At this stage, the price action appears to be consistent with consolidation. It is a grinding style of rally that is time consuming, but gains relatively little in terms of price.
Cycles are weak in November up until the 20th, and then December looks mildly positive. A November pullback looks probable, but the market is not quite ready yet for the next large decline. The VIX Cycle does show a major spike ahead, and so it will be very interesting once this rally matures.
2-hour Chart
You see it is simply a matter of time. As XIV grinds along it creates room for some mild upside because it wears down the overhead resistance.
ReplyDeleteThe pink fork is rising, but obviously the larger fork is declining. It's going to take some time and grind along, but it'll fall off another cliff.
I'll pick and choose some spots for UVXY, but the bears have to continue to be nimble for a while longer. When it's mature, UVXY will make another spectacular move.
ReplyDeleteso sc are you sayin uvxy is a buy thanx for your help
DeleteI'll probably take a position for a pop this month, but not for anything large quite yet.
DeleteI'll post when I take the trade.
sc, can u comment on gld/slv, gold stocks
ReplyDeleteSilver should decline a little more closer to $14, then bounce to $17's.
DeleteHi SC, are you still waiting for UVXY to goto $25.50 or just wait and see scenario for now. Thank-you
ReplyDeleteJust waiting for now. Nov 6th was the date for a turn, and decline to Nov 20, but that is for SPX. It's best to look at UVXY independently.
DeleteWhere do you think XIV will top out and timing estimate? Thanks
ReplyDeleteI'll post the analysis showing the target and timing soon.
DeleteSC, are you looking to take a position in Silver, that would be a nice pop to $17?
ReplyDeleteYes it should be a nice pop. Waiting for it to form a low currently.
DeleteThe market is susceptible to decline during the period from Nov 6th to Nov 20th in my view. I will focus of short trades during this period. Then around Nov 20 focus on long trades.
ReplyDeleteimportant upcoming dates:
DeleteWednesday, November 18 & Wednesday, November 25
UVXY really struggling.... Suggests strong bounce coming for SPX next two days.
ReplyDelete$25.50 was my level of support for UVXY and it did manage a decent bounce off that level from $25.70.
ReplyDeleteNext can see $23's this week.
What does that translate into for XIV?
Delete$33's to $34.
DeleteThere's the 4 day dip!
ReplyDeleteSCOctober 28, 2015 at 5:30 PM
"SPX has made 3 two-day dips on this October run, but it's due for a 4-5 day dip."
SC, silver almost back to previous low, do you see a higher low or lower low next?
ReplyDeleteRetest of $14, basically a double bottom with the Aug low around $14.
ReplyDeleteAlthough I am expecting a quick bounce for the market here, I still expect weakness into Nov 20th, next Friday.
ReplyDeleteHow low do you think SPX can go by next Friday?
DeleteI still expect 2030 to 2050 SPX next week.
DeleteSCNovember 3, 2015 at 8:08 AM
"By Nov 20th can see SPX 2030 to 2050. UVXY can pop 50%."
I'm very pleased with the reaction to my Nov 6th turn date! This could be a great month with some very nice action.
ReplyDeleteUVXY chart coming with short term levels to watch.
ReplyDeleteNew charts posted with short term targets.
ReplyDelete