$Rifin (Financials) also traded down to the red line support level today as shown in a previous chart. This should provide some support on a short term basis.
We should see a short term bounce next, and then much larger declines to follow. Further time cycle patterns and target levels will be posted shortly.
Daily Chart
Ben Bernanke's worst nightmare - Time Cycles...
ReplyDeleteThis is just a minor timing cycle - wait until we get into the larger cycles. The downward force is unstoppable.
Silver starting to see that little bounce, too early to short yet. Soon...
ReplyDeleteThat means the lows for Silver are in the first week of June imo $27.
Financials are still very weak this morning. Watching them closely.
ReplyDeleteFinancials held at support, and I think we are back into sideways choppy trade now for a number of days.
ReplyDeleteSC, by first week of June do you mean next week just after Memorial Day?
ReplyDeleteToday big move for commodities, dollar weaker, however stocks not only did not follow through, but soon closing on the weak side - fairly strange given usual correlation in a risk-on environment.
P.S FYI: Was not possible to post throughout the day. I assume not your fault SC, rather Google Blogger not working properly, as it's often the case...
Is today's high a good point to short? If so, $27 is then a big drop...
ReplyDeleteSC, you still see choppy days ahead even after today's bearish close? You see little to no chance of a drop into the 1290's from here? SPX relative strength to other risky assets today was awful. Either correlation is breaking down or, much more likely, tomorrow something will have to give...
ReplyDeleteThanks GL, Yes, I think Silver bottoms next week around $27. It can see weakness later this week.
ReplyDeleteRoger, Silver getting close now. I have not shorted it yet, but I will soon. Tiny upside for Silver here. Plenty of downside from today's close - I agree. Short Silver is a great trade over this next week imo.
Financials have bottomed, and actually are a buy at these levels now. So SPX might have some limited downside, but I see more of a sideways to grind up trade this week (and a lot of chop). Next week though SPX declines further - I like a bottom June 6-7.
SC, Would you elaborate the downside of silver from today's close as you mentioned? I just found this about Goldman turns bull on commodities.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-24/euro-weakens-for-third-day-asian-exporter-stocks-fall-amid-debt-concerns.html
Looks risky to short silver at this moment though.
I'll update on Silver. I'm very pleased with how things are playing out. I've been expecting today's bounce, looking forward to shorting it.
ReplyDeleteGoldman is just looking to offload their commodity holdings...
Thanks, SC. This is what I guess the trick that Goldman trying to play as usual. Looking forward your analysis. I probably did too fast today, I short just a little at today's highest though...
ReplyDeleteSilver closed this week at $38. Still looking for a target of $27 in a week? That would be a 29% move down.
ReplyDelete"That's a big twinkie."
Yes, large move down coming soon for Silver. Near perfect patterns so I am convinced.
ReplyDelete