Monday, August 22, 2022
XLE - Inverse Head and Shoulders
XLE has an inverse head and shoulders and looks to be getting ready to pop short term. There is a gap target area identified above. Oil and gas shares have run lately and Crude is looking cheap. A pop in Crude could be imminent leading to a further rise in Oil shares. 60 min and Daily Charts
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"Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway on Friday received regulatory approval to purchase up to 50% of oil giant Occidental Petroleum."
ReplyDeletePutin turning the screws end of August.
ReplyDelete"Gas flows via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will be suspended for the three-day period from Aug. 31 to Sept. 2."
FED meeting Jackson Hole August 25-27
ReplyDeleteSC, Powell market liftoff or crash?
DeleteGood question. Let see how things set up this week.
DeleteAMC stock dipping pre market
ReplyDeleteThe reason I have stayed clear of meme stock recently is that I has said they were likely to capitulate. This is 2008 for meme stocks. There are good and bad. Until the good is separated from the bad they are under pressure. Probably a bankruptcy coming in the group.
DeleteLol
ReplyDeleteFront month vix up 5%
Vix up 13%
Uvxy up 5.3%
What a pos this etf is honestly
uvix---is better
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteoil is going up --the dollar looks like it could double top--if the dollar double tops and turns down with oil going higher --inflation will increase into the fall/ winter season--I am on gush with you--I guess you are looking for 200 or higher???
Yes Oil pop but not major run yet. Just short term trade. So I'll take profit or lighten soon.
DeleteWith the recent inflationary measures taken by Biden - this will only mean the Fed has to get even more hawkish...SPX/Gold plunge soon?
ReplyDeleteRob-
ReplyDeleteI do agree with the analytics--Powel--still does not want to be anything but dovish--tomorrow--we will see --we had a run to the 200 day moving average which is still in a downward slope-I waiting on the markets reaction--oil is still going higher and going into the end of the year-we should get a spike in oil-we need to see how he explains the inflation factors going into the last quarter- Be nimble!
Bam, smacked down hard. Anyone buying??
ReplyDeleteMarket crushed today, 1008.38 symmetry there...
ReplyDeleteAll next week --should be down--we broke the upward trend at Spx-4080
ReplyDeleteI'm getting back into LABU. Bought starter position pre market $8.66.
ReplyDeleteLABU can see lower though. I was thinking $7. Anyway started to enter.
ReplyDeleteSold LABU $9
ReplyDeleteInteresting read https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/other/china-s-dim-prospects-turn-disastrous/ar-AA11eEwk?ocid=iehp&cvid=13c7312d365d40abbfe6e0bca7fd8e2a
ReplyDeleteLabu, how low does she go?
ReplyDelete$7 LABU would be nice.
Deleteuse 81-82 area to build position, gap at high end of range almost fell today but left slightly open, tomorrow most likely fills
Delete81-82 XBI for labu price
DeleteRIG if it dips to near 50 day average $3.29 might as well enter
ReplyDeletethe market looks lower
ReplyDeleteVolatility still relatively quiet. That's because Volatility spikes at the bottom of SPX. When everything looks the worst.
ReplyDeleteOr said another way there is no bottom for SPX until volatility spikes.
ReplyDeleteBought DWAC $24.80. Gap filled
ReplyDeletewe would need to bounce to get that fill on Dwac--I will wait for the close---there could be a big dump tomorrow or test short term highs in to the holiday!
ReplyDelete"Taiwan's military fires warning shots at Chinese drone"
ReplyDeleteSc,
ReplyDeleteHere is the line in the sand--Spx-3900--below we drop --above we can chase the shorts out --one more time--be nimble!
Sc ... is the ocgn trade dead ?
ReplyDeleteIts been stuck at 2.50 to 3 dollar area forever now
It's good but in a holding pattern until ready. XBI is getting ready for a big run but in a bottoming pattern.
DeleteAlso I think with OCGN watch Mexico. Mexico in June came close to surpassing January Omicron numbers then came down. It'll spike again. Mexico likely the first contract for OCGN vaccine.
Sc do you see vix topped out or you think it runs next week ?
ReplyDeleteThis may be a good week to look for intra week reversal.
DeleteVIX I'm waiting for the trendline test of 16. Because the market is shaky it takes time but VIX will get there.
There we go LABU edging down!
ReplyDeleteVIX up slightly but I'm well aware of the midterms coming up in November. Likely to see low volatility until after that date.
ReplyDeletewent large LABU, gap closed... 8.04
ReplyDeleteBoom!! Great call HCG👍👍
Deletegood to be lucky! If XBI gets thru 88.50 I would expect run to 110-15 area
Deletesc----Uvxy is cheap here--???
ReplyDeleteNot yet. Let's wait for GUSH $220. Then UVXY.
Deletewkly hammer candle possible above trendline for /CL dependent on rest of day
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteI play monthly options on gush --double my money ---every three to four days --gush at 220 again ----will crush the economy --that is just mean!
Oil shares, GUSH, XLE running well into 2023. Winter is coming!
DeleteCrude just coming off its lows. Plenty room to run over $100
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeletethis is normal movement--Come on?---the rail strike--NRBO--.60 cents to 50 bucks--pure manipulation--vix is up 2---Spy support is 392 if that goes --we test the lows?---no advice?
I'm expecting VIX to decline into midterms then spike
DeleteSc-
ReplyDeleteMaybe in October---today is a reversal ---we could test the lows again!
what a flush that took out some great profit on LABU
ReplyDeleteSPX on monthly candle is looking like bearish doji or tweezer top....
XLE looks good to run to $93
ReplyDeleteSPX that kind of one day wonder doesn't bother the VIX much. SPX will muddle along. It'll do ok but not a great performer like Oil in high inflation economy.
ReplyDeleteSPX will recover but choppy then a winter free fall.
ReplyDeleteI'm long XLE $85 Nov 18 Calls big time!
ReplyDeleteAnd GUSH!!
DeleteThe Calls should be worth $10 if XLE runs to $93. Up 300%
Deletesc,
ReplyDeletebiggest drop since June 2020---sideways into Friday--then a Flush out into next week week --there is not much buying here to hold us up --there playing futures---that really did not work well---from last week---let's wait and see?
October and November will be choppy months for sure. Will plan a Volatility trade in there
DeleteNational rail strike could be very bullish Crude. A lot of Oil and energy products move by rail. A stoppage or threat and up goes the price!
ReplyDeletesc--
ReplyDeleteRail strike --will raise oil products --hurt the food business, tech and automotive industries--no deliveries----double edge sword!
Yes if railroads strike so does the economy!
Deletesc,
ReplyDeletethis not bouncing and gush ---is getting beat up ---be careful!
sc,
ReplyDeletewe will test the lows again by the End of month
--have a good day!
Starting to feel like 2008 except this time the fed is raising rates instead of cutting rates. A worse outcome? Anyone...
Deletesc
ReplyDeletethis is where you buy gush options ---starting here!
RIG looks like it may come down a little more to test the recent lows $2.50. I will plan to position there. Oil will run again.
ReplyDeleteWell it did work as we had discussed with September selling pressure in the markets.
ReplyDeleteNow we'll have to wait for the market to base again.
The heaviest selling will come in winter. That is clear.
Bottom by June over or under 2000...
DeleteSc... biden announced coronavirus over... is the ocgn trade officially dead ?
ReplyDeleteNo because they have rights to not only USA also Mexico and Canada. Any of these countries could choose to stockpile vaccines.
DeleteAnd really the easier answer is that Biotech as a group is really cheap. XBI peaked in February 2021. Almost a year ahead of SPX. Biotech getting closer to a big run.
But we're going to have to pick and choose our spots to be sure.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has told India’s Narendra Modi that he understood New Delhi’s concerns about the conflict in Ukraine and wanted it to end “as soon as possible”
ReplyDeleteTwo days later....
ReplyDeleteRussia has struck a nuclear power plant in Ukraine's southern region.
Bought RIG $2.73.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteFSMN (@faststocknewss)
President Vladimir Putin is set to address his nation tonight in a highly-unusual speech in which he is expected to order the full mobilization of his country's military. - Sun
Twitter•Today at 12:54 PM
Nuclear strikes in Ukraine since Russia is doing badly, Putin poor polling.
DeleteLooks like that's it for the selling for now. Bounce and we may see a little lower in October.
ReplyDelete"Putin mobilizes 300,000 troops for war"
ReplyDeleteLONDON, Sept 21 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday ordered Russia's first mobilisation since World War Two and backed a plan to annex swathes of Ukraine, warning the West he was not bluffing when he said he'd be ready to use nuclear weapons to defend Russia.
DeleteThe initial attack was 190,000 soldiers. Russia scaling up the war now just as I have warned.
ReplyDeletePutin mobilizing and additional 300,000 for a total 490,000 troops.
It appears that Covid is still rampant. What has happened is that because testing is now done in private at home the government statistics are of little value.
ReplyDelete"Flight prices out of Russia surge as Putin calls up reservists for Ukraine war"
ReplyDeleteFlights out of Russia 900% more expensive than normal
ReplyDeleteNew York has launched a $250 Million lawsuit against President Trump. Unprecedented...
ReplyDeleteSc,
ReplyDeleteis volatility about to spike???
Volatility still relatively quiet. We're getting towards that point as we wait.
DeleteLABU at $7, is it worth a buy yet
ReplyDeleteLABU has dropped to $7 as anticipated. I am looking at these charts now. Because LABU is leveraged there may be further decay yet it's getting close.
DeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete