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Thursday, February 8, 2018

$SPX - Rollercoaster Ride to Continue - Massive Rally Approaching

SPX plunged off major resistance this week.  However, the channel is intact, and still mildly bullish.  A new slightly higher high is likely to materialize according to the model.  

The model shows that the topping process will be characterized by whipsaws and chop.   

Daily Chart















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84 comments:

  1. SCFebruary 8, 2018 at 6:08 AM

    The low is in but SPX should decline a little to 2,625 to 2,650.

    Get ready for a big bounce!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. RobFebruary 8, 2018 at 6:41 AM

      SC - any chance we could get a lower low to 2550 before we begin the ascent to 2900?

      Delete
    2. SCFebruary 8, 2018 at 6:47 AM

      Not expecting a lower low.

      Delete
  2. SCFebruary 8, 2018 at 6:21 AM

    SPX reverted to the mean, UVXY also reverted to the mean.

    XIV was just mean.

    ReplyDelete
  3. SCFebruary 8, 2018 at 6:32 AM

    VIX elephant trader took some profits.

    "A mystery trader just made millions off the US stock market meltdown.

    The so-called “VIX Elephant” has a wager on a large increase in the CBOE Volatility Index, which serves as the stock market’s “fear gauge”.

    The index soared overnight to a reading of 37, more than doubling.

    The bet is expected to pay out as much as $US262.5 million — if everything goes according to plan."

    ReplyDelete
  4. SCFebruary 8, 2018 at 6:50 AM

    Getting ready to take long position in SPX. Plan to use UPRO around $132. Target $165 next week.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. louis lombardiFebruary 8, 2018 at 6:58 AM

      i have anything cheaper then that or what about shorting volatility

      Delete
    2. louis lombardiFebruary 8, 2018 at 7:02 AM

      what about shorting spxu when upro hits 132

      Delete
    3. RobFebruary 8, 2018 at 7:35 AM

      SC is the SPX target for next week around 2800?

      Delete
    4. SCFebruary 8, 2018 at 7:46 AM

      SPX could see as high as 2,900 next week.

      Delete
    5. sun_shineFebruary 9, 2018 at 5:45 AM

      With the drop yesterday, do you still think 2900 is possible just in 5 trading days? What could be the catalyst? Thx

      Delete
  5. SCFebruary 8, 2018 at 6:54 AM

    UVXY resistance around $23. Big plunge next week to around $9.

    ReplyDelete
  6. SCFebruary 8, 2018 at 7:57 AM

    There's 2,650 SPX!

    SCFebruary 8, 2018 at 6:08 AM

    "The low is in but SPX should decline a little to 2,625 to 2,650"

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. RobFebruary 8, 2018 at 8:22 AM

      Wondering if we hit 2550 first today/tmr then rally hard next week?

      Delete
  7. SCFebruary 8, 2018 at 8:39 AM

    Always leave the last cookie in the cookie jar.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Shadowplay07February 8, 2018 at 8:48 AM

    Shorting VXX or UVXY here with VIX at -20% backwardation is asking to get your head cut off imo. They might plunge like Tuesday afternoon but then coming roaring back.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. louis lombardiFebruary 8, 2018 at 8:54 AM

      i buy big blocks but they dont let me short more then 2000 sharesi will be a buyer of upro or s and p
      still waiting thou

      Delete
    2. SCFebruary 8, 2018 at 9:13 AM

      Long UPRO $133.50.

      Delete
  9. SCFebruary 8, 2018 at 9:15 AM

    SPX may still come down a little but I notice VIX is quite calm today. So I see enough reason to take position.

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  10. SCFebruary 8, 2018 at 9:52 AM

    2,625 SPX has been reached!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCFebruary 8, 2018 at 9:52 AM

      Beautiful!

      Delete
    2. louis lombardiFebruary 8, 2018 at 10:34 AM

      SC wouldn't it make sense to Short uvxy down to $9 verse buying something at 133 to go to 160 your thoughts is backwardation a problem you feel uvxy could pop up I don't understand thanks for all your help appreciate

      Delete
    3. SCFebruary 8, 2018 at 10:52 AM

      Shorting directly is a more complex trade. I am expecting UVXY to fall next.

      Delete
    4. SCFebruary 8, 2018 at 11:19 AM

      There are so many different ways to do things. Etfs, futures, options, shorting. They all have advantages and disadvantages.

      Delete
  11. SCFebruary 8, 2018 at 12:29 PM

    SPX holding very well, looking excellent. Would not be surprising to see a big green candle tomorrow...

    ReplyDelete
  12. SCFebruary 8, 2018 at 12:47 PM

    VIX has plummeted 15 from Tuesday. Watch out bears!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. RobFebruary 8, 2018 at 12:52 PM

      Might see 2500-250 tmr before the big rally. Either way it will rally soon...

      Delete
  13. Dennis TFebruary 8, 2018 at 1:02 PM

    Gap closed 2580. Wondering why it didn't close yesterday. Next gap at 2470?

    ReplyDelete
  14. Dennis TFebruary 8, 2018 at 6:35 PM

    I am concerned about the malaise of this correction. Ohh, it's just a correction, everything will be ok. The break from the upper channel was broken around 2470. The 200 day is at 2538. Geez, if a correction can not even test the 200 day? 2470 is very possible in my opinion.

    ReplyDelete
  15. louis lombardiFebruary 9, 2018 at 4:18 AM

    2507 is the ultimate low 6090 on nasdaq that couild happen
    and wouldnt suprise me

    ReplyDelete
  16. SCFebruary 9, 2018 at 6:09 AM

    Stopping out of UPRO. SPX closed under the mid channel support yesterday. Daily SPX chart not even oversold yet.

    ReplyDelete
  17. sun_shineFebruary 9, 2018 at 6:25 AM

    Hmmm... Gartman just added to his shorts. Perhaps a bottom is near lol!

    ReplyDelete
  18. SCFebruary 9, 2018 at 6:31 AM

    Sold UPRO at $128.04.

    ReplyDelete
  19. SCFebruary 9, 2018 at 6:37 AM

    Let's see what happens. Either it recovers above the mid channel or it doesn't.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. louis lombardiFebruary 9, 2018 at 6:42 AM

      i believe the low will be hit next week maybe monday or tuesday we will see

      Delete
  20. SCFebruary 9, 2018 at 6:45 AM

    If SPX falls again today it'll drop 100 more next week.

    ReplyDelete
  21. louis lombardiFebruary 9, 2018 at 7:42 AM

    There is a gap from September 8th 2017 the September 11th 2017 if we break the 200-day moving average of 2538 we will hit that which is 2468 to 2470

    ReplyDelete
  22. RobFebruary 9, 2018 at 9:47 AM

    We may still rally hard next week SC...sentiment will be uber bearish now...

    ReplyDelete
  23. louis lombardiFebruary 9, 2018 at 9:51 AM

    lets see if 2538 holdsup

    ReplyDelete
  24. SCFebruary 9, 2018 at 10:05 AM

    Just made day trade lol. Bought UVXY at $26.65 and sold at $27.50.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCFebruary 9, 2018 at 10:06 AM

      Actually made more in 2 minutes than the UPRO loss haha.

      Delete
    2. louis lombardiFebruary 9, 2018 at 10:15 AM

      That little U pro lost doesn't even bother me we made so much money anyways I'm waiting for the next big entry

      Delete
    3. louis lombardiFebruary 9, 2018 at 10:15 AM

      They're probably closed this market right on the 200-day moving average and on Monday rip it to the upside LOL

      Delete
    4. SCFebruary 9, 2018 at 10:29 AM

      It was a great week. This market is really fun...

      Delete
  25. sun_shineFebruary 9, 2018 at 10:06 AM

    SPX bounced from around 2540, could retest today.

    ReplyDelete
  26. SCFebruary 9, 2018 at 10:21 AM

    SPX likely heading towards the lower channel support. I'll look at a long SPX probably later next week.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. StockboomFebruary 9, 2018 at 10:38 AM

      What later next week? At this rate we will be below 2400..haha..is that what you are looking now?

      Delete
  27. SCFebruary 9, 2018 at 10:24 AM

    It would not surprise me to see SPX down 3 more days in a row next.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. RobFebruary 9, 2018 at 1:57 PM

      nice reversal into the close...perhaps we will see 2800-2850 next week...

      Delete
  28. SCFebruary 9, 2018 at 10:58 AM

    I'll remain in cash for now.

    ReplyDelete
  29. SCFebruary 9, 2018 at 11:01 AM

    Dangerous market. The knife is double sided for the bulls and bears.

    We are in the middle of the range.

    As shiny as the apple is on top of the tree I'll wait for the low hanging fruit.

    ReplyDelete
  30. sun_shineFebruary 9, 2018 at 11:21 AM

    Looks like quite a reversal today, let's see if it holds next week or even by close today.

    ReplyDelete
  31. dc-BEARFebruary 9, 2018 at 12:46 PM

    Government extended until 23 March...key Bradley Date 21 March. Coincidence? Hmmmm...
    Still pondering if 20 Feb will be a high or a low...but it's OpEx week, so Be Careful!

    ReplyDelete
  32. louis lombardiFebruary 9, 2018 at 12:51 PM

    Wow miss that rally

    ReplyDelete
  33. SCFebruary 12, 2018 at 6:15 AM

    Market recovered on Friday. Here comes the bull stampede! Back up to test the high SPX 2,875.

    I expect SPX to rally and flatten off this week. Calm week then SPX spike next week.

    I'm avoiding UVXY entirely. Don't touch. Chart update is coming.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. louis lombardiFebruary 12, 2018 at 9:06 AM

      i tried shorting uvxy tvix and vxx they wont let me

      Delete
  34. SCFebruary 12, 2018 at 6:31 AM

    Bought UPRO at $132.70.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCFebruary 12, 2018 at 6:34 AM

      UPRO target $160 next week.

      Delete
    2. RobFebruary 12, 2018 at 7:24 AM

      Seems like we will make a lower high on SPX towards 2775-2800 and then plunge to final lows around 2400s

      Delete
    3. louis lombardiFebruary 12, 2018 at 7:30 AM

      thats a possibility thats why you cant go all in i trade spxl if upro hits 160 spxl will go up 15 bucks

      Delete
  35. sun_shineFebruary 12, 2018 at 6:49 AM

    SC where do you VIX this week? and how low can UVXY go? thx

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    Replies
    1. SCFebruary 12, 2018 at 6:59 AM

      VIX 20 this week then 12 to 15. UVXY $5 orange support.

      Delete
  36. SCFebruary 12, 2018 at 7:07 AM

    UVXY up 4 weeks. UVXY down 3 weeks next.

    UVXY is at $22 and about to get cut by the double sided knife. $5 support..

    ReplyDelete
  37. JohnFebruary 13, 2018 at 2:22 AM

    Anything changed for you on silver lately?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCFebruary 13, 2018 at 6:46 AM

      Silver peaked in 2016 and should continue lower for a few years. Still quite bearish.

      Delete
  38. SCFebruary 13, 2018 at 6:48 AM

    SPX doing exactly what it should. It has stabilized with a nice tight range. It'll be very quiet this week which is normal after a volatile week. Spike up next week very strongly.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Dennis TFebruary 13, 2018 at 6:02 PM

    Some say we will retest 200 day. I would like to see a big red candle closing at that level. Not sure if that will happen. On the upside, Larry Berman says 2725 break is an up market.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. louis lombardiFebruary 14, 2018 at 7:29 AM

      whos larry berman

      Delete
    2. SCFebruary 14, 2018 at 8:16 AM

      SPX likely making a high. Dip looks possible to 2,625 next 3 or 4 days. Big spike to 2,875 next week.

      Delete
    3. RobFebruary 14, 2018 at 8:38 AM

      SC is the final top in the model or do you see other new highs in the future above 3000?

      Delete
    4. SCFebruary 14, 2018 at 8:42 AM

      The big picture is that this is the top forming. No higher highs this year.

      In future years we can see higher tops.

      Delete
    5. RobFebruary 14, 2018 at 8:48 AM

      Ok..2873 SPX was the top before the crash...are we expecting a double top to form next week?

      Delete
    6. SCFebruary 14, 2018 at 8:58 AM

      Yes. Top retested.

      Delete
  40. SCFebruary 14, 2018 at 8:19 AM

    Sold all UPRO $137.30.

    ReplyDelete
  41. SCFebruary 14, 2018 at 8:22 AM

    There was a choice. I could have rode out the dip but decide to book the profit.

    Will look for another long entry SPX soon.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCFebruary 14, 2018 at 8:42 AM

      I will not short. In cash here.

      Delete
    2. sun_shineFebruary 14, 2018 at 9:40 AM

      SC, is there a change SPX tests 2700 resistance before reversing. Long weekend coming up which usually has an upward bias. Thx

      Delete
  42. louis lombardiFebruary 15, 2018 at 3:43 AM

    Bull stampede mode

    ReplyDelete
  43. SCFebruary 15, 2018 at 8:01 AM

    A little stronger than I thought but she's trying to dip...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. RobFebruary 15, 2018 at 8:03 AM

      We may see SPX 2450 next week if the correction isn't over...

      Delete
  44. SCFebruary 15, 2018 at 9:56 AM

    New chart posted!

    ReplyDelete

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