Last week there was quite a significant surge up and reversal in Apple. The stock fell $40 off the high. However, the parabolic top is not yet complete. Mathematically these tops are predictable, and tend to finish stronger than what we saw last week with a spectacular phase and vertical finish.
Apple is correcting now, and is anticipated to decline further to test the red fork next at $480 or a little lower. The final parabolic top is targeted at $578 in early March.
Daily Chart
Apple closed red on Friday, and is already leading down, and this is a reason to be bearish for the coming week. SPX has been hovering at the midfork. As Apple corrects, SPX is due to at least test the orange trend line at 1324-1328 around February 27th.
Daily Chart
Despite the futures, I suspect that the market opens moderately lower tomorrow. Tues/Wed could be relatively quiet. I doubt SPX can advance much, if at all, from Friday.
ReplyDeleteStarting Thursday Feb 23rd, the cycle analysis is negative, and from the 23rd to the 27th looks probable for a significant selloff.
Copper has been struggling lately. This is another bearish indication.
ReplyDeleteOnce Apple tops look out, because while my initial downside target is $390, I don't see it stopping there either.
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteLook for 1353-1355 hold intra-day on tuesday then up to 1368-1375 by wed/ thursday.
Watch for intraday reversal on wed or thursday, then I agree we correct. First guess is 1333ish first stop.
Generally agree, moderate dip Tues morning, then rally back to Fri high perhaps a few points above Tues/Wed. Thurs selloff into the 27th.
DeleteAAPL 2003-2007 ~2800% gain ~4 years
ReplyDelete2009-2012 ~ 525% so far ~4 years
Oil is leading the way higher, just broke above 5 year resistance line... and iran has not done anything serious ..yet.
SC,
ReplyDeleteWhat about silver and gold? Are you buying silver or gold this week.
Thanks.
Gold and Silver have been correcting sideways without much of a dip. I still think they can dip initially so I will watch for that, but my analysis is still very bullish for both in coming weeks. So yes, dips are opportunities, and there is not much time left for them to dip.
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteLast friday's target was 1326................what is this friday's target?
SC you are saying "at least test the orange trend line at 1324-1328 around February 27th"
ReplyDeleteAre you no longer expecting 1280-1290 to close your SHORT position ?
Let's see how it looks on the 27th. If SPX is in that 1324-28 zone on that date, then I would close the short. Then, the plan would be to reshort a bounce for a decline to 1289-95 on the next decline. Both of these levels are important in my work.
ReplyDeleteso when are we dropping to 1040?
ReplyDeleteMarch is set to be very weak, the target is still the same. We do have a few whipsaws to complete first, and then plunge.
DeleteOnce Apple completes the parabola it'll collapse.
DeleteSC I'm not being unappreciative buddy, because I really do appreciate all your effort in posting your charts, however you said a month ago that February was going to be very weak and the indices have gone nowhere but UP.
DeleteI hope you are right, but I'll believe it when I see it.
Cheers
thanks......curious to see you play the tvix through the whipsaws. if this plays out like you are suggesting, then tvix/hvu can make us a bundle of coin
ReplyDeleteGDOW weekly..
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/7f36boq
thanks for the charts as always Zig
DeleteSC: what is your gold and silver targets... ? are you still expecting a collapse to 17 dollars for silver?
ReplyDeleteThe Silver target is $38 in a few weeks, Gold is $2,050. I do see that being a major top for Silver, and yes, at that point I'll turn into a Silver bear...
DeleteThe global financial system is rigged in favour of the banks.
ReplyDeleteGreece have been bailed yet again and for one reason only. Not to protect the people, TO SAVE THE BLOODY BANKS!
Also, you had mentioned your TVIX stop was $17.....however you haven't covered yet....so where are you placing your stop on TVIX?
ReplyDeleteThe plan is to see how this triangle plays out which is why I have given some room on a stop. Perhaps around $16.
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteLike I mentioned earlier DOW is closing on 13k....will try to test that level and then all fire works will start...IMO
Thanks
Good call Stockboom!
DeleteTook my loss on HVU at $10.45. Will look to rebuy at the end of the day, or tomorrow morning.
Deleteok, bought back at $10.40 because its showing resilience........feels like a push up for HVU is coming.
ReplyDeleteStrength is amazing
ReplyDeleteSPX just keeps on chugging higher. I just can't imagine who is actually buying at these levels.
ReplyDeleteI say we top when everyone gives up trying to call a top :)
If Dow reaches 13000, then they'll want to try to get the S&P to 1400. When does it end? At least TVIX is holding around 17 for now.
ReplyDeleteOk, dow hit 13000. Maybe we can have a little pull back now...??
DeleteThis is again most of traders are bears currently, so untill everyone becomes bulls ( and that is also from this level!) we can still goes higher...
ReplyDeleteLOL this is one heck of a rally.....no sign of ending soon....LOL
DOW hit 13K, someone mentioned now it's S & P turn to touch 1400....man where this will end?
Stockboom,
DeleteI don't agree that most traders are currently bears. It may be that you hear a lot of bearish comments on whichever blogs you frequent, but market-wide sentiment data is unusually bullish. Equity put-call ratios are at bullish extremes, as are Rydex bull-bear ratios and cash commitment levels, as is the Daily Sentiment Index...
when I said bearish; I really meant that many people are now expecting market correction that's all...
DeleteI know sentiment data must be touching historical high on bullish side...I haven't checked though.
Thanks
Interesting, but judging by the VIX futures which are even to positive, there appears to be a belief out there that short term protection is needed.
ReplyDeleteThe disturbing part is that SC's cycle/symmetry approach failed to retract the bear call and recognize/respect this super bull rally that we experienced. Yes he got the direction wrong originally, that happens - but failing to see and respect the trend for 2 months - this is just disturbing.
ReplyDeleteHow can we take timing/price targets seriously after this?
OEX
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/7w76xpf
nice. saving that one to disk.
DeleteCheck out this one when starting from the July 2010 low. I believe there's a full moon on April 6th too.
Deletehttp://tinyurl.com/87yg3lz
ive been reading sc blog since he called the s&p short from 1290. look at it now 80 points higher or 700+ on the dow talk about getting it wrong and then for him to only pick the next set of dates for it to be bearish. eventually it will turn bearish
ReplyDeleteno offence sc but ur losing ur creditability
HANG in there SC
ReplyDeleteOUR (bear) DAY WILL COME- and A LOT sooner than we think
+ energy at 12:21 allowed the mkt to top at NOON
NOW its 3;30pm @ 150bars & Neg Energy, but once passed that, there is still some residual POS energy to HOLD onto smaller gains- SEE THE EKG-
NEXT 2-3 days should bring in the herd for the bears
what do they call it when everyone wants out at the same time?
Thats right -- PANIC !!
Jaywiz
ps, CNBC commentators pushing $5 gas- OIL $125- DOW 13K -- whooppie -[g]
NONE want to talk anything but bullish
what does that tell you,??? Hmmmm-
My bigger picture pattern is bearish. However, I have also shown a number of short term bullish charts as the market sets up for this larger pattern. Many of these worked out well.
ReplyDeleteThis year, in real time, I have posted at least 11 trades with only 1 losing trade. I certainly don't have all the answers, all the time, to forecast time and price points, but I still have enough answers to turn profits.
hı sc.. whats your bıg pattern for sılver?
ReplyDeleteThe pattern for Silver has been accurate, and it is still bullish for a little longer, but then it will turn bearish.
Deleteatilla, came back with the bear call which he retracted in late 2011. interestingly his early post about ECB engaging in massive printing was mysteriously deleted by twitter, days after we had a massive rally begin.
ReplyDeleteWhere can I find this "atilla" blog that you mention?
DeleteSC, when you type word "CRASH" and people see a massive rally instead with you not retracting your original call .. well this sends wrong message.
ReplyDeleteFair enough, I can understand that, however, patience is required when looking at larger moves and large patterns.
ReplyDeleteEnough with the bickering
ReplyDeleteIt is what it is
But a beautiful cup and handle on tvix 5 min chart see if it break out
This is true... one thing I have learned over the past 2 years is that big moves take a lot longer to develop than my patience allows. These moves drag on for a loong time, so... to be fair... Everyone I know has jumped the gun on calling a top. This includes even bloggers, EW'ers, even newsletters like Wellington Report, Harry Dent, etc ... yes even Atilla. Like AM said, Atilla changed his tune not too long ago.
ReplyDeleteTo answer the previous question, Atilla used to run a blog called XTrends, he received his fame making a ton of money in the Financial crisis and he's now one of the permabears. He closed his blog and now only tweets once in a while... twitter.com/xtrends
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteSC
ReplyDeletefor silver, what does it mean "a little longer"? Will it be 37-38 still? it seems the first or second week of march.And after that,about a month it is bear market.
Yes, $38 is the target early March. Interesting that Gold/Silver looked quite strong today.
DeleteSc
DeleteDo you see a pull back tomorrow and Thursday on tvix or flat
I don't have much expectation for tomorrow. Another flat day would not be a surprise tomorrow. Thurs, Fri, Mon look weak in my cycle analysis of the market so expecting more selling pressure on those days.
DeleteSerious question
DeleteHow does temporary suspension of further issuance of tvix effect the price I have never experienced this before
Credit Suisse just did this to tvix at 5:34
At least 2 to 3 days tolerance you should consider, and dont expect blogers see the future for you 100% accurate. No body can do it in this manipulated market,if they could do it 100% Then they would be sooooo Rich now.. isnt it?SO, just I would say, use weblog as refrence and do your judgment and try NOT To Dump weblogger. he is doing this for Free and it is his opinion, so Owes no body, nothing.just my 2 cents. thanks SC anyway.
ReplyDeleteSC
ReplyDeleteI have question infact question to all anyone thinks that this rally is due to rrsp season? when is the dead line in usa for tax investment? canada it is end of february but usa has longer.
Just wondering...thanks
ZigZag,
ReplyDeleteany comments on this chart?
Tuesday the 17th could be a high/low marker.
I'm scratching my head.
http://i43.tinypic.com/34g3a4n.png
or maybe this one.
Deletethe day after OpX.
http://i40.tinypic.com/5fhwrt.png
Nice chart GG! The 23rd will likely be the next pause before another peak sometime in early May. The market should be making new highs by the Fall.
DeleteMay 8th should come from that last momentum high and I get alignment on the 23rd too. :-)
http://tinyurl.com/7pqx7fa