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Thursday, March 31, 2022

XLE - Sharp Pullback Due

Oil shares are overextended and a pullback is due. It's going to be swift. Also it's going to be brief. Weekly

137 comments:

  1. "The White House on Thursday announced that the U.S. will release 1 million barrels of oil per day from strategic reserves to help cut gas prices and fight inflation across the country.

    A fact sheet released by the Biden administration showed that the president plans to tap the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the next six months as domestic producers ramp up production. The document also noted that the move came after discussions with American partners.

    “The scale of this release is unprecedented: the world has never had a release of oil reserves at this 1 million per day rate for this length of time,” the White House said in a release. “This record release will provide a historic amount of supply to serve as bridge until the end of the year when domestic production ramps up.”

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  2. Biden has decided to sell 1 Million barrels of Oil a day.

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  3. Funny that even with this announcement Oil shares are actually up today! GUSH, XLE are up!!

    That tells you how significant a problem they have.

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  4. The last time Biden sold Oil, in December, it did put a dent in XLE, but not this time. However, I suspect something else is coming.

    A deal with Iran seems the most likely.

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  5. Biden should thank Trump for filling up the US Strategic Oil Reserves otherwise he’d have nothing to sell.


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    Replies
    1. How true! It is foolish to do this, what happens when we really need the oil? At this rate we'll be fortunate to make it to 2024 and fortunate to get a fair and honest election...

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  6. sc--

    I am wondering about the UVXY--I dont want to miss the boat?

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    Replies
    1. Could be time now...We have formed the RS of the big H&S pattern in the SPX...Might go higher yet to 4700, but worth a shot here...

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  7. Foreigners will not be pulling money out of the US market, its literally the only safe place even with this inflation, China, RE collapse along with covid recircling to the perps who created it, globalization is toast...Europe, are you kidding that is like investing in a forest fire...

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  8. Louis
    Do you think INVU is starting another run? Any idea how high it might go?

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    Replies
    1. Louis, good to see you again! What's your thoughts on UVXY? What's your target and timeline?

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  9. Volatility charts are coming, but I still want to see this rally finish.

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  10. A major bank has gone rougue and at risk of failure. This may be the first since 2008.

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  11. Sc can u please post uvxy or spy cycle. Some are saying low in June and sept

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  12. Especially relating to xbi and tqqq

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  13. Twitter spiking with Musk taking 9% stake

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  14. Twitter move knocking down the DWAC

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  15. Nasdaq shows strength today, NFLX pop

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  16. Natural gas, expect over 10.....bullish for 2 years with outsized counters on OB conditions....its the widow maker...

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    Replies
    1. and here we are.....did anyone get involved with the best sector by far for next 2 years.....

      7.35 today.....Boil 40-94 run...

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  17. Basically GUSH still appears a pullback is coming but it can be a few more weeks up. GUSH is pricey but I notice DRIP not quite oversold.

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  18. sc,

    That looks like reversal on the Market today, I understand the gush play--but I picked up YANG and a little UVXY--this could be the start of Wave c down--leads to the test of the lows---any advice?

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    Replies
    1. Still seems a little quiet

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    2. Market is a little shaky but we knew this for the start of April because the first Quarter was negative

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  19. Even with Biden selling a Million barrels of Oil a day, oil shares continue to rise.

    Partly I think this is because oil stocks are adjusting to a new higher price environment.

    The other point is that the selling will be cumulative. So early on the Oil selling won't have much effect but later on yes.

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  20. Musk being involved in Twitter doesn't change the fact there is a ton of nonsense on there. It's really bad!

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  21. sc,

    any way I look at this --we are in a Wave c down--todays move will confirm this--we will be at new lows sometime this month- I understand the Gush play--but shorting Technology --will be so much more profitable!---oil above 105 per barrel -will keep the market down---the highs could be in to the second half of this year!

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    Replies
    1. To short markets still waiting for NFLX to hit $425. Once that happens, yes I'll be looking to short side.

      It's still a positive outlook until that happens. We're getting closer...

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  22. sc,

    understood!

    but why NFLX--to 425?

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    Replies
    1. The reason is that of all the tech, NFLX is perfectly balanced, an equilibrium. It could have been any tech stock but NFLX is the one identified that is trading in a range. At the low end of the range I am trading long markets and at the high end I am shorting.

      The NFLX daily chart 200 ma at $425, next target and resistance.

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    2. Nflx whacked today. The bold will be buying.

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  23. sc,

    I understand the NFLX move ---but there are so many moves that can be made before that occurs--I am not that understanding that NFLX -will dictate balance of the Worlds troubles -Volatility-But as always --I will give you the benefit of doubt- lets wait and see!

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    Replies
    1. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/06/charts-suggest-the-market-could-rally-after-its-current-short-term-volatility-spike-jim-cramer-says.html

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  24. It still looking like a reverse H&S to me

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  25. sc,

    if we cant get above SPX-4500---By the Eod --Friday or Monday--we could be below SPX 4400--Have a good day!

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    Replies
    1. Big banks kick off earnings next week🚀🚀🚀

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  26. sc,

    so you guys know ---we need to close above -Spx 4500 or it get ugly next week!


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  27. Giving Ukraine weapons is not "aid"

    "Boris Johnson vows more aid to Ukraine"

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  28. sc,

    the more weapons they give Zelensky --the more damage Putin does.

    Does that make sense?

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  29. China important timing coming!

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  30. Replies
    1. Not good, heading into a bad time period. I have the links coming to explain why

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    2. china may take taiwan soon...

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  31. Sc,

    any updates--looks like a retest of the lows?

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  32. Replies
    1. I did trade OCGN in at $2.35 and out at $2.84.

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  33. GUSH performing well, sometimes Oil is just the easiest trade

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  34. sc,

    UVXY-above 14 again---could run ---above 14---next break could be in the next three trading days --looking for 20 or better----Please advise?

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  35. sc,

    very true---but long weekend--ahead-?

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  36. sc,

    I figured some volatility --Nothing--huge inflation--threat of Nuclear weapons -NYC-kids get shot---Absolutely Calm?????

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    Replies
    1. Yes, and this is a "tell". Volatility market is overstimulated.

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  37. sc,


    Meaning the Market is going higher?

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    Replies
    1. We are going to see the Volatility eventually but the worries are excessive at the moment.

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    2. Conditions for volatility are increasing all the time. This is clear, but it's all in the timing.

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  38. My theory of inverse head and shoulders looks complete on Nazdaq and close on the S&P. Lets hope we go up from here.

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  39. Good Friday and Easter to everyone.

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  40. Took profits sold GUSH $193.

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    Replies
    1. We have that high on XLE in conjunction with GUSH weekly overbought.

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  41. The Oil trade is overcrowded

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  42. sc,

    we should have a rally into Wednesday above SPX 4500.

    Then down---into the end of month---maybe SPX 4000 to 4100 the supply chain ---could be a problem--I am not sure yet!

    out the 16000 publicly traded stocks only 16% are being held more then 30 days--mostly energy.

    that is not Good?

    Futures are holding us up --that's all!

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  43. Sc where are we in labu. Looks like low volume spy- trading

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  44. I'm also wondering what the hell is going on with LABU.

    I bought in just the other day and now I'm down 14%. After yesterday LABU is still in the red at $12.14 as I write this. It's turning in to a freakin' blood bath for biotech.

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  45. Point and figure chart has a target of 9 for labu, 77 for xbi.

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  46. sc,

    I don't see NFLX back to 425 ---anytime soon after those numbers

    Houston--we got a problem!

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    Replies
    1. "Netflix (NFLX) reported an unexpected decline in first-quarter net subscribers as the company navigated an exit from Russia and an increasingly saturated North American market." 3 day rule?

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  47. Netflix dropped out of that range. So time to review

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  48. netflix 2019 double bottom is probally i buy in here lets seew when dust settles

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  49. Replies
    1. Looking like right back to the start of 2018 around $200

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    2. i believe nflx is ripe to be bought out if i was apple i would buy it

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    3. Hmmm good point. Let's see how this plays out

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  50. I had figured NFLX would have reached $425 the 200 avg before it dropped. Best it could do was $396. I knew it would move large, that's why I kept saying watch Netflix. Sorry guys would have been a nice short with Puts which I had planned eventually.

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  51. sc--that is not your fault ---everyone makes mistakes--I see the Uvxy---is pretty low ---Any advice???

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  52. Much obsession with TWTR. That's when NFLX dropped

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  53. Sc when is ocgn expected to move to 11 ?

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    Replies
    1. OCGN has now secured the rights to Mexico! Their vaccine is already approved in Mexico for adults and an emergency use application is underway for children 2 to 18 in Mexico.

      So approval seems probable!

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    2. We're getting closer Sami and there is a time frame and catalyst coming. I'll explain with the biotech post.

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  54. There is something that is important to know regarding the Biotech, XBI, LABU. I'm getting those charts ready and we can have a discussion about this situation.

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    Replies
    1. SC, a series of virus scares then just before the November election a major scare, mandatory mask mandates, mandatory mail in voting, how surprising would that be?

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    2. November is super important definitely. Market mover without a doubt, thank you for reminding me about this event!

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  55. What is really going on in the market? I accept stocks are falling, yea. Then why UVXY is also falling, too? Do they go opposite ways?

    Can anybody explain?

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  56. How could I let this Netflix drop slip between my fingers. And right on 420!!

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  57. sc,

    On to the next one --we filled the gap on SPX----NFLX-lost 40 Billion in Valuation in one day---as of EOD tomorrow --I see a continuation to the downside--we could use that UVXY chart--if available---Please advise?

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  58. SPX just a lot of consolidation.

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  59. SPX is perched at the 50 weekly

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    Replies
    1. Tom McClellan: DJI 37,000 and temporary peak on long-term yields.

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  60. sc--

    Any way I look at this B-wave up--whether -Spx 4495 or 4540--it is still retracing--the next move should be down---we will need the UVXY chart by weekend --5 days up is the Norm --that is tomorrow?

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  61. SC, I'd love to hear your opinion on LABU and Biotech. LABU just can't seem to move higher while the general indices like the DOW, S&P and Nasdaq have been slowly inching up the last 3 days.

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  62. Not sure why the board is not scaling into uvxy here even for quick trades...loaded with crash puts for june exp...hope others see the large H&S pattern formed on SPX...May could be time for the plunge...

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  63. Happy Friday SC😀😀 Market pricing in a .50 rate hike last few days?

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  64. sc--

    uvxy---bought at 11.80----will sell above 16---if we break new lows--20 to 25!

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  65. sc,

    It looks like the week of Jan 24--we should see a capitulation spike down on Monday--then a battle over inflation--could form a inverse head and shoulders and up to Spx 4600 level--if not below SPX 4000---yet to be seen!

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  66. LABU went from an intraday high of $19.51 on April 5th to an intraday low of $10.43 on April 22nd.

    So LABU was basically almost cut in half in just 13 trading days. Unreal!

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  67. I don't think there is enough weakness in the market yet. Expect SPX to rally.

    It is weakening but not ready for selloff yet. I think retest 4,700.

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  68. For one thing Putin is regrouping. That gives the market room to rally. Once Russia goes back on the offense then yes SPX will plummet.

    We're trading war time.

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  69. sc--I agree selling uvxy ---we should rally into May 2---going long at the EOD

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  70. im buying this dip i think we pop up to 4600

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  71. Putin is Bidens --scapegoat--inflation rules-not transitory---Mandatory

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  72. Replies
    1. Oil can rally somewhat with markets. RIG trading near the 200 average. Good for a pop anyway

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  73. So yes we should rally next. This was just a pullback. I'd estimate that the real selloff is another month away. June

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