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Tuesday, November 5, 2019

SVXY - Breakout!

SVXY has been able to breakout from the blue downtrend.  As a result it is likely heading higher in November.

Orange channel resistance is the November target.

Daily

73 comments:

  1. What are you gonna do sell UV XY at the bottom and By SVXY at the top?

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    1. Expect some better volatility in December.

      UVXY can go lower than people think in the short term heading into January. The problem is with the VIX Futures term structure. The January futures are in the 17's. VIX is 12. So UVXY is at a major disadvantage until January when the curve flattens.

      SVXY has the advantage until January.

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    2. I get it however we should drop hard hear then rip 2 upside when do you plan to sell and ag what price

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    3. Weren't the futures always like that since you bought it at 28

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    4. That's the problem the futures are getting more expensive into January. In October the futures were low. 14. So there was a window September and October for UVXY, and it had a good run, but for now that window has closed.

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  2. This is a beautiful thing for a volatility trader! We have volatility coming down prior to the Election. The most significant event for volatility in recent history.

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  3. SC: I take it that your 3015 forecast for this week is now off the table?

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    1. It still looks like SPX to come down. Let's see.

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  4. SC - I feel like bears are capitulating en masse right now...In your previous post you said we are in the VIX box range of 12-24...seems like we are basing at 12 for a move to 24 soon. Perhaps by your original Nov 19 turn date...hmm...with a santa rally to follow back up...

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    1. VIX is getting closer to a low. I'm expecting VIX low in two weeks followed by VIX up 10 weeks to a 20 high by February.

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  5. The chart says a one day wonder for UVXY can occur with SVXY dropping back towards the blue line before running higher.

    Could Trump's tax returns be about to be released???

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  6. SC, maybe a better strategy would be to short the indexes since they are very overbought with etfs then go long at the bottom. I use 2x etfs, works very well!
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU

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  7. At this point I would wait to short until Thanksgiving November 28. We have talked about it for a while, and the USMCA is coming, and that is a positive.

    "Mexico's top North American negotiator, Jesús Seade, is upbeat that the White House and lawmakers can reach an agreement on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) agreement before Thanksgiving.

    Seade is basing his optimism on conversations held with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer last week. Seade believes a vote on USMCA will come up in the House before the holiday."

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  8. It looks to me that SVXY has topped for now. My trusty BPSPX indicator is beginning to roll over, if that is confirmed in the next few days then I think we will see a switch to SPXU and UVXY. The market is holding up remarkably well this morning considering rumblings of the partial China deal being delayed (again).

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  9. SPX is up 30 points this week but SVXY hasn't budged. We could very easily see a repeat of January 2018 when stocks continued to rise to the end of the month, but VIX and VXX/UVXY also rose. SPX was up 6% in January 2018 and VIX went from 10 to 15, before hitting 50 on Feb 6.

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  10. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XB23SOVC9Y&feature=em-uploademail

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  11. Sold UVXY $18.25, TVIX $8.50.

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  12. SVXY likely heading for $61 soon. It has catching up to do with SPX, and it can get there quickly.

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    1. trading this for 2 points you should just short uvxy you will make alot more

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    2. finding it hard in my opinion to short volatility here at the bottom not making sense

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    3. UVXY has a long way to hit bottom. The reason to exit UVXY is to enter at a lower price with many more shares.

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    4. SC - We have record short VIX speculators again...shouldn't be going long SVXY up here...pennies in front a steamroller imo...VIX basing at the 12 level at bottom of the box like you said in previous post with large pos RSI div on multiple time frames...

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    5. Rob, it's a timing issue. Yes, I agree the VIX is low, but the timing is not ready for volatility. I plan to enter UVXY at Thanksgiving. There will be some volatility first half December with next round of Tarrifs due December 15th.

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  13. Tariff talk will fade now and the positive USMCA will become the focus for this month. The month looks positive.

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  14. When we look at the SVXY it has catching up to do compared to SPX. This is because SVXY hasn't seen a higher high since September 2018. We will see that higher high now.

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    1. Thanks SC. When do you see UVXY hitting 11 now?

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    2. UVXY $15 late this month, and $11 on New Year's Eve.

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    3. sc you are expecting uvxy to drop to 10 bucks in january and 16 in november correct

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  15. That would be a great set-up to short jan

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    1. Absolutely, I am looking forward to it. January will be quite spectacular...

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  16. VIX putting in death cross today on daily. It's whipsawing on the daily, but the bigger picture, the weekly, still looks good.

    Why is SVXY rising today? Because the market knows there is nothing else to talk about tariffs until December.

    SVXY leading to the upside today.

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    1. You could be wrong with this though you were wrong before

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    2. You never you say you don't believe in miracles it would be a miracle for this to go up medal Remember what you said the vix's at 12:12

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    3. I do not believe in miracles, then or now. Don't get me wrong I think it is irrational. And when this happens it is very profitable.

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  17. SVXY first lower to 57-57.5 then higher to 61.

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  18. I'm seeing this... bounce back to 21 VXX before lower https://imgur.com/a/xzD6ON5

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  19. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJyi9jcr58E&feature=em-uploademail

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  20. SVXY melt up! This morning's dip last all of 3 minutes...

    Trump speaks tomorrow at the Economic Club of New York, and going into an election year, he is going to knock the ball out of the park.

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    1. Look at RSI, are sure this is melt up and not a high?
      Huge risk for pennies. There is high probability the move from Dec.2018 is over.

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  21. What does it mean sc. Spx. 4000.

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    1. No, no. SPX is not appealing. SPX is near the high end of the range, upside is limited. Those looking for a blowoff top are going to be very disappointed when all it does is slowly grind up a little.

      This is about volatility. Volatility is low and is going to get extremely low.

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  22. There is plenty of upside for SVXY and it will perform well in this low volatility environment. To see SVXY overbought on the weekly we can expect much higher.

    SVXY is cheap because it's catching up to the run that SPX has already made over the last year. The structure of the VIX futures is set up perfectly for SVXY.

    Look at SVXY today. SPX was down, VIX was up and SVXY was up again today anyway.

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    1. when you say plenty upside what is the target?75 and what is your time frame nov dec january

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    2. sc also when you say vix is low how low is it going?10 11

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    3. mrvl i bought at 15 17 and 20 bucks its 28 right now i think it could go to 50 just my opinion this 5 g looks xplosive

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    4. Nice looking chart Louis!!

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    5. VIX is close to a low and still within the rectangle. There is good support in the 11's.

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    6. ok how ever your holding svxy till april there has to be some kinda pop in the short term

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    7. So no more 60 vix early next year?

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    8. December and January look quite choppy and will be good for trading. Yes, there will be pullbacks and I look forward to taking advantage.

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    9. Joe, later next year, it is on track - the Election. Best opportunity in volatility that I've ever seen.

      First steps first.

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    10. Sweet, thanks SC, hope all the waiting pays off.

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  23. https://www.screencast.com/t/lCxIi81BWhYI

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  24. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBjhaT27jXk&feature=em-uploademail

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  25. I have a plan for Bitcoin. Just waiting for the price to drift lower.

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  26. And here comes Trump up to bat...

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  27. So no pull back at all. Svxy to 80. Confused

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    1. Yes there will definitely be pullbacks in December and January.

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  28. Can u pl post new updated chart.

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  29. Next year is 4 year cycle low the markets are topping like SVXY, but 80 is a nice dream:)

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  30. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwXkiU-HtP0&feature=em-uploademail

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  31. After being down 6 weeks consecutively VIX will probably close slightly up this week.

    The market is holding solid because a positive event is ahead.

    We're coming up to the dominant event for the month which is the USMCA ratification around Thanksgiving.

    This is likely to be the next high for SPX with VIX down into the 11's.

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  32. SVXY looks like it'll close up again this week! Up 7 weeks consecutively!!

    Next week the strongest.

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