UVXY is likely forming a low this Thanksgiving week, and up into December 13th with the next Tariffs in the China trade war hitting on December 15th.
30min Chart
Expect selling into Wednesday's impeachment hearing which will occur one day after the House Intelligence Committee votes on a report that will make the case for the president’s impeachment.
Notice there we now have Bitcoin in alignment. Correlated with equities. It needs to consolidate first, but Bitcoin getting ready to run in the second half of December.
Louis. I don't really understand puts and calls. Can you let me know what this person is thinking will happen in January. I assume a test of 2980. Thanks much!
Bought UVXY $14.65.
ReplyDeleteUVXY target $16's due December 4th or 5th.
ReplyDeleteYes I bought 14.55
DeleteSVXY is clearly overbought now.
ReplyDeleteSc. Spx will pull to 3080 and go higher
ReplyDeleteYes
DeleteSo uvxy 11. In jan. What is your target for spx
ReplyDeleteYes, January is going to be an exciting month. The target will be posted in two weeks. First we have December.
DeleteWhat do you expect to happen between the 5th and the 13th sc? A bounce then a final low?
ReplyDeleteYes, exactly Joe.
DeleteSPX is at a high and will drop for two weeks into the next tarrif date which is December 15th.
ReplyDeleteSVXY overbought and drops to $59 next.
ReplyDeleteTheres your 59 good call
DeleteHere's comes the selling...
ReplyDeleteWe need more selling then that
DeleteIt's coming..
DeleteHow is vix up 5.4% and uvxy only up about 1.5 ?
ReplyDeleteIt's the same issue with the VIX futures curve. It's a steep curve until January. There's a cushioning effect.
DeleteSC: Any thoughts on natural gas?
ReplyDeleteYa, I'm watching that too. Hit bottom of trendline from August. Same with WTIC, hit bottom trendline from October
DeleteI don't follow natural gas that closely, but the turns are generally correlated with equities.
DeleteSo natural gas formed a high in November and expect a low in December. Probably low soon in the first half of December.
It did fill down to October. Maybe a little lower but not much. Second half of December can perform better.
Expect selling into Wednesday's impeachment hearing which will occur one day after the House Intelligence Committee votes on a report that will make the case for the president’s impeachment.
ReplyDeleteI try to base my bi or selling On technical events not all rumors
ReplyDeleteYes always, this was text book short entry. Markets selling off overbought conditions, but we also had the correct timing coinciding with events.
DeleteI'm hoping for 16 on UV XY and then I'll short this piece Of crap
ReplyDeleteTVIX split is complete. Good opportunity there.
ReplyDeleteFor a big short
DeleteIF SVXY hits 59 I will short TVIX
DeleteSold uvxy at 15.90 and spxs 14.79
ReplyDeleteWhen I see The VIX up $2 UV XY update the 99 cents is disturbing to me that's why I dumped it
ReplyDeleteIt's the VIX futures, but yes generally good to be conservative until January because of the curve.
DeleteHa ha theres your 16 good call
DeleteNotice there we now have Bitcoin in alignment. Correlated with equities. It needs to consolidate first, but Bitcoin getting ready to run in the second half of December.
ReplyDeleteVIX tested the July low and rectangle support and, as expected, we see the strong reaction.
ReplyDeleteMost of this leg down is done. A little more selling tomorrow with the impeachment vote.
ReplyDeletewhat price are you willing to unload UV XY
DeleteProbably see mid to high $16 near the orange line.
DeleteSome one bought Jan 2980 puts spx in tune of 31million bucks 16000 options
ReplyDeleteJanuary will be an interesting month...
DeleteLouis. I don't really understand puts and calls. Can you let me know what this person is thinking will happen in January. I assume a test of 2980. Thanks much!
DeleteToday or tomorrow plan to switch out UVXY and into SVXY.
ReplyDeletesmart choice if you could short tvix would be a good choice aswell that might move down hard
Deletewow right on the money congrats
DeleteHaha, thanks Louis! This is very nice.
Deletesc so you are think that SPY could be bottom here and then run up until january before next leg down?
ReplyDeleteThere will be a strong bounce starting tomorrow. I'm still expecting lower December 13th. Other than that yes, agree.
DeleteShorted uvxy at 18
ReplyDeleteBrutal... another day of vix up 18% uvxy up 14%
ReplyDeletethis vehicle is useless...
It's okay. Just the VIX futures curve. This is just a warm up. In January the issue will be resolved.
DeleteI know Sami it is annoying, but the patience will be rewarded.
DeleteSold UVXY $17.80.
ReplyDeleteBought SVXY $59.10.
ReplyDeleteExpect SVXY to hit $63 by Tuesday.
Deletesc whats your target on svxy
ReplyDeleteUVXY down to $15 by Tuesday.
DeleteGreat
DeleteSC.. what are you seeing for UVXY after it hits 15 by tuesday?
ReplyDeleteThank you
$19 or $20 UVXY by Friday December 13th.
DeleteFriday the 13th haha. Scary...
DeleteIt's going to be a nightmare
DeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete