RIG has started to heat up and is likely to form an uptrend for months to come. It can cool off though to test some support before continuing higher. Daily
I mean that the Russian war will be short and quick. The Russians are so dominant that Ukraine will soon be Russian territory. The fear is that this war will be long and, or that other countries will become involved.
This is very unlikely because the war will soon be over.
I hope you're right! Yes, the fear is that the war will drag out much longer and worse--that other parties will get involved. Let's hope the Ukrainians realize they can't go up against the Bear alone, so it's better for them and the rest of the world to end it. If they do end it soon, the country of Ukraine will still exist, although the Donbass and possibly other parts of eastern Ukraine will go to Russia or be their own separate country. If they continue to prolong this thing, Russia will just take it all and Ukraine will cease to exist.
Good call on Rig! I sold at 5.06 early, but now thinking I should get back in.
here is better take on oil, Crude future firms are the new bond vigilantes, they can dictate rates by keeping inflation high and making powell raise.....the other part of equation is Ukraine could end the war in minutes by declaring its independence and ending petition to NATO, this is why Trump wanted out of NATO, NATO is just a military complex dressed in organization drag......he was going to pull out 2nd term, thus why it was given to a demented fool.....get ready more waterfalls to come.....375 SPY is on the way
might be time to look at XBI, LABU possible down move still left in sector but it has room to run, LABU 3X is running behind, needs move volatility with continued move...lot of beat up names though....
Yes March is the month for Biotech turn up. 2nd anniversary of the pandemic lows from 2020. Biotech very undervalued having come down from February 2021 highs.
S&P big rally today! Reason that I bought NFLX yesterday was that it retested the January low. I said it was my barometer for the stock market. Yes we can see the proof today!
All I know is that Biotech bottom is due this month by my model. I'm not expecting much to happen in March though but rather in April, May, and June run.
we are not looking at the right things--Uvxy--Yang ---all doubles in the last 30 Days --we need to pay attention more --we are here to make money--not watch our- old picks double and not pay attention!
I would stay aware of NG, its in a bullish super cycle and next 3 years will provide many opps to go long and short....but its in similar fractal as 2004, he 4 year cycle line just crossed the 7 year cycle...see my weekly chart here BOIL and UNG will work, Super spike to 10-12 very likely in next 6 months..
If we break to new lows by the end of the month, that will be a complete quarter (90-Days) that we are down--One Quarter Down --This leads to two quarters down--Most people do not pay attention to this. The problem with this is End of June comes and we have two Quarters down --leads to a much longer term--3 to 5 Quarters down--A years time---Oil at 140 to 160 Barrel--does not help our economy--we need to rise to SPX 4500-- very soon--or we will be shorting a lot more then most analysts expect!
If we break to new lows by the end of the month, that will be a complete quarter (90-Days) that we are down--One Quarter Down --This leads to two quarters down--Most people do not pay attention to this. The problem with this is End of June comes and we have two Quarters down --leads to a much longer term--3 to 5 Quarters down--A years time---Oil at 140 to 160 Barrel--does not help our economy--we need to rise to SPX 4500-- very soon--or we will be shorting a lot more then most analysts expect!
TQQQ should rebound with the Nasdaq but rather than adding to it, I decided to take a position in NFLX. The reason is the up and down creates decay in TQQQ due to the leverage. So I have been buying in Nasdaq but not with leverage.
Oil I'm not expecting to do much in March. It spiked last night but those types of irrational moves occur outside of regular market hours.
ReplyDeleteOil is high enough that it needs to consolidate before it resumes higher into September.
XLE at $76 has already exceeded my March target of $74.
ReplyDeleteXLE I'm expecting a significant pullback in next 30 days.
ReplyDeleteXLE in the red
ReplyDeleteRIG second most active stock on the board today.
ReplyDeleteA lot of the concern about the war comes from the fact wars involving the US last a long time. The Afghanistan war was 20 years.
ReplyDeleteThe Russian war will be over in 30 days. Russia is dominating.
Well give it 60 days but this will be a quick war for Russia
Curious what you mean by these two statements? Could you please elaborate more?
Are you still looking for upside in March for the stock markets?
I mean that the Russian war will be short and quick. The Russians are so dominant that Ukraine will soon be Russian territory. The fear is that this war will be long and, or that other countries will become involved.
ReplyDeleteThis is very unlikely because the war will soon be over.
I hope you're right! Yes, the fear is that the war will drag out much longer and worse--that other parties will get involved. Let's hope the Ukrainians realize they can't go up against the Bear alone, so it's better for them and the rest of the world to end it. If they do end it soon, the country of Ukraine will still exist, although the Donbass and possibly other parts of eastern Ukraine will go to Russia or be their own separate country. If they continue to prolong this thing, Russia will just take it all and Ukraine will cease to exist.
DeleteGood call on Rig! I sold at 5.06 early, but now thinking I should get back in.
One concern I have about oil and gold and silver is that when the war ends, the stock market will likely soar and oil and the metals could crash.
DeleteDo you have any concern about the bottom dropping out of oil when the war ends?
The war is only about a third of the equation for Oil in my opinion. Inflation is another third. Then the reopening final third.
DeleteBeyond the war, Oil prices will continue to rise in price with inflation and with increased demand as the pandemic ends.
That's why this is so explosive for Oil.
Also even with an end to the war geopolitical risk is rising and will continue. Russia, China, etc...
DeleteAre you still looking for upside in March for the stock markets?
ReplyDeleteMarkets will recover just fine. I don't think March will be a great month for the market but it will find it's footing and rally again
DeleteFinally DWAC getting knocked down, let's see if it becomes oversold.
ReplyDeleteRIG big volume!!!
ReplyDeleteOil services leading today. Schlumberger and Halliburton leaders.
ReplyDeletehere is better take on oil, Crude future firms are the new bond vigilantes, they can dictate rates by keeping inflation high and making powell raise.....the other part of equation is Ukraine could end the war in minutes by declaring its independence and ending petition to NATO, this is why Trump wanted out of NATO, NATO is just a military complex dressed in organization drag......he was going to pull out 2nd term, thus why it was given to a demented fool.....get ready more waterfalls to come.....375 SPY is on the way
ReplyDeleteBought NFLX $347.00
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeletePresident--speaks today--first dump--they with hope we bottom!
I will wait and see the results--I don't think he will say anything good!
"Biden says U.S. will ban Russian oil imports in response to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine"
ReplyDeleteUp goes Oil...
ReplyDeleteAnd NFLX is up!
ReplyDeleteXLE starting to cool. We should have a drop to reload
ReplyDeletemight be time to look at XBI, LABU
ReplyDeletepossible down move still left in sector but it has room to run, LABU 3X is running behind, needs move volatility with continued move...lot of beat up names though....
accumulate AI
Yes March is the month for Biotech turn up. 2nd anniversary of the pandemic lows from 2020. Biotech very undervalued having come down from February 2021 highs.
ReplyDeleteBiotech seasonality is pronounced. Highs are formed in winter and lows in Spring and Summer.
ReplyDeleteTiming is here for Biotech bottom!
S&P big rally today! Reason that I bought NFLX yesterday was that it retested the January low. I said it was my barometer for the stock market. Yes we can see the proof today!
ReplyDeleteSC, do you think LABU has finally bottomed or is there a chance it will drop one more time between now and early April?
ReplyDeleteAll I know is that Biotech bottom is due this month by my model. I'm not expecting much to happen in March though but rather in April, May, and June run.
DeleteSc can u pl post xbi model. Is 8 dollar bottom for labu? It 3x.
ReplyDeleteYes I will post it. I'm expecting one bottom this month of March then a second bottom in August. Large bounce in between.
DeleteSPX expect up into March 26th. Rates raise this month but not much. Russian sanctions don't come into effect until the 26th.
ReplyDeleteNFLX up again! Very nice!!!
ReplyDeleteOil target coming and middle class is not going to like it...
ReplyDeleteSc where is buy for rig xle
ReplyDeleteXLE I'm waiting for a decline for next entry. Estimate $70 early April.
DeleteSC, what do you think about vix?
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeletewe are not looking at the right things--Uvxy--Yang ---all doubles in the last 30 Days --we need to pay attention more --we are here to make money--not watch our- old picks double and not pay attention!
I would stay aware of NG, its in a bullish super cycle and next 3 years will provide many opps to go long and short....but its in similar fractal as 2004, he 4 year cycle line just crossed the 7 year cycle...see my weekly chart here BOIL and UNG will work, Super spike to 10-12 very likely in next 6 months..
Deletehttps://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/86710c128edc6713a3079d8da4b59278e7bdf7f6ba6dd95710ba79f8d224f91d.png
playing long will be easier...the 2 year and 4 year cycle lines will be support on sell offs
Deletehttps://www.investing.com/analysis/as-natural-gas-heads-into-offseason-price-patterns-are-changing-200619664
Deleteguys,
ReplyDeleteIf we break to new lows by the end of the month, that will be a complete quarter (90-Days) that we are down--One Quarter Down --This leads to two quarters down--Most people do not pay attention to this. The problem with this is End of June comes and we have two Quarters down --leads to a much longer term--3 to 5 Quarters down--A years time---Oil at 140 to 160 Barrel--does not help our economy--we need to rise to SPX 4500-- very soon--or we will be shorting a lot more then most analysts expect!
Guys and Ladies,
ReplyDeleteIf we break to new lows by the end of the month, that will be a complete quarter (90-Days) that we are down--One Quarter Down --This leads to two quarters down--Most people do not pay attention to this. The problem with this is End of June comes and we have two Quarters down --leads to a much longer term--3 to 5 Quarters down--A years time---Oil at 140 to 160 Barrel--does not help our economy--we need to rise to SPX 4500-- very soon--or we will be shorting a lot more then most analysts expect!
sc,
ReplyDeleteYang---15 to 40 ----how do we miss that????
YANG made that pop on the lower low FXI that we were talking about late last year
DeleteAdded OCGN $2.39.
ReplyDeleteAdded OCGN Calls July 15 $7.50 strike for 19 and 20 cents.
ReplyDeletewhat about tqqq? we bought at 55!!!! any advice? thank yuo sc
ReplyDeletebuy more in the basement
DeleteTQQQ should rebound with the Nasdaq but rather than adding to it, I decided to take a position in NFLX. The reason is the up and down creates decay in TQQQ due to the leverage. So I have been buying in Nasdaq but not with leverage.
Delete4 trade date low im thginking 4400 then 4000
ReplyDeleteThere's 4411 at the close...4000 up next?
DeleteBought some DWAC $63.00. Finally it has come down to a reasonable price that I can look at it again. Just a nibble.
ReplyDeletesc---what about puts on Yang---huge gaps in that chart?
ReplyDeleteThanks, I'll review YANG
DeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete