Notice that Oil shares always have a reason to go up - whether that is inflation, war or reopening trade. After breaking out, the weekly bar is now trying to go green. XLE should pop into month end and first week of March next. Weekly
VIX will stay elevated for a while, maybe see 35 short term but getting jerked around. Conditions are ever increasing for volatility but that is big picture over years. Nothing will move larger than volatility.
We are very close to the time when they are going to try to call a peak or end to the pandemic. This can drive vaccine stocks and biotech lower in March. However in my opinion it does not matter and I will use the opportunities to enter long. Biotech is cheap and undervalued.
SC - VIX divergence on this SPX 4100 low - did not make a new high relative to Jan 24... but maybe now we can make it back to 4650 SPX now and UVXY smashed to 10-12?
SC, is this just a rebound to continue droping? I said 13,000 on nasdaq as first target but now I don't know if there will be more to the downside, maybe 12,000
probably several reason Russia is doing this: 1) They don't want another NATO country right at their border. In 1990 US & other NATO countries told Russia they would not expand NATO east of Germany. Since then NATO has added FOURTEEN countries east of Germany! Two of these border Russia. 2) US has more than a dozen biolabs in Ukraine 3) In 2014, the US with the help of local Ukrainian Nazi's ousted the democratically elected president and installed a right wing pro-West president.
Here's a pretty good summary which includes several points that the mainstream deliberately does not talk about. https://fair.org/home/what-you-should-really-know-about-ukraine/
"New York state officials found the effectiveness of Pfizer’s vaccine against Covid infection plummeted from 68% to 12% for children aged 5 to 11 during the omicron surge."
I am just spit-balling here but if oil hits (105-110)---to ---(120-130). Normally the economy slows down --taking down the market--especially technology---we test lows SPX 4250 after Biden speaks tonight --we need to hold it ---UVXY gets closer to 20!
Oil trading up to $106 a barrel today and should be strong a few more days but it will have some setbacks over the next 30 days. February I accumulated Oil aggressively and over next 30 days I plan to trade more actively.
"The prohibitions of the Russia-related CAPTA Directive take effect beginning at 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on March 26, 2022. Accordingly, by 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on March 26, 2022, U.S. financial institutions must have closed any correspondent or payable-through account maintained for Sberbank all other entities listed in Annex 1 to the Russia-related CAPTA Directive, and all foreign financial institutions owned 50 percent or more by the foregoing. In addition, after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on March 26, 2022, U.S. financial institutions may not process transactions involving those institutions and must reject such transactions, unless exempt or authorized by OFAC"
SC--imho--I use exponential moving averages -I am noticed that on the QQQ and the NDX the 50 day and the 200 day M/A are getting close to crossing --does this make opening to the Down side---more possible?
Today's news lifting oil.
ReplyDelete"Covid infections plummet 90% from U.S. pandemic high, states lift mask mandates"
Reopening trade
ReplyDeletethank you! I have positions in AMLP, DBO, and RIG. All are doing well.
ReplyDeleteGreat, yes many ways to play Oil. Pick a favorite Oil stock, etf, or Crude commodity.
DeleteOil has been trending up for a few years now
ReplyDeleteSC, what about the vix?
ReplyDeleteVIX will stay elevated for a while, maybe see 35 short term but getting jerked around. Conditions are ever increasing for volatility but that is big picture over years. Nothing will move larger than volatility.
DeleteSc are you back in ocgn ?
ReplyDeleteIt's in low 3s
Bought back a little OCGN at $3.28, but I will wait for March.
DeleteWe are very close to the time when they are going to try to call a peak or end to the pandemic. This can drive vaccine stocks and biotech lower in March. However in my opinion it does not matter and I will use the opportunities to enter long. Biotech is cheap and undervalued.
ReplyDeleteNFLX coming down but slowly.
ReplyDeleteWe've got pandemic, China, wars, unrest, and on and on. Conditions that are ripening for Volatility. Everything and the kitchen sink is coming...
ReplyDeleteSc XBI when is the low and price?
ReplyDeleteXBI finally we can look for a low in March, then strong run April, May, and June.
DeleteBought NFLX $370.00
ReplyDeleteToday starting NFLX. Should see $350 but already a good price. Target at least $425 possibly $440. Later $500.
ReplyDeleteUVXY a buy yet? Don’t see $10 in the cards
ReplyDeleteLet's see if it pulls back. 50 weekly is at $27
Deletethe winner and champ honestcreditguy
ReplyDeletehell is coming for breakfast
nailed it
Yes you did! You said "Biden covering up the mess democrats created in coup of Ukraine in 2014, Biden is pale white horse....."
DeleteOil seeing some strength towards $100
ReplyDeleteSCFebruary 14, 2022 at 11:06 AM
"Oil shot up higher again. Oil strength especially end of month into first week of March."
Sc ocgn is at 2.70s ... do you see it falling further ?
ReplyDeleteYes it can come down in March. Add on the dips.
Deletemarkets look like 3860 to 3950 i think by years end we will see 5000 plus spx
ReplyDeleteNFLX in the green
ReplyDeleteNFLX turned up right at $354. Now Nasdaq down less than SPX. That's the signal. Up we go.
ReplyDeleteSC - VIX divergence on this SPX 4100 low - did not make a new high relative to Jan 24... but maybe now we can make it back to 4650 SPX now and UVXY smashed to 10-12?
ReplyDeleteYes exactly, VIX went to 35 as suspected but yes relative to January the VIX is subdued.
DeleteNow we have the NDX dialed in. A real key to this market.
ReplyDeleteAny upside targets?
Delete15,000 NDX March. I just watch NFLX. When it hits $425 take profits.
DeleteSC, is this just a rebound to continue droping?
ReplyDeleteI said 13,000 on nasdaq as first target but now I don't know if there will be more to the downside, maybe 12,000
Yes, good call on the 13,000! Just a bounce. Nasdaq fell into a bear market, then bounce. It'll see a lower low after this bounce.
DeleteEnd of March for the low?
Deletemaybe around 11000?
First week of April. Just a marginal lower low. 12,500 NDX.
DeleteThe bigger selling will come later. This is all just consolidation.
I think in 3400 for spx end year, sma 200 weekly
DeleteThere'll be another selloff like January but later after months of consolidation.
DeleteThat's when the VIX will shine. VIX only spikes near the bottom.
And XLE is green on weekly...
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteI bought and sold UVXY--two times and made money--11.75-18, 12.50 to 20---are you still expecting UVXT---back below 10????
Yes let's wait for this rally in the Nasdaq to finish and then UVXY.
Deletesc--you realy think under 10!
ReplyDeleteLet's see where she lands when NDX finishes this run.
DeleteI find the best entry for UVXY is Vix below 18. Vix used to bottom in the 10-12 range but now has a new floor in the 15-18 range.
ReplyDeleteRussia's stock market drop of 38% yesterday is the largest one day drop for any major stock index in history. Larger than 1987.
ReplyDeleteSc,
ReplyDeleteare you looking for the SPX 3963--early this week--and rebound into the end of March---volatility is increasing every day?
Markets up I expect into 3rd week of March when rates raise.
DeleteSC, ever look at SPCE?
ReplyDeleteIt is an interesting chart though I'm not a fan of space tourism. Seems an excess, wasteful to me.
DeleteOil shares surging. Oil is probably going to leapfrog the resistance at $100 this week. Gap up
ReplyDeleteGUSH pushing hard on the $125 level that has been holding to back. GUSH spike here then settle
ReplyDeleteDRIP weekly not even oversold!!!
ReplyDeleteOil spike to $115 this week as Russia takes Kiev in a few days
ReplyDeleteTook profits OCGN sold $3.42.
ReplyDeleteLook to reload in March on dips
Deletewhat is your dip price
DeleteThere are other issues but the conflict in Ukraine seems mainly about control of energy to Europe front an economic standpoint.
ReplyDeleteprobably several reason Russia is doing this:
Delete1) They don't want another NATO country right at their border. In 1990 US & other NATO countries told Russia they would not expand NATO east of Germany. Since then NATO has added FOURTEEN countries east of Germany! Two of these border Russia.
2) US has more than a dozen biolabs in Ukraine
3) In 2014, the US with the help of local Ukrainian Nazi's ousted the democratically elected president and installed a right wing pro-West president.
Here's a pretty good summary which includes several points that the mainstream deliberately does not talk about. https://fair.org/home/what-you-should-really-know-about-ukraine/
GUSH chart has been posted to Twitter showing wedge with maturity up into August/September
ReplyDelete"New York state officials found the effectiveness of Pfizer’s vaccine against Covid infection plummeted from 68% to 12% for children aged 5 to 11 during the omicron surge."
ReplyDelete12% OMG
ReplyDeleteSCFebruary 14, 2022 at 11:06 AM
ReplyDelete"Oil shot up higher again. Oil strength especially end of month into first week of March."
Took profit sold RIG $3.60.
ReplyDeleteEventually RIG likely to trade towards $5 but I'll wait and see if we can get a good entry in March or April
DeleteXLE has hit the $72 target from the modeling. Exact time and price!!!!
ReplyDelete👍👍Good SC
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteI am just spit-balling here but if oil hits (105-110)---to ---(120-130). Normally the economy slows down --taking down the market--especially technology---we test lows SPX 4250 after Biden speaks tonight --we need to hold it ---UVXY gets closer to 20!
The oil does put a damper on SPX but it's resilient too
DeleteI took some profit on the XLE Calls today between $3 and $3.20. Up 70%
ReplyDeleteOil trading up to $106 a barrel today and should be strong a few more days but it will have some setbacks over the next 30 days. February I accumulated Oil aggressively and over next 30 days I plan to trade more actively.
ReplyDelete"The prohibitions of the Russia-related CAPTA Directive take effect beginning at 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on March 26, 2022. Accordingly, by 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on March 26, 2022, U.S. financial institutions must have closed any correspondent or payable-through account maintained for Sberbank all other entities listed in Annex 1 to the Russia-related CAPTA Directive, and all foreign financial institutions owned 50 percent or more by the foregoing. In addition, after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on March 26, 2022, U.S. financial institutions may not process transactions involving those institutions and must reject such transactions, unless exempt or authorized by OFAC"
ReplyDeleteAh ha, Russian sanctions do not go into effect until March 26th according to US treasury
ReplyDeleteFinancials crushed.
DeleteYes good point about banks
DeleteOil spiking to $110 overnight!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.westernjournal.com/look-kamala-harris-appears-mouth-joe-biden-said-iranian/?utm_source=Email&utm_medium=CTBreaking&utm_campaign=breaking&utm_content=conservative-tribune&ats_es=3a5edbc456899aacbafba6a32e94e63f
Deletelol thats funny
ReplyDeleteLol yes I forgot Biden was speaking last night took some profits early.
ReplyDeleteOil inch up this week, it'll settle next week, but $100 is now support.
ReplyDeleteDid Biden let slip a deal with Iran? Iranian Oil to hit markets??
ReplyDelete"Putin: Operation in Ukraine going according to plan"
ReplyDeleteSC--imho--I use exponential moving averages -I am noticed that on the QQQ and the NDX the 50 day and the 200 day M/A are getting close to crossing --does this make opening to the Down side---more possible?
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteBombing Nuclear power plants --The golden cross --on NDX and QQQ are now in full effect!
In very short term there can be down pressure due to crossing of the 50 and 200 Nasdaq daily.
ReplyDeleteHowever, the weekly is still a positive chart.
That's why I've suggested that we are likely to see whipsaws this year up and down.
OCGN!!!
ReplyDeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete