 2007. he bet (Baum, Burry etc) against the market he was mocked, mocked, criticized, scrambled .... even then the situation of those who said that something would happen was seen as an idiot ... .. then these "contrarians" became ... of the Central Banks is now different and this phase could continue again but the very heavy (and perhaps even more) effects of the Corona Virus will arrive in a couple of months (first quarterly of 2020) and a At these current levels of insolvency, I wonder how an average reasonable person does not position himself with a consistently prudent attitude on the market. At least critical and opportunistic.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnYrU6dt7uQ&feature=em-uploademail
ReplyDeleteSC, maybe helpful?
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/VolProfessor
Thanks! Let me look at this.
DeleteSc. Looks like e drone talking 3450 to 3500 now
ReplyDeleteThe real catalyst for the collapse of world stock exchanges, Wally bought, will be the fall of the government in Italy. Europe will tremble, with Salvini's right to the Italian government, Europe will have a snake at home and will only be able to fight it heavily especially on the economic side. This behavior will push Salvini to seek confrontation by threatening an exit from the euro. As Draghi said, a euro country is not expected to come out of the euro, if it does, Europe will disintegrate.
ReplyDeleteAll government seems to be deteriorating these days. The trust has been broken...
DeleteExactly, they are at loggerheads because the left wants to cancel the previous safety laws made by Salvini, you know how the left is, especially in Italy, it is more with gypsies, thieves and unemployed than with Italian entrepreneurs and good people.
DeleteI believe a big drop coming in march
ReplyDeletePossibly 3000 and if that happened that would be a buy
Bottom line it looks like we are close to a tipping point. Patience may be needed but March and April selloffs likely.
ReplyDeleteWe will start to hear that coronavirus is contained or isolated to China.
ReplyDeleteWhen that occurs the time is coming to short more aggressively..
Another chart is coming related to timing. I noticed an interesting relationship.
ReplyDeleteAnother date I am watching is March 6th for a high.
ReplyDeleteLook since the world stock exchanges started to rise. Look at the times. In mid-August 2019, Salvini resigns and threatens elections. Mib stock index is at 19900. From mid-August 2019 with the announcement of President Mattarella of a new government, but of the left, instead of new elections, Europe applauds and begins to help Italy economically, which before with Salvini did not. Our MIB has since gone up from 19900 up to now to 25250. All world stock exchanges have gone up with him. Is it a coincidence that little Italy managed to do this? No!! it is because Europe knows what it was risking with Salvini and the past danger has given great confidence to the whole world.
ReplyDeleteSox index has tom demark trade date 9-13-9 sequential sell
ReplyDeleteBought tvix 38.75
ReplyDeleteHowever people vote, with decreasing effectiveness but they do. Equity holders are 25% scarce of the US population but the majority is owned by 10%. For 30 years the saving rate of the weakest part of the population has been negative, they have increasingly sunk into debt. Generation X faces the world of work with a student debt that has plunged them for decades. They will vote en masse in November and not for Trump. Does the Fed buy equity while the government cuts health and education? They can do it but people vote, then one day the cleaver arrives, also in America, a country with three hundred million firearms.
ReplyDeleteSTORIES FROM A GREAT COUNTRY, ESPECIALLY STABLE ... According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which is part of the US Department of Health, in 2017 there were 39,773 deaths from firearms, with a growing trend in the last twenty years . Of these, more than half were suicides (23,854), while the murders were 14,542, the accidental deaths 486 and the deaths in the war or by legitimate armed intervention 553. Let's focus on the murders: in 2017 there were a total of 19,510 in the country, therefore those committed with firearms (14,542) represent the great majority, three quarters of the total. A comparison with Italy. Just to give an idea of the size of the phenomenon, about 330 million people reside in the United States, about 60 million in Italy: five and a half times more. On the other hand, there were about fifty-five times more murders in 2017 (19,510 in the US and 357 in Italy). In other words, the murders in the US - normalizing the population - are ten times more frequent than in Italy ... COLOR NOTE but you want to put it, NASDAQ flies.
ReplyDeleteSC - given where we are cycle wise. Best to just hold TVIX till target of 65 in March?
ReplyDeleteIt may be best to exit TVIX and plan to re-enter around March 6th.
DeleteWe're getting close, and the decline is very shallow for TVIX, but still I expect it to settle a little lower.
March does look interesting!
New chart posted!
ReplyDelete