Wednesday, November 10, 2021
$SPX - SPX Cycle Chart
SPX Cycle is based on this chart going back to the beginning of the rally. During the run there were two periods of consolidation. 2014 to 2016 and then 2018 to 2020. Rather than continuation the next period of consolidation will end the rally from 2009. The rally is terminal. Monthly
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Finally I have posted the SPX Cycle Chart. There is also another chart the Cycle Model itself that will be posted and shows exactly how the rally will end.
ReplyDeletethank you! great post and great chart. Much appreciated.
DeleteThe rally is terminal:
ReplyDelete1. of, forming, or situated at the end or extremity
2. (of a disease) predicted to lead to death, especially slowly, incurable
:-)
DeleteThanks SC, looking forward to the how and when.
ReplyDeleteYes will have the second part coming. The Model has all the detail of the topping process.
Deletesc,
ReplyDeletewe should see one more up into the new infrastructure bill being signed --Biden --is having a hard time--he wants to make sure that the toys for Christmas are available--NDX is in a down trend ---- this may take a month or two --be nimble!
Yes, Biden down in the polls so he probably will want to come up with something positive.
DeleteLots to talk about on this chart. The rally from 2009 to the first consolidation in 2014 was about 5 years. The Middle rally 2 years. The current rally we are about 1.5 years.
ReplyDeleteBoth consolidation periods were about 2 years.
Because we are in a rally phase I rarely try to short it, but that time will come as momentum wanes.
ReplyDeleteBanks collapsed in 2009, 12 years ago. The economy collapsed last year.
ReplyDeletegood area to scale into next NG run north....or wait until Thursday report...hitting the 100sma might be best place for large bounce
ReplyDeleteBOIL
so far so good...
Deletesc
ReplyDeletesava ----dropping-----looks like 50 again
the big boys are going to play that sector, its most important sector in biotech, just one look at Biden and you know Alz, dementia and neuro pathway helpers will be big part of biotech, last frontier so to speak....
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteNew low on the day---imagine that!
we are still have another try at the highs sometime this week -early next week.
but once that is completed!
we should start to drop again.
I am guessing we may see the SPX cycle chart next week!
Market is getting hit because oil is retracing
ReplyDeletesc
ReplyDeletenext week there will be a-lot of these days --be prepared!
"Biden and Xi are set to hold a virtual meeting as soon as next week, Reuters reported a few hours ahead of the letter’s readout, citing a source familiar with the matter. In early October, CNBC reported the two leaders planned to hold such a meeting before the end of the year."
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteThere is more room on the ndx to go down --15300 to 15500 to go!
Agree that we are likely to see some turmoil as we approach the vaccine deadlines.
Delete"Most federal workers have until Nov. 22 to get immunized against Covid under the Biden administration’s order. Federal contractors previously had until Dec. 8, but the White House last week delayed that deadline until Jan. 4."
sc,
ReplyDeleteThere is growing possibility of a sizeable drop-next week!
The technology sector is ripe for it!
Be nimble!
SPTrader quote:
ReplyDeleteNovember 8, 2021
The price is now almost at the top of the multi-month Channel Up (4,735 is the limit peak currently) with the 1D chart overbought (RSI = 76.694, MACD = 61.260, ADX = 79.763). The 1D RSI hasn't been higher since September 2nd 2020, which saw a -10% correction. Currently the 1D MA50 is at 4,480 (on S&P futures) and rising. I expect the market to make the break after the CPI is released on Wednesday.
"Lots to talk about on this chart." Then do so.
ReplyDeleteSC, what about the consolidation of 2010-2012
ReplyDeleteThere is a period there as well but that period was at the start leading into the rally.
DeleteXBI seasonal strength is here, bounced off 4 hour 28 RSI
ReplyDeleteL LABU
sc,
ReplyDeleteplease Take a look Dow jones transport average ($DJT)
Does that look like a blow off top????
Please advise?
Yes I am getting bearish. In September I stated that SPX was in a down month but would become overbought. October I had said unlike September likely to be an up month. Also I said that the reopening event November 8th watch for a sell the news event. All this has been correct.
ReplyDeleteNow this looks bearish going into the first week of December. Tesla has been buoying SPX but all of a sudden a rival shows up, Musk has begun an exit strategy. Biden meeting Xi, what could go wrong. Vaccine Orders threatening a significant number of the workforce and productivity. And so this is a cliff of sorts and yes a drop into December looks probable. Though also a Christmas rally from early December looks also likely.
ReplyDeleteI'll have the second part of this coming next, the Cycle.
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteWe all would like see this chart---but you are not ready to release the information--Thanksgiving is next week!
This week could be down week --next week is slow and short!
so far no weakness--retail sales--could be a problem --no volatility---every one looking to short TSLA and buy RIVN
Musk just beginning to sell and so it is early in his exit strategy. Only 10% so far. So not a serious problem for the market yet. TSLA will likely continue higher. Musk has already distanced himself by moving from California to Texas. Once he sells about 50% he would be looking to leave the country.
DeleteI see Buffett has 40% of the portfolio in Apple. Seems a little dangerous?
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteIt seems to be weak or sector rotation, I don't see nothing except-inside days into December---the only aspect for keeping people trying to work is the market--but no-one wants to go into work--travel
Something is controlling the VIX--that stops any sell off from forming a meaningful pull back --matter of time --not to after the Holidays--in my opinion!
Universal income the end game I think. Yes we are seeing some evidence of this. People feel they don't need to work.
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteThere is more strength for tomorrow---Another spending bill was signed!
SC when do you think that cycle is over and for how long time
ReplyDeleteLast year VIX went over 80 but that was just on a continuation pattern. SPX was consolidating for continuation of the bull run from 2009.
DeleteThis chart is very simple but most people won't see it. The Cycle shows how the rally from 2009 will end.
So what I am saying with this chart is that we have seen a consolidation from 2018 to 2020. About 2 years. The next period will be similar. Volatile and plan for several years. Once that period ends SPX will plummet with VIX hitting 170 a test of 1987 crash for volatility.
I'll explain everything in detail with the Cycle. Once it's over, it is forever.
Interesting....consolidation for a couple years and then a massive, unrecoverable drop.
DeleteI wonder what else is predicted to happen in the next couple years which would precipitate such a drop?
Something that would irrecoverably damage the economy....
Something that would incapacitate Wall St and Main St alike...
Something that would paralyze central bankers and governments
Something that no amount of money printing could stem the tsunami of deflation about to commence....
What could it be? What could it be? I think I know the answer...
Thank you for Payday! It's going to get quite interesting. Let's talk more about this soon.
DeleteYes Dunnster monetary policy has all but disappeared. All that is left is fiscal policy now.
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteWhen do you see the volatility beginning if anything ---it looks like Spx 5000---at least give us a time frame--1 month- 3 months --6 months --1 year --5 years!
We have been waiting a long time for that response???
sc,
ReplyDeleteTelling us that you will post a chart on it --is just pushing the can down the road---and I have been following this board for over ten years---Please give us some direction!
sc,
ReplyDeletelooking like a double top here ---UVXY----could be a move here -
starting a position--we could sell off into December.
It would be helpful --if you post that SPX chart?
I will. After a trending market bull the first dip is always the toughest to time and anticipate, then it becomes easier.
ReplyDeleteExpect similar to 2018 Volmageddon to start with. A sudden drop to start the Cycle and to begin a volatile phase in SPX.
Oil has been weakening for weeks and that is a clue that SPX could also dip.
But it's still early and even a dip here may not be the start of anything yet in the Cycle.
sc,
ReplyDeleteHow early--1 month- 3 months --6 months --1 year --5 years?
Timing is everything?
sc,
ReplyDeletedan said it best:
https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1460070685615792129?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1460070685615792129%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nationalreview.com%2Fcorner%2Fsaturday-night-live-had-inflation-down-cold-in-the-70s%2F
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteSPX 4660--is the line in the sand---closes below that number--we can sell off into early December!
Kendal---has 5050 to 5160---new target
This could be interesting???
sava--back below 50 ---love those puts--?
ReplyDeleteVIX futures still in a steep contango. It takes a long time for fear to dissipate from a panic such as we saw last year.
ReplyDeletehttp://vixcentral.com/
sc,
ReplyDeleteall I am looking for is UVXY--to 16.50
That is not out of the Question
Remember all federal employees must be vaccinated by 11/22 or they questionable employment?
Hi SC, I'm curious if you are still holding your ocgn that you purchased at 15.30? Are you still expecting a move lower in the 5.00+ range?
ReplyDeleteI do have another chart to post on OCGN. No I don't have it, but I am waiting to get in again soon. Vaccines are still a good trade.
DeleteYes that is what I am expecting
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteUVXY--bought at 14.85 yesterday---sold half at 15.35---the way it is moving should see 16.50 to short term---we are due for a pull back!
SC, do you expect the vix is going down from 15
ReplyDeleteEventually yes, but I'll post a VIX chart right now and can explain
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteThere is alot of speculation of Spx 4500 early next --new fed chairman appointment ---could do that ---the only index holding us up is the NDX
Do you see volatility here?
New chart posted!
ReplyDelete