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Friday, December 4, 2020

SVXY - Lights, Camera....Action

There is going to be action in volatility coming soon, and it is time to watch this closely. The fact SVXY has recovered so little (half it's losses) compared to SPX confirms that Volatility remains king. Daily

44 comments:

  1. Many levels are converging on the SVXY chart and it is doing this as we approach the 1 year anniversary of the top January 20, 2020.

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    1. January 20, 2021 is the US Presidential Inauguration!

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  2. Watching this develop very closely

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  3. sc,

    If I understand this right---the market should go up into January 20th

    or the day SVXY hits 45---correct???

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    1. It's tricky because the highs and lows for volatility tend to come practically at the same time. It's early.

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  4. Somebody call blackrock - SC posted a new chart!

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  5. we discovered --the black rock BOT

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  6. The symmetry on this is amazing. It's a gigantic diamond that has formed over 2 years time.

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    1. Perfection looks simple when performed by the master...Thank you SC, great observation as many times before!

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  7. Just over a year ago I started to think about a particular move and how to play it. I have the parameters for the trade. It's just a matter of waiting for the right moment to use it.

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  8. KODK meanwhile has closed up three weeks in a row. It started to trend up right after the MAGA rally. Up again next week and that would make it 4 weeks which would be the longest run since 2019.

    It has golden cross on daily and next week will flirt with golden cross on weekly. Very impressive rising slope on the weekly 50.

    Also it was up last month. So plenty of encouraging signs there.

    However, while a nice pop, there is not enough there to confirm the big move up is ready.

    Next week may be a good spot to take some profits if it is in the $8's.

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  9. So I took a look at VIX and SPX. Year to date SPX is up 14.5%. Not bad.

    Year to date VIX is up a whopping 50.87%.

    Now the year is not over, but this was surprising.

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  10. Vix is still so high. It could have been 8 to 10 , why

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  11. SC, what are your thoughts short term (1-2 weeks) for the markets and uvxy? I’m not sure VIX is ready to fill the gap to 18 just yet. However, that could change Sunday night if we gap up for no apparent reason. Vix and uvxy have been holding up pretty well, considering all things.

    I’m thinking we dip before moving higher. Maybe uvxy $13-14

    Thoughts?

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    1. UVXY is getting very close to a turn up. I'd like to see how it does around December 16th the day it moves to CBOE.

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  12. I'm glad to see someone paying attention to this area. The chart is an acknowledgement that SVXY has not yet 'bottomed'. It may well be printing a path at two degrees. The higher degree being huge (drop in 2018). Historically it has always pulled the market down to a level where SVXY can recover. Could be more than one attempt to accomplish this which will make for an exceedingly tricky market. Stuart Davies

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    1. SC - FYI: We have referenced your article in our blog as it is exactly the same item we have been discussing this year. It was pleasant to see we were not alone in our assessment. Stuart Davies

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  13. SC, if svxy is going to 45, the S&P is going to 4000?

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  14. Oh my



    Federal agency finds no wrongdoing in Kodak loan: report

    Published on reuters 49 mins ago




    Should see a huge pop come tommorow....

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  15. Sc...

    Are you selling today or holding ?

    I'm guessing there will be a ton of short covering today

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    1. I'm holding KODK. Not selling a share. This is gap and go. I think this will run up into January.

      It's still cheap. At least into $20's.

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    2. This is huge.

      The inspector general for the U.S. International Development Finance Corp. the agency administering the $765 million loan to Kodak has found no issue.

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    3. From the Kodak website the company states that once fully operational Kodak Pharmaceuticals would have the capacity at Eastman Business Park to produce up to 25 percent of active pharmaceutical ingredients.

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    4. 25% market share of the US pharmaceutical market

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  16. I think I would agree...

    The entire market cap for kodak as of fridays closing was only 350 million or there abouts...


    surely with all this news... it will at least have a 1 billion dollar market cap soon... at the very least

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    1. Exactly! Tiny market cap and that is why it gives massive leverage.

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    2. Pharmaceuticals hottest sector on the board!

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  17. sc-


    sold my calls on KODK--sold early took profit

    on to my next position

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    1. Excellent! Nice profits!

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    2. SC... are you holding to the 25 dollar target?

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    3. I'm going to hold. Expect KODK to move higher to get overbought on weekly. Rsi should get up around 70 by January

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    4. good call... the loan alone should bring its market cap to 20 buck+ a share....

      lets see

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    5. Yes, it'll run for weeks into January. Daily is overbought so we have to work that out a bit. But weekly has the golden cross and weekly is not overbought.

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    6. There. Good. Working out the daily.

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