Yes agree. It'll be choppy for weeks next. Oil stocks appear to be getting ready to surge up, and it looks like this is going to mark a top in the market.
SC is my witness I said last week that the black swan will arrive from Italy, the fall of the Italian government will cause a carnage in the stock exchanges.
Only those who know European politics well know what it can mean for a dominant Germany with the desire to dominate Europe, sending people to Italy to vote ahead of time, that is, not in 2023 but in 2021. The right has already said that not wanting the charity from Europe and the recovery fund can also keep it. This would send all of Merkel's projects into a tailspin, there is a high risk that everything is about to implode.
That was the spike in VIX I was waiting for. Got out of uvxy a little early, but i was holding the bag for a longer then I wanted to. Usually when VIX spokes like this, it’s a one day event. Let’s see
I follow this guy. He's very subjective on the market environment Investing.com Discussion S&P.
SP_Trader 6 hours ago Despite today's selling, the 1D Channel Up since November 9th remains intact (RSI = 53.366, MACD = 32.330, ADX = 32.237) with the 1D MA50 supporting exactly on its Higher Low trend-line at 3,715. Even though it appears that today's low could be the bottom as the last two 4H candles are trading above it, a marginal crossing of the 4H MA200 (3,745) similar to December 21st and January 4th is possible as the Fed Rate Decision which is a few minutes away (and the subsequent Press Conference) is expected to deliver the usual high volatility. As long as the Fed don't diverge from their usual low rate for long reassurances, the next target for the 1D Channel Up is a Higher High around 3,900. Unless the 1D MA50 breaks, in which case the market could pressure for a 1D MA200 test.
I think exactly the same as you, Gary Savage has pushed beyond the sky with the forecast of a Nasdaq at 18000 by March as the last peak of the bubble, but I don't think they will have this strength.
The story of Gamestop with what is underneath in terms of exchange operations between retail and big sharks, will not end well, measures will be taken soon and it will not do the market good.
Here, in the meantime, there are consultations by the President of the Republic in which the parties decide whether to make another government with those who are already there by finding another majority or to go to the vote. This is to get the black swan to go to vote in Italy, if it doesn't happen, it will rise again.
"Short Interest in World’s Biggest ETF Plunges to Decade Lows"
"Fueled by vaccine hopes and reflationary signals, short interest in the $334 billion SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker SPY) now sits at just 2% of shares outstanding, according to IHS Markit Ltd. data."
Oil is still holding well. GUSH is looking to challenge the previous peak last June.
ReplyDeleteGUSH may be preparing for massive gap up.
ReplyDeleteThis would then exhaust the move.
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteThat means drip goes to 8 to 10---correct!
Yes
DeleteFor now I've taken GUSH on the technicals.
DeleteI might do an option trade later, not yet, but once this matures. For such a position I'd want to see DRIP touching 50 dma.
https://youtu.be/OvE9zJgm8OY
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteoptions on that ETF GUSH-are expensive ----cheaper to puts on drip!
Thanks yes good thinking.
Deletesc, with your $6 to $7 UVXY target, the trade from 10/28/20 $21.55 would be down 75%. do you just sell now and by back at $6?
ReplyDeleteNo, I'm looking to build a position on a dip for UVXY. Possibly this may correlate to the GUSH move. So this is shaping up quite nicely.
DeleteBuck was correct again!
ReplyDelete"Italy’s Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte resigns as political crisis escalates"
;-)
DeleteGUSH gapping higher as Yellen is installed
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeletei am thinking --we have two or three weeks before a major fail of the Market ---people are slowly liquidating positions now.
Any opinion on the Time frame on a pull back or is gush's top the top of the market! (looks like March)
Please advise?
Yes agree. It'll be choppy for weeks next. Oil stocks appear to be getting ready to surge up, and it looks like this is going to mark a top in the market.
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeletesince 1/21/21---the advance / decline line has been steadily selling off even with market hitting new highs -
Normally this not good --Just confirmation of position selling.
wait for the pullback---but no one what is in the mind of JYellen
???
Sold KODK $11.80.
ReplyDeleteI thought for sure that gap from Dec 6 would be filled before it went up.
ReplyDeleteKODK coming into critical timing.
Deletehere comes the volatility
ReplyDeleteVix up 20 percent and uvxy don't move so something is wrong with this piece of shit tommy
ReplyDeleteThe fact UVXY isn't moving tells us the timing is not there yet for volatility.
DeleteI agree 1 more high in spx perhaps
Delete3920 then 8 to 10 percent correction ape should see 148 to 151 1st then 133 then 160 plus
Meant to say apple not ape
DeleteFinally the action is about to pick up.
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeletewe are still waiting for 1 more high
Lou --picked a little INVU at .11
Any chance of kodk hitting 15s ?
ReplyDeleteI think it is getting risky
DeleteDemark---had 3907---lets see what the fed does?
ReplyDelete1 more high
DeleteGUSH looking excellent. Strength is evident. SPX down 50. GUSH down 70 cents...
ReplyDeleteVery good confirmation in this trade now. I will wait another week maybe and add GUSH and then also plan options position.
It will be explosive GUSH moonshot I think.
YANG looks cheap---waiting for 10
ReplyDeletewe need to close above SPX 3820- or next support are spx 3770 then Spx 3700 trend lines are clear!
ReplyDeleteSC is my witness I said last week that the black swan will arrive from Italy, the fall of the Italian government will cause a carnage in the stock exchanges.
ReplyDeleteOnly those who know European politics well know what it can mean for a dominant Germany with the desire to dominate Europe, sending people to Italy to vote ahead of time, that is, not in 2023 but in 2021. The right has already said that not wanting the charity from Europe and the recovery fund can also keep it. This would send all of Merkel's projects into a tailspin, there is a high risk that everything is about to implode.
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteThis is a big sell--off
no advice!
In my opinion because the market had been boring for some time it is susceptible to fake moves. It can go one way then the other being the real move.
ReplyDeleteI'm very pleased KODK was great and somehow I've sold KODK April $5 puts today at nice profit with volatility expansion.
ReplyDeleteI'll wait. Filter out the noise and then the real move which will be the most significant
ReplyDeleteThat was the spike in VIX I was waiting for. Got out of uvxy a little early, but i was holding the bag for a longer then I wanted to. Usually when VIX spokes like this, it’s a one day event. Let’s see
ReplyDeleteI think its safe to say VIX will probably not close that 18 gap for a looong time....
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteMy thoughts are two days more with the VIX--it breaks 45--
there are alot more problems that the markets are not telling us!
Lets see what tomorrow brings?
I follow this guy. He's very subjective on the market environment Investing.com Discussion S&P.
ReplyDeleteSP_Trader
6 hours ago
Despite today's selling, the 1D Channel Up since November 9th remains intact (RSI = 53.366, MACD = 32.330, ADX = 32.237) with the 1D MA50 supporting exactly on its Higher Low trend-line at 3,715. Even though it appears that today's low could be the bottom as the last two 4H candles are trading above it, a marginal crossing of the 4H MA200 (3,745) similar to December 21st and January 4th is possible as the Fed Rate Decision which is a few minutes away (and the subsequent Press Conference) is expected to deliver the usual high volatility. As long as the Fed don't diverge from their usual low rate for long reassurances, the next target for the 1D Channel Up is a Higher High around 3,900. Unless the 1D MA50 breaks, in which case the market could pressure for a 1D MA200 test.
"objective" not subjective
DeleteThe line in the sand is spx-3735 to 3725--close below this level on Friday--and the weekly trend reverses---could be caused by Margin calls.
ReplyDeleteWe still have room for a pop in this market!
Spx 3900 is possible!
The market will tell you by Fridays close!
the trend will be down
I think exactly the same as you, Gary Savage has pushed beyond the sky with the forecast of a Nasdaq at 18000 by March as the last peak of the bubble, but I don't think they will have this strength.
DeleteThe story of Gamestop with what is underneath in terms of exchange operations between retail and big sharks, will not end well, measures will be taken soon and it will not do the market good.
ReplyDeleteI agree... masses are awake now finally...
DeleteWhoever loses, if he doesn't sell he doesn't lose, ok, whoever earns if he doesn't sell doesn't earn. To be or not to be, a Hamletic doubt.
ReplyDeleteWould robin hood market psychology want to get away with it? If this happens, soon the casino could close or change paradigm, what would be better?
ReplyDeleteHere, in the meantime, there are consultations by the President of the Republic in which the parties decide whether to make another government with those who are already there by finding another majority or to go to the vote. This is to get the black swan to go to vote in Italy, if it doesn't happen, it will rise again.
ReplyDeleteSee what I meant about the whipssaws and fakeouts
ReplyDeleteThe market is starting to move more aggressively though and that tells us a larger move is developing...
ReplyDeleteup or down????
ReplyDeleteChoppy and down first.
ReplyDeleteuvxy ---is still at 13????
ReplyDeleteHope u sold urs
DeleteUVXY is slowly starting to improve. The thing about volatility is people always think down, but volatility is a knife that slices both ways.
ReplyDeleteCCL filled the first gap, but there are more...
ReplyDeletewhen do you expect the gap at $16.20 & $14.16 (back to No 2020) to be filled, if possible. Thanks
DeleteI think those gaps in CCL filled in summer most likely.
DeleteBig and fast trade is coming out of all this. That is why I'm waiting very patiently.
ReplyDeleteAs usual it gets choppy first and confuses traders as it starts to wobble.
Sc what is road map for spx, r u expecting choppy higher in to mid feb
ReplyDeleteSC, at what price level you will buy KODK again? Thanks
ReplyDeleteI have a plan, but for now flat on KODK. Will let you know.
DeleteVIX looking to come down a bit. 29 or so
ReplyDeleteUVXY $12
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteare you buying in at that level?
Citron Research one of the most prominent short only firms has switched to long only.
ReplyDeleteBears capitulation en masse. Incredibly bearish over longer term with a caveat in shorter term.
So what exactly are you saying are you saying that the market's going up
ReplyDeleteclarity would be nice?
ReplyDeleteshort term --is up
ReplyDeleteLonger term ---is down
correct?
Lol nobody nows shit lol
ReplyDeleteBastards Closed it right on the 50 ma. I knew they'd do that just to make it interesting monday morning
ReplyDeleteKoodoos to the reddit crowd. Exposing the market manipulation that goes on day after day. I hope their actions make it more fair
ReplyDeleteIt was satisfying lol
DeleteShort interest in SPY only 2%.
ReplyDelete"Short Interest in World’s Biggest ETF Plunges to Decade Lows"
"Fueled by vaccine hopes and reflationary signals, short interest in the $334 billion SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker SPY) now sits at just 2% of shares outstanding, according to IHS Markit Ltd. data."
sc,
ReplyDeleteBasically your waiting for the dust to settle--
you are like the rest of us--waiting for direction?
OK?
Let me show you.
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeletewhat does that mean???
always Parables!
New chart posted!
ReplyDeletesmm panel
ReplyDeletesmm panel
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