SPX has been soft and looks to have room to pullback some more in the short term. Volatility is relatively low but there are some negatives coming this Fall season. Traders are back at their desks now and may trim some holdings. Weekly
And yet another predictable rally into the 19-20 September FOMC meeting is underway...as indicated by the extreme put/call ratios ($cpc, $cpce) as well as KEystone Speculators 80/20 rule -- crossing 4480 should lead to 4520 (or more). Interesting that $nymo is still caught in the middle of bull/bear levels. Also, at this point, IWM may be attempting a W pattern on the daily chart, and $spx may just fill the previously mentioned gap above 4550. But boil and uvxy...still nothing more than bad news and pure gambles. Please consider the smart trade...Repent, Have Faith, and Obey...save your soul by investing in eternal life...Jesus saves. Matthew 22:36-40.
Or...the market will 'almost' hit 4520. Blame the miss on volatility...or climate change...or OpEx games...or the big auto strike...or maybe the strong resistance at 4520 (as shown on Pretzel Logic and Keystone Speculator charts -- info only, not trading advice). So, with the FOMC on 19-20 September, what gaps will fill first, $SPX above 4550 or IWM below 177? The nymo and put / call indicators are in neutral bull / bear territory, so it's a pure gamble now. But in the end, it matters not...life is very short, and no one will take any of their earthly treasures with them. Money is a tool to help your family and the many others who are less fortunate (Matthew 25:14-30). Money should never be your idol. Repent, Have Faith, and Obey.
Well that pretty much worked the way I had anticipated it would. There is a reason I was able to see the start of that selloff. It's because I follow volatility charts. Most important in this market.
Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur? LABU and IWM are certainly in traditional buy-buy-buy zones. Maybe IWM will fill the gap below 177 first since $nymo suggests a little more downside is needed. Or maybe selling will continue after a bounce that traps bulls and frustrates bears? But who knows... For the foolishness of God is wiser than human wisdom, and the weakness of God is stronger than human strength (1 Corinthians 1:25).
SC - Any thoughts on NVDA?
ReplyDeleteIt could be an interesting stock to watch as one of the negatives coming is the FTX trial due to start October 3rd.
DeleteDuly noted - Coreweave is interesting aspect as well.
DeleteSupport looks to be around 4,250.
ReplyDeleteThe August dip came close to support already though. So the August low in SPX may hold. We'll see.
DeleteInflation beginning to rear it's head again.
ReplyDeleteOne of the most important things to watch is mortgage resets. A wave of resets is coming into 2025. The higher inflation and rates the worse it gets.
ReplyDeleteAnd yet another predictable rally into the 19-20 September FOMC meeting is underway...as indicated by the extreme put/call ratios ($cpc, $cpce) as well as KEystone Speculators 80/20 rule -- crossing 4480 should lead to 4520 (or more). Interesting that $nymo is still caught in the middle of bull/bear levels. Also, at this point, IWM may be attempting a W pattern on the daily chart, and $spx may just fill the previously mentioned gap above 4550. But boil and uvxy...still nothing more than bad news and pure gambles. Please consider the smart trade...Repent, Have Faith, and Obey...save your soul by investing in eternal life...Jesus saves. Matthew 22:36-40.
ReplyDeleteOr...the market will 'almost' hit 4520. Blame the miss on volatility...or climate change...or OpEx games...or the big auto strike...or maybe the strong resistance at 4520 (as shown on Pretzel Logic and Keystone Speculator charts -- info only, not trading advice). So, with the FOMC on 19-20 September, what gaps will fill first, $SPX above 4550 or IWM below 177? The nymo and put / call indicators are in neutral bull / bear territory, so it's a pure gamble now. But in the end, it matters not...life is very short, and no one will take any of their earthly treasures with them. Money is a tool to help your family and the many others who are less fortunate (Matthew 25:14-30). Money should never be your idol. Repent, Have Faith, and Obey.
ReplyDeleteWell that pretty much worked the way I had anticipated it would. There is a reason I was able to see the start of that selloff. It's because I follow volatility charts. Most important in this market.
ReplyDeleteSell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur? LABU and IWM are certainly in traditional buy-buy-buy zones. Maybe IWM will fill the gap below 177 first since $nymo suggests a little more downside is needed. Or maybe selling will continue after a bounce that traps bulls and frustrates bears? But who knows... For the foolishness of God is wiser than human wisdom, and the weakness of God is stronger than human strength (1 Corinthians 1:25).
ReplyDeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete