November is setting up to be the weakest month. Cycles are extremely negative for November. The selloff is anticipated to take another 6 weeks to test near the major trendline.
The low is due late November to early December.
4day Chart
UVXY is likely putting in a short term high. It should cool off for 2-3 days to test the blue support which is the August high.
The up trend for UVXY is forming and it is early. Another 6 weeks of upside in this trend is anticipated.
Daily Chart
UVXY is likely putting in the green star high currently. Each bar is one day.
SC, would you comment on Gold's direction and possible path thru Jan 2015?
ReplyDeleteLooking for Gold to drop some more to near $1,000 December, then a several month bounce to $1150.
DeleteBought a batch XIV $24.95.
ReplyDeleteExpecting a sharp rally 2-3 days to start soon, probably today.
ReplyDeleteXIV $30 give or take.
DeleteLooking to get into UVXY next week around $37 give or take.
DeleteVery positive for the market that XIV did not go lower today than yesterday even with UVXY seeing slightly higher today.
ReplyDeleteThis should be the strongest bounce for the market Oct and Nov. Only lasting a couple days though.
ReplyDeleteThank you! Should see at least 1890 SPX in a few days.
ReplyDeletePossibly a little more but best to be conservative on the long side, and starting thinking about shorting again.
ReplyDeleteSC I don't think we'll even get close. There is a massive amount of selling coming into any move near SPX 1860 and it intensifies above that level.
ReplyDeleteConsolidating now, but tomorrow/Mon likely to be more positive imo.
Delete21 VIX next couple days.
ReplyDeleteHey SC
ReplyDeleteThanks for the inputs these couple of days. For sure helping us little guys out. :)
Cheers!
You're welcome. Nice market action!
Delete1900s next. Be careful.
ReplyDeleteHi Be Careful, 1900 is basically a day or two type of job which match SC a day or two big bounce. Are you in agreement with SC here?
ReplyDeleteCheers!
SC I altered my stance. i think this bounce is going to be very powerful and longer than a day or two.
ReplyDeleteCheck out the reversal on the DAX yesterday and the strength in Biotech and R2k.
It's a little different situation for DAX and Russell imo. They have declined for months already and were leading down. So it's natural for them to be firmer now.
DeleteMy outlook remains the same. Only 1-2 days left for the SPX bounce imo. Looking to exit longs and enter short today or Monday.
ReplyDeleteSold all XIV at $29.25.
ReplyDeleteCongrats SC on the gain.
DeleteWell my first block of XIV wasn't well timed so just fixing that. Now in a good position. I had to make some adjustment to my short term charts. Now I believe I have the right plan.
DeleteMarket is acting as expected today.
Probably small dip now for the market but rally into close or Monday.
ReplyDeleteUVXY tested blue support as expected. Probably bounce a little here. The green support is stronger.
DeleteSPX 1890 and VIX 21 targets reached.
ReplyDeleteHey SC
Deleteyou not going to short with target reached?
Cheers!
I am expecting rally to end Mon/Tues, but decided not that attractive to hold longs with upside minimal now. Might see a small dip sometime today for the market but I would rather look to enter short early next week.
DeleteI think we go lower than 21....backtest the old resistance of 18 seems likely....be careful
DeleteVIX 17s next.
ReplyDeleteExpecting the market to rally quite well today and tomorrow. Once that occurs then I'll be looking to go short.
ReplyDeleteHey SC
Deleteyou have any target on this rally for the spx?
Cheers!
Tomorrow looks especially positive for the market in short term Cycles.
DeleteRally to peak around 1925 SPX imo.
DeleteI thought about going long XIV this morning, but it's just better to focus on the short side. Best to be conservative on longs and aggressive on shorts. Until the large VIX Cycle high is due in December that is the best strategy. The big money is to be made shorting!! Any long profits are just a bonus.
ReplyDeleteXIV:UVXY ratio almost 1:1.... Time to swap out xiv for Uvxy
ReplyDeleteHey SC
ReplyDeletewe just hit 1924 ish, you in UVXY?
Cheers!
Bought UVXY at $31.50.
ReplyDeleteVIX has support now from the rising 50dma.
DeleteThe low is due for UVXY in the trend Cycle.
DeleteFri, Mon, and today all looked positive in short term Cycles, for SPX. Tomorrow looks weak. I'm not expecting much this week other than a small dip for the market tomorrow. Next week looks very negative - huge drop next week imo.
ReplyDeleteCharts coming!
SC, if there is no huge drop next week, will you exit your short positions?
DeleteThere's not really a rush to short here. Tomorrow, Thurs, and Fri all look weak but more just some chop with a minor dip this week likely.
ReplyDeleteI'm expecting a major decline next week and am now positioned for that.
1942, let's see what happens there.
ReplyDeleteI looked at my charts but can't see the significance of that number...please explain...watching weekly right now and the monthly buy/sell line has now been crossed
Delete1943 is 61.8% retracement (fib level) from Sep high to Oct low
DeleteThanks, be wary of FOMC meeting next week....
DeleteToo strong. 1963-65 next. VIX crushed.
ReplyDeleteHey SC
ReplyDeleteDo u have a uvxy target?
Hey Be Careful
looka like ur 17 vix has reached today and beyond. Congrats. U have a new low on vix still?
cheers!
UVXY $50 next week, SPX to retest the low near 1820 next week. Then break the low in November.
DeleteVIX is now stretched way too far on the downside. It'll likely snap up moderately for a couple days next, but nothing major will happen this week.
ReplyDeleteI don't believe much will happen this week. The rally has already occurred, and the yes the momentum will keep it from falling much this week, but it can't rise much either.
ReplyDeleteExpecting a small dip for a couple days and just minor chop this week. Next week looks extremely bearish. Those looking for the Fed to rescue the market are going to be disappointed. Gold and Oil declining and really the market is too high anyway.
Later on in my Cycles the market will rally just fine without QE. There is no need for it. It's done.
I don't believe much will happen this week. The rally has already occurred, and yes the momentum will keep it from falling much this week, but it can't rise much either. The market is balanced. Things will settle basically this week.
ReplyDeleteExpecting a small dip for a couple days and just minor chop this week. Next week looks extremely bearish.
I bet today's rally surprised a lot of people.
ReplyDeleteSCOctober 20, 2014 at 7:04 AM
"Tomorrow looks especially positive for the market in short term Cycles."
SC, where do you think we are now?
ReplyDeletehttp://4.bp.blogspot.com/-iKpalnSaTfM/U2-dbeDO6_I/AAAAAAAAB0U/8KjD7F4u72w/s1600/VIXCycleJan2014.png
I'll update it in Nov.
DeleteSold UVXY at $34.90.
ReplyDeleteHey SC
DeleteCongrats SC on the profit, why not keep it till 50 till next week?
Cheers!
Could've but I think can pick it up again around $30. Not expecting much to happen this week.
DeleteHey SC
DeleteUVXY is dropping like a rock, probably will reach your 30$ level tomorrow or friday at this rate.
when do you see this 30$ level reach, this week or next?
Cheers!
profit is always a good thing..cheers..
ReplyDelete14.97 VIX, UVXY 26-27 likely.
ReplyDeleteS&P 2070 maybe late January
ReplyDeleteI'll be shorting soon. UVXY $45 to $50 next week. Very negative cycles about to start.
ReplyDeleteGet ready for a big plunge!!
Where would the plunge take the SPX? Back to the 200 moving average? I would think decline would also take oil below $70. Hard to imagine now given the bullishness today, but who know what would happen next week!
ReplyDeleteOnly 45-50? I thought uvxy was $70-85 target for first white arrow? Or was the first white arrow already hit last week (vix 31/uvxy 57)??
ReplyDeleteUVXY holding the 29 area was critical...intraday charts indicate there is an up move coming...the 31.78 area is first resistance...after that, it's the 33.90 area that needs to be taken out for a meaningful run to the upside...
ReplyDeleteVIX should hit 14s not long from now.
ReplyDeleteS&P should stabilize in the 1920s, if we get that low. 20dma.
Close above 1966 and 50dma and we're going way up, fast. 9% was the correction. It is over. Pretty normal stuff. Two months left in the year, there will be no "plunge" or any of that nonsense. This blog made a VIX spike call which was correct...but that's it, it ended. Drama is complete.
My projection from 3 weeks ago was slightly wrong:
ReplyDeleteBe CarefulOctober 2, 2014 at 5:33 AM
More likely scenario. 2019 to 1880 to 19xx to 1860 to 1950+ end of year. Not really that interesting....pretty normal action.
actually it was wrong by 60 points on down move...that's a lot....
Deletedrama is so far from complete that you might want to re rent this movie....guessing at numbers is a fools game...and empties bank accounts fast...Top is in, that's all you need to know...
Oct 24:
ReplyDeletePath forward is now 1967-1970 to 1925 to new highs and perhaps even 2100 by winter, inverse head and shoulders. Last year same thing, Aug lows..and Oct lows. Market got nervous about US Congress went to 1627 in Fall - then to 1850. This year 1820 to 2020 and beyond. I am a little cautious about Biotechnology...will you look at that chart!?????? Holy shite.
To get our 1925, we have neg divergence on hourly S&P, higher vix here momentarily and the 50dma and weekly middle Bollinger in 1960s.
Important update coming.
ReplyDelete