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Monday, May 16, 2011

$SPX - 30min Chart

The triangle "looked" as if it had broken down in the last few minutes of trading.  However, price is hovering at the pink line once again.  In the past this line has been an important dividing line marking the start of substantial rallies and declines.

As well, of note, the triangle apex is pointing to May 20th. 

30min Chart
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15 comments:

  1. alexnewbeeMay 16, 2011 at 11:20 PM

    looks to me like a bull flag, target would be ard. 1420.

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  2. SCMay 17, 2011 at 7:26 AM

    We did breach the pink line, but are trading back slightly above it now.

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  3. ThaiHawaiiMay 17, 2011 at 8:03 AM

    Be careful of any bullish expectations here. We are below the PINK line. If the DOW breaks below 12451 here, it could be a downer.

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  4. BlakeMay 17, 2011 at 11:54 AM

    SC- do you think your silver trade is broken now?

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  5. SCMay 17, 2011 at 12:16 PM

    I'm still in the silver trade. I figure since potentially it has big upside I would give it some room to work. The May 12 low has held so far and while silver has been floundering a bit, the pattern I have is still intact.

    Anything you see that is interesting for silver?

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  6. BlakeMay 17, 2011 at 12:22 PM

    no, not really. I expected we would cross above the $40 line once more prior to any further significant downside. I do think that we will get into high 20's before it is done falling, i just don't know if it goes higher first.

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  7. SCMay 17, 2011 at 12:36 PM

    Ok thanks. I tend to agree. The odds seem better that it goes higher first, and the risk/reward seems decent. I'll give it a little more time.

    Meanwhile SPX still hovering around the pink trendline....

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  8. BlakeMay 17, 2011 at 6:44 PM

    SC- please post your intermediate silver chart if you have time...I expect a bounce to 40 or a bit higher, then a move down to around 26 in several weeks time.

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  9. SpudthorpeMay 17, 2011 at 7:56 PM

    Silver just clearly broke above the trendline (red in the attached chart) that has capped rallies during the decline so far. It's overbought on the hourly so it may want to retest the red line but this is a good starting point for the rally you are expecting. http://screencast.com/t/MWwMABAK

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  10. SpudthorpeMay 17, 2011 at 8:01 PM

    Also ES has broken above that falling wedge (red) - will it just kiss the broken green support line, or rally hard? http://screencast.com/t/9lhUBhe8WM

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  11. SCMay 17, 2011 at 9:51 PM

    Thanks guys. Let's see how things develop in the morning. I'll have more Silver charts out tomorrow.

    I noticed that Rifin made a double bottom today with yesterday. SPX pushed lower so the financials were firmer and hinting at some sort of rally. Financials have been pathetic lately overall though.

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  12. The HookMay 18, 2011 at 8:49 AM

    The tip of your triangle SC....that gonna be a high or a low? Originally I thought you thought it would be a high.

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  13. The HookMay 18, 2011 at 9:16 AM

    A low rather.

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  14. SCMay 18, 2011 at 10:15 AM

    Hard to say for sure just yet. There are a few patterns that I am watching.

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  15. SpudthorpeMay 18, 2011 at 10:29 AM

    ES has reached, but not yet broken up through, the support line that it fell through a few days ago. It's also overbought on the hourly. As long as it remains below that line (green line in the chart I posted above) a sharp fall remains a possibility. Once it regains that line and retests it a few times, we are probably looking at a further rally.

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