Similarly, SVXY has fallen from grace. SVXY has backtested fork support exactly. Longterm trendline resistance is located at approximately $19.
Weekly Chart
Thursday, February 15, 2018
SVXY - Initiating Coverage
As expected the parabolic rise in XIV identified early in 2017 collapsed with a bottomless decline. The fund will be delisted on February 20, 2018. The END.
Similarly, SVXY has fallen from grace. SVXY has backtested fork support exactly. Longterm trendline resistance is located at approximately $19.
Weekly Chart
Similarly, SVXY has fallen from grace. SVXY has backtested fork support exactly. Longterm trendline resistance is located at approximately $19.
Weekly Chart
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Money starting to flow into SVXY.
ReplyDelete"Cboe executives said Friday on an earnings conference call that the ProShares fund was benefiting from a surge of investor inflows, since other funds for the short-volatility strategy are shutting down. SVXY assets have risen to more than $650 million from $100 million in just a week, the executives said."
The best write up on what happened to XIV that I've come across: http://kiddynamitesworld.com/xiv-volpocalypse-sea-disinformation-ignorance/
Deleteare looking to buy svxy
ReplyDeleteYes, I plan to take a position. I'll keep the sizing moderate.
Deletebut you would take that position on a pullback in market correct and if so what price on svxy
DeleteYes, I'm waiting for possible entry. SVXY has warmed a little this week but might settle back. Let's wait and see.
DeleteVolatility has reverted to normal. This is a normal market. Historically VIX averages around 18.
DeleteCan svxy go out of business like XIV
ReplyDeleteCredit Suisse decided to exit the inverse volatility business with XIV whereas Proshares SVXY has continued.
DeleteThis structure can be adversely affected if VIX futures rise suddenly. If it happens in one day that is particularly damaging. However that is rare.
It's important to have realistic expectations, diversification, take precautions and have a trading plan to reduce risks.
I guess when the time is right I'll buy 10,000 svxy shares instead of 100,000 shares LOL you still think the markets going down at 2625
Deletethat CS could close out XIV was stated in the fund's prospectus. Moves of more than 80 percent on the VIX gave them the option of closing out the fund. You'd have to read the SVXY fund's prospectus to see whether they have that option.
DeleteIf we get a bug 2722 the 50-day moving average we're going to move a lot higher
ReplyDeletespx 50 day moving average broken
ReplyDeleteSPX should dip soon. SPX 2,750 is a tough resistance. SPX 2,650 support.
ReplyDeleteGoing forward I plan to trade S&P and volatility which is the hottest trade on the market.
ReplyDeleteIm with ya brother
DeleteEnough time to dip and still hit 2875 next week with 4 trading days?
ReplyDeleteYes I expect so.
DeleteWell let's see next week how long the dip takes first.
Deletethx SC, that would be quite a sight to see
ReplyDeleteI'm expecting some weakness in SPX next week then rally hard. Maybe the rally will be mostly the following week.
ReplyDeleteWhere do you see SVXY as a buy? Thx
ReplyDeleteSPX still looks like it can pullback next week. May see as low as 2,650.
Deletea break above 2751.29 would mean a move higher possibly 2762
ReplyDeletenext stop 2762 to 2800
ReplyDeletefirst intuition was right sc
ReplyDeleteThere we go. Starting to cool off.
ReplyDeleteSC, you still expecting UVXY $5 or is $9-10 more likely given VIX strength?
ReplyDeleteI'm expecting $14 UVXY to be tested this week. It may bounce off that but I will not participate.
DeleteYes, $5 UVXY.
SC, how high do you see UVXY pop after $5?
ReplyDeleteUVXY chart is coming and will show $5 then a target $12 to $15.
DeleteTony Dwyer @dwyerstrategy
ReplyDeleteOur call is for retest and minor break of recent low, before ramping into 2018 #SPX target of 3100. Since 1992, when #VIX weekly rate-of-change spikes to 125 (02/09) on weekly close, #SPX rallies ~5%, then retests low ~30 days after signal. We excl. crisis period.
OpEx High and now a potential turn...on Bradley's 20 Feb...Coincidence? Hmmmm....Be Careful!
ReplyDeleteyes be careful on SVXY...if 2400s SPX coming they will blow up SVXY like they did XIV...
DeleteThe nasdaq composite is having a golden cross on daily macd indicator this is positive momentum development
ReplyDeleteWe should see more upside
I wanted to place an order for SVXY. I would not go through. Called the broker and was informed that it is closing down...
ReplyDeleteits trading thou
Delete2740 coming quick
Deletelong 10000 spxl
Deletesc what is your target on upro and svxy
DeleteSome brokers have restricted clients from trading inverse volatility etfs. Fidelity I know for one example. It's unfortunate.
ReplyDeleteSPX is looking solid. Not much of a pullback. VIX was actually down yesterday. VIX looks like it may be heading down for another week to 13 or 14.
ReplyDeleteDo you see 2700 holding on SPX. Or it could test around 2650-80 before going higher. thz
ReplyDeleteI identified 2,750 SPX as a resistance and it was rejected there. However, it doesn't look like it'll cool off much.
DeleteBought SVXY at $12.17.
ReplyDeleteBought UPRO at $143.25.
ReplyDeleteSPX has entered the whipsaw stage. Up for a week next. I may look to short late next week.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you see the S&P going up to?
ReplyDeleteSPX test around 2,800. When VIX hits 15 I'm out of these positions.
ReplyDeleteNobody do that VooDoo like Dr Bradley do! Lower closes every day since 20 Feb's majikcal turn...Coincidence? Hmmmm.... Friday could be down right entertaining...Be Careful!
ReplyDeleteVIX down yet again!
ReplyDeleteyup spxl upro moving nicely svxy aswell
Deletewhat would be a target on upro
im thinking upro 150 spxl possible 47.5 48 your thoughts
DeleteSVXY heating up. SVXY target $15 in about a week.
ReplyDeleteI may exit SVXY today or Monday if it spikes up to $13.75. It may dip back to $12 then run to $15.
ReplyDeleteYes, UPRO $150 there is some resistance but I may just hold for $165. I doubt it'll pullback much from $150.
SPX is very strong. It could see as high as 2,900 on this move.
ReplyDeleteSold SVXY at $13.14.
ReplyDeleteSC, you don't think this goes to $13.75 next week? Woukd you buy in again around $12? Thx
DeleteDecided to book the profit. Still have UPRO. I would enter SVXY again.
DeleteLet's see next week.
Now THAT was an entertaining day! Driven by the power of today's Fed Speakers (Dudley, Rosengren, Mester, Williams), or just another ponder-worthy Coincidence? Hmmmm...time to Be Careful!
ReplyDeleteSC, in your opinion, what would be the HIGH and the LOW for SPX this year?
ReplyDeleteGood question. I see this as a consolidation year. Let me address this soon with charts to explain.
Deleteive used scott trade elite for years recently td ameritrade bought them out does anybdy know if this is a good platform
ReplyDeleteor any recomendations on platforms
Sold UPRO $151.70.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to wait and see how things shape up next.
ReplyDeleteout of spxl
ReplyDeletesold spxl at 48
ReplyDeleteIf volatility has returned to normal (15-20), then how will UVX reach $5?
ReplyDeleteWouldnt VIX need to plunge to 9-10's again for uvxy to drop so low?
Volatility has reverted to normal. Historically VIX averages 18 and we can expect that average this year.
DeleteHowever, it'll be an extremely volatile year. Big spikes and deep dips for VIX this year.
We can see 9 VIX but not for long periods of time. The years of record calm are over.
SC, looking to short next?
ReplyDeleteNot quite yet...
DeleteSVXY hit $13.75 resistance and dropped. Next interested in entering $11.80 SVXY for the run to $15.
ReplyDeleteSCFebruary 23, 2018 at 9:28 AM
"I may exit SVXY today or Monday if it spikes up to $13.75. It may dip back to $12 then run to $15."
Sc at what point would you be willing to buy upro your thoughts is it Target still 165
ReplyDeleteYes, target $165 UPRO. Looking to enter today or tomorrow on pullback.
DeleteBought SVXY $12.45.
ReplyDeleteBought UPRO $149.
ReplyDeleteYou are aware that SVXY objective has changed?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.proshares.com/news/proshare_capital_management_llc_plans_to_reduce_target_exposure_on_two_etfs.html
Thanks Frank. Yes the leverage is being reduced on both UVXY and SVXY. UVXY from 2x to 1.5x. SVXY from 1x to .5x.
DeleteThere has been an uproar due to the recent crash. Basically they are adjusting to a higher volatility environment.
someone made 2 much like 300 million big boys paid out alot
DeleteYes, true.
DeleteDoes UVXY reducing leverage to 1.5 mean they will do fewer reverse splits? Or does it mean any future upside will be limited? Not sure why uvxy would do this now that volatility is back and uvxy stands to profit from it.
ReplyDeleteBoth fewer splits and limited upside but in a more volatile market the moves will be comparable size.
DeleteVolatility too hot for many to handle. The market is only allowed to go up...
dss
DeleteSince TVIX is still 2x, would you use that instead of UVXY in the future?
DeleteI do not like the leverage change by Proshares, but I give them credit for standing by the funds.
DeleteCredit Suisse damaged TVIX years ago by halting creation units. This was very serious. Now XIV has been ruined.
So UVXY and SVXY have a good record. They track the index which they are designed to do. I will stick with these funds.
More Bradley VooDoo to ponder....Since the significant 29 Jan turn date, small caps RUT is...lower...Coincidence? Hmmmm....Even with the recent Fed-Speak induced rally (head-fake?), RUT is still lower as of today...Coincidence? Hmmmm.... Next significant Bradley date to watch is 21 March...two days before the 23 March Government Shutdown...Coincidence? Hmmmm....all the more reason to watch for more head-fake bounces (9 March high?) and...Be Careful!
ReplyDeleteThe chart for SPX was susceptible to a fake breakout and pullback from 2,800. That is what we are seeing.
ReplyDeleteHowever, the real breakout is coming soon. I'm expecting March to be extremely bullish. We may see 2,650 as I've been saying, but 2,900 is next resistance.
I entered bullish positions and will add soon.
Next surprise is to the upside!
SCFebruary 22, 2018 at 8:03 AM
"SPX test around 2,800. When VIX hits 15 I'm out of these positions."
SC - I thought the second leg of the crash was supposed to occur in March?
DeleteNot yet for the second leg. We're just beginning the whipsaw phase. Second leg due to start April for SVXY.
DeleteUsing RUT daily chart...since it's not manipulated nearly as much as SP500...either W3 down or a C-wave down is underway today. It may continue into Friday, or bounce on the morning's Jobs Report. Either way, a bounce of sorts is likely due into 9 March Bradley Date...which is also the anniversary of the market's bullish recovery...Coincidence? Hmmmm...Be Careful!
ReplyDeletelong 10000 spxl
ReplyDeletelong 5000 upro
DeleteLooks like the market could get slapped out even further possibly 2532
ReplyDeletePlanning to add to positions this morning. VIX doing nothing. A measure I have is the highest that I have ever seen it. Bullish.
ReplyDeleteSVXY is ready for the run to $15.
ReplyDeleteFebruary 27, 2018 at 10:40 AM
"SVXY hit $13.75 resistance and dropped. Next interested in entering $11.80 SVXY for the run to $15."
Bought UPRO $134.60.
ReplyDeleteBought SVXY $11.65.
ReplyDeleteThere's 2,650 SPX.
ReplyDeleteFebruary 16, 2018 at 8:30 AM
"SPX still looks like it can pullback next week. May see as low as 2,650."
Next stop 2,900 SPX on the way to the magical 3,000. This market likes round numbers. Congratulations bulls!!
ReplyDeletesc your target on upro is 165 thats in the month of march correct
DeleteYes, correct.
DeleteWhat's your timeframe for new ATHs, SC?
DeleteApproximately 2 weeks.
DeleteThis megaphone was thrown around this week. Also, dotted lines are 1.0 ext of upmove off 2532. Wow, that'd be a heck of a move. https://imgur.com/a/nxdAQ
Deleteyup they couldnt crack it i bought more this morning
ReplyDeleteFebruary was fun! Haha. What did you guys think?
ReplyDeleteSCJanuary 24, 2018 at 9:30 AM
"February is likely to be one of the worst months of the year."
I agree, February was really fun!...thank you Cycle!
ReplyDeleteNice!
DeleteSC, I’m reading a lot of talk about 2735 ish area, any concern in your charts?
ReplyDelete2736 is the 50 dma for SPX. It's been tested a few times already and expect it to be very weak resistance. SPX should break above that and then it becomes support.
DeleteSome more unsolicited Bradley VooDoo to ponder...sure, it's possibly wrong, it's more than a little crazy, but it's at least worthy of a thought provoking 'Hmmmm...' all the same...after all, the market is currently bouncing...as previously mentioned it would...Coincidence? Hmmmm....anyway, based on recent patterns, a likely path would lead to 9 March as the potential high (SP500 at 2800-ish), followed by a possible turn lower into the more significant Bradley date of 21 March. Or maybe not...so please, Be Careful!
ReplyDeleteInteresting as always, thank you!
DeleteCharts are pointing up! SVXY is so cheap a meteorite could strike the earth and the price would continue to rise.
ReplyDeleteI agree what are your targets on svxy your thoughts
Deleteit wouldnt suprise me to see the market up by march 15th
SVXY target $14.50.
DeleteLooks like things are still on target for a 9 March high...also, NYMO and CPCE are at levels indicative of a short-term top...Coincidence? Hmmmm.... based on a daily chart view, RUT appears to be working on W3 up...and if true, then maybe W3 tops by 9 March, followed by a W4 into 21 March, followed by a W5 into 27 March...yes, they're all Bradley Dates...depending on how one calculates and interprets them. Then again, maybe this is all simply useless crap and the market's on the verge of plummeting into and endless abyss...either way, please, Be Careful!
ReplyDeleteSPX is transitioning into a steady uptrend next. Calm seas and smooth sailing ahead.
ReplyDeleteSVXY relentless grind higher next. Slow and steady. It may be flat for a while here as it builds a base. Optimal target $15.40. I plan to exit around $15.
SPX chart coming with model.
ReplyDeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete