Silver - Updated

A potentially very bullish pattern for Silver (short term) remains intact.  Point 6 needed some extra time to develop.  I'll have additional charts coming tomorrow for Silver including an intermediate term view.

I have mentioned recently that many time cycles are converging around May 20th.  It has been debatable whether that is a bottom or top.  Perhaps it is more indicative of a period of volatility as this Silver chart suggests.

30min Chart

$SPX - 30min Chart

The triangle "looked" as if it had broken down in the last few minutes of trading.  However, price is hovering at the pink line once again.  In the past this line has been an important dividing line marking the start of substantial rallies and declines.

As well, of note, the triangle apex is pointing to May 20th. 

30min Chart

Silver - Inverse Pattern Top/Bottom

I noticed an interesting inverse pattern that could be signalling a sharp rally in Silver.  I also see a symmetrical pattern that looks promising for Silver in the near term. 

I took a long position in Silver on Friday.       

30min Chart

$SPX - May Timing Update

An additional bounce to form more of a rounded top would look best.  I consider this market to be dangerous at this point in time though so caution is warranted.  The minimum requirements according to this cycle have nearly been met. 

We do have a triangle that has formed with the apex May 20th.  Many timing cycles are now converging on May 20th.       

I am watching intensely, and will post additional details as available.    

30min Chart



I am also pleased with my 2007 top cycle.  It has been quite accurately predicting the significant movements. 

3-day Chart

USO - Crude Oil Update

This was my forecast for Oil made on March 13th, 2011: 

"Crude has been inversely correlated with the markets since Libya. I think that may be about to change. $WTIC may be very near a short term bottom (early this week). So I think crude may actually rise now with the markets. A possible next target is $119. The media will probably say this is evidence of economic recovery.

There is talk of crude jumping to $150 - $225. I don't see this happening. Crude probably tops in April, and I'm very bearish on crude from that point."

60min Chart

$SPX - May Timing

Notice that SPX bounced at the pink line.  This is the same pink line that has been in place on my charts for months.  This is a long term trendline that traces back to the 2007 top.

The following 30min chart shows the symmetrical pattern currently unfolding.  I show the equivalent points in the cycle using the green arrows.

On the Left side of the Cycle Line there are 11 trading days to the green arrow.  On the Right side there are 5 trading days to that green arrow. 

11/5 = 2.2 Multiplier (the cycle is currently unfolding at a 2.2 times greater velocity, in terms of time, on the R side versus the L side)

From the Cycle Line on the Left side it is 31 trading days to the March 16th bottom.  31 days/2.2 Multiplier = 14 trading days.  May 2nd top plus 14 trading days is May 20th.  This cycle is suggesting that is a bottom. 

May 20th is also the day that my 22 day equal time cycle is pointing to as a major pivot point.

I also used the Multiplier to roughly estimate a rally up to a rounded top May 11-12.  

Remember, all of these timing estimates are approximations. 

30min Chart

        

  

SPY - Another Equal Time Cycle

Friday May 20, 2011 or Monday May 23 should be an important day according to this equal time cycle.  My view is that it is likely an important bottom.

Daily Chart