$VIX - Update

The VIX chart originally shown on March 29th worked well for April.  Currently, there is high potential for a large spike up in the VIX.  Complacency is high.    

Daily Chart

$SPX - Waterfall Decline Coming to 1326

The high for 2012 is already in place at 1422 SPX.  The bear market has already begun.  A lower high is near. 
Next a waterfall decline to approximately 1326 SPX is imminent.  The timing to hit the waterfall low is early May.

2hour Chart

$VIX - Ready for Final Spike

VIX has consolidated for several weeks and has completed a bull flag pattern.  A final spike is imminent to take the VIX up into the target zone.  May 1st is a target date.

It is important to remember that spikes in VIX are characteristic of SPX bottoms.

Daily Chart



UVXY can spike over 3-4 days up into the target zone approximately $18.75.  It should plunge severely after the spike occurs.

30min Chart

$SPX - Minimal Downside Still Possible

A double bottom with April 10th was suggested as a minimum target.  That level was reached today.  There is support at that level, as shown previously, therefore it bounced.  Yet price could still drift just underneath in coming days. 

15min Chart

$SPX - Pop and Drop

The turquoise fork resistance was tested hard last week.  SPX should have the strength to push higher now and reach into the target zone above.

A number of cycle methods indicate weakness is coming though.  At least a double bottom near the low of April 10th is favoured later in the week.  Even a little lower roughly around 1350 looks possible.

15min Chart

$SPX - Short Term Update

The turquoise fork line proved to be strong resistance, and price slumped after testing it a few times.  However, the bear flag support held at the close.  As well the VIX didn't move much and actually closed down on the day.

15min Chart

$SPX - Big Bounce Update

SPX rocketed higher, and today reached the turquoise target exactly.  However, the timing of events suggests that the market still has higher to go.  The red fork line is an appropriate target on this big bounce. 

There is support at the orange midfork so even if it dips a little, the rally should extend up to reach the red fork target in coming days.

A bear flag is forming as represented with the white lines.

15min Chart

 

Silver - About to Become Volatile

Silver should bounce strongly early this week to near $34 for the Silver futures.  However, Silver should then plunge along with SPX afterwards.  A final low target is approximately $30 for the Silver futures. 

In terms of timing that low may occur at the soonest April 19-20th, and the low should be in place no later than April 23rd. 

60min Chart

$SPX - Big Bounce Monday

SPX is poised to rocket higher Monday morning as it launches up and out of the triangle.  The minimum upside should be in the area of the green oval, but not higher than the red fork line.

A top on Monday or Tuesday (more likely) is to be followed by a steady plunge down to the maximum downside target at 1342 give or take.  April 23rd is the date indicated by the triangle apex for an important bottom.  There are other timing methods that I am using suggesting this date as well.

Interesting geometry lines up at the green arrow - it is a promising indication that the configuration is correct as this volatile April continues.

15min Chart

$SPX - Plunge Next Week

The VIX is settling as expected and likely will settle more tomorrow.  Next week, the VIX will be ready to spike again.  SPX may have minor upside later in the day tomorrow, but it is set to plunge again next week.

The minimum target is shown for next week.  However, SPX could drop all the way to the maximum target potentially.     

30min Chart

UVXY is likely to head down to test the red support after an early morning bounce tomorrow.  It will then be set to test the upside target outlined next week. 

TVIX is still not trading properly, and next week will present a spot to recoup for those with losses.  There is plenty of opportunity in these markets to recoup and regroup!  

Daily Chart

$VIX - Volatile April Update

The VIX spiked and has nearly reached the target outlined previously.  After settling down first, it'll surge higher again next week.

Daily Chart

$SPX - Approaching Target Zone

SPX 1366-72 is the target zone outlined in prior analysis and that level is set to be tested this week.  There is strong support at this level, and after spending some time to firm up, a sharp bounce is to be expected.

30min Chart

$SPX - Shuffle Update

The fork as shown in the last analysis has done a nice job of capturing the recent price action.  The midfork was tested yesterday.

SPX is likely to find support in the proximity of the orange fork line and bounce again short term.   

15min Chart

$SPX - Sideways Shuffle

SPX has traded flat for several weeks.  The trend could continue this week since Friday is a holiday and trading may be quiet.  NDX has been a little weaker for the last several days though.

The cycle analysis is negative at the end of this week, but with the holiday this may be pushed into early next week instead.  Detailed April cycles will be coming shortly. 

15min Chart