On this chart I show a comparison to the Financials index (Rifin in yellow). The Financials have been weak over the last few trading sessions, and were also underperforming today. The broader market can rally without Financials, but that is not a rally (or turning point) I can trust for a long period of time. What it may simply indicate at a minimum is more back and fill action to come later in the week.
Many of the major banks bottomed on August 8th whereas SPX bottomed on August 9th. In the last several days many banks for example BAC, C, JPM, GS, MS etc... have traded under the August 8th lows, and are still trading at or near those levels. This will be monitored closely.
10min Chart
Hi
ReplyDeleteIf you take a look at the daily chart on XLF for example - I believe that it made a perfect bear trap below 12$ to trap bears before setting up a big rally.
You see that daily chart we have a clear bullish MACD divergence with the "lower low" as you say... and that is extreme bullish to me that this may be a big bottom forming.....
XLF at 12$ is also some huge monthly support which should be holding so I guess that banks are maybe the best buys here for swing ,, so time will tell me if Im wrong.
Im still long markets since 1110-1120 and been holding since 9th-10th august , and I think we could see a nice rally at least into Jackson Hole before next leg down or pullback.
The most bullish days in my book is the next days.
I'm also thinking along similar lines Sqwii. It's just that the banks don't seem particularly ready to rally. It just may indicate a little more time required.
ReplyDeleteLet's see how they perform today, and tomorrow.
I posted this yesterday in regards to my swing trade in Gold............TARGET just hit!
ReplyDelete"Looking to take swing shorts out once todays lows are taken out in the area of 1780 DEC contract"
Out of all longs in ES.......looking for sharp correction today!
ReplyDeletenicely done gabe!
ReplyDeleteNice job Gabe on the Gold trade! Metals really starting to gyrate around along with everything else.
ReplyDeleteThe key in this mkt is to filter out what is real and what is noise. There is a lot of noise.
The banks did have a better open today, but that is only the first show of strength that I have seen.
Also agree, today/tomorrow mkts are at risk of a hard dip. That may be the final capitulation.
Hi SC Gold has been killed today, amazing sell off the last 2 days. Gold should start to turn up soon to test highs and higher before it's all over. SPX should start to drop to the 1080-1100 before bigger push up to 1220-1240 area. What's your thoughts SC and other followers?
ReplyDeleteGabe is that out of longs on SPX? Have you gone short on SPX, I am also looking for drop?
ReplyDeleteBLAKE/SC
ReplyDeleteTHANKS for the kind words!
MUZZ
I trade the ES (EMINI'S/SP) and TNA with them! ES signals same for SPX/SPY/TNA etc.
I am short in day trade ES! ONLY LOOKING TO SHORT TODAY IN ES!
Thanks Gabe, I enjoy your posts as well good to have you on board :)
ReplyDeletemy thoughts on the US markets
ReplyDeletehttp://timecycles-timer.blogspot.com/2011/08/24-aug-thoughts.html
Took my AKA name from GABE! LOL
ReplyDeletehttp://gaberocks.com/
Thanks Timer. Would you assume the action of gold and silver will be the inverse of your projection about US markets?
ReplyDeleteDOW............
ReplyDeleteGann's master cycle and mass pressure shows this market doen into OCT in a very steep move also!
ES DEC...........
ReplyDeletePrice hit my upper range for today and failed at 1167.75......high was 1168! Short as stated, moving to break even! joed
I went long silver and short oil. Set ups look good to me.
ReplyDeleteOBAMA
ReplyDeleteObama, speaking to Tom Brokaw on NBC’s 'Meet the Press':
when you think about the structural problems
that we already had in the economy before the financial crisis,
this is a big problem, and it's going to get worse
BERNANKE
Chairman Ben Bernanke telling us that
the economic outlook remains "unusually uncertain,"
"At the rate we're going,
it could be four, five years before we are back to a more normal unemployment rate."
GEITHNER
tells NBC television's "Meet the Press"
that it's a very tough economy. for a lot of people
"it's going to feel very hard,
harder than anything they've experienced in their lifetime now,
for a long time to come."
gold and silver look done to me, expecting much lower prices from here
ReplyDeletea hardcore test of the conviction of gold bulls over the medium term
I see a 1-2 day bounce for gold and silver...then much lower prices for silver, not sure about gold targets though
ReplyDeleteIf TIMER and my master cycle are correct.......GOLD ain't seen nothing yet! It has been running opposite and will reach $3000 before it is over.........at that, the Gold/Silver ratio would then put silver at $80! IMHO
ReplyDeleteGabe, you are talking for very long term with those targets, correct? Maybe next year sometime?
ReplyDeleteBLAKE..........
ReplyDeleteMy DOW master cycle goes down into OCT........I will take it one step at a time, vut that is a another 1X1 leg down which puts GOLD in another rally.......you can measure what Gold did against this move down and estimate what it will do with another DOW leg down!
Bought some GG at 48.30!
My estimate is GOLD will be at 2300 and SILVER at $60 by OCT!!
ReplyDeleteGabe,
ReplyDeleteThen you think we are likely near the final bottom for gold and silver here? I was expecting another push lower, maybe to 33 or so for silver. But First I think it needs to bounce a bit to releive the oversold conditions
blake
ReplyDeleteYes I believe we are close enough to probe with close intra day stops........my profit coming down was large so I can afford small bets as probes before the all in play! I am trading GG for this........ I trade much like Gann did.....I will stalk and probe time! joed
Hi Gabe
ReplyDeleteAre you planning to hold the S&P shorts overnight or are you closing them by end of day today. Do you have a lower limit for the S&P for the next two days.
Great call on gold by the way.
Thx
fivir
ReplyDeleteI already got out of the ES shorts and just shorted again......trading this off 3 min chart......if it breaks sharply then I will trail stops and watch at end of day! Object is profit with the eye on a failure!
Stopped out last short ES...........looks like cycle top will run over in time......watching 1182 to 1187 area DEC for tomorrow..Good trading!
ReplyDeleteSC are u still looking for lower S&P or we gunnin for new highs now?
ReplyDeleteI am thinking about adding to my oil short here....looks very weak
ReplyDeleteMost likely, I think there is one more serious drop and shakeout coming either tomorrow or Friday. After that the surprises are coming on the upside imo.
ReplyDeleteNDX, RUT, and the Financials all were slightly weaker late in the day today.
Compared to SPX I should say.
ReplyDeleteSC .... banks up another 2.7% ... XLF ... good enough ;-) ???
ReplyDeleteBought it 11.8 yesterday as I saw this divergence.... pretty much always gives a good run at least for the short term....
Have a topping date in markets on Friday.... so lets see what happends into Benny meeting ;-) I would really love to see some big short covering ..
Banks did pick up the pace today, but no I still wasn't impressed. I just consider it the first glimpse of strength.
ReplyDeleteThe mkts are working their way into a bullish configuration from what I see, but I still see it being a little early.
This is a very critical juncture in the markets we have been discussing......once the markets speak large profits are on the line!
ReplyDeleteGold selloff came on a conjunction of Gann cycles,not least a 7 day and 7 week death zone blowoff.I too am looking for $3000 at some stage but not clear on timing
ReplyDeletehttp://chartramblings.blogspot.com/2011/08/gold-death-zone-rally.html
would like to see a flush out blow 135 to square the 6 month range
ReplyDeletehttp://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZNpzUyghx0w/TlYrOdVhFPI/AAAAAAAAGf8/A92fPmQDzR0/s1600/barc.jpg
As posted yesterday price came into my window......
ReplyDelete"watching 1182 to 1187 area DEC for tomorrow.."
Hi Gabe..
ReplyDeletegood call again.. I bought some shorts at that window, do you have any targets for today?
Thx
The mkt popped at open but as I pointed out yesterday, the leaders were all weakening.
ReplyDeleteTwo patterns I am watching both suggest that the mkt is setting up to drop hard short term. SPX may have topped although it may test near the high again today.
The plunge would be either today or tomorrow. Tomorrow may be more likely around the FED especially is today is sideways trading. It might be quite serious - 100 points or more.
dollar looks like it is finally breaking out. I don't know how this market is going to rally significantly if the dollar is going to put in a multimonth bounce here as I expect it to
ReplyDeletefivir
ReplyDeleteMy LOWER range for today is 1143 DEC ES.....price has bounced off my mid range! If price fails and falls through 1143, I expect an acceleration......I also bought GG(ETF) on open with trailing stops now..........good trading! joed
fivir
ReplyDeleteROCK AND ROLL!!!!! lol
ES DEC
ReplyDeleteJust took profit on morning shorts!
thx SC and gabe.. great calls as usual
ReplyDeleteSC you are an artist.
ReplyDelete