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Friday, November 13, 2015

XIV - Levels to Watch

XIV has been following the dominant pink fork since August.  Price reached the double fork resistance in early November and plunged.

XIV is nearing the lower pink fork support.  Price closed above the orange fork support on Friday, and price behavior at the orange support will be interesting.  

The SPX Cycle is still negative, but points to a low next week.  Most of the downside has likely already occurred.  An explosive move up is anticipated to commence from a low next week to the next high due around December 8th.

60min Chart

 



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86 comments:

  1. SCNovember 13, 2015 at 9:54 PM

    What happens Monday morning really depends on whether the orange fork holds or not. XIV closed at the orange support, though it is possible the unusual attack in Paris could it push it under and dip towards the pink support.

    Either way the low is due next week and a strong move up to around December 8th.

    ReplyDelete
  2. louis lombardiNovember 14, 2015 at 4:25 AM

    Hope ur right brother have faith in you

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  3. SCNovember 14, 2015 at 9:34 AM

    Silver is near my anticipated second blue arrow low, and bounce to $17 targeted next.

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  4. SCNovember 14, 2015 at 9:34 AM

    SPX is following a familiar pattern, and I will post that Cycle soon. Low anticipated this week, and next high December 8th around 2100 SPX or better.

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  5. SCNovember 14, 2015 at 9:45 AM

    I bought XIV targeting a 2-3 day bounce to $28, and would exit in that event and plan to reload again later in the week. If it does drift lower Monday, that's ok too, because the analysis shows a low this week and move up to $32's timed for around December 8th anyway.

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  6. rose2797November 14, 2015 at 1:19 PM

    Sc, what vehicle will you use to buy silver, Slv, agq or something else. what about bottom in gold

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    Replies
    1. SCNovember 14, 2015 at 1:43 PM

      Gold should also be close to a low in the $10.50 to $10.70 range.

      I like AGQ, though usually my Silver charts are based on SLV.

      Delete
  7. SCNovember 14, 2015 at 2:02 PM

    Thanks Joe! Looks interesting. One thing is certain, VIX doesn't spike to 50 and then just flatline in the teens. We'll see spikes in volatility going forward.

    ReplyDelete
  8. joedNovember 15, 2015 at 8:55 AM

    Yep..........but it still all comes down to one trade at a time. For traders like ourselves it comes down to making money, being right is a by product and targets are worthless without time. Best!

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  9. louis lombardiNovember 15, 2015 at 3:09 PM

    At what price would you buy agQ and for how many points

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  10. SCNovember 16, 2015 at 7:00 AM

    I'm going to wait a little for Silver to form a low first. Will update that chart this week.

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  11. SCNovember 16, 2015 at 7:54 AM

    Sold XIV at $26.90.

    ReplyDelete
  12. SCNovember 16, 2015 at 7:59 AM

    The orange support held this morning, but the market will likely rattle around this week I suspect.

    The Cycle still points lower until Nov 20th. I decided to take the profit and will look to reenter XIV closer to Nov 20th.

    ReplyDelete
  13. louis lombardiNovember 16, 2015 at 8:09 AM

    sold 50000 with ya

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  14. SCNovember 16, 2015 at 8:15 AM

    To me it's a wait and see right here, and we'll see how things shape up as the week progresses.

    ReplyDelete
  15. louis lombardiNovember 16, 2015 at 9:32 AM

    were would you buy uvxy

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  16. SCNovember 16, 2015 at 10:08 AM

    Around $30 UVXY would be interesting.

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  17. AnonymousNovember 16, 2015 at 10:38 AM

    We have 2 gaps to possibly fill at the 2045 and 2070 region. We have a Bradly model change on the nov 18th Looking to enter UVXY within the next 2 days. I am looking for a possible move down to the 1930 level before entering long. All years ending in 5 have been positive years. Good luck to all.

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  18. AnonymousNovember 16, 2015 at 10:51 AM

    Over the last year, S&P 500 has failed 14 times at or near the 2120 level. That will be the level to watch down the road. If we cross that level, we may blast off to the upside for a Santa Claus rally into end of the year. Combined with the fact all years ending in 5 are positive will make it a very explosive rally that will catch the bears off side once again.

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  19. MikeNovember 16, 2015 at 11:07 AM

    SC, futures low was 1998.50 last night, do you see a lower low than this by Nov 20?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCNovember 16, 2015 at 11:15 AM

      Doubt it, but that level could be retested.

      Delete
    2. MikeNovember 16, 2015 at 11:20 AM

      This bounce sure is stronger than expected, do you still see 2060 target for this bounce?

      Delete
    3. louis lombardiNovember 16, 2015 at 11:25 AM

      how low could we actually go

      Delete
    4. SCNovember 16, 2015 at 11:59 AM

      2050 to 2060 SPX.

      Delete
  20. louis lombardiNovember 16, 2015 at 12:05 PM

    are you expecting down after that level

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    Replies
    1. SCNovember 16, 2015 at 12:13 PM

      Probably SPX retests 2020 or slightly lower.

      Delete
  21. SCNovember 16, 2015 at 12:08 PM

    XIV has reached the bounce target area.

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  22. louis lombardiNovember 16, 2015 at 12:23 PM

    uvxy is now almost 30 should we wait to buy

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  23. sun_shineNovember 16, 2015 at 12:31 PM

    Great calls again SC, do you think XIV could overshoot your target by tomorrow?This one day move was quite fierce!

    ReplyDelete
  24. SCNovember 16, 2015 at 12:58 PM

    UVXY starting to look interesting, but it might be best to let things settle here. I'll think I'll wait for tomorrow.

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  25. louis lombardiNovember 17, 2015 at 5:11 AM

    Smart move waiting

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  26. louis lombardiNovember 17, 2015 at 7:55 AM

    uvxy what do u think

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  27. SKY8November 17, 2015 at 8:32 AM

    SC, are you still looking at UVXY? at what price?

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  28. Be CarefulNovember 17, 2015 at 8:35 AM

    S&P 2130s in less than 10 days.

    ReplyDelete
  29. SCNovember 17, 2015 at 9:33 AM

    Market rally is starting to look tired. It'll probably take another couple days to mature though.

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  30. Be CarefulNovember 17, 2015 at 10:00 AM

    Any closes above 2073 and you'll start seeing crazy gap ups towards 2130-50s.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousNovember 17, 2015 at 11:06 AM

      We have a gap to close up at the 2070 region. I will be buying UVXY if we do get back to the 28 - 29 area. Bradely model shift coming up thou.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousNovember 17, 2015 at 11:10 AM

      Fed meeting on the bradely model date wed. That maybe the ideal time to go with UVXY Waiting for the ideal set up here. If we do indeed fill the gap at the 2070 level and runs, I will switch over to XIV Good luck to all.

      Delete
  31. louis lombardiNovember 17, 2015 at 10:30 AM

    big money being left on table here

    ReplyDelete
  32. EcommerceNovember 17, 2015 at 11:56 AM

    Hi Michael M, what does the Bradely model entail ? Stocks run hard up? Seems like UVXY up already 13% today... your thoughts...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousNovember 17, 2015 at 5:33 PM

      It is usually trend change. Right now I am just swing trading the UVXY. Great action in the last two days. New moon to full moon is usually a bearish Bias for the markets. Good luck to you.

      Delete
  33. SCNovember 17, 2015 at 12:09 PM

    Looks like a range is forming with whipsaws. This is a great environment for trading. Can see very nice moves during the next week. This could get wild!

    XIV would interest me again just under $26.

    ReplyDelete
  34. SCNovember 17, 2015 at 12:19 PM

    I think XIV has a chance at just under $26 here to test trendline support. Charts still look positive. XIV around $30 looks possible next couple days!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. sun_shineNovember 18, 2015 at 8:32 AM

      Do you think XIV can see $26 or under by Friday this week?
      If not, I assume we should out of the woods seasonality wise till early December.

      Delete
    2. louis lombardiNovember 18, 2015 at 11:47 AM

      just wondering were would you buy uvxy

      Delete
  35. louis lombardiNovember 17, 2015 at 12:53 PM

    market looks week

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  36. ScottNovember 17, 2015 at 3:59 PM

    Gold dropped to $10.70 today. I'm interested in seeing your new chart.

    ReplyDelete
  37. MikeNovember 18, 2015 at 9:01 AM

    SC, are you looking at UVXY or XIV at this point?

    ReplyDelete
  38. Be CarefulNovember 18, 2015 at 12:55 PM

    Like I said, monster bull.
    Be CarefulNovember 17, 2015 at 10:00 AM
    Any closes above 2073 and you'll start seeing crazy gap ups towards 2130-50s.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Be CarefulNovember 18, 2015 at 12:55 PM

    You do not short this market. Ever.

    ReplyDelete
  40. sun_shineNovember 18, 2015 at 1:43 PM

    SC, what do you think of the action today?
    Still a couple of days to go for the bearish cycle. Do you expect a little pull back in S&P/XIV before run up higher into December? thanks

    ReplyDelete
  41. SantaNovember 18, 2015 at 2:50 PM

    Hi SC

    are you still waiting on for XIV under 26? or you think we heading to 30 now?

    Cheers!

    ReplyDelete
  42. SCNovember 19, 2015 at 5:51 AM

    Expecting plunge in the market tomorrow or Monday.

    ReplyDelete
  43. SCNovember 19, 2015 at 5:53 AM

    Looking to enter UVXY today for surge up to $37 to $40. XIV playing out as shown in the chart, plunge to $24 to $25 next.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. louis lombardiNovember 19, 2015 at 6:15 AM

      at what price brother for uvxy thank u

      Delete
    2. SCNovember 19, 2015 at 6:40 AM

      UVXY likely bounce a little here and then slide down more for the best entry. Tomorrow looks to be optimal.

      Delete
    3. louis lombardiNovember 19, 2015 at 7:06 AM

      at what entry point uvxy would it be 29 28 27

      Delete
    4. SCNovember 19, 2015 at 9:19 AM

      27

      Delete
    5. rotrotNovember 19, 2015 at 11:17 AM

      today is the day to get onboard the UVXY rocket ship...

      http://tinyurl.com/ndwu7mq

      Delete
  44. rose2797November 19, 2015 at 6:43 AM

    SC, have slv and gld bottomed

    ReplyDelete
  45. EcommerceNovember 19, 2015 at 11:17 AM

    SC, UVXY up 9% to $31.53 , you still think it will goto $27 by tmrw, thanks

    ReplyDelete
  46. SCNovember 19, 2015 at 11:32 AM

    Yes

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  47. Be CarefulNovember 19, 2015 at 12:27 PM

    We will close above 2070 for the remainder of 2015.

    ReplyDelete
  48. SKY8November 19, 2015 at 6:05 PM

    SC, how high do you see SPX with UVXY 27? and when do you think we see SPX 2020?

    ReplyDelete
  49. rose2797November 20, 2015 at 7:08 AM

    SC, somehow, uvxy, vxx are not making low's compared to what they made at around 2100 at the same time

    ReplyDelete
  50. ScottNovember 20, 2015 at 7:22 AM

    Unbelievable call! Keep up the great work.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Be CarefulNovember 20, 2015 at 7:23 AM

    There will be no plunge. 2120 in a few days.

    ReplyDelete
  52. rotrotNovember 20, 2015 at 10:17 AM

    will the Fed raise interest rates on Monday, November 23, 2015?

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-20/fed-hold-expedited-closed-meeting-monday

    ReplyDelete
  53. AnonymousNovember 20, 2015 at 11:45 AM

    Buying some UVXY for a short term trade 28.26 into close. Will exit if we go thru the lows of the day. G/L.

    ReplyDelete
  54. AnonymousNovember 20, 2015 at 12:19 PM

    Sold UVXY from 28.26 at 29.22 Waiting for another set up.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Be CarefulNovember 20, 2015 at 1:43 PM

    Monday will gap up high 2090s. 2070 floor now. 2120s...next. Low volume year end move higher. Nothing shocking.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. rotrotNovember 23, 2015 at 2:54 AM

      is your forecast based on technical analysis? if so, kindly post a chart supporting the forecast...

      Delete
  56. rotrotNovember 21, 2015 at 3:52 AM

    UVXY 120 minute trend chart

    https://twitter.com/allerotrot/status/668029707380727808

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousNovember 21, 2015 at 2:20 PM

      Rotrot, I appreciate your input. I have looked at your graphs. What levels on the UVXY are you looking at? I personally do not see a huge spike up like last Aug. More or less 40 and below. We are due for some kind of pull back in the markets, but again maybe only 40 - 60 sp points before we head much higher into year end. All the best.

      Delete
  57. SCNovember 21, 2015 at 9:33 AM

    New analysis posted!

    ReplyDelete

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