Daily Chart
Silver has been trading flat but finally should be ready to dip, and then rally up strongly. In approximately 4 weeks, Silver futures should reach $38 according to the geometry and timing/price box pattern.
Only the next couple of moves are shown on the chart. Updates will be coming at a later date.
60min Chart
so again you are expecting disconnect of metals from the market, which did not happen in january.. What has changed? .. or again everything rallies into the spring?
ReplyDeleteAt this point I still see them all being correlated. However, precious metals can make higher highs with SPX making lower highs.
ReplyDeleteGold and Silver are both up much more % than SPX since the end of Dec. So it is the same outperformance that I expect to continue, but choppy prevails with SPX making lower highs.
There could be some disconnects later in the month/early March with fear trade.
So then you are not expecting any significant market sell off until mid march or so?
DeleteWell theres the signal boys. Time to short.
ReplyDeletesc
ReplyDeleteDo you have any date estimate for this correction bottom in Silver? tx, jon
Sc
ReplyDeleteThe reason I ask is I have the Silver correction ending by the end of the week! Are you in that ballpark? tx, jon
I think there is a window up until Feb 14th, preferably this week.
DeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteFor silver and Gold to detached from S & P needs big serious reason, and even if that happens not sure it will detach.
Near term events that can effect are Greece, Iran war, Syria conflict etc, and in all these events I see USD going higher and may see parabolic move up and that will take both metals and market down significantly.
Just my thoughts.
Thanks
SC
ReplyDeleteThanks...............just went short! jon
Interesting muted reaction to the Greece news......looks like it was priced in? Perhaps we sell off....
ReplyDeletecommodities are up, but like I mentioned earlier this could be sell on news type reaction.
Deletewe will see, market is seriously due for major correction
I agree. I have my HVU stop in at $9.05. Not taking chances here either. I Bought HSD at the close yesterday, that one I am comfortable holding as I don't see this market heading straight for 1400, I see 1300 first.
Deletesc
ReplyDeleteMeat to say went short the emini not silver ......buving silver! jon
SC, so technically its possible this pause that we had in metals is all we will get... with no further dip?
ReplyDeleteMost likely metals dip short term, but the trend for the metals is up, and the better opportunity later this month is on the long side imo.
DeleteSo best to pick spots carefully.
HI SC
DeleteIve been projecting a FEB 23rd PIVOT LOW, followed by
a HUGE SPX & GOLD rally thru March 14th initially, but not ending till the EOM.
Ive published a graph for my VPN group showing those parameters earlier this month
ITS POSSIBLE the FEB high wont hit until Monday at 2pm
Beset Wishes
Jay
sc
ReplyDeleteIam with you on metals..........I have a leg up here with shallow dip! jon
Sold TVIX at $15.68. My entry was at $14.48. I'm just not sure short term if it settles back or has more to run. Ultimately a move over $21 is the target. I will sit back and see how it acts here next for a bit.
ReplyDeleteIf it settles back I will buy, and watch for another entry.
The OCT 10th 2007 TOP at SPX 1576 was 1576 days to FEB 3rd as previously noted by many,
ReplyDeleteBUT the MKT did NOT break down till 5 days later thus FEB 10th comes into FOCUS.
And OCT 18th was the 20 yr anniv of the 1987 crash
the EURO COT as shown BY McClellan indicates a top on or about the 8th
including the 24th which I have mentioned and noted on the E graphs, as a PIVOT LOW for the 23rd
The ELLIOTT graph indicates 1357 as an absolute top- but its NOT a MUST DO ??
SC, any idea when NDX will go down? It keeps rising nonstop even as SPX and RUT turned. Also, any time/price target?
ReplyDeleteI have been watching that closely as well. NDX is still weaker than SPX since the Oct low. Yet, it has been holding well in Jan, and still holding. Perhaps that is what we are waiting for to see a turn in these markets.
DeleteThe NDX should weaken first. I'll show some charts on that index. It is an important part of the picture going forward.
How will the miners perform wtih this gold parabolic move?
ReplyDeleteI am new to this blog. Is this guy usually right? sometimes right? Does he track his performance? I mean what are the chances of someone calling a parabolic move in gold to start next couple of weeks?
I think most here would agree that my Gold/Silver analysis has been pretty decent overall.
DeleteThe smaller movements are hard to predict with precision, but I have confidence in my work for the metals overall.
Goodness knows, you think to 1044 of SP500 and then sell after a rise of 6%. Tvix. The potential is area 45/50.... If you believe the crash. Otherwise he seems as much an attempt to me for tests and mistakes.
ReplyDeleteSC... is your target of 1285 - 1290 on the SPX over the next week changed now? As in do you still see a dip to those levels?
ReplyDeletePlease advice.
Thanks
I still see that being the next move. The market has been really slow this week, that level is a target for next week imo.
DeleteActually that is an 8.3% gain in 5 trading days. Nothing wrong with that in my books.
ReplyDeleteI'll sit back and look for another entry on it.
Nothing wrong at all with taking profit.
ReplyDeleteSC
ReplyDeletelol.............NICE! jon
Some thoughts I am having are that the VIX is up 1.76%, but TVIX is up 6.95%. 2x VIX % is 3.52%. This is a rough calc, and the TVIX doesn't have to abide by this since it is based on futures. However, for right this moment the valuation might be slightly rich based on what the VIX is doing.
ReplyDeleteNDX is holding strong. Bears want to see this weaken. Tomorrow my cycle analysis is positive for mkts. It's hard to see any upside, but perhaps we need a little more time for this momentum to burn off.
We're in the zone here. Might top today, or early next week.
ReplyDeleteI'm still bullish on the year.
http://tinyurl.com/6vbeuzu
Nice chart ZZ, thank you.
DeleteRSI now at 75.56, Bollinger Band at the top band, and the Bollinger band width very narrow....a solid move in any direction will trigger a big reaction....I'm betting its down.
ReplyDeleteZigZag
ReplyDeleteDownside target 1280? Thanks for charts..Appreciate it.
Take Care!
Hi Moneyman..Somewhere around there looks good. I mainly follow time and I'm not very good on price. Once we start seeing this pullback the next low is likely in late Feb early March.
DeleteSC .. are you still short the s&p?
ReplyDeleteYes, still short. I freed up a lot of cash with my earlier sell of TVIX so I am in a more flexible position now.
DeleteI have enough reasons to remain short. Tomorrow I will decide if it is time to build up further short positions.
SC, it would be reasonable to expect larger volatility swings as the market turns which could also produce lower price points on TVIX as it often goes deeper even on lower highs after a top. Not a given, just an observation on possibilities.
DeleteYes, that is often the case.
DeletePrinting a Hammer on the $SPX.........looks like the top is in!
ReplyDeleteZigZag
ReplyDeleteInteresting! So you can probably buy stocks or PM:s after this correction?
So you think that we easy will go higher than 1370 in SPX later this year..? After this correction..!
Yes, I plan on adding to longs after this correction. We still have a few more cycle peaks to go and we'll likely be trading above 1,370 this year.
DeleteWell I've heard so many "top is in" calls over the past month, I've lost count.... using every type of indicator EW, TA, cycles, sentiment, astrology(!), news stories, the list goes on. Each time, they were wrong and we keep marching higher.
ReplyDeleteBottom line: I'll believe it when I see it lol.
I hear ya Chris. We'll see. Stopped out of HVU at $9.58 but bought double the amount of shares at $9.61 when I realized that this Greece situation is actually gonig to turn very negative and couple that with the fact that the SPX is very overbought on the RSI indicator, which if you go back several years you will see is quite reliable that the pullback wil happen from this level.
ReplyDeleteChris, i also see a scenario where nothing happens with greece, and they kick the can down the road. We shake off the over-bought conditions and correct through time. Betting on some event happening ... no thank you.
ReplyDeleteHow many times "top is in" was said in july/august? something to think about. I bet if you plot "top is in" vs "time" on this and other blogs you could get a really nice contrary indicator..
Oh don't get me wrong. I hope you're right. I'm one of the Bears. I actually thought the top was in below 1300. I'm still expecting a double digit decline in the market before we resume a larger rally upwards. Bernanke needs an excuse to implement QE3 also, and I think he's secretly hoping for a decline as well Lol.... so we can get QE3 in before election times.
ReplyDeleteYup, we're in agreement, but your sentiments I thought are bang on. I've acted with conviction before and gotten burned, but I do think this time the top is in at least short term before as you said a higher rally. Whether we drop to 1044, I don't know, but I probably won't be short if that happens cause I'll chicken out well before that.
DeleteSC
ReplyDelete"Gold and Silver are due to dip somewhat short term."
CME cuts margins for Gold, Silver effective after Monday's trading hrs. Wouldn't this be positive for the PMs next week?
yes, one would think so. First they declare we will keep money flowing then they say it will cost you less to open and maintain your positions, looks like they are trying to bring back the small specs? Hedgies are tried of playing with themselves, need fresh meat? lol
ReplyDeleteMonday bloodbath coming for the SPX? We may get that 1290 if the downward momentum picks up...
ReplyDeleteLet's see how it goes. This market has been slow lately. It could bounce and take time. I'm wondering if we bounce into Monday morning and then selloff into Wed.
ReplyDeleteSilver has not come down much.
Greek negotations heading into Wed it seems.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/46338474
"The finance minister made clear that the fate of the package and the PSI (Private Sector Involvement) bond swap depended on what Greece decided in the next few days.
"Until the next Eurogroup which will most likely convene on Wednesday, our country, our people should think and make a final strategic choice," he said."
SC, banking index (BKX) does not look that bad at all ... i dont see it going into crash mode yet. correct - perhaps, but crash in progress?
ReplyDeleteI agree. Remember my patterns show chop for most of Feb, and then the steep declines in March. It'll take time for sure. Slowly, but surely it is weakening...
DeleteLikely that we can bounce higher into Monday. Then, I think a test of support at 1330 SPX is next.
How does this apply to TVIX? I got out too early in the high 15s. It seems unstoppable now. Do you think we pull back into the 16s at least? Thanks.
DeleteSC, so when you made that crash call a few days ago you relied on your timing patterns more than on other conventional parameters? wouldnt it be better to match both and when they agree issue a warning, instead of calling a top and then moving targets higher and higher for weeks and weeks?
Deletei'd think most people would rather get in when the move is beginning and there are confirmations vs being waaaay to early. just my thoughts.
AM, very good point. I think that is what I am trying to do on my own. I'm using TA, considering SC's timing analysis, and then making partial decisions in case I get it wrong. Look for HVU to run into the close. Bought at $8.90, sold at $11.05, rebought at $11.21.
DeleteThe optimal time to short in terms of price is as close to a top as possible. What the charts have all shown is that lower highs are needed before large declines.
DeleteIt is a matter of preference. One can wait and short on lower highs with more confirmation. However, pricing won't be optimal then. So that is the tradeoff.
Yes, I do think TVIX comes back down as well.
DeleteI couldn't wait lol. Loaded back up at 19. This thing is moving!
DeleteHey SC, what are your thoughts on silver ? Tonight and next week...
ReplyDeleteSo many thanks
Silver has been generally holding better than Gold today. I think Silver can decline some more next week, but it is holding for now.
DeleteGotta hand it to you SC, HVU is almost at $12. You called that one perfectly....not sure why you sold your TVIX.
ReplyDeleteAM, your posting of the COT chart was telling. Big Money buying protection......almost as if the sleeping Giant is now awake.....the reason the S&P hasn't tanked is the COT report confirmed that Commercial Institutions are not in the market right now, its small speculators that are buying into this market.
ReplyDeleteSo that is why the S&P hasn't tanked yet, big money isn't putting their money into the market, they are positioning to profit from a major drop.
TVIX likely to drop back to $18. Parabola's don't end well!
ReplyDeleteHi SC<
ReplyDeleteDo you think silver can still go to $ 31?
Thanks
I'm going to review Silver on the weekend. It has been hovering lately. Thanks.
DeleteHi SC
ReplyDeleteWondering your take on Monday action? you think we will gap up or down according to your cycle?
As well, if you expect tvix to go back to 18, curious to know why you didnt go long during that time?
Thanks!
My cycle analysis for the weekend and Monday morning looks positive. Most likely to see a positive open imo. After Monday morning it turns more negative next week.
DeleteWould you consider getting back into TVIX on Monday morning then?
DeleteThanks!
Yes, I think it'll come back down to test high $17 low $18, then retest the high at near $21.
Deletequick question, if you sold your TVIX @ 15.68, buying it back around high 17 or low 18, isnt that a bad trade? (assuming you buying the same lot sizes)
DeleteNo of course not. I turned a nice profit on that trade though it could have been much more.
DeleteI may reload higher, and the only thing that would matter is that it is sold higher from that point.
XIV would have been a good move at the top of the VIX parabola today.
DeleteI was going to buy XIV today near the high of VIX, but just dont like to hold it over the weekend...so much unknown...
Deletethis next chart update you mention coming, is it for VIX? tvix?
tvix
DeleteTVIX did reach the minimum $21 target for the week with a parabolic move. Exciting stuff!
ReplyDeleteI took profits way to soon, but I have some ideas for it next week. Chart coming...
Said on last Saturday update:
"A bullish wedge pattern appears complete for TVIX as of Friday, with a minimum of $21 to maximum of $23 targeted for next week."
HI SC
DeleteIm expecting Monday higher till about 2pm then DOWN into WED afternoon
Jay
SC do you see the high already in and are you still seeing 1290 next week on the spx?
ReplyDeleteInteresting day today Sami! I'm going to review everything carefully this weekend. It does look like a higher open Monday, then decline from there.
DeleteIf the market open higher, it doesnt mean TVIX will follow right?
DeleteIf it does follow, do you think max pain would be around low 17 at all? or you think max pain will be around high 17?
Thanks!
I'm going to be looking at the levels in great detail this weekend. Parabola's like this act predictably. There are going to be some great trades to be had next week imo.
DeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteMAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT + SENSEX + SHANGHAI
http://markethighsandlows.wordpress.com/
I think TVIX minimum target early next week is the upper BB with the 50dma a potential absolute upside. I am a seller from the high 24's.
ReplyDeleteCheers
Dear SC
ReplyDeleteLook at this"QQQ" Will be "$ 10" movie up someday(60-70/59-69), please add. this on your view and cycle analysis.
"http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2012/02/qqq-weekend-update.html"
wait for your work!Thank you so much!
According to my model, gold and silver are expected to decline sharply this week.
ReplyDeleteSC, you seek a drop to $ 31.5 for this week ? I think it is likely to happen.
Let's see
SC,
ReplyDeleteyou still expecting 17 dollar silver.??
We go to $38 next few weeks, and then stay tuned. I've been saving some charts for the appropriate time...
DeleteSC: i see the 38 dollars happening... I'm just wondering about your 18 dollar call...do you still see that happening...
ReplyDelete