SPX is approaching an overbought condition on the daily chart. While SPX is having a good week it will have a negative week soon. SPX is nearly ready for a pullback. Daily
SC when is the optimal time for the democrats to declare a public health emergency being as November 8 is the midterm election date. That way they can gear up for mass mail in ballots, water main breaks like in Georgia so evacuation orders go out except the crats stay, locking out observers and all the other tactics that worked so well. See you in September?
“We haven’t the faintest idea what the stock market is gonna do when it opens on Monday — we never have,” the legendary 91-year-old “Oracle of Omaha” admitted Saturday to investors who flocked to Nebraska for the company’s annual meeting, the first in-person gathering since the start of the pandemic.
“If I had any sense of timing,” he said, he would have bought stocks when the COVID-19 pandemic went global in March 2020
“I totally missed that opportunity,” he said. “We haven’t ever timed anything. We’ve never figured out insights into the economy.”
I think SPX probably is going to have a slow August then yes September it'll get up to the 200 daily now at 4,350. Probably overthrow a little. Yes October smackdown for Midterms
be careful shorting into mid terms, operation CPI beat down in play....no fed meeting until Sept. If they move CPI down they could do .25 raise only to stay out of political theatre of mid terms
XBI has a great daily chart, and still might go a little higher but I think there is another consolidation coming before a bigger surge probably starting in September.
We are patiently waiting for the vix chart ---I believe you are waiting for a catalyst to create the volatility---we do need a reversal before we turn down to Spx 3900 or lower--then I believe we have another run to Spx 4300--timing these days is everything in this market --retail sector releases their numbers this week --let's wait and see--the slowing of spending of the American consumer --china stocks being delisted from the NYSE--could be that catalyst--just waiting to see the Vix chart? Have a good weekend!
Oil is bad and government has chosen to fight the energy sector as their solution to the energy crisis. That will have consequences. Quite frankly the Oil drillers including RIG are out of favor for now since drilling is discouraged.
However I see the 200 weekly at $4.28 RIG as a short term target.
A little more up to get overbought and then we'll see a bad week.
ReplyDeleteI chose to play it with Biotech which got deeply oversold in June.
ReplyDeleteXBI having a good run. Up 35% from it's June lows!
DeleteSo let's get ready for a pullback.
ReplyDeleteI think this Fall season is going to be highly volatile. Excellent for trading!
ReplyDeleteThanks SC, scaling into puts while we move to 4200+
ReplyDeleteSPX likely pullback near 50 average
DeleteAre you saying pullback to the 50-day MA, currently around 3938?
DeleteI am looking for 3800ish within two months
DeleteYes pullback towards the 50 the play for now. Deeper in the Fall months
Delete"Polio found in sewage samples outside New York City suggesting it’s spreading in the community, health officials says"
ReplyDeleteXBI and LABU extremely strong with Monkeypox state of emergency across the country and Polio crisis in New York.
ReplyDeleteCharts extremely strong!
"Biden administration will declare monkeypox outbreak a public health emergency in the U.S."
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteSC when is the optimal time for the democrats to declare a public health emergency being as November 8 is the midterm election date. That way they can gear up for mass mail in ballots, water main breaks like in Georgia so evacuation orders go out except the crats stay, locking out observers and all the other tactics that worked so well. See you in September?
DeleteYes they'll push the public health emergency. Fall months especially. Utilizing the timing to build crisis.
Deletesc,
ReplyDeletenice move --labu --taking profits!
here comes china and Taiwan?
I love pelosi???
I do think Biotech can cool off for a few weeks.
ReplyDeleteOCGN back trading about $3. Settle back to $2.5. Then run to $4.
ReplyDeleteChina now taking its turn to throw a jab
ReplyDeleteWith this dip out of the it may push to 4200 today, scaling in more LT puts with VST Calls
ReplyDeleteSC.
ReplyDeleteUvxy----Not yet?
We got to be getting closer?
Couple more weeks I think
DeleteSold LABU $11.95.
ReplyDeleteTarget achieved LABU.
DeleteSCJuly 15, 2022 at 5:19 AM
"$12 to $15 possible"
Buffet has posted massive losses.
ReplyDelete$53 billion loss on its investments during the quarter
“We haven’t the faintest idea what the stock market is gonna do when it opens on Monday — we never have,” the legendary 91-year-old “Oracle of Omaha” admitted Saturday to investors who flocked to Nebraska for the company’s annual meeting, the first in-person gathering since the start of the pandemic.
Delete“If I had any sense of timing,” he said, he would have bought stocks when the COVID-19 pandemic went global in March 2020
“I totally missed that opportunity,” he said. “We haven’t ever timed anything. We’ve never figured out insights into the economy.”
Sc,
ReplyDeleteNot sure of the meaning--does the business(Omaha)need new leadership--It is a loss----They can afford it---These things happen?
The old buy and hold forever.
DeleteYes Buffet's loss likely to grow larger. He doesn't take losses. No stop loss there. This looks like it will be a big drawdown for him.
DeleteTo make matter worse Buffet's portfolio is concentrated in a few stocks. Yes a big setback for "buy and hold".
DeleteSC, will the spx make it to the 200 MA before it gets smacked down? Do you see a big smack down in October?
ReplyDeleteI think SPX probably is going to have a slow August then yes September it'll get up to the 200 daily now at 4,350. Probably overthrow a little. Yes October smackdown for Midterms
Delete200 daily and 50 weekly SPX both about the same price.
DeleteA lot of people watching the 2008 comparison to 2022 fractals. I have ideas on this. It can play out a bit longer but SPX won't crash in the same way.
ReplyDeleteBut SPX will still crash?
DeleteNot a crash yet but a bear market. The market will be under pressure until it can see an end in sight to the war in Ukraine.
Deletebe careful shorting into mid terms, operation CPI beat down in play....no fed meeting until Sept. If they move CPI down they could do .25 raise only to stay out of political theatre of mid terms
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteFBI --Trump Search,----80,000-----New IRS agents --we are getting closer to the volatility---that is clearly shown---Lets see the volatility?
Yep...bring on volatility
DeleteHi SC, great call on Biotech. You had mentioned a cool off period for a few weeks in Biotech. Do you have a target for the pull back?
ReplyDeleteit will be short, but they could hurt folks for take down to open gap, triple top breakout says 114-124 XBI
DeleteAround 82.00 gap on XBI?
ReplyDeleteXBI has a great daily chart, and still might go a little higher but I think there is another consolidation coming before a bigger surge probably starting in September.
ReplyDeleteVIX chart coming next...
ReplyDeleteGotta be close to a bottom..
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteI have been waiting for volatility for a while--hoping the vix --bottoms next week?
Shorting at closebig time
ReplyDelete👍👍
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteWe are patiently waiting for the vix chart ---I believe you are waiting for a catalyst to create the volatility---we do need a reversal before we turn down to Spx 3900 or lower--then I believe we have another run to Spx 4300--timing these days is everything in this market --retail sector releases their numbers this week --let's wait and see--the slowing of spending of the American consumer --china stocks being delisted from the NYSE--could be that catalyst--just waiting to see the Vix chart?
Have a good weekend!
SC, it looks like there is no fear
ReplyDeleteYou know what happens.
DeleteBought RIG $3.32.
ReplyDeleteOil is bad and government has chosen to fight the energy sector as their solution to the energy crisis. That will have consequences. Quite frankly the Oil drillers including RIG are out of favor for now since drilling is discouraged.
DeleteHowever I see the 200 weekly at $4.28 RIG as a short term target.
VIX chart has been posted!
ReplyDelete