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Tuesday, March 16, 2021

$VIX - Long Term View

Interestingly VIX is near the 50 monthly moving average. It has been rising since the year 2017. Monthly

106 comments:

  1. SC

    bought both UVXY and DRIP

    This don't make sense ---not to buy both --should Be 50points away from a top --probably followed by a pull back---leaving some powder to average in

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes just starting to play. Keeping some dry powder.

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  2. sc,

    now Kendall and Demark -- have SPX 4009--Both have the same number----the end of March and being of April --should be an experience to see!

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    Replies
    1. Month end does look interesting for timing SPX and VIX.

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    2. What do you mean? A low in sp for end of March?

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    3. First half of April looks bearish

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    4. Yes but is that the big drop or your expecting big drop in august

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  3. DRIP update posted to twitter. @Cyclicalanalyst

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  4. charles--

    The top is between now and SPX 4022---top of the channel--to we get up there ----nobody knows--the future ----best we can do is Educated Guess---we should pull back ---from 3/3 to today --steep upward trend---this is normally followed by a pull back!

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  5. Sc what is price target on drip

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    Replies
    1. DRIP I think is up into April. $14 to start in March a pullback and up to $16 in April.

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  6. SC do you think vix will see 50 this year?

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    Replies
    1. Markets gonna drop big in summer
      Or September that drop could be
      35 to 40 percent

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    2. In coming years VIX will be massive. For this year there will be large swings in VIX and fast.

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    3. Starting to look at those charts Sami

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  7. sc,
    I know a day does not make a difference --a sell off into the fed meeting is always expected

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  8. DRIP held it's own today considering Oil bounced in the morning. Oil dives it's game on.

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  9. I did buy some RIOT after the FED. It perked up and I see it as a stimulus trade.

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    Replies
    1. I think it'll likely see a higher high over $80.

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    2. For Bitcoin lovers lol. Reason for the trade is simple. Bitcoin made a fresh high in March but RIOT hasn't done it yet. So RIOT seems cheap relative to where Bitcoin already is.

      Same logic I used to identify the recent RIG trade...

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  10. sc

    uvxy at 6.60----any buys yet

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not interested yet, but I am watching.

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    2. What is looking more interesting about UVXY is that finally it is dropping with very small moves in SPX. Capitulation.

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  11. sc,

    This is a process---I know that now---when this is finally bottomed ---the SPX ---will have topped---Correct?

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    Replies
    1. Yes exactly it's a process. UVXY is coming down on very small incremental moves in SPX. Yes they should line up closely.

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  12. sc-

    -whether long term or short term--that will be determined in the future!

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  13. Sc are you buying back kodk ?

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  14. sami--

    closer to 7 bucks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I had bought the KODK for a technical bounce and took profits.

      Now I'm undecided about it. I keep an eye but I think there are higher priorities coming forward.

      Delete
  15. SC, you mentioned a while back about high oil prices pressuring SPX. I’m assuming with your recent drip trade, we will also see Spx now move up freely?

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    Replies
    1. On the way up above $60 SPX and Oil were moving inversely. Below $60 they were correlated.

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  16. OIL down for fifth consecutive day

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  17. sc,

    I am accumulating sept calls on UVXY---

    I still think we will hit SPX--4009---

    They are just too cheap to say NO!

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  18. UVXY---whether it bottoms at 5 or 6 short term ---will not make much of a difference for a September call to purchase at these low costs

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  19. Jesus ... nice call on drip SC....

    you've been on fire lately...

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    Replies
    1. Hahahaha I like the chop! This is my favorite market type lol.

      Thank you!

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  20. The contango on vix futures is whats killing uvxy mostly...

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    Replies
    1. Sammy KODK to me is searching for a level to find it's footing. Let's wait as it settles.

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    2. Horrible earnings call on Kodk...

      It might have changed the longer term technicals

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    3. Yes and there are issues without a doubt. Having said that the future is mostly about the company's transition into pharmaceuticals. So let's see as it develops.

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  21. DRIP continues to look good. We have a clear breakout of the wedge.

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  22. Crude plunging!

    SCMarch 16, 2021 at 1:03 PM

    "DRIP held it's own today considering Oil bounced in the morning. Oil dives it's game on."

    ReplyDelete
  23. sc,

    Has anyone looked at the charts --if we break through SPX 3900 again?

    we are getting close to that?

    we

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  24. Sc

    Can you share you s&p 500 model ... what we should expect in the next year ?

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    Replies
    1. The model is still positive. SPX higher but with pullbacks.

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    2. SPX is still rising but it is also becoming more unstable with each year as VIX is preparing to run to 170 in coming years.

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    3. This year SPX is choppy. The addition of Tesla in December is one of the factors that makes SPX more volatile.

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  25. Sami,

    no one can share model with you --it is always changing --computer algorithm ---it can be changed and altered by the head bankers.

    Best we can do is an educated guess!

    ReplyDelete
  26. sc,

    Has anyone looked at the charts --if we break through SPX 3900 again?

    we are getting close to that?

    ReplyDelete
  27. Replies
    1. Last week DRIP formed a reversal pattern on the weekly. DRIP has consolidated for several days and likely to continue higher this week.

      Delete
  28. sc,

    you see new highs on SPX into the end of the month?

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    Replies
    1. SPX is choppy. It could test the 50 dma around 3,850 but yes it'll get a new high also.

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  29. Financials are down today. That's a red flag for this week.

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  30. sc,

    Vix is in a bottoming position--are you expecting the VIX to stay below 20 for a while correct?

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    Replies
    1. VIX is bottoming but that could take a few months.

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  31. VIX---looks like 15 to 16???

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    Replies
    1. 18 is where the gap is and so it may bounce at that level, but yes that is possible.

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  32. sc,

    Looks like sideways trading--two days of testimonies

    --small volatility and then up

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    Replies
    1. Yes the Oil drop should benefit SPX as it gets factored in and of course stimulus checks coming tomorrow.

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  33. Once again Financials gave a good signal yesterday and we see some sellers today.

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  34. Oil took another leg down overnight. DRIP very nice gains!

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  35. Are you waiting on 14 to cash out of drip sc ?

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    Replies
    1. Always exit early in a choppy market. GUSH is already near the 50 dma so we're getting close.

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    2. Do you have an exit price target for Drip?

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    3. Pretty soon maybe tomorrow

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  36. Better make the money while taxes are low... They are coming for your money!

    "Wealth tax, estate tax, capital gains"

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  37. SC,

    I know the Vix is bottoming --are you expecting a move to VIX 50 or better sometime this year (late summer or winter season) ???

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    Replies
    1. Once it bottoms yes it's going to spike.

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  38. sc,

    It is going to be hard to identify a bottom--manipulation is all over the place.

    is there a time frame??

    or is that too much to ask?

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    Replies
    1. It's a capitulation so it'll be obvious when it happens. I was thinking May/June. We'll see

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  39. Crude making a bounce overnight but still expect lower lows. Not a lot lower in March. Definitely in April.

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  40. I'm looking for strong bounce into friday

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  41. kodak,

    Back at 7.5---there is a option play here???

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    Replies
    1. I've been thinking about whether it's worth doing something there. I'm going to look at it in detail today.

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  42. XBI pointing towards 95, not all at once...

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  43. Replies
    1. at what price do you plan to buy back in SC?

      Thanks

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    2. I'm looking at GUSH entry soon. Chart is posted. DRIP reenter in the $10.

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  44. I see Crude is holding higher than Tuesday's low. That is good reason to exit DRIP.

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