This morning was probably an entry for SVXY, even now is decent. It still looks to be heading higher. Or just wait for TVIX to come down in a few days.
There is no etf tracking the VIX itself. All are tied directly to VIX futures.
There are VIX options.
I agree it can be annoying that there is no direct relationship with the VIX, but it's okay. Yes UVXY/TVIX underperform VIX at times, but they also outperform at other times. For example TVIX more than doubled from August to October 2011 during a period that VIX did not gain at all. On the whole move TVIX gained 700% with VIX only 300%.
The issue with the curve will be resolved in January. So we won't have the wait long. In January a large move is coming and TVIX will likely outperform VIX on a percentage basis.
your now grasping at straws, basing a trading decision on a tariff possibility, heck, there is more of a chance the british vote lead to a little down move
You should take a look at 4th year of first year president....second best time to invest in first term potus....
What is reality, wall street doesn't want a change in potus....they will run it up thru august of next year, they are going to not let a democrat win.....good luck shorting this market.....
SC; your dates keep changing... The rally won’t stop until the end of the year... SCDecember 9, 2019 at 12:56 PM TVIX could see as high as $90 by December 18th
18th is the VIX futures roll over date so that is probably the temporary low for TVIX & UVXY. Another date that is close is a Bradley turn date on the 20th.
Thanks SC, I was thinking 20 UVXY myself for the 13th when we got the last move.
ReplyDeleteYes, $20 UVXY looks about right.
DeleteTVIX dropped to the middle. There may be some reaction here but expect it to fall further this week.
ReplyDeleteUvxy 15 to 20 then down to 12 correct
DeleteUVXY $15 to $20, then $10 to end the Year 2019.
DeleteSC - are you expecting SPX at 3200 at year-end?
DeleteHigher high at year end for SPX, probably that is close. The santa claus rally is definitely coming.
DeleteSold SVXY $61.25.
ReplyDeleteIf SVXY settles enough here it may make sense to re-enter or just wait for the entry on TVIX or UVXY.
ReplyDeleteCycles are down for SPX.
Sc r u expecting new high here or stall
ReplyDeleteLower high this week.
Deletego higher, new high coming
ReplyDeleteThe second half of December looks positive, but until December 13th still expecting a lower low SPX.
ReplyDeleteSc what price will you renter svxy
ReplyDeleteNow or do you mean around December 13th?
DeleteNow and dec 13th
ReplyDeleteThis morning was probably an entry for SVXY, even now is decent. It still looks to be heading higher. Or just wait for TVIX to come down in a few days.
DeleteDecember 13th SVXY $57.
Deletecovered uvxy and tvix short even though it looks like 14.50 is coming and 57 is comingon tvix
ReplyDeletesc haha your target on uvxy was met good job!!!
ReplyDeleteYes, great job SC, target's are getting hit fast.
ReplyDeleteSee, isn't this fun!!!
ReplyDeleteSCNovember 25, 2019 at 6:42 AM
"December is set to be an excellent month for short term trading - the best strategy!"
Look for entry TVIX/UVXY soon, today or Monday.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking Monday because we could go 3160
ReplyDeleteThere's very little time left on this rally. Maybe monday better but the heaviest selling will occur next week.
ReplyDeleteNot sure of what to make of this slow motion slide
ReplyDeleteSPX might actually close green today. For SPX it is slow, more interesting is volatility which is just the opposite, quite active today.
DeleteSC, is there a derivative one can use to bet on Vix on day to day bases?
ReplyDeletetvix and uvxy etc seem to be somewhat on a world of their own.. vix up 12% today... tvix thats suppose to be 200% of it.. is up 7%...
I get the futures curve, but is there another tool one can use that actually follows the vix 100%?
Thank you
There is no etf tracking the VIX itself. All are tied directly to VIX futures.
DeleteThere are VIX options.
I agree it can be annoying that there is no direct relationship with the VIX, but it's okay. Yes UVXY/TVIX underperform VIX at times, but they also outperform at other times. For example TVIX more than doubled from August to October 2011 during a period that VIX did not gain at all. On the whole move TVIX gained 700% with VIX only 300%.
The issue with the curve will be resolved in January. So we won't have the wait long. In January a large move is coming and TVIX will likely outperform VIX on a percentage basis.
I have identified several options trades coming up which look excellent.
DeleteA strategy that looks appealing is to build a core position in either UVXY or SVXY then add an options position for increased upside with little risk.
2020 is the perfect setup for volatility. So for now it is what it is, and that is fine.
DeleteNext year is going to be amazing...
uvxy still going to 10 by new year?
ReplyDeleteYes
DeleteBought TVIX $68.35.
ReplyDeleteHate to chase, but $80 TVIX this week looks achievable. Next week possibly closer to $90.
DeleteThe low is due December 16th to 18th.
uvxy 20 ?
DeleteYes. $19 to $20.
DeleteSorry SC,
ReplyDeleteBut the 16th is Monday.The 18th is Wed.How does this add up to $90 next week?
TVIX could see as high as $90 by December 18th.
Deleteif it hits 90 i will short it
DeleteDid you mean the low for the spx
ReplyDeleteYes
DeleteTVIX mid support around $66 today.
ReplyDeletePossible small up day today for SPX. The deepest selling coming soon, probably tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteSold TVIX. $70.85.
ReplyDeleteTry to reenter $67.
ReplyDeleteAll sorts of rumours and innuendo coming out in the news.
ReplyDeleteStay with the charts!!
They scared you out
ReplyDeleteDumped uvxy 16.60
ReplyDeleteWe have a bunch of bipolar politicians would you be great for volatility
ReplyDeleteYes, conditions are configuring for extreme volatility...
DeleteSc you look at the by this back at a cheaper level?
ReplyDeleteYes, try for $67.
DeleteStrong reaction to the $67's.
ReplyDeleteNotice TVIX was rejected at the gap this morning.
ReplyDeleteBought TVIX. $67.95.
ReplyDeleteyou mean 69.75
ReplyDeleteNo sorry bought earlier. Plan to hold now.
DeleteThere may be more chances.
Deleteoh ok
ReplyDeletewas a great trade i tried to buy 10000 shares but they didnt give it to me
ReplyDeleteYes it's tricky. Moving very quickly.
DeleteCycles are down into next week December 18th.
ReplyDeleteits weird how tvix and uvxy up a penny each
ReplyDeleteIt's starting to look like may only fill the gap at $76 TVIX this week. Higher TVIX next week but plan to exit this week.
ReplyDeleteSC - do you plan to re-enter TVIX early next week then?
DeleteMaybe, but it's best as we get closer to December 18th to focus more on SVXY entry rather than TVIX/UVXY.
DeleteWe'll see.
I was a bit surprised TVIX went as high as it did last week. That move was exaggerated.
DeleteSold TVIX $69.65.
ReplyDeleteI don't like how the TVIX was so high pre market today because the move may have already happened. Play it safe.
ReplyDeletesc going are you going for the tripple trade today lol
ReplyDeleteCould have
DeleteMay see the $66 TVIX
ReplyDeleteTHE PROBLEM IS ARE WE TOPPING TODAY THE 12TH 13TH OR 18TH
DeleteThe low is still December 16th to 18th.
DeleteSO I GUESSS I WILL SHORT UVXY AROUND THE 18TH DOWN TO 10
DeleteYes, that is the dominant move.
DeleteThis is actually very simple. Chart coming...
ReplyDeleteHere comes the nightmare...
ReplyDeletehttps://youtu.be/xR8oke8rzp8
DID U BUY TVIX?
DeletePlan to enter before the close or tomorrow morning.
DeleteDown days tomorrow and Friday with tomorrow the worst.
DeleteLet the games begin!
DeleteHahaha
DeleteUV XYA at the bottom of the channel
ReplyDeleteMaybe I'll buy a 100000 UV XY here then if it goes lower another 100000
ReplyDeleteI have a funny feeling trump will delay the tariff
ReplyDeleteUltimately the tariffs will not be an issue.
DeleteBought TVIX $66.90.
ReplyDeleteThe TVIX mid support (orange) is around $65 tomorrow. So possibly that could be tested.
ReplyDeletei guess 59 then up on tvix
Deletei am wonderingg if thats the bottom in tvix?
Deletebought more uvxy at 14.48
DeleteCould also hold TVIX until December 18th anyway.
ReplyDeleteyour now grasping at straws, basing a trading decision on a tariff possibility, heck, there is more of a chance the british vote lead to a little down move
ReplyDeleteYou should take a look at 4th year of first year president....second best time to invest in first term potus....
What is reality, wall street doesn't want a change in potus....they will run it up thru august of next year, they are going to not let a democrat win.....good luck shorting this market.....
theres gonna always be volatility my average uvxy was 14.60 i made money i will short any pop on volatility
Deletedelay of tarrifs
ReplyDeletepiece of shit the only way is to short this crap
ReplyDeletelong uvxy 14.88
ReplyDeleteHow is this even legal. They will never let this fall.
ReplyDeletesc whats your prognosis now that we blasted through 65?
ReplyDeleteStill the same
Deleteok kool wiil buy back
Deletevix aint jivin with tvix and uvxy
ReplyDeletei am out uvxy 15.o5
ReplyDeleteTVIX still looks good for the pop into December 18th. Nothing new.
ReplyDeletewhen you say pop what price 75
DeleteSVXY forming lower high. Next week it drops to touch the 50 day moving average at $59.50.
DeleteVery simple.
long uvxy 14.80
DeleteSC - Are we going to get a larger pullback in SPX next week with the way it's gotten stretched to the upside?
Deletelol what a pig today
ReplyDeleteSCDecember 11, 2019 at 11:53 AM
ReplyDeleteDown days tomorrow and Friday with tomorrow the worst.
I am out fu this piece of shit I will short if it pops 14.65
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/cYZo3Kv
ReplyDeleteBought UV XY at 14 I'm a glutton for punishment still made money though
ReplyDeleteBought more 13.93
ReplyDeleteBought tvix at 57.10
ReplyDeleteeverybody hiding behind there desk lol
ReplyDeletesc are you gonna ride this down like last time?
ReplyDeletesvxy broke a new high now what
ReplyDeleteWow svxy breaking out
ReplyDeleteBought tvix 51.66
ReplyDeleteSC what is after jan. When uvxy hits 10. Looks like this market wont give up 10 spx pints
ReplyDeleteJanuary very negative.
DeleteBought uvxy 12.80
ReplyDelete18th high instead of low?
ReplyDeleteStill expecting low.
Deletesc since we broke the orange pitchfork what is the prognosis now
ReplyDeletehttps://www.screencast.com/t/0de3GCxdR
ReplyDeleteSC - are we still looking for SVXY to roll over into the 18th or is it going to be into Xmas now?
ReplyDeleteYes expect a dip into the 18th, then the Christmas rally will begin.
DeleteTVIX and UVXY targets are valid, but not for this month. They'll hit in January.
ReplyDeleteSC; your dates keep changing... The rally won’t stop until the end of the year...
ReplyDeleteSCDecember 9, 2019 at 12:56 PM
TVIX could see as high as $90 by December 18th
I agree, Santa Claus rally is coming.
Delete18th is the VIX futures roll over date so that is probably the temporary low for TVIX & UVXY. Another date that is close is a Bradley turn date on the 20th.
ReplyDeleteSo u expecting early jan uvxy 10 than fall in spx
ReplyDeleteYes
Deleteso you 66 buy was not for this month? it was for january
ReplyDeleteThe targets are for January
Deletesc are you gonna dump on 18th?
ReplyDeleteYes
DeleteDetailed charts are coming soon.
ReplyDeleteSC seems like we are going to be topping into the 18th if anything and will need to hold for a bigger pullback into xmas/year-end?
DeleteYear End rally is likely. The VIX Futures curve is against TVIX/UVXY until January.
DeleteStock block is going to 3350 by may of twenny twenny
ReplyDelete