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Wednesday, August 10, 2011

$SPX - Big Bounce

The probability for a large bounce seems quite high now. 

30min Chart















I plan to show some more big picture charts soon. 

2day Chart
Posted by at

103 comments:

  1. ckoreyAugust 10, 2011 at 10:37 PM

    So no new lows by end of the week?

    ReplyDelete
  2. katzo7August 11, 2011 at 2:13 AM

    Megaphone.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/f56208d3-a024-4c74-aea4-a232dbd72cbc

    ReplyDelete
  3. katzo7August 11, 2011 at 3:19 AM

    EW analysis.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/dcacb8fa-54f2-4007-ba63-eab31e162c68

    ReplyDelete
  4. katzo7August 11, 2011 at 4:52 AM

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/fee0548a-11d6-41a6-9a2b-f29c1cdccf96

    ReplyDelete
  5. SantaAugust 11, 2011 at 6:50 AM

    Hi SC

    what you think today's action going to be like for S&P?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  6. SCAugust 11, 2011 at 6:57 AM

    Let's see how it shapes up today ckorey. I have a lot more to say about timelines with more detailed analysis coming.

    ReplyDelete
  7. SCAugust 11, 2011 at 7:05 AM

    Looks ok so far InvestBB, still quite choppy.

    ReplyDelete
  8. AnonymousAugust 11, 2011 at 7:16 AM

    My newsletter guy thinks 95% of selling is still ahead of us. Gives gold and other metals 2-3 more days and then down big time. Deflation across the board. We shall see. You can toss a coin at this point and be right. lol

    ReplyDelete
  9. ZBergAugust 11, 2011 at 7:20 AM

    SC

    Still looking at a weak Friday before a bounce next Mon/Tues?

    Thanks for all your work

    ReplyDelete
  10. MuzzAugust 11, 2011 at 8:03 AM

    Looking good at the moment SC, what is your target for today? what time frame are you looking at for this rally to peak? Are you looking at a lower low under 1100 on the next leg down before the big 1300+ rally. Thanks SC

    ReplyDelete
  11. SCAugust 11, 2011 at 8:38 AM

    Yesterday's setup worked well. I'm not sure if we see that much more today. In this mkt there are certain spots that have higher probability, and yesterday was one example.

    I may just lock in the profit, and watch for a while. Today/tomorrow are still mixed in my cycle work, Tues is the day that stands out the most to me as very positive.

    ReplyDelete
  12. MuzzAugust 11, 2011 at 8:57 AM

    SC let us know if you lock in the profits today.

    ReplyDelete
  13. fartninja33August 11, 2011 at 9:05 AM

    SC, considering you went long last week with the S&P above 1200, I am not sure how you can really have profits at this point. Even if you averaged down yesterday, you would be lucky to break even at best. Seems odd to me when you say you are considering locking in profits.

    ReplyDelete
  14. ZigZagAugust 11, 2011 at 9:15 AM

    Staying above SC's August 9-10 low here should get us to sometime around August 24th on the NDX.

    http://tinyurl.com/443g7qh

    ReplyDelete
  15. SantaAugust 11, 2011 at 9:23 AM

    Hi SC

    do you see today's silver and gold price as a sign of the plummet you talking about?

    good time to short?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  16. RowleyAugust 11, 2011 at 9:27 AM

    Profits?

    "SC said...Yes, I'm stepping in huge here long SPX.
    August 4, 2011 12:36 PM"

    It was at 1240. How are you taking a profit? There's nothing wrong about being wrong. It's a gamble right now, but to say that you're making a profit when you were buying heavy 100 above us doesn't make sense. Not even if you had averaged down at the absolute bottom. Good luck guys, make sure you do your due diligence. I'm out.

    ReplyDelete
  17. AnonymousAugust 11, 2011 at 9:30 AM

    LOL InvestBB are you serious dude?

    Your asking advice from someone who's been completely wrong thus far about the market specially silver...lol

    according to him Silver should plumet already....its rising higher and it will keep rising until S&P breaks the lower low. After that might be a good time....hmmm time frame probably say 1 week to 5 weeks.

    ReplyDelete
  18. godsdogAugust 11, 2011 at 9:43 AM

    man, talk about fair weather fans

    folks SC is doing his best and sharing publicly his views on the market, can't ask for more than that

    always do your own due diligence as its your account balance at stake

    fwiw, i feel gold is making an intermediate top
    and equities and intermediate bottom in this area glta

    ReplyDelete
  19. SCAugust 11, 2011 at 9:56 AM

    I sold from yesterday's late day entry. I did gain ground from yesterday. That is what I meant. That is correct, I do have more ground to catch up.

    There is going to be plenty of opportunity in this mkt, and rather than focus on what didn't work, I prefer to focus on the next trades. What else can one do?

    ReplyDelete
  20. SantaAugust 11, 2011 at 10:09 AM

    Hi SC

    Do you expect any weakness today with S&P going into the end of trade hour.

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  21. ZAugust 11, 2011 at 10:13 AM

    Took some profits today on longs just in case, have to stay nimble.

    ReplyDelete
  22. SantaAugust 11, 2011 at 10:16 AM

    i am out of long from yesterday purchase, into short for now, too much rise, think the market may die down during lunch.

    ReplyDelete
  23. SCAugust 11, 2011 at 10:22 AM

    I don't have a strong feeling either way for the rest of the day. Just prefer to wait and watch here.

    ReplyDelete
  24. SantaAugust 11, 2011 at 10:28 AM

    out of my short this morning with a small profit, same as SC wait and watch...

    ReplyDelete
  25. ZAugust 11, 2011 at 10:55 AM

    what are your guys' take on shorting TLT (aka buying TBT).

    ReplyDelete
  26. SantaAugust 11, 2011 at 11:19 AM

    In a little bit with short with S&P.

    ReplyDelete
  27. AlesundAugust 11, 2011 at 11:27 AM

    1inabluemoon:

    Can you tell me what newsletter you follow? If you don't want to post it here, you can e-mail me nealinnagoya (at) hotmail.com

    Thank you,

    A

    ReplyDelete
  28. RogerAugust 11, 2011 at 11:37 AM

    It seems the signal of SLV is leading SPX now.

    ReplyDelete
  29. SantaAugust 11, 2011 at 11:48 AM

    out of my little short, wait and watch till close.

    ReplyDelete
  30. srikanthAugust 11, 2011 at 11:59 AM

    SC,Do you think tomorrow will be a down day,Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  31. SCAugust 11, 2011 at 12:26 PM

    As improbable as it seems, I really wouldn't be surprised if the short squeeze continues tomorrow. I'm going to see how the open looks tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  32. fartninja33August 11, 2011 at 12:27 PM

    I was going to sell some of my SPX longs earlier in the day, because I was still down and just cut my losses. But, SC you posted that you were out of your longs, so I did the opposite and hung on until now. Sold 2/3 of my longs and now in the green with actual good profits. I can let the other 1/3 ride, and if it goes up fast, use a small short as a hedge.

    ReplyDelete
  33. SantaAugust 11, 2011 at 12:32 PM

    Hi SC

    wondering your take on silver tomorrow?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  34. SCAugust 11, 2011 at 12:34 PM

    Well if you like to do the opposite of me, then you would have shorted the close yesterday.

    Nobody can complain about my setup for today.

    ReplyDelete
  35. SantaAugust 11, 2011 at 12:42 PM

    Hi SC

    are you going to hold your S&P position long over night today?


    thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  36. fartninja33August 11, 2011 at 12:44 PM

    You have been completely wrong the last few weeks. You missed out on the huge drop the last few weeks and you missed out on most of the upwards move today. I held on because you said you were out today and I turned my loss into a profit. That's why I made a comment earlier in the day when you said that you were locking in profits. Sorry can't have profits if are actually down. Just interesting that you missed out on all the big moves so far. But enough said, let's make money as that is what trading the markets are all about.

    ReplyDelete
  37. fartninja33August 11, 2011 at 12:46 PM

    InvestBB,

    SC said he was out a few hours ago.

    ReplyDelete
  38. SqrootAugust 11, 2011 at 12:46 PM

    Sure got some real Ass-Holes on this site. Sorry SC has to put up with you bums. Why do you even come here. I'll tell you; to get the information SC freely provides. Your mothers would be ashamed of you. Do you tease the handicap too ? Pull the wings off pretty butterflys ? Kick puppies ? Just shut the F up!

    ReplyDelete
  39. srikanthAugust 11, 2011 at 1:05 PM

    Well said sqroot,Really appreciate your analysis SC.

    ReplyDelete
  40. ZigZagAugust 11, 2011 at 1:08 PM

    Congrats on the August 9-10 call SC! Ka-Ching! :-)

    ReplyDelete
  41. BobAugust 11, 2011 at 1:10 PM

    amen to that sqroot.

    SC, about time for a paid-subscription system; don't have to be much, just enough to keep the assholes at bay.

    ReplyDelete
  42. MuzzAugust 11, 2011 at 1:15 PM

    I agree Sqroot why do these people even bother coming on here if they don't like it. No one in the world can get things 100% right all the time. SC puts in allot of effort, give him a break dudes.

    ReplyDelete
  43. MuzzAugust 11, 2011 at 1:22 PM

    Thanks again for all your analysis SC, keep up the great work and let's make some great calls to show these assholes that you kick ass :)

    ReplyDelete
  44. SalAugust 11, 2011 at 2:07 PM

    When things are free we human tend to take it for granted (I.E.Sunshine, Oxygen in the air, perfect speed of earth rotation, gravity, balance atmospheric pressure on earth). SC send all unpleasant people love and charge them for your services. Recommend them to attend a class to understand the laws of probabilities - It helps to stay focused, respect and, appreciate scholastic work that you have been providing at no cost- I am obliged. Thank you SC.

    SAL

    ReplyDelete
  45. ZAugust 11, 2011 at 2:23 PM

    SC keep it up, let's not get distracted by folks who want to make life difficult for others. Thanks for your frequent updates and insight.

    ReplyDelete
  46. TheBlueMoonAugust 11, 2011 at 2:27 PM

    SC your forecast about 10 August was phenomenal!
    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  47. MoneymanAugust 11, 2011 at 3:32 PM

    Nice forecast SC about the weakness in stockmarket.

    The forecast about the weakness into 9-10 of august was awsome!

    ReplyDelete
  48. katzo7August 11, 2011 at 8:14 PM

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/2d27731b-4242-4b45-8be5-48e56fdecd5a

    ReplyDelete
  49. katzo7August 11, 2011 at 8:36 PM

    SPX/Month

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/7fdafcfa-f1ad-4eac-bea8-63b7917930b1

    ReplyDelete
  50. MuzzAugust 12, 2011 at 6:35 AM

    Hi SC are you looking at going long again here or will you wait for a possible pull back?

    ReplyDelete
  51. srikanthAugust 12, 2011 at 6:38 AM

    SC,Do you like the open?Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  52. phantomAugust 12, 2011 at 6:46 AM

    sc,
    when do u think is a good time to short gold /silver?

    thanks

    ReplyDelete
  53. MuzzAugust 12, 2011 at 8:42 AM

    Hi SC are you on line today ?

    ReplyDelete
  54. RogerAugust 12, 2011 at 9:25 AM

    SC. I really appreciate your work. And I hope you still could keep it up and share your view with us. People usually will not cherish the free stuff, instead some of them even like to blame the blogger in any loss occurred. So for all, if you are following SC analysis to invest, please read the disclaimer at the end of SC's blog. Cheer up, SC.

    ReplyDelete
  55. MuzzAugust 12, 2011 at 9:39 AM

    SC I concur with Roger and many others that appreciate and follow your work. The people that criticize are just not worth it. I and many others find your work very interesting and do not in anyway blame you or behave in a disrespectful manner. I as well as others appreciate your work and look forward to your analysis. Thanks again SC and please don't let those rude grubs get you down.

    ReplyDelete
  56. RogerAugust 12, 2011 at 9:54 AM

    Agree! I have been read SC work since his followers are about 20, look at that number is now 57. If you guys remember, there came a newsletter editor a while ago asking to publish SC's work because of the intact analysis. I'm the one that hope to keep SC's blog in a non-disclosure state because it will lead lots of attacker. I'm not sure if SC eventually accept that invitation or not. I see so many cases that a free blog been rudely attack and eventually lead to a shut down because of those free lunch taker. No one can always win in the stock, focus what you have and the current status as well as risk management. Cheers!

    ReplyDelete
  57. srikanthAugust 12, 2011 at 9:56 AM

    SC,I really appreciate your work,Please don't stop sharing your market views.

    ReplyDelete
  58. RogerAugust 12, 2011 at 10:21 AM

    Just in case, if you consider to shut down this site or turn it into a subscriber state. Please send me email to rogerspass at gmail.com, thanks SC.

    ReplyDelete
  59. AnonymousAugust 12, 2011 at 11:06 AM

    SC, thanks for the analysis. Are you planning anymore updates on silver/gold? Gold may have finally topped out. A long way to fall from here. Symmetry chart update would be great!
    Thanks for the blog again.

    ReplyDelete
  60. ckoreyAugust 12, 2011 at 12:28 PM

    Guys,

    I think SC has thicker skin than that to be bothered by a few clowns.

    Maybe he is just busy.

    I for one will give him the benefit of the doubt.

    Looking for a fade into the close.

    ReplyDelete
  61. SCAugust 12, 2011 at 12:38 PM

    A wild storm rolled through overnight, and took my internet connection with it. Finally up, but sporadic, and I don't have my instruments working.

    Mkt is holding, but Financials are down and that gives some concerns for Monday. Either they are taking a rest or leading down. Unfortunately I don't have everything working properly so not sufficient to take a position.

    ReplyDelete
  62. MuzzAugust 12, 2011 at 1:13 PM

    Hi SC, not good news about the storm but good to see you are back. Hopefully you can get all up and running over the weekend. Look forward to your updates of charts and analysis in the next couple of days. Have a good weekend SC, take care.

    ReplyDelete
  63. srikanthAugust 12, 2011 at 1:28 PM

    Hi SC,Hope everything is ok at your end,Good to see you are back.Looking forward to your next week's market analysis.Take care and have a great weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  64. katzo7August 14, 2011 at 12:15 AM

    SPX/Day.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/99093350-fe47-422a-9a1e-10ce110bf394

    And GLD/Week. When a parabolic shows up on the week, look out.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/84ddf172-eb23-4830-b9f8-e1079501a5dc

    ReplyDelete
  65. heavymetalsAugust 14, 2011 at 3:50 AM

    so katzo are you long SPX here?

    Thanks for a great blog SC, very impressed by the aug 10 call.

    ReplyDelete
  66. SCAugust 14, 2011 at 9:41 AM

    Back up and running smoothly again. Thanks for all the encouraging words! Emotions run high when the markets act as they have recently. The frustrations are understandable in many cases.

    There is always a choice in life to focus on the positives or on the negatives. This will become increasingly important to remember in coming years.

    Thanks again.

    ReplyDelete
  67. AnonymousAugust 14, 2011 at 11:46 AM

    AIN'T dat da truth!

    ReplyDelete
  68. ZAugust 14, 2011 at 2:05 PM

    SC, possible to elaborate on your point "this will become increasingly important to remember in coming years"? Thanks again for your work. Are you possibly referring to the "fourth turning"?

    ReplyDelete
  69. TimerAugust 14, 2011 at 3:45 PM

    http://timingsolution.net/index.php/en/component/k2/item/172-long-term-forecast-for-dow-jones-index-5/08/2011

    ReplyDelete
  70. AnonymousAugust 14, 2011 at 4:17 PM

    Mater cycle is down til 2013/14 and will take lows out!

    ReplyDelete
  71. SCAugust 14, 2011 at 9:33 PM

    Nuggy,

    The coming years look challenging economically so it will be increasingly important to look on the bright side. There always is a bright side no matter how gloomy things may appear.

    ReplyDelete
  72. The Count of Monte FistoAugust 15, 2011 at 8:18 AM

    SC,

    Any chance for a silver update today? I know you speculated that silver might stay strong until the 12th, so are you anticipating a reversal in the coming days?

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  73. SCAugust 15, 2011 at 8:31 AM

    Generally I have waiting for the Silver patterns to develop as it has been relatively quiet. I'm due to review, and will do that.

    ReplyDelete
  74. SantaAugust 15, 2011 at 8:45 AM

    Hi SC

    wondering what your take on S&P today? went like 20 point up and now back to 10 point ish up. Think it may go back higher soon?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  75. srikanthAugust 15, 2011 at 8:46 AM

    Hi SC,Do you still think tuesday will be super bullish?Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  76. SCAugust 15, 2011 at 9:04 AM

    Tuesday is the most positive day in my cycle work. In practise it may not line up perfectly on that day. I figured I would see how other indications line up later today.

    Tested 1200 which was a natural resistance spot.

    ReplyDelete
  77. AnonymousAugust 15, 2011 at 9:14 AM

    Looking for the SP cycle to close dowb for the day......key reversal bar!

    ReplyDelete
  78. SantaAugust 15, 2011 at 10:38 AM

    Hi SC

    wondering your thought on the close of S&P today? Do you plan to hold overnight if you have position in S&P right now for long?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  79. SCAugust 15, 2011 at 10:44 AM

    I'm watching and waiting for now. Not much action out there today. I'll wait and see how things shape up near the close and decide from there.

    ReplyDelete
  80. SantaAugust 15, 2011 at 11:21 AM

    so close to 1200 for s&p...

    ReplyDelete
  81. SantaAugust 15, 2011 at 11:27 AM

    just passed 1200 for abit...with tomorrow's earning, this may go higher tomorrow?

    ReplyDelete
  82. RogerAugust 15, 2011 at 11:37 AM

    SLV seems follow with SPX today?

    ReplyDelete
  83. SCAugust 15, 2011 at 12:04 PM

    One fact that makes me a little leery of the rally at this point is that the financials (Rifin) topped out first thing Friday morning, and have not surpassed that level today. S&P has pushed higher today.

    It may not be an issue, but it does have me leaning on the conservative side.

    ReplyDelete
  84. PKAugust 15, 2011 at 12:12 PM

    Financials (IMO) are only relevant with regards to the big picture. Their "garbage rally" from the 2009 lows is evidence of how sick this sector really is. Indeed, shorter term they do act as leaders from time-to-time but I don't view them as a "necessary" block for the rally to continue or fail.

    ReplyDelete
  85. SantaAugust 15, 2011 at 12:20 PM

    I am more leary of the fact that S&P been going up for a couple days now with out much of retracement happening with no news at all...feels like any news will either plunge it again or raise the bar again.

    SC, can you let me know what you mean by being on the conservative side, are you still averaging down your long position, but just slowly? Or just not doing any averaging at the moment?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  86. SCAugust 15, 2011 at 12:30 PM

    I'm just waiting for some action and further development. We've already seen a nice bounce, and the last few days have been slow.

    ReplyDelete
  87. MuzzAugust 15, 2011 at 12:34 PM

    Hi SC hope all is well after the storm last week. I went long on SPX as well last week and took profits too early on this bounce. What sort of action do you see developing? I thought we may see a pull back to around 1260 before this resumed its upward push to 1250-1280 area. Then down again to test lows before shooting up again. Will you be updating your SPX charts shortly?
    Thanks SC

    ReplyDelete
  88. SantaAugust 15, 2011 at 12:39 PM

    Hi Muzz

    you mean 1160 instead of 1260 right?

    ReplyDelete
  89. MuzzAugust 15, 2011 at 12:43 PM

    Yes sorry about that, 1160 it should say :)

    ReplyDelete
  90. SantaAugust 15, 2011 at 12:50 PM

    doesnt look like much different between now and end of market...SC are you planning on doing any purchase of long S&P today? only 10 mins left

    ReplyDelete
  91. SCAugust 15, 2011 at 12:58 PM

    I will wait for the morning and take it from there. Yes, will have charts coming soon.

    ReplyDelete
  92. SantaAugust 15, 2011 at 1:09 PM

    Hi SC

    thank you and looking forward to your charts and analysis soon.

    have a good day.


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  93. TomAugust 15, 2011 at 11:46 PM

    This rally is by no means over. Today was a major accumulation day, and such days never mark the tops of a rally. I am expecting some pullback before the rally resumes however, to suck in the unwitting bears. I'm hoping we can see 1300 again, but 1250-1260 looks more probable.

    ReplyDelete
  94. AnonymousAugust 16, 2011 at 3:22 AM

    I felt price would set back Monday but rather has carried into the night session to do so........the cycle as I mentioned is down until the 25th!

    ReplyDelete
  95. SantaAugust 16, 2011 at 7:26 AM

    Hi SC

    what your take on the event today with S&P and silver price?

    cannot believe silver have not drop yet and still rising, still ponder the plunge you forecasted long ago. looking for insight.


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  96. AnonymousAugust 16, 2011 at 7:58 AM

    The date window for the cycle top is the 17th............so this becomes the time to watch into it + or -.............

    ReplyDelete
  97. SCAugust 16, 2011 at 8:22 AM

    I see it basically that way as well. Mid this week looks most positive tapering off into the weekend but still positive. Next week looks quite negative again.

    Silver has just slowly been grinding up. I'm overdue for some updated charts, those will be coming soon.

    ReplyDelete
  98. AnonymousAugust 16, 2011 at 9:01 AM

    To sum it up I have a cycle top the 17th and pressure down into the 26th! Good trading!

    ReplyDelete
  99. SantaAugust 16, 2011 at 10:40 AM

    Doesnt look like the market liking the EU news, s&p dropping 18 points, curious is this a good buying long opp or a shorting opp SC?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  100. SCAugust 16, 2011 at 10:55 AM

    Nothing too compelling in either direction - sideways trade for 3 days now. A waiting game...

    ReplyDelete
  101. SantaAugust 16, 2011 at 12:32 PM

    Hi SC

    going into next week with negative outlook, is it safe to assume that silver will go towards your target of $43 next week then?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  102. SCAugust 16, 2011 at 12:47 PM

    The timing for Silver is tricky since it moves with the mkt sometimes and inverse others. Gold lately is more consistantly inverse.

    There are patterns that I am watching for both Gold and Silver. They are getting closer imo, and waiting patiently for them.

    ReplyDelete
  103. MuzzAugust 16, 2011 at 9:07 PM

    Hi SC what is your take on SPX action currently? I have been standing aside waiting for some direction at the moment, are you looking at taking any positions. Looking forward to some chart updates and analysis. Thanks SC

    ReplyDelete

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