The SPX model shows a slow and steady grind up next. Dips should be relatively minor as the model predicts a relentless grind higher. The next several weeks look relatively flat as SPX builds a solid base.
60min Chart
SPX 2018 Model:
Thursday, March 8, 2018
SPX - Calm Seas and Smooth Sailing Ahead
SPX has likely completed the volatile first leg down, and calmer markets are ahead in March and April.
The SPX model shows a slow and steady grind up next. Dips should be relatively minor as the model predicts a relentless grind higher. The next several weeks look relatively flat as SPX builds a solid base.
60min Chart
SPX 2018 Model:
The SPX model shows a slow and steady grind up next. Dips should be relatively minor as the model predicts a relentless grind higher. The next several weeks look relatively flat as SPX builds a solid base.
60min Chart
SPX 2018 Model:
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More charts are coming soon. It was important to post this model first to explain. The market is highly correlated to this model.
ReplyDeleteIs the selling point of svxy higher than $15 now or is $15 the first selling point on the way up?
ReplyDelete$15 target may be at or near an important high.
DeleteSo, no 2900 this month, now in May?
ReplyDeleteProbably not. Originally it seemed a spike up may be possible, but it appears a slow grind up may be more likely.
DeleteThanks SC, so low volatility is probably the play
DeleteYes it's an ideal setup for low volatility coming off a volatile month and with "bad news" marking the bottom.
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24INDU&p=D&st=1928-10-01&en=1929-12-31&i=t73348150623&r=1520585896629
ReplyDeleteYes
Deletesc im not understtanding what yes means ?
DeleteYes, the price behaviour is correlated at this time.
DeleteVery nice!
ReplyDeleteSCMarch 2, 2018 at 6:11 AM
"Planning to add to positions this morning. VIX doing nothing. A measure I have is the highest that I have ever seen it. Bullish."
I may book some profits. I'm thinking of exiting a third of my positions. By this model the upside looks thin for the next 10 days or so anyway. I don't expect it to come down much though.
ReplyDeleteSold one third UPRO at $150.
ReplyDeleteWell played, SC!
ReplyDeleteWhat are the odds...a HIGH on Bradley's 9 March date...Coincidence? Hmmmm.... Given the VooDoo, we could potentially see a choppy to lower OpEx into the next major turn date of 21 March. The Government shutdown is still in play until the 23 March vote, so Be Careful!
Thanks! You too. Those dates are hitting beautifully!!
DeleteSold one third SVXY at $12.85.
ReplyDeleteToday's SP500 target may be 2780 by day's end...which is close-enough-for-Government-work close to the originally guessed 2800-ish. VIX is dropping...but nothing is ever guaranteed, so...Be Careful!
ReplyDeletesc when u say upro might be sodt we are talking how many points 3 to 4 points? i sold my spxl im still long upro
ReplyDeleteDips likely to be minor during the run-up.
DeleteNice and steady. Smooth sailing haha!
ReplyDeleteSC your Feb 1 chart shows the second leg down happens in April, but the latest chart shows an uptrend in April.
DeleteWould you please clarify which is which.
I think the pattern for the top is ending diagonal and your post from 8-th February nails it. I do not think it is smooth sailing and grinding higher for months.
ReplyDeleteBradley VooDoo to ponder...9 March was clearly a HIGH as predicted well in advance by...uh, Dr Bradley. The next FOMC meeting is 20-21 March...and the next significant Bradley Date is 21 March...Coincidence? Hmmmm....the setup indicates a potential low, so Be Careful!
ReplyDeleteYes, there is the question of timing. Typically the rallies take longer than one would expect. Will the rally be a quick spike or slow grind up? We will have confirmation soon enough. So let's see as things progress.
ReplyDeleteit would not suprise me to see market spike up here
ReplyDeleteTwo lower closes since 9 March Bradley Date turn...Coincidence? Hmmmm...looking like W4 down is underway, so...Be Careful!
ReplyDeleteNice caĺl
DeleteBought spxl at 46. 92
ReplyDeleteSPX has filled it's gap today and basically trading at its 50 dma.
ReplyDeletebig spike coming
ReplyDeleteAlways in motion the future is...all models are wrong, some are useful...and the following is just a guess. Using RUT daily chart (since it's a little less manipulated than SP500) it appears that W4 down is underway in the form of an ABC...today's OpEx induced bounce is B, that should be followed by C into a 20/21 March low. If Bradley's VooDoo continues, 20/21 March will mark the W4 low, which will be followed by W5 to higher highs into month's end. As previously mentioned, 20/21 March is also the FOMC meeting, and 23 March is the next Govt Shutdown vote...Coincidence? Hmmmm...play at your own risk, and Be Careful!
ReplyDeleteit would not suprise me to see a rally into friday
ReplyDeletebought spxl 44.96
ReplyDeleteSC, does the 'smooth sailing' prediction come with a life jacket? ;-)
ReplyDeleteJust a guess, but the low may likely occur tomorrow at the latest, with a nice bounce perhaps fully underway by 21 March...Coincidence? Hmmmm...today will likely end on the day's low, so Be Careful!
Haha. Glad I took profits on a third position.
DeleteYou should have sold it all LOL what are you talk it's now 4 the S&P 500 still 2900 or now that's reverted to a less position like 2850
DeleteI still think we'll test close to 3,000. However, for now we are seeing whipsaws. 2825 to 2850 SPX is a resistance to watch.
Deletewhat is your time line on 2825 your thoughts and thanx
DeleteWonder if this is the second leg down now in the previous model?
ReplyDeletePrice cooling off here and that is fine. I expect we are still in a trading range. These are whipsaws.
ReplyDeleteFrankly I welcome volatility. It's profitable.
ReplyDeleteThis looks like the second leg down in the previous model. I wonder why no one is paying attention to it. Volatility will stay till June this year thanks to Mr. Trump. Watch out near the end of March and April.
ReplyDeleteYes - I see it too. Could be a doozy if the previous model is correct. 2100-2400 into end of June.
Deletetrust me where paying attention
Deletei believe s and p will spike up 40 points this week
ReplyDeleteSold SVXY at $12.35.
ReplyDeleteSold UPRO at $142.45.
ReplyDeleteDecided to protect profits.
ReplyDeleteSC if we are about to enter the second leg down in the previous model - where would that take SPX to - 2100?
DeleteI think it may be possible for SVXY to test around $11. The weekly is starting to curl up though. If we are down this week we will see 3 weeks up next.
DeleteI know you're around to protect your profits you think there's a big drop down coming in the market what are your thoughts
DeleteIt doesn't make sense to me to sell something at 12 because you're going to go to 11 is it going to 11 I'll buy 50000 shares of it 11
DeleteAt this time all I am doing is trading the whipsaws up and down. SVXY is a trading range $11 to $13 for now. I don't see a big drop coming until most likely May into June.
DeleteRob, it's early. I'm reviewing and let's see how things shape up next.
DeleteOk for now SC - you're looking for 2850 SPX?
DeleteThere is some resistance 2,850 SPX. More at 2,900.
DeleteOne step at a time. Sometimes cash is king.
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion i think we pop up here
ReplyDeletesc do you plan on getting back in ?
ReplyDeleteRUT is rising, VIX is dropping, Spring is arriving, snow is falling on the White House...and yup, it's 21 March...Dr Bradley's day...Coincidence? Hmmmm....market could possibly rally into 26-27 March, maybe completing W5 up...but since these silly coincidences are all based on VooDoo Majik, Be Careful!
ReplyDeletei agree
DeleteIt does look like the market is starting to thaw. I've been approaching cautiously but there are encouraging signs. Today SVXY is showing relative straight compared to SPX. It may be leading up.
ReplyDeleteIt looks to me like we're going higher
ReplyDeleteThe trading range is well established now. I'll be looking for an entry SVXY $11 for the next run to $13. I expect it'll trade in this range until May.
ReplyDelete100 percent
Deletebig rally coming
ReplyDeleteDown this week and up for 3 weeks next.
ReplyDeleteSCMarch 20, 2018 at 10:46 AM
"I think it may be possible for SVXY to test around $11. The weekly is starting to curl up though. If we are down this week we will see 3 weeks up next."
I'll be looking to enter long tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteBought UVXY 17.05.
ReplyDeleteJust for fun lol. Might see $20.
DeleteI'll be interested in UVXY in April, especially May.
DeleteHuston, we may have a problem...not exactly 'Smooth Sailing' and not exactly the anticipated Dr Bradley rally...Coincidence? Hmmmm...RUT is still holding up relatively well, but Congress is still negotiating...and since all models are wrong and only some are useful, please Be Careful!
ReplyDeletebig rally coming after this decline mark my words
ReplyDeleteWe hit a rogue wave haha. Nothing calm about this week, but smooth sailing starting next week.
ReplyDeleteSC have to say this is kind of starting to look like the second leg down in the previous model...which we did think would start in March...
Delete2460 is where the big boys are taking this.....
DeleteIt is coming. Second leg down May into June. Whipsaws first.
ReplyDeleteUnless this reverses soon, appears to be second leg down right now. Could take another two months to bottom.
DeleteNew Chart posted!
ReplyDelete