Wednesday, January 6, 2021
CCL - Rough Seas
As anticipated the reopening trades took a hit in December and the reopening is having further setback in January. UK lockdown, mutations, and PCR testing restricting travel when the model predicted a setback.
Carnival came close to hitting the $25 target in December. Raise the target to $26 for April.
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Our price targets and timing is working beautifully for these reopening trades.
ReplyDeleteNice and easy money...
ReplyDeleteThe democrats ---took the race.
ReplyDeleteThe market is flying-
Looks like we are off to SPX 3900
As long as the fed can buy ETF's
The market will go higher
It does not matter--even Covid- 19
This market is way out of whack This gonna be a monster sell off
DeleteBig drop is common
ReplyDeleteDo you think INVU can be $1.00 before the sell off?
DeleteMaybe 3530 3610 then 4070
ReplyDeleteThis could be --one hell of a blow off top!
ReplyDeletebut i will still wait to Spx 3900
Scared money dont make money
ReplyDeleteyou taught me that!
ReplyDeleteSPX moving ever so slowly. Same as 2016 comparison.
ReplyDeleteUVXY coming down but again slowly.
ReplyDeleteThey are rioting in the capital!
ReplyDeleteUvxy is down!
Does that make sense!
This is an algorithm
It does not care about politics or Covid-
Market is always right
DeleteIt makes sense in that SPX is moving like a snail. Volatility is subdued at the moment.
DeleteRemember quiet markets lead to Volatile markets.
UVXY made a pop there where it has for a month now. Rioters stormed the capitol.
ReplyDeleteVIX weekly. The 200 ma is at the 18!
ReplyDeleteSc what rbu expecting , have we topped
ReplyDeleteNot quite yet. SPX still rising but just very slowly.
DeleteThe same thing ---we all ---a blow off---top with in the next week or two.
ReplyDeleteTqqq is doing a 2 for 1 stock split
ReplyDeleteTrade cautiously
Thanks Louis!
DeleteIn this increasing volatility market what I suspect is that we would only see 4 year terms. No President would be able to survive past 4 years as the VIX moves to 170. Republican nor Democrat. The people won't be happy with anybody. You can see the fear showing through as the people become increasingly anxious about their future.
ReplyDeleteUVXY is almost there. It's approaching the change of card. That is the turn where you can buy and hold UVXY over the long term. We have to wait but it's coming. At that moment when it turns it'll act very aggressively and that gives us the opportunity for trades.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteThey might split 1st them skumbags
DeleteYes probably
DeleteShorted tqqq 178
ReplyDeleteShorted tqqq 181
ReplyDeleteSc r u still expecting top Jan 20 or so
ReplyDeleteSeems that we need to get beyond this Election drama to put in a high
DeleteSC, if ccl goes down to $ 17 for February then sp too?, drop -13 to -18 % for sp?
ReplyDeleteNot yet but we can see that this year
Deletesc,
ReplyDeletewhere is the top????
Sc when abouts are you expecting vix 50 ?
ReplyDeleteAnd when for the vix 170 ?
What could be the cause for such an event ?
VIX 50 I think is coming quite soon.
DeleteWhen? Feb march
DeleteVIX 170 on war with China that is years away
ReplyDeleteChina would never start a war they no better
DeleteEven the threats of war would do it. USA and China threatening each other with war.
Deletehttps://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/president-boards-e-4b-command-post-flying-to-nmcc-abilene-tx?fbclid=IwAR3SNCOD81oySeeYmPX-HdxVole-iXd8LkI6qGwlgMoINec_CgJQ0qYFrOA
ReplyDeleteThat could
ReplyDeleteMilitary coup underway
ReplyDeleteThat will do it
ReplyDeleteI knew something was off. Ahhh I see it. Oh my...
ReplyDeleteI'll tell you a secret.
ReplyDeleteSc , to me looks like it is over, how will he do it alone, even the military generals are not with him
ReplyDeleteI know kingwood has been saying trump was in TX
ReplyDeleteLin wood
ReplyDeleteSC You're a tech guy. The measured move on bitcoin has to be close. What do you think?
ReplyDeleteI'll update thanks!
DeleteIf vix 50 then sp how much will go down?
ReplyDelete100 points
DeleteInvu on fire 🔥
ReplyDeleteCrnt on fire
ReplyDeleteRmbs on fire
ReplyDeleteInsg I own looks awsome
ReplyDeleteShorted tqqq at 188
ReplyDeleteINVU----went to .25 cents 3 times on the money----congratulations!
ReplyDeleteTrump will have to lay low for a few days to smooth things over
ReplyDeleteCongress can be dysfunctional for years but the people are not allowed one day
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/starseedastro/status/1347382652236492800
ReplyDeleteSC, listen to this , yesterday, they said Pelosi laptop is stolen, it was correct, if interview is correct, something big is coming, no wonder democrats want to impeach him on Thursday, looks like a long short right now
ReplyDeletetim bost, financial astrologer, two days ago said, this thing is not over, something big
jan 20-21
Hmmmm wiki leaks...
DeleteThe dems a scared shit
ReplyDeleteGBTC HIT 48.65 WOW
SC, you shared your thoughts on uvxy and Vix, and are patiently waiting on gaps to be filled before averaging down. I was able to sell on the pops and average down to keep up.
ReplyDeleteCandid question, how are you able to sit on uvxy from the $20 range without averaging down, or cutting losses?
Took profits on that. It wasn't doing much at the time. I don't use stops the way some do. If it doesn't make sense the way it's trading then sell win or lose and wait for the next entry. In that case did manage small profit.
DeleteIt'll run though
DeleteI must have missed the post when you sold. I think most were under the impression that you were still holding. Thanks
DeleteI mentioned UVXY on my twitter account and someone replied with a warning that it's leveraged so it loses value against VIX over time. I suspect all of you folks here already knew that. So I took a look at the daily charts of UVXY, VXX, and VIX going back a couple of years to see how bad the decay is, and sure enough, UVXY looks pretty bad. I know that if you're trading UVXY and planning to hold for only a few days, the decay is not a problem. But longer than that I'd go with VXX.
ReplyDeleteIt depends. When in contango yes there is decay working against UVXY. However, in backwardation it is the opposite.
ReplyDeleteSo let's look at the curve. January the contango is steep, but then it levels off.
http://vixcentral.com
The fear should settle down as we get past this Election drama, but we're still in a classic demise.
Deletethanks, SC. I hadn't considered that it was contango that causes UVXY to decay. That's good to know. Also thanks for that website!
Delete"A World Health Organization (WHO) team due to investigate the origins of Covid-19 in the city of Wuhan has been denied entry to China"
ReplyDeleteThe Italian government must collapse and we are almost there, the fear that they will elect the right in Italy. it will bring Europe and the financial powers to sell all the BTP ITALIA as they did in 2011 at the time of Berlusconi with Merkel who made him resign. Out of BTPs, Italian banks will collapse and the spread will rise to 500. IF Italy does this, everything will collapse.
ReplyDeleteMerkel cannot afford to have a right-wing government in Italy that does not follow her directives like the current left one. Salvini could light a dangerous fuse and set a bad example to other European sovereignists and make the entire socialist political system currently in Europe go haywire. To force the hand of politics, Merkel usually requires its banks to sell Italian debt en masse, thus raising the spread and drowning ITALY. With fear of this, they will try to prevent Salvini from being elected. "Italians, if you vote Salvini I will blow up the banks and make you poor". This is Merkel.
ReplyDeleteIn Italy governments, council presidents, politicians, electoral methods have passed and changed, but Merkel is always there. You seem to be in CHINA, where the democracy of alternation is. The world is becoming socialist, as if socialism has brought wealth and prosperity. At DAVOS in 2001 they had decided something that they are now implementing, do you remember the Global information technology report ”with the inclusion of the GREAT RESET?
ReplyDeleteCovid has certainly helped them to establish what they had set for DAVOS in 2001. Financial and technological powers have made pacts to close the peoples at home and try to cancel private property, make everything back to the STATE that controls the currency with a digital one to keep people's savings under control.
ReplyDeleteAre you "buck"?
DeleteOur friend from Italy. Thank you!
DeleteDid you see this about a Grand Deal with Russia?
ReplyDelete"Germany’s Merkel ‘open’ to producing Russian Covid vaccine in the EU"
Yes, I'm Buck ... From Italy, yes, a country that if today went to vote, the right would win, but they don't let us vote, our president Mattarella, in every government crisis, instead of sending the vote, asks the government to make a reshuffle, change some names and always start again on the left, without ever starting over by going to vote and this is because Merkel wants it so. We are in bad shape in Italy with this dominant Germany.
ReplyDeleteNo, the Russian Sputnik does not use it in Europe, only Pfizer the Moderna and Astrazeneca.Germany, as usual, does as it wants and has made direct treaties with the vaccine industries without going through Brussels, they have more vaccine than anyone, here they command everything. By now they no longer need tanks to Germany, but with the power of the economy they command everything the same.
ReplyDeleteThank you very much Buck! I remember your warnings last year. You were spot on.
ReplyDeleteSeems the problem everywhere is the same. Big government everywhere has run wild.
ReplyDeletesc, yo still think more decay in uvxy, vixy and vxx. i saw chart, where the vix is in corner, ready to spring out
ReplyDeleteYes the chart is getting ripe but one thing I've been waiting for is the VIX to get oversold. Even before the virus panic it wasn't oversold. The best charts are simple. This will be the best entry for UVXY when VIX gets oversold.
DeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteAny opinion on the FANG stocks? FB, TWTR, AMZN seem hell bent on alienating 1/2 the American population this weekend!
Stupid is as stupid does
Good call! They have been looking weak since the summer. FB is the worst of those. TWTR is censoring now. So much for freedom of speech. AMZN has a huge triangle.
DeleteKeep an eye on BABA too. The chart is getting ugly.
guys,
ReplyDeletePlease clear this up!--we know a big drop is coming?
Is UVXY a vehicle to use?
DRIP is cheap here too?
Nothing can beat volatility over time but yes good point. We can have fun with GUSH and DRIP.
DeleteI developed a model for DRIP. A big gap down would enter.
DeleteMore than Oil it's the rise of electric vehicles that will make this a trade to watch. Inverse
DeleteSc uvxy , how high will it go
ReplyDeleteI was thinking of buying debit spread for March for uvxy
ReplyDeleteGuys,
ReplyDeleteJune 18 calls are cheap?
I will accumulate calls --
Drip ---i can't even June calls yet
There is something coming
We don't know when?
Buck,
ReplyDeleteis see the same thing ---everyone is watching a deterioration of our political systems--watch and see?
get some popcorn and enjoy the show!
June 18c are they fir uvxy, what stije
ReplyDeleteyes ---any strike to 15 will be in the money on the next big pull back --everyone is waiting for an extreme---this extreme will be provided by politicians at some time in the future.
ReplyDeleteYour guess is as good as mine--
The big banks have stopped given politics money!
The dollar is risen
Who knows?
We are the luckiest traders in history to be in position to trade this. We were just fortunate to be born at the right time.
ReplyDeleteSCOctober 8, 2020 at 6:25 AM
"It's showtime! Ya gotta love this!!!"
Sc what does it mean
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteyou really should clarify --you ideas on the Market.
The whole show is reaching a crescendo.
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteThe pinnacle is at the January 20th --soon!
So we will go up till 20th?
ReplyDeleterose,
ReplyDeleteno one knows ---it is a political game --that does not end well!
Take it day by day -- and look to volatility indexes for guidance--we cannot predict the future.
But for a politics ---it is a rocky road ahead!
Yup, nobody knows
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeletewhen will you post the drip road map!
Yes plan is coming. DRIP still coming down further.
DeleteSc,
ReplyDeletehow far down ---10---- to ---15----to---- 18
Tommy what the heck are you talkin about
ReplyDeletedrip,
ReplyDeletethe inverse oil stock---it just breaking new lows---i am just trying to find out a bottom--I would like to know?
it just looks cheap!
ReplyDelete3 years ---it has never been at this price?
ReplyDeleteScalp DRIP soon. $18 to $21.
DeleteLarger trades later. I'm looking at some option plays with GUSH and DRIP.
DeleteNeeds to consolidate first. Scalp for now.
DeleteSc ---they will not allow option trades on drip---I was looking June----crazy ---they stopped me from purchasing--- -maybe too far out!
ReplyDeleteThere are a couple very specific trades I'm looking to do later other than that will trade the etfs.
DeleteLarge decline into Jan feb
ReplyDeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete