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Tuesday, November 10, 2015

UVXY - Short Term Levels to Watch

The Cycle timing high for SPX anticipated November 6th has been confirmed. 

Notice though that while SPX came down significantly below the November 5th low, comparatively yesterday UVXY only saw a slight higher high than November 5th. 

It appears to be a double top for UVXY.  It is these subtle divergences that are important.  As well, UVXY is testing some fork resistance overhead.  Mostly likely UVXY cools off next. 

However, the SPX Cycle shows weakness into November 20th.  Therefore, UVXY should see higher levels tested next week.

30min Chart


 
30min Chart

 
 

Posted by at

64 comments:

  1. SCNovember 10, 2015 at 5:56 AM

    I mentioned yesterday that UVXY wasn't performing well, and this analysis shows that comparison.

    It suggests a short term SPX bounce that could be rather sharp. Having said that expect a lower market into November 20th.

    ReplyDelete
  2. SCNovember 10, 2015 at 6:30 AM

    Bought XIV $30.15.

    ReplyDelete
  3. sun_shineNovember 10, 2015 at 7:42 AM

    Good trade SC, assuming exit around $33+?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCNovember 10, 2015 at 8:17 AM

      XIV can see an overshoot of the turquoise midfork on the graph from yesterday. Should see $33's although I will be conservative and look to exit a little early. I'll be looking to enter UVXY this week.

      Delete
    2. SKY8November 10, 2015 at 10:04 AM

      Great entry SC! When do you see $33 be reached and how long do you see this bounce last?

      Delete
    3. SCNovember 10, 2015 at 10:56 AM

      I'm only expecting a quick bounce here. We'll see about the price. I plan to exit early since I still see some weakness ahead.

      Delete
  4. SCNovember 11, 2015 at 8:28 AM

    SPX dipped and tested the lower fork support this morning, and seems to be holding. Now let's see if it can run towards the midfork resistance around 2100.

    ReplyDelete
  5. MikeNovember 11, 2015 at 9:56 AM

    SC, are you still seeing this as a two days bounce?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCNovember 11, 2015 at 10:00 AM

      The rally is getting off to a slow start. At this pace I would estimate it can finish Monday.

      Delete
  6. SCNovember 11, 2015 at 10:37 AM

    Sold XIV at $31.00.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MikeNovember 11, 2015 at 10:42 AM

      Are you looking to buy back at lower price or time to short now? Thanks!

      Delete
  7. SCNovember 11, 2015 at 10:50 AM

    Decided to play it safe. Remember the market should see lower into Nov 20th so no point being aggressive on the long side.

    ReplyDelete
  8. SCNovember 11, 2015 at 10:55 AM

    I'm going to focus on shorting now until Nov 20th, and then will look at XIV at that time.

    ReplyDelete
  9. SCNovember 11, 2015 at 11:15 AM

    I probably could have hung on to XIV until tomorrow, might see closer to $32 tomorrow. UVXY can see $25's but probably not much lower. I'll be looking to enter UVXY soon, possibly tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  10. rotrotNovember 11, 2015 at 2:57 PM

    BPCOMPQ 30 minute chart...things are about to get going to the downside in a meaningful way
    (https://twitter.com/allerotrot/status/664553985160908801?s=17)

    ReplyDelete
  11. SCNovember 12, 2015 at 6:16 AM

    Definitely time to get more aggressive shorting.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. sun_shineNovember 12, 2015 at 6:25 AM

      SC, what's you S&P target on the low side. Also, the XIV entry target once the low is hit. thanks

      Delete
    2. SCNovember 12, 2015 at 6:44 AM

      XIV target entry is around $28.

      Delete
    3. SCNovember 12, 2015 at 6:47 AM

      I'm not overly bearish, 2040 or so SPX.

      Delete
  12. louis lombardiNovember 12, 2015 at 6:19 AM

    i mean good exit sorry

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCNovember 12, 2015 at 6:26 AM

      As soon as it showed signs of weakness I exited. That bounce was very weak.

      Delete
  13. louis lombardiNovember 12, 2015 at 6:23 AM

    break of 2064 will bring 2020

    ReplyDelete
  14. SCNovember 12, 2015 at 6:33 AM

    Bought UVXY $29.30.

    ReplyDelete
  15. louis lombardiNovember 12, 2015 at 6:57 AM

    what about tvix

    ReplyDelete
  16. louis lombardiNovember 12, 2015 at 8:38 AM

    im just wondering if we doubled bottom here on spx

    ReplyDelete
  17. MikeNovember 12, 2015 at 8:39 AM

    Exit target on UVXY?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCNovember 12, 2015 at 9:02 AM

      $32ish remains a target. Will focus on shorting until Nov 20th.

      Delete
    2. louis lombardiNovember 12, 2015 at 11:11 AM

      bro your right on the money with uvxy

      Delete
    3. louis lombardiNovember 12, 2015 at 12:13 PM

      Just wondering if you are holding for a higher number

      Delete
    4. rotrotNovember 12, 2015 at 1:09 PM

      expect to hit at least $68 during November...of course, UVXY is a trading entity...it may be a very long time before you see the $25's (could be years)...

      Delete
  18. louis lombardiNovember 12, 2015 at 11:57 AM

    Are you selling UVXY or you're keeping it

    ReplyDelete
  19. RogerNovember 12, 2015 at 5:18 PM

    UVXY target 32 reached. Spx bounce from here? Every bounce should be sold? Thanks SC.

    ReplyDelete
  20. SKY8November 12, 2015 at 6:39 PM

    SC, are you still holding UVXY? New target?

    ReplyDelete
  21. SJNovember 12, 2015 at 6:40 PM

    Hi, SC

    My projections

    My best projection:

    go down until Monday(Nov. 16) morning..

    Then bounce up for 3- 4 days ... So. Nov 20th intervene High..

    Then Final low day is around Dec 9

    Think about my projections..

    ReplyDelete
  22. SJNovember 12, 2015 at 6:56 PM

    test

    ReplyDelete
  23. SCNovember 13, 2015 at 6:18 AM

    Looking to take profit soon after the open. UVXY likely to dip today. Then a little higher next week.

    ReplyDelete
  24. MikeNovember 13, 2015 at 6:51 AM

    SC, your SPX target reached, where do you see SPX now by Nov 20?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCNovember 13, 2015 at 7:05 AM

      It'll bounce soon but could see around 2010 SPX next week.

      Delete
  25. SCNovember 13, 2015 at 7:01 AM

    Sold UVXY at $34.

    ReplyDelete
  26. SCNovember 13, 2015 at 7:03 AM

    XIV has a strong support around $27.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCNovember 13, 2015 at 7:08 AM

      $26.50 to $27.

      Delete
    2. louis lombardiNovember 13, 2015 at 7:16 AM

      let me know brother you right on money

      Delete
    3. MikeNovember 13, 2015 at 7:20 AM

      Are you looking to enter XIV at that target or just wait to buy back UVXY?

      Delete
    4. SCNovember 13, 2015 at 7:27 AM

      I'm eyeing XIV low $26 for a $2 pop.

      Delete
  27. louis lombardiNovember 13, 2015 at 7:43 AM

    market oversold looks like it will bounce should i buy 150 thousand shares of xiv

    ReplyDelete
  28. SCNovember 13, 2015 at 7:55 AM

    XIV reached the support at $26.50 and bouncing a little here. I'm going to wait and see if it undershoots a little. It is starting to look interesting though. I think we'll see a bounce to $28 or so.

    ReplyDelete
  29. SKY8November 13, 2015 at 9:20 AM

    Great call SC!!! What price would you buy back UVXY?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCNovember 13, 2015 at 9:40 AM

      I'd be interested in $31's early next week for a pop towards $37.

      Delete
  30. sun_shineNovember 13, 2015 at 9:30 AM

    SC, good call on S&P. Where do you think it goes from here next week, 2000 or lower and then bounce into Thanksgiving?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCNovember 13, 2015 at 9:41 AM

      I am expecting SPX to bounce for 3 days and then down to form a low around Nov 20th.

      Delete
    2. MikeNovember 13, 2015 at 9:53 AM

      What SPX level do you see for the bounce?

      Delete
    3. SCNovember 13, 2015 at 10:17 AM

      SPX 2060 or so.

      Delete
  31. SCNovember 13, 2015 at 10:19 AM

    Currently waiting, eyeing an entry into XIV today or Monday.

    ReplyDelete
  32. SCNovember 13, 2015 at 12:14 PM

    Bought XIV $26.15.

    ReplyDelete
  33. SCNovember 13, 2015 at 12:28 PM

    I'll post an XIV chart this weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  34. FrankNovember 13, 2015 at 2:46 PM

    terrible news, futures dropping fast after news of attacks and explosions in Paris

    ReplyDelete
  35. SCNovember 13, 2015 at 9:47 PM

    New chart posted.

    ReplyDelete

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