$24.75 is the maximum target identified for the month of February.
30min Chart
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
TVIX - Larger Moves Coming
Volatility in the markets is expected to increase this month according to my previous S&P 500 analysis. The geometry for TVIX favors a series of large whipsaws in coming weeks. The first target is approximately $23.50. The inverse, XIV, then becomes interesting for periods of time.
$24.75 is the maximum target identified for the month of February.
30min Chart
$24.75 is the maximum target identified for the month of February.
30min Chart
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
In other words blast off!
ReplyDeleteIt'll be interesting to see what happens to Silver and Gold this week. Silver has been flat, and holding well. A moderate dip is possible. I would accumulate Silver on a dip. There are certain spots for Silver that are attractive coming soon. So I will wait for those opportunities.
ReplyDeleteoh I like these charts. TVIX/HVU and XIV are potential big money makers in a short time. If this pans out, that would be great!
ReplyDeleteHi SC
ReplyDeletethat chart makes it too easy...how certain are you on this chart? 50% or 90%? cause today you mention you feel pretty comfortable on a pullback, it didnt happen, so you had to chase.
As well, this move of SnP back to 1360+ that you mention, do you think VIX will follow? Cause I know for a fact that SnP can go up the sametime VIX goes up.
Thanks!
I was looking for a pullback to $17.50-75, and it came down to $17.84. It was close but not close enough to fill my bids.
DeleteSo I had no choice but to chase. I was loathe to do it, but it had to be done.
It is a simplification, but things are looking clear to me.
DeleteThe VIX will still make a higher low with S&P putting in a higher high so I agree with you there.
We did what I was talking about last night. Only this time there was no Bin Laden :-)
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/7trqo47
good call....so you see the S&P heading for a Feb 27th low also eh? Any price ideas?
DeleteI'm horrible on gauging price, but it I'd love to have at least a 5% move lower on the SPX..
DeleteThanks ZigZag, you are "horrible" right. You can call the TIME, and SC can call the PRICE
DeleteHi ZigZag,
DeleteThank you very much for your information.
I hope so ,wish the US market will be good and keep in going up more high, what's your view when the lower on Feb.27th? 1320? or 1330? 1300? thank you for your reply~~
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/312885/Screen%20Shot%202012-02-13%20at%2010.07.40%20AM.png
ZZ, i remember Bin Laden killed silver as well. Is it coming as well :)
ReplyDeleteThat was a monster drop back then. It's very likely that nothing is safe for a couple of weeks..
Delete2 ?'s
ReplyDeleteI am having a problem figuring out what exactly TVIX, VIX are..and the other that you are trading! I have looked them up but for some reason I did not find a clear site or I am just plain stupid! Any direction would be apprecated!
Also Zig, can you not take a ratio from the year you are following for correction? In what I do I see it choppy down into your date but it looks like on your chart it's about %50 retrace! Tx, jon
Jon,
DeleteThe VIX is a measure of implied volatility calculated from market prices for S&P 500 options. It represents the expected volatility in the index over the next 30 days. You can get a free quote here: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^VIX
TVIX is an ETF (exchange-traded fund, a fund that trades like a stock) that tries to achieve double the daily performance of short-term VIX futures.
TVIX DOES NOT trade exactly in unison with the VIX - since it is based on futures, and forward VIX values can differ from spot, I would suggest you avoid trading it unless you understand this distinction. It is possible for VIX and TVIX to diverge considerably.
Hope this answers your first question...
Spud
ReplyDeleteThanks for your response...............now I do know I am stupid! lol
Looking for a choppy down in SnP...should see a bounce here! jon
http://bluechipbulldog.blogspot.com/
ReplyDeleteIn my cycle analysis today looks weak for mkts and tomorrow looks weakest.
ReplyDeleteI'm holding TVIX. There might be some resistance around $21.50, but generally it should rise strongly imo.
The turquoise midfork was tested on the open at $20, and it dipped a little there. Testing it again now.
Finally Silver dipping.
ReplyDeleteIn your opinion, will silver continue to drop tomorrow ?
DeleteIf yes, it will be weaker or lighter ?
Thanks
I've been bebating how much it comes down this week. At the most it would be $31.40 for the future. It may not come down this much though either.
DeleteNext week I am quite sure it'll reach $36.
Really interesting. So far, my forecasts for this week have been pretty accurate.
DeleteI agree with you that tomorrow silver is expected to drop but I do not have any target in terms of price.
This weekend I am going to share my thoughts on silver for next week !
Hi SC
ReplyDeleteLooking at the graph, it looks like the major bounce for TVIX is on friday. Guess you may plan to sell at that point. And go into XIV for the long weekend. Do you feel it is safe to hold XIV over the long weekend, in fact, hold anything over the long weekend?
Thanks!
If it does make it up there tomorrow I would switch into XIV for the weekend. It is possible we may not hit that level until Monday morning.
ReplyDeleteNDX still weak. Going down.
HI SC
ReplyDeleteMonday is closed for PRES day, but TUESDAY should leave NO doubt
HOUSTON, we've got a PROBLEM
Jaywiz
Yes, right Tues. Thank you.
ReplyDeleteWell, the holiday presents a problem for you SC doesn't it as you work off timing cycles? Therefore, Monday being a Holiday should not matter to the cycle.....or do I have this wrong?
ReplyDeleteI won't take chances, if HVU is anywhere near $14, I'm selling it.
Hi SSS76
DeleteI am with you, aint waiting for Tuesday, if HVU hit anywhere near 14, I am bouncing and re-assess the situation. Thinking SC may do the same. Right SC?
Thanks!
Let's see how it shapes up today/tomorrow, and can decide.
DeleteHi SC
ReplyDeleteWOW, what a market, just keeping climbing higher, VIX going higher too, curious to know if we still going to hit the target in near term, cause only like what 1 or 2 trading days left. We getting a ton of good news (good numbers) btw.
Thanks!
SC, do you have a stop in place, or are you just so confident that HVU is going to $14+.....
ReplyDelete1341 held like a champ so far.............going to give it 3pts leeway but should it continue to hold we move higher into tues-wed.
ReplyDeleteVery confident, SPX hanging in there, but NDX is telling the story, much weaker. Bears have the upper hand.
ReplyDeleteok, good, lol. Curious though, the NDX is positive right now....why is it telling the story? Nevermind, dropping as I type.
DeleteSPX made slight higher highs for the last hour, but NDX made lower highs for the last hour.
DeleteNDX really struggling from yesterday afternoon. Lowers highs.
Hi Sc
DeleteAre you going to sell at $21.50 then rebuy lower
Maybe, but it wont be much of a retracement. I generally just want to hold. We'll see....
DeleteThe VIX tested the 50 day avg last Fri. VIX tested the 50 day avg again yesterday, and today the VIX futures are just catching up to where the cash VIX was already yesterday.
ReplyDeleteVIX finding a little resistance at the 50 day, but it is testing hard and should pop above.
TVIX still worth getting into if below 19 here? Seems like it could resume it's uptrend pretty fast. It just filled it's gap from yesterday. Maybe that's all we'll get.
ReplyDeleteMy chart is still super bullish for TVIX.
DeleteThanks for all of your help. I'm back in. Thought I missed the boat yesterday. I see it bouncing off support at 19. Hope it holds. Don't see S&P going much higher. AAPL looking pretty weak still too.
DeleteYes, exactly, AAPL is key. I have an updated chart coming for Apple. It'll dip more for now.
DeleteFilled the gap on TVIX, but NDX still weak. Would have been a trade. I am holding.
ReplyDeleteAnnoying dip for TVIX, but does not change anything in my analysis.
ReplyDeleteNDX still weak, still a lower high from 2:30 ET yesterday.
ReplyDeleteAny ideas on silver? Did we see our last dip below 33 for a while and now off to the races?
ReplyDeleteIt is possible. Even if it dips more, $36 next week looks likely to me.
DeleteHope you don't mind my 2 cents but I did see a potential bullish structure playing out on one of my 'experimental' studies (been doing them for a few years now). Not sure on the time scale yet as the pattern could be only 20% developed. It was neutral to bullish up until today's action kicked it up a notch. It's not a price-following study. Longer term is bearish on the same studies at a larger time scale. Just my observations. Not a recommendation, I leave those to SC. Not trying to rain on the bigger picture which I agree looks bearish.
ReplyDeleteInteresting. Feel free to share anything here. My work is bearish for a few days Fri/Tues, but then bullish for next week. Perhaps your work is also suggesting this?
DeleteThanks for your comments, SC. Since the pattern is not confirmed until it gets at least past 50% in, it could morph in the next day or so into a more bearish shape. Then I have to see what happens after that completes. Right now it may well be topping mid-pattern which is often followed by a move down to some level(or chops around) before it heads back up . The timing for an estimated completion is more predictable when it is above 50% developed. It could fit your scenario. Sorry I can't be more specific.
DeleteAddendum: Actually I would expect it to show it's bearish form by the end of today/tomorrow. Either one could fit your scenario,
DeleteHi SC
ReplyDeleteWondering if you bought some dip today with TVIX?
Thanks!
No, actually I am not sure if it happens but I am starting to suspect that TVIX could come down as low as $17.50-60 today. It could be possible, but not sure.
ReplyDeleteImportantly, this would not change my analysis if it happened. I am holding. If it does, I will add. Tomorrow looks weaker in my cycle analysis. I still like $23.50 tomorrow or Tues.
and where do you decide to cut your losses? It can be fatal to hold on too long to these ETFs....
DeleteA stop under that level could be placed, but everything I am seeing is still confirming the move higher even with a deep retrace today.
DeleteMight be right. NDX/AAPL/SPX all moving up now. Guess I'm holding now.. Maybe buy a little extra.
DeleteYes, but Apple is much weaker than yesterday. So that still is a confirming factor.
DeleteSure enough there it goes.
My bounce moved up nicely, now off to the bank......just went flat! I expect these type of up and down moves if I am correct for 10 days or so! jon
ReplyDeleteSorry, this is that $17.50-75 level I thought should have tested yesterday. Here we are...
ReplyDeleteyou do realize though, that given the retracement today depending how it ends up, would mean that tomorrow would have to be a historic day to reach $23.50 TVIX......
ReplyDeleteNote likely SC.
I'll be very happy just to get back to 19! lol
DeleteSS76,
DeleteI totally agree with you there, MEGA news to put a punch through that 19$ right now. Dont know about 23.5
Thanks!
1341 held and thus this ripper.............I will not rule out another test of it however so maybe a chance for SC's move down tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteBelieve it or not even with the action today, the TVIX chart is becoming more and more bullish.
ReplyDeleteWould not surprise me if it gaps up $3 tomorrow.
DeleteHi SC
DeleteTotally agree with what the chart say. But how about what the news say?
Thanks!
TVIX 50/200DMA cross wide open to the downside..
ReplyDeleteSC, I have noticed an interesting correlation on tvix using the 5(ema) and the 10(sma). A majority of the time whenever the tvix moves decisively above the 10(sma) on a daily chart, the 5(ema) appears to form a support boundary. Also whenever the tvix gets a certain distance above the 5(ema) while still above the 10(sma), it often pulls back. This seems to occur quite regularly. Just thought your readers might want to track that to see if it pans out going forward.
ReplyDeleteThanks, let me look at that.
DeleteOf course, this correlation is less workable when the moves are at a bigger degree but seem to be practical at turns as we have now.
DeleteEveryone has forgotten about Greece, surprise tonight?
ReplyDeleteHi SC
Deletewe dont care about news lol, only technical baby.
Thanks!
Watching 1358-1363 here SPX.
ReplyDeleteSC, Excellent point on Greece....I am with you, this market has already accounted Greece bailout in current level....only way this ship can turn back is Greece mess and I am sure it will come...why EURO is going up? many countries been downgraded few days ago, Greece is in black hole...so EURO strength is just doesn't make sense.
ReplyDeleteThanks
Plunge protection team. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the FED just buys everything up. Keeping it propped up a little longer. It is tiring watch everything rallying constantly on very bad news.
DeleteSC, can I comment? Market does not care about events/news generally - only about following herd behavior to make money. The patterns play out according to other factors involving investor behavior. This is always a difficult concept to comprehend. In fact I now say to myself: 'bad' news - market more likely to go up. It proves out time and again.
DeleteThanks Stuart.
DeleteJust wondering why TVIX looks more bullish? Particularly when its down 5% after being up 6%?
ReplyDeleteWhat makes it more bullish now vs near term bearish?
It is like an elastic band stretched on the downside now.
DeleteIf TVIX slumps into the close I am going to be very aggressive buying. This would be a test of the pink line or orange line. Around $17.50 or slightly lower.
ReplyDeleteThere is potential to open way up tomorrow for TVIX in my opinion. Chart is super bullish. The risk looks low from my point of view.
This is not advice just simply what I am planning.
There are a combination of factors. Lower high for NDX today from yesterday. VIX has been rising overall lately. Apple has rolled over.
ReplyDeleteThe geometric pattern on the chart above is ridiculously bullish near term for TVIX. I have some other patterns that I have not mentioned, but all confirming here.
Careful with stops into the close. Tight stops are not a good idea here imo.
Looks like the markets spiked on the Greece situation being solved.\sarc.
ReplyDeleteFrom reuters:
"We are almost there," one euro zone official said.
"Unless someone really comes up with an idea to undermine the whole deal, it should be approved on Monday," the official said of a regular meeting of the currency bloc's finance ministers in Brussels.
In a further sign of an emerging accord, euro zone sources said national central banks in the currency bloc would this weekend exchange holdings of Greek bonds in the run-up to a private sector debt deal to avoid taking forced losses.
With a go-ahead from the euro zone finance ministers, Greece can formally launch a debt restructuring offer to its private creditors which aims to halve in nominal terms what Greece owes to investors, slashing its debts by 100 billion euros.
all noise to buy time.They want greece out.This gives them time to cover their asses better.Not going to work,though.
Delete1358 holding it so far............we shall see.
ReplyDelete1358-1363 is an important zone...........if it doesn't hold it we go up to 1370-1375ish by tues-wed.
ReplyDeleteman.....HVU and TVIX getting hammered. Thing is, the elastic band can get stretched quite a bit, and if next week is bullish, then we'll be at 1373 - 1400.
ReplyDeleteOvernight is going to be interesting. I'm getting ready to double my TVIX position to a max position size before the close. Rare opportunity imo.
DeleteCareful with Silver shorts because it could spike tomorrow on fear trade.
SC,
DeleteStill looking for 1326 by tomorrow?
Tomorrow or Tues morning at latest.
DeleteThanks.
DeleteHi SC
Deletewhat if it doesnt pan out, curious to know what your stop is for TVIX, if you have one?
Thanks!
Anything under $17 unacceptable.
Deleteok, it all set and ready to play ball...limit to stop out and limit to sell...awesome...
DeleteThanks SC
Fear trade? Fear needs to develop. There is no fear right now, at least according to option activity.
Deletebesides, 20 point move in any direction is almost "normal" these days, they just keep buying..
ReplyDeleteMax pain into the close. I hope this rubber band is stretched by now. S&P maybe closing with new high. I don't see how it can't open even higher now, but still holding TVIX.
ReplyDeleteDoubled my TVIX position $17.54.
ReplyDeleteYou got balls of steel SC!!!
Delete$17.45 is the pink line, $17.20 is the orange line.
ReplyDeleteLet's see if we open at $21 or better.
Wow, will have to be a major catastrophe for that to happen SC. No buying it, but hoping you are right.
DeleteSC, I really hope you are right!!!
DeleteIt looks promising, and heavily positioned.
DeleteI don't know, from an EW perspective, this run up doesn't look complete. I think we have 1 more leg to go before we top out. I'm expecting 1365-1368.
ReplyDeleteChris, these are some brave men. There is a chance of a pull-back (not sure how much) within the larger trend tomorrow/Tuesday and it's looking like more up to come after that.
DeleteHi StuartD
Deleteaint brave, just stupid lol.
Thanks!
That's what I usually say to myself when I step in front of something coming toward me. The tvix certainly can whip about but I don't care to chance a 'whipping' personally.
DeleteSC, that's a bold prediction! Giddy by my success yesterday (trading in, out, and back into 5000 shares of HVU for a whopping $852 profit) I tried it again today, with disasterous results, having bought at 12.16. I held, however, hoping that longs will get nervous ahead of a three day weekend. I hope that even half your expectation is met; another day like today and my whole position will be under water. : (
ReplyDeleteLOL markets rally on Greece deal....When will we learn?
ReplyDeleteWhen will the Europeans learn?
There is only one thing I can guarantee! And that is that Greece will say whatever it has to to get the money. See what happens after they get it.
Samaras the leader of Nea Demokratia and likely the next leader of Greece has already said that "modifications" will likely have to be made.
WAKE UP WORLD!!!!!!!
Wow, I am surprised by today's rally. It came before the sp1326 target. Do you think it satisfies the sp1363 target now, or from a timing perspective still too early?
ReplyDeleteStill too early, down first.
DeleteIMO spx 1363 should stop move then a good drop
ReplyDeletewith tvix, nothing is impossible, especially with the volatility these few days. Back in late Oct, I woke up one day to see TVIX gapped up for 30% and then the next day it went up another 30%, so SC prediction of $3 gap up is not unthinkable, with today's closing price of 17.5, a 30% gap up would be $5.1, so SC is rather conservative! LOL we will see what the morning brings.
ReplyDeleteJust FYI.................VIX Sell SPX buy signal was trigged today.
ReplyDeleteBe careful.
Look at the daily stochastic of TVIX, it's still pointing up.
ReplyDeleteWould not be in the slightest bit surprised if TVIX gapped up tomorrow.
It should, I'm feeling good about it. TVIX is like a game of chess. Always have to think a few steps ahead. It is a balance of defense and offence.
DeleteIt is ok if a bishop, knight or rook is nabbed, but the king and queen must always be protected.
No matter what, at the end of every session, there is a move you wish you would have done differently...
If you are holding TVIX at this level, rest assured, you might feel some pain now, but the return will be phenomenal. Back to my late Oct trade, i bought at 42, in the next 2 days, it went to 36, I held on and after another 2 days I was able to sell at 60. $18,000 for 4 days, it takes guts to play TVIX, but you are afraid to buy now, what happens when it is at 60 going to 100? The risk reward is definitely way high there for the pain in the short term.
ReplyDeleteSC the more I look at it the more I think you could be right.
ReplyDeleteYesterday the slow stoch was pointing down and even though price dropped today to end down nearly 8%, the stoch has moved up to give us a positive divergence.
Cheers
Yes, and also don't forget the VIX/TVIX went parabolic last Fri at the end of a long downtrend. Very bullish and good sign of a trend change - and look at the volume lately!
DeleteSC,
DeleteANY CHANCE OF THIS FALLING BELOW 17.00 AND FILLING THE 16.20 GAP
sam, I see no gap @ 16.20. It gapped up on Friday but that gap got filled Monday
DeleteThere is a small gap there. We'll fill it, but not now imo. I have a chart coming that shows when that gap is anticipated to fill.
DeleteNot on this chart unless it's bad data
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TVIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p65342328103
Or according to this data:
Deletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=TVIX&a=01&b=8&c=2010&d=01&e=16&f=2012&g=d
TOS shows no gap for TVIX.
DeleteThe Gap was Tuesday morning 16.30 to Tuesday own 16.70
DeleteNO gaps.... check again. They have all been filled.
DeleteDJIA got a strong bounce today,back into holding mode, looks positive for tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteS&P and Nasdaq 100 both have slight lower highs from yeaterday. RUT is weaker and was stronger earlier in the month of Feb. The weak RUT is another bearish indication.
ReplyDeleteRLX is lagging too.
Delete$TRAN also has been slumping since early Feb.
DeleteI know I sound like a broken record here but I would be careful here..............looking at the chart we may open up a point or two tomorrow to about 1363............then 1350ish may be the only pullback you get until we rip to 1375ish tues-wed. I still have no sell signal.
ReplyDeleteckorey, balanced opinions like yours are welcome, but i'm not SC lol
ReplyDeleteThanks SS76...............just trying to keep it real :-)
ReplyDeleteHoly $#$@ SC, i think i see your massive rally in metals into April! Im getting mid April low 40's on silver futures. Does not make any sense.. has got to be something around the corner that would start buying frenzy, i have not looked at gold yet but damn!
ReplyDeletekey word here - learn the history.
In your opinion SC, is SP500 going to drop today ?
ReplyDeleteBased on futures today will be almost a flat day
ReplyDeleteThank you very much for your information.
ReplyDeleteI hope so ,wish the US market will be good and keep in going up more high, what's your view when the lower on Feb.27th~29th?
1320? or 1330? 1300? thank you for your reply~~
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/312885/Screen%20Shot%202012-02-13%20at%2010.07.40%20AM.png
sc, you holding txiv full position till Tuesday regardless of what happens today? looks like your target of $23 wont be reached. What is your plan today?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI'm holding. I don't see much upside for the mkt.
ReplyDeleteWill you be posting new chants today
DeleteTVIX still dropping. Hoping for a hold around 17. This could get ugly fast.
ReplyDeleteYes, will have new charts. I am still targeting that $23.50, but will wait for next week.
ReplyDelete1420-1440 is possible before this madness is over. rally from here into late feb.
DeleteCame in flat, selling longs yesterday......going short now....building short position! jon
ReplyDeleteIt holds here or my 1370 tues-wed target gets hit. As bullish as I am I'm amazed by the relentless buying in this market.
ReplyDeleteI have said this before and this is third time, Bulls will take DOW closer to 13K, that is their plan....
ReplyDeleteNot that I am enjoying, I am short on all my holdings...
Cheers
And now looking at chart.............we could drop to 1350-1355 before launching again which means we go 1400-1420 next 2 weeks or so.
ReplyDeleteNDX didn't even manage a new high this morning from yesterday. Weak.
ReplyDeleteLooking like my ascending triangle is playing out to perfection...........which means we test 1353 - 1355 then move higher. As posted holding 1341 the other day was key.
ReplyDeleteI respect SC's work here but I am mostly on the other side..............just something to think about as another option.
SC,
ReplyDeleteCan you explain why it went wrong?
SPX came down into the mid 1330's overnight. I thought we could could test 1326, but did not quite make it. 1363 was my target and we are here. I still like the plan of declining into Feb 27th 1289 SPX or so.
ReplyDeleteSo top out today or Tues not much higher, if any, and down.
Today opened the trading volume rising
ReplyDeleteSuper burst a large number of
I'm confused.............I thought you were looking for 1326 today?
ReplyDeleteYou now count the overnight trading in your work?
The market today has make it clear that the only dip we had was that one overnight rather than 1326. That is fine. So now I don't have much expecation for today/Tues, but 1289 into Feb 27th remains my next target.
ReplyDeleteHi SC
DeleteSo now that 1326 have already past, would you consider going XIV today?
Thanks!
TVIX in a down channel and at the top of the channel here............do you see that?
ReplyDeleteI would never consider XIV here because I see the next major move to the downside for mkts. I'm staying in TVIX. Yes, I see that trend line.
ReplyDeleteMy avg is $18.31 for TVIX. I'm still pleased with that positioning for the next move.
ReplyDeleteSC, your confidence, even when under water, is helping me stay calm. My huge HVU position ave. Is now 10.25 after yesterday's mistake of buying high. I am going to sit tight with you. Even if the Greece deal gets done (as I expect it will) it may be a sell the news event after a brief euphoria.
ReplyDeleteThere are always should'ves, and could'ves, but I still like the main plan so I stay focused.
ReplyDeleteIf this trades up to $18.20 I may even sell some to rebuy in the low $17. I doubt we see much happen now until Tues.
Agreed.......will be a flat day.
ReplyDeleteI think TVIX prints in 15's next week.
I think TVIX bottomed this morning, and puts in a higher low on Tues $17ish. The orange and blue lines held as support this morning. That level should be rock solid.
ReplyDeleteThen we see $23.50 on the Friday 24th or Monday 27th.
I'm still seeing another couple of percent higher to go... this pull back looks corrective, and we should start to continue higher probably by the end of the day. My target is 1378 give or take.
ReplyDeleteBut I'm in sidelines mode because this rally seems dangerous to chase.
If we close at 1354 today............we spike on Tuesday how high will determine where TVIX goes.
ReplyDeleteBut please admit that the call was wrong and it would be helpful to those who followed you in why it went wrong.
My cycle analysis was negative for today, but just a minor. Nasdaq is down quite a bit actually. I can see it was just a minor today, not a major, and so this is why my suggestion yesterday of the possibility of a larger decline today did not come to fruition. This is fine - I will wait.
ReplyDeleteThis means the next dates are the major Feb 24th or 27th.
Hi SC
ReplyDeleteyou dont think we blow upward (TVIX rock bottom again) on tuesday toward 23th, before this 24th turn dates or the 27th?
Lot of ppl is calling 1370-1380 already for early next week.
Thanks!
Tues is the best candidate for a SPX top, but if the mkt declines into the close today, then the upside is really minimal from my point of view. Then, a sharp decline starting early next week into the 24th or 27th is next imo.
ReplyDelete1289-95 SPX is my target on that decline.
ReplyDeleteI hope you are right SC, I'm still short
ReplyDeleteSC, do you assume that decorrelation between SP500 and precious metals is going to start next week ?
ReplyDeleteYes, the metals are about to decouple in my opinion. Fear trade next week...Greece?
ReplyDeleteI would be looking for $36 for the Silver future around Feb 24-27th.
SC,
ReplyDeleteSince last year or so, everytime fear trade came in picutre..i.e. greece going bankrupt or something metal and commodities in general tank big time always, so if you saying greece will be in mess next week and PM will go up...I don't see that is happening...PM I think became inflation headge right now...and also europe trouble will put big pressure on EURO and USD can skyrocket which will again go against metal price increase....
Just my thoughts....
You could be right. Well, put it this way even if Silver declines modestly initially ($31.40 could be possible), I see is surging higher soon afterwards to $36. Gold around $2,050 first week of March is what I am targeting.
ReplyDeleteSc
ReplyDeleteWhen do you plan on going long the metals? Tx, jon
Next week could be optimal.
ReplyDeleteSC, now that your 1363 target has been hit way ahead of time, how does this change your view on SPX?
ReplyDeleteIn my work the timing now solidifies a decline into the Feb 24th-27th date.
ReplyDeleteHmm, what I mean to ask was, are you still thinking there will be another rally back up to these levels once the SPX sells off? This seems to be more of a speculative blow off type move as evident in the moves by AAPL/NDX. Once the selling begins - this doesn't look like it's going to stop anywhere soon.
DeleteWatch 1354 by the close............then comes the Tuesday spike.
ReplyDeleteA close below 1354 and we may be done for a bit.
I think we top out today or Tues. Then 1289-95 then I still think an impressive reflex bounce back up sharply, but a lower high. Watch out after that bounce....
ReplyDeleteAgree, some selling into the close today more likely than not. Also agree Tues spike, but not much higher. NDX looks awful today. Red flag for next week overall.
ReplyDeleteTuesday spike might surprise on the upside and continue into wed.
ReplyDeleteIf 1354 holds by the close we could be looking at 1375 or higher.
TVIX will suffer if that's the case so be mindful.
DJIA index weekly uptrend looks untouched going into next week. Banking sector, while it has generated divergence, is still looking up into next week. Looks positive here.
ReplyDeleteSC are you still short spx?
ReplyDeleteYes, plan to cover at 1289-95.
ReplyDeleteAnother possibility to consider is open lower on Tues, rally into close Tues, decline after that. This may be the most probable.
ReplyDeletePossible but not likely.
DeleteIn that case I would look for 1341-1345 to hold again and then spike.
DeleteClose is key today..............looking more and more bullish the longer they hold it up here.
ReplyDeletePossible gap and go over 1363 on Tuesday.
Is this going to change the story in Europe crisis deal next week? German president quit after scandle accusation...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/1132961--german-president-christian-wulff-quits-over-scandal?bn=1
To me a high close today makes a low open more likely on Tues. NDX refusing to rally today.
ReplyDeleteStill think we go lower into close but we shall see. Too hard to catch things on that short a time frame.
DeleteThat is a good point Stockboom. There could be more to that story than meets the eye... We will find out next week.
ReplyDeleteWhy is everyone buying going into a long weekend? Afraid to miss a huge run up? None of this makes sense. TVIX getting pounded either way. Ouch.
ReplyDeleteAsk the question of what would shock most traders from this level that most are looking for a correction?
ReplyDeleteAnswer is a melt up that they would be forced to chase thus driving it higher.
I don't trade on that or any news just the chart but something to think about if you are holding TVIX.
Yes and based on the chart, looking at it again on a 30 min, 1 hour, and 4 hour, it all looks bullish and going higher. Yes we may have a spike down on Tuesday, but this market looks to me like it still has steam to run for the majority of next week based on the charts.
ReplyDeleteEveryone keeps trying to call the top. Well, eventually they will be right. A broken clock is right twice a day. But as they say, the trend is your friend.
Agreed
DeleteThe strength on no volume is amazing but price is truth.
ReplyDeleteYes, I agree I stay with the trend as well. Higher lows for TVIX from early Feb :)
ReplyDelete