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Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Silver - Updated

A potentially very bullish pattern for Silver (short term) remains intact.  Point 6 needed some extra time to develop.  I'll have additional charts coming tomorrow for Silver including an intermediate term view.

I have mentioned recently that many time cycles are converging around May 20th.  It has been debatable whether that is a bottom or top.  Perhaps it is more indicative of a period of volatility as this Silver chart suggests.

30min Chart
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7 comments:

  1. alexnewbeeMay 19, 2011 at 6:57 AM

    I found another similar chart http://www.taprofessional.de/ausgaben/Crash-von-1929.htm#grafik03

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  2. SCMay 19, 2011 at 7:34 AM

    Thanks Alex, I like that! Nice match with Silver from a technical basis, compares well with the scenario I have drawn out above, and also shows what I expect next.

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  3. SCMay 19, 2011 at 9:15 AM

    BTW I don't expect Silver to move up this fast. I would be shocked if it did. Mainly it's the shape of the moves that I wanted to convey.

    I'm going to look closer at the timing cycles for Silver and makes some timing estimates for this move.

    Also, while Silver puts in a lower high, it seems to me that Gold might make a slight higher high at the same time.

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  4. SCMay 19, 2011 at 9:58 AM

    For SPX I think we see a high tomorrow or first thing Monday, then a significant decline Monday/Tues. Monday morning may be a nice spot to look for a short.

    Generally, we're seeing a lot of noisy chop.

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  5. BlakeMay 19, 2011 at 10:11 AM

    being long silver and short the market seems contradictory. Silver is such a risk trade at this point that i have a hard time imagining it climbing while the market gets hit hard.

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  6. SCMay 19, 2011 at 10:40 AM

    Lately the mkt is just shuffling sideways overall. I think the mkt can decline early next week, but that is just a short term play. The Silver trade would take weeks to complete. Yes, there will be chop in Silver as well.

    In April, Silver performed much better than SPX. So while Silver looks attractive, I don't think that translates to a large move up for SPX.

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  7. alexnewbeeMay 19, 2011 at 11:23 AM

    if similarities to dow 1929 continue, silver will keep on sliding towards 4 $ or smth.. At this point I would short gold/buy silver with overweight to gold.. just MHO.

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