Wednesday, February 2, 2022
XLE - Modelling Monthly Target Prices
XLE may be beginning a long trend higher this year. Oil prices are rising and XLE has shown resilience with little correction in January. Exxon delivered strong earnings yesterday. Based on preliminary modelling XLE can trend higher into September, and monthly target prices have been developed. Daily
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This was what I was talking about yesterday. I've started working on modelling prices for XLE this year.
ReplyDeleteHow this came about was that I wasn't that satisfied with GUSH. We've always done well with GUSH but because it's leveraged all of the chop creates some decay, and the performance while good short term could be better over longer time periods.
ReplyDeleteXLE options strategy I designed to catch this run in Oil and may be superior.
Of course GUSH is fine too for those who prefer etfs. GUSH target is around $200 to fill the big gap from 2020.
ReplyDeleteAlso it's not necessary to chase if you'd rather wait for more confirmation. February and March by the modelling only show relatively modest gains in XLE, and then a March/April dip around the time FED plans to cut rates. So there are good entry points later. Then the action heats up in Spring and Summer.
ReplyDelete*raise rates
Deletesc,
ReplyDeletecongratulations!
Looks good--8-5-8 pattern!
7 days since the low--follow the pattern!
Thanks!!!
DeleteRIG performing well. That's another way of playing it that I felt was attractive. It's been choppy but moving in the right direction. Up!
ReplyDelete$3.80 to $4 may be a good exit to take profit and look to reload lower for the run to $5.
With the XLE Calls I've selected profit potential is about 600% for September holding. There are a couple dips for XLE along the way, and I figure one in March and another in July. If we can catch and time those to reposition then profit goes up.
ReplyDeleteI'm out of AMC $16.10.
ReplyDeleteMight be worth looking again in April. Announced today $500 Million issue of bonds. It looks too heavy and not rallying well in an up market.
DeleteWe have important plans for UVXY.
ReplyDeletecare to share?
DeleteA sequence has begun in Volatility the will culminate in a large move. That is still quite some time away. UVXY is getting into a rhythm that is tradable. Often I pass on the first moves and then start to trade volatility once the rhythm is clear.
DeleteNext UVXY $10 pop to $15
Thanks. Much appreciated.
DeleteXLE reaching for the highs again.
ReplyDeleteSC, what broker do you use to buy xle?
ReplyDeleteTD
DeleteSPX 4600----there is a wall --lets get above it first--if we get above the level?
ReplyDeleteUVXY-will go to 8 to 10
This can be a retracement level?
Yet to be seen?
Agree UVXY
DeleteAmazon's--numbers will be the tell sign--tomorrow at the close!
ReplyDeletelet's wait and see?
Shell also reporting tomorrow
ReplyDeleteFacebook plunge. Metaverse lol
ReplyDeleteHa. I would love to see FB go to zero. I deleted my account almost a year ago due to their censorship.
DeleteFacebook flop, failed crypto, Metaverse and yes censorship. What a mess
DeleteSC, Are you still bullish on XBI this year? Do you have any upside targets?
ReplyDeleteYes, XBI is oversold now on weekly but it needs a bottoming formation to fill in February/March. I am expecting a shot to $125 when it is ready probably April to June.
DeleteXBI is going to be a great trade this year. I like it lot and charts coming. I just have been waiting for this low to mature.
DeleteIn your opinion, what circumstances will cause biotech to rise? It seems like the vaccines are old news. Are you thinking therapeutics? Trying to figure where the interest comes from.
DeleteIt's a healthcare crisis that goes beyond Covid. Aging population, babyboomers. Yes, biotech may actually be selling down because of Covid at this point. This is because the market is searching for the peak. The bigger crisis is health care and it's going to continue.
DeleteThey killed the Metaverse---I like that one---have a good Night!
ReplyDeleteWhat are your thoughts on gold,silver and the precious metal mining stocks?
ReplyDeleteGold has been so quiet. I think it is early amd not much action yet but when inflation really starts to boom so will gold.
DeleteLet's keep an eye on it but I have no plans immediately.
It's holding though and that is something in a shaky market.
SC - do you still have those low GLD targets around 5-700 from past posts if it sells off?
DeleteGold had stabilized at this price for now but it is possible. Gold is a long term play.
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteon the downside---with the Face book numbers--we could see downside to SPX 4360---we need to hold that level.
SPX 4360--by middle of next week --bottom of the range--we are stuck -- the range--(SPX 4600 top--to SPX 4360 bottom)
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteI am starting to think about UVXY here --We close below SPX 4500--we could accelerate right down to the middle of the month---Any advice?
UVXY stopped at 50 day average. UVXY should still see lower low $12
DeleteLet's wait for $12
Deletesc,
ReplyDeletewhat ever pop--we get into Fridays close----needs to be shorted into the middle of the month----we are going down into next Friday!
"U.S. oil crossed above $90 on Thursday for the first time since 2014"
ReplyDeleteGotcha!
ReplyDeleteNasdaq stocks making nice moves. I have identified the next one that could plunge.... I might do something with this stock for fun.
ReplyDeleteIt appears that the market needs to consolidate
ReplyDeleteWatching 9th of Feb as next CIT
Deletesc,
ReplyDeletewe cant hold SPX 4500---it looks down to SPX 4400!
it looks to be forming a c-wave down! (you should know that is could be bad)
guys-
ReplyDelete-this looks like Elliot wave A down --b up and C down----we could have 6 days of Down!
"Energy was the best sector for the week, up nearly 5%, followed by consumer discretionary stocks, up just under 4%. Financials were up 3.5%, and tech was up about 1%"
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteI know --you are looking for the most powerful sector but we can be down 500 points or more on a Elliot wave ---C-wave-- next week--
Just be careful--this fed is doing this!