Notice also that the Financials are still higher than the July 18th bottom. This becomes important later on, and I plan to expand on this topic at a later date.
10min Chart
GDX (Gold Miners) were leading up in July, but have weakened dramatically over the last few days. This suggests a top may be in, or near for Gold. I have some larger time frame charts coming for Gold soon.
15min Chart
Thanks SC for the analysis. So do you still think we will get a brief bounce on SPX up to the 1320 area before we start to head down again?
ReplyDeleteThanks
It does appear likely that we see a multi-day bounce soon. I'm looking at potential targets for that now.
ReplyDeleteNo matter how it bounces though, I still see a selloff into Aug 10th +/-.
I agree SC it will only be a brief bounce and it does appear the sell off will continue after that.
ReplyDeleteThanks SC
Still looking wobbly, may be heading for the 1260's.
ReplyDeleteSC. Is this a diving before a brief bounce? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteThe signs are mounting that a bottom is nearing. I suspect bottom in the 1260's and bounce to 1300 area.
ReplyDeleteSC - Gold is rising more than Silver. What does this indicate?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Atul
Atul, it means my Gold short is losing more money than my Silver short!
ReplyDeleteJolly, A-Men, same boat, both is losing money, and gold is losing more than Silver. Cant wait till the sky clears and people realize we cannot eat gold and silver just like paper fiat lol
ReplyDeleteThanks InvestBB
ReplyDeleteI don't get it.. when everyone assumed the default wasnt going to happen the markets rallied, then it looked like it might happen, the markets dropped..
Now its the default is all but confirmed to not happen, drops further...
Gold should be running on fumes. Miners have been weak for a while now. I suspect Gold may start to fall first with Silver afterwards. This would be the opposite of April.
ReplyDeletehow are you guys shorting, via SLV/GLD puts? Whats your exit plan if silver/gold shoot higher?
ReplyDeletewish i was a bit more short...this is quite a downdraft
ReplyDeleteCovered the rest of S&P shorts here. Looks like it might have a little bounce, but I want to sit on the sidelines until there is clear direction.
ReplyDeleteWent long SPX with a large position. May bounce to 1300 next.
ReplyDeleteHi SC
ReplyDeleteIs this flash quick bounce for SPX you are looking for today? and a quick drop right afterward?
Thanks!
I think it may bounce there over a couple days, but I still see weakness into Aug 10th. So yes, I think it comes down again to test near this current level or go lower.
ReplyDeletethanks, wondering what your take on the current market with silver and SPX? the debt ceiling is basically passed except for signing. why the drop still in the market today?
ReplyDeleteWell I expect downward pressure overall until Aug 10th because of the cycles. We can still see a sharp bounce though during this period.
ReplyDeleteIn terms of the news there just seems to be general concern about the economy, double dip fears, euro debt, downgrade etc...
I really don't see PM's plunging right now. People are using them as a safe haven and I don't think that's going to change in the next month. South Korea, who hasn't bought any gold since 1998, just announced they bought 25 tons of gold. Other countries sure to follow. Although, as a spec, I have some SLV puts, but my gut tells me I should be buying calls and that it's going to be a losing trade. We'll see.
ReplyDeleteRowley, my guts tell me the same, with the debt ceiling issue in the pass, the market has no positive reaction at all, dont really see what else is going to drive Silver price down. Maybe Europe goes bankrupt tomorrow and the dollar rise base on that fact, still trying to figure out how SC is predicting this $18 silver price to happen. Cause if Europe goes bankrupt, wont they buy more Gold and silver for safe haven. And I don’t see any bright future for US at all given the fact that they almost default.
ReplyDeleteShould have waited to cover my SPX shorts at the end of the day.
ReplyDeleteDidn't see that end of day sell off coming. Closed out 50% of my puts today. Was tempted to do the rest at close, but I think there's still more coming. Regardless, tomorrow, up or down, closing out the rest of put position.
ReplyDeleteLooking @ SPX chart, man it looks pretty bearish for sometime in the near future. Dont see a reason to cover my short till some major news coming to the surface. Looking at last year SPX chart, August to September, the line went pretty straight down till the beginning of September. Maybe pattern will repeat itself
ReplyDeleteAre we about to get a repeat of '08?
ReplyDeletePeople are realizing that there are problems with the economy, and there doesn't seem to be an easy way out. They are right, but the timing is not right.
ReplyDeleteThis is the problem for the PM's, and also why it is a mistake imo to be overly bearish on the mkts right now.
SC, i agree. There is and always was every reason to be bullish on PM's since they started printing unbacked paper. Nothing has changed, just the reality starts showing its face. At the same time during this period we have had god knows how many corrections/sell offs/crashes in PM complex. Fundamentals /Cycles/ Emotions there are so many factors in play.
ReplyDeleteIn 2008 when the market was falling, PMs also went with it. The S&P has dropped almost 100 points in just over a week and gold made a new high today. I have a hard time seeing silver back to $30, let alone close to $20. I personally would love to see PMs have a huge drop so I can go big on the long side. Silver is still a thinly traded market in comparison to gold and other markets, so stops and margin calls can be triggered. I know the really big players would like to load up on PMs at much lower prices...but what will reverse the current uptrend and result in a big drop?
ReplyDeleteGold had many corrections during 80's, 10-20-30%. All we had this year is january and 6.5% in may. There are many more and bigger corrections to come in this PM run.
ReplyDeleteThe PM's have momentum going for them, and the enemy of momentum is time.
ReplyDeleteOne thing that will stop the PM's is a rip roaring rally in the mkts followed by a prolonged period of sideways trade.
I have been saving some charts for a while now. Time to bring them out....
Ok.....
ReplyDeleteSC. Is today's SPX action still in your scope? It closed at today's lowest 1254. Do you still expect a little bounce to likely 1300 as you mentioned? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteI'd say a bounce back to 1300 now would be a pretty big deal. Thats about 500 DJIA points.- SPX 1250 is a big deal. A real line in the sand.
ReplyDelete