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Thursday, December 10, 2020

$SPX - Comparison to 2016

SPX is mimicking 2016. Both years saw lows around March, with June and September corrections, and rally after the Elections. In 2016 there was selling in later December and then a larger selloff March and April. 2 hour chart

151 comments:

  1. SPX struggling at the upper resistance.

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  2. There is a difference though. This time around the market is far more volatile.

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  3. Im looking for 3540 spx getting mixed signals here thou

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  4. Sc r u expecting next two weeks down and than up till april

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  5. sc,

    according to that chart --we are up into April


    That's interesting ---I maybe UVXY in the 5 to 7 range???



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    1. What are u looking at put your glasses on and go smoke an annisette cigar

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    2. This is very special situation for UVXY.

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  6. What is interesting about this move for UVXY is that it started exactly at the prior February major low from the panic.

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  7. Russia is beginning clinical trials on their vaccine before the end of the month.

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  8. lou,

    I miss you!

    sc,

    On this Market pull back ---I am guessing UVXY to 15?

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  9. Nice close on KODK! Up 34% on the week. Light selling seemed to dry. Should see $11.50 next week.

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  10. Key week coming up in many respects...

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  11. Sc upto now no trump success in any court battle.

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    Replies
    1. Let's see what the Electoral College has to say next.

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  12. What people need to realize is that both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine candidates are based on mRNA.

    Vaccines using mRNA have never been successful before. No mRNA vaccines have been approved previously. These companies claim to have discovered a new technology using synthetic mRNA.

    "But as elegant a mechanism as this is in theory, mRNA vaccines have faced real biological challenges since they were first developed in the 1990s."

    The odds are against these vaccines working. It's a real longshot.

    The most likely outcome for both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines is that this new technology using synthetic mRNA just doesn't work.

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    1. https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1248054

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    2. As some of you may or may not know my background is in the sciences.

      The most basic premise in science is that you form a hypothesis and then you work to disprove it.

      That hasn't happened yet with these particular vaccines.

      Pfizer and Moderna have provided their hypothesis about the mRNA. A small rollout is about to begin. This will be the test.

      In some months we will find out the results.

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    3. What they have tried to do is use a shortcut to make a "quick vaccine".

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    4. In other words the first vaccine candidates are likely to fail.

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    5. and even if they do work, it looks like the immune system retains antibodies to covid for only a very short time, 2 or 3 months max. So they want me to take a vaccine that uses new technology that's had no long term tests for adverse effects so it can give me immunity to covid for a couple of months? No way will I be a guinea pig for Moderna or Pfizer.

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    6. also, antibodies are just ONE tool the immune system uses. they've looked at immune systems of people who have covid but no symptoms or very mild symptoms and found that their immune systems have the ability to recognize infected cells. Once recognized, killer cells destroy those infected cells. Immune system also generates biochemicals that prevent the virus from replicating. Antibodies help, but the immune system has other tools. I think research should be focused on strengthening the immune system and finding effective therapies for fighting the virus once a person has symptoms rather than all this focus on a vaccine. The common cold is another corona virus. There is a reason we don't have a vaccine for the common cold, and there's also a reason you don't retain immunity to the common cold. https://news.trust.org/item/20201130191010-ibnfr

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    7. All great points! Yes treatment of respiratory may be a better approach.

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  13. "Trump blasts Barr"

    Rule #1. Never trust a lawyer.

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  14. Q: What's the difference between a vacuum cleaner and a lawyer on a motorcycle?
    A: The vacuum cleaner has the dirt bag on the inside.

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  15. Million MAGA March in Washington DC today December 12th.

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  16. Sc when u think will be buy in uvxy

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  17. sc,

    i would wait to the low 9's or 10 at least

    stimulus is around the corner

    computer trading shows enormous upward trend!

    Please advise?

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  18. Well, as I stated months ago here, go into biotech and go big as a blowoff top was coming, in LABU since 35 and added a lot in 40's......what a great year.....

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  19. It looks like 12900 on nasdaq 100 then a 1000 point drop after that 13500

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  20. https://www.bitchute.com/video/DE2Y0XvveAIn/

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  21. https://www.facebook.com/105631898033741/posts/133379028592361/

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  22. funny,

    The market hit new highs and uvxy is going up!

    Wait for two days --if this trend continues,

    start buying the uvxy---traders are purchasing protection!

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  23. I'd like see UVXY come down faster to mark the low.

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  24. It is quite likely that UVXY and SPX rise together.

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  25. sc,

    Demark is looking another 5% up---Blow off top.

    ???

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  26. Demark- called the bottom when trump went into the hospital with Covid 16. we been on a rise ever since that time. His services are
    expensive -but worth it. after the blow off-the article -states -watch out below!

    lets see-what happens

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  27. Actually --it just states--Watch out!
    it is on Marketwatch--the article!

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    Replies
    1. Bro demark is longer-term
      We gonna drop 1000 nq points

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  28. very true!

    Demark is expecting a 5% in the next two weeks

    Them the head line states watch out!

    I understand that the market makes no sense with fundamentals!

    Do I actually think Tsla is worth more than Walmart----NO!

    But with this ridiculous market can run into the end of tax season--1/1/21

    Then start dropping ---Yes!

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    1. Tesla is going to be a disaster in due course. Definitely bubble material. Musk has end game in mind. Left California and selling his assets.

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    2. The committee resisted Tesla but finally they caved. Now that Tesla included in the S&P, Musk gets his exit. When Tesla breaks so does the S&P. Yes S&P now has a foundation based on all sort of hokey and far fetched schemes.

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  29. SPX can't blowoff here because it just slowly crawls up the blue line at resistance. According to the model SPX getting ready for an 18% drop (half of the March panic). About a 700 point drop.

    It needs some time though before it will be ready. So SPX grind for now. We have to get past the Inauguration and all these other issues.

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  30. Sc u think spx crawls up till jann 21

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    Replies
    1. SPX doesn't look like it will do much December and January. Too weak.

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  31. As in August/September volatility getting ready for a move. That time VIX was right and SPX was wrong.

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  32. There are bright spot too. We're still in a reopening trade.

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  33. How convenient is it that Covid appears just as the aging baby boomers retire and need healthcare? Coincidence lol?!

    Everything happens for a reason. Demographics.

    On the next Covid selloff, just as Covid ends that is the time to get into healthcare for the demographics. We can see hospital beds filling up. So obviously there is going to be a healthcare boom.

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  34. So there are many ways to trade this market. Ideally just as we accomplished this year. Line up one trade after another. We're making money left and right!

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  35. I see 3200 in sp500 for late february beginning march, are you agree SC?

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  36. God damn kodak turned into a dud

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    1. The daily consolidating. Another splash mid January. Weekly is good.

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  37. https://www.bitchute.com/video/DE2Y0XvveAIn/

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  38. The USD is tanking. 50 MA well below 200. Can't understand why gold is not skyrocketing. Is it bitcoin?

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    Replies
    1. Gold is getting overcrowded. It's a lot of things. Yes, bitcoin. Silver is trading better.

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  39. The reopening trades taking the hit. Carnival hammered.

    SCNovember 27, 2020 at 9:10 AM

    "The reopening trade is about to reverse. The steam is going to come out of all these reopening stocks the month of December. DESTROYED"

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  40. Sc u are expecting chop up till march

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    1. For reopening trades the model that predicted big up in November and then down in December show these up January, up February and up into March.

      Then down March all the way into September.

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    2. SPX timing is more complicated though it should be close to the reopening model. The addition of TSLA is adding volatility.

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    3. So are you saying basically from Jan to March Spx is to move up?

      Any targets for the top area?

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    4. What I would say is if a person were to short SPX here it might go 200 against, but would eventually make 500. Not a trade I'm making. At least not yet. I think it can go higher maybe 200 but 700 point drop in 2021.

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    5. SC model shows up Jan-Mar then down to Sept. What about gold and silver? Thanks:)

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    6. Silver may see close to $35 by February.

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  41. That was very impressive 1 day spike for VIX. UVXY turned lows very close to the turn dates December 7th and 16th.

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    1. Do you see the lows are in for uvxy?

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    2. Probably not. Usually it takes a couple tries to break the 50 dma

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  42. sc,

    over 600 points in the pre-Market

    that is some recovery--vix was 8 this morning

    now up less that 3 points

    This is a very controlled Market

    Lets wait and see?



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  43. UVXY every time it has hit around this 50 dma in recent months it has been rejected. This time if it does reject it'll just be a quick dart down with reversal up. Let's watch here.

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  44. also somebody ---executed a very controlled option from 367 to 378 on the SPY --normally that is done in the pre or after Market!

    very Weird that this is done during trading hours!

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  45. Today, of course, being winter solstice.

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  46. The Covid indicator took a big jump up to 365,000.

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    1. To put in perspective was around 8,000 when I first noticed it.

      Covid continuing to trend. People are looking for Covid updates in greater numbers.

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    2. 8,000 in January. We spotted the Covid trend very early before most people had realized.

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  47. AHA

    This is the one...watch this Court case. Media describes as long shot. If Trump were a stock he is oversold now. Time for entry.

    "Donald Trump to make new long-shot Supreme Court bid to overturn US election"

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  48. 18 million Covid in US. Population about 335 million. 5%

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  49. CCl destroyed again. Should see $16 this month.

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    1. Do you still view 16 handle as possible before year end?

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    2. It can and I like it for $28 march target. Let's see how it goes in the later part of December.

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  50. SPX has followed the comparison very well. November was good. December went flat.

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  51. As the comparison look for selling later in the month.

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  52. Dec 24 2018 big crash, Mar 23 2020 big crash, that's 15 months. Mar 2020 to Jun 2021 is 15 months. SC your model SPX up Jan-Mar then down to Sept, do you see another crash or series of crashes, Jun 2021 to Oct 2021?

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    1. Hmmmm interesting. Thank you something to think about there.

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    2. Let's keep an eye on that timing.

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    3. This is a highly volatile market. Partly it's because retail is actively engaged and inexperienced traders are emotional. Tesla now in SPX is like throwing gasoline onto a fire. It burns hot but it also burns out quickly.

      There will be a large crash but before that I am expecting 2 scary corrections. The March correction this year was 36%. In the next correction we can expect at least 18% (half of 36%) drop in 2021.

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    4. SC - when do you expect VIX 50?

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    5. I'm still waiting for the VIX gap to fill 18.

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  53. SC, you think Trump has a chance with this lawsuit? Something like 50 or so have already been thrown out. However, my concern regarding the markets is that one of these things that he tries will actually have legs, or he that he might do something even more radical like martial law. Either of these would cause the markets to freak out! Unlikely, but the risk is there until the inauguration is behind us

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    1. The reason this is interesting for Trump is that he's always been the underdog. The 2016 Election Clinton, Mueller Russian collusion, and Impeachment all were said to be sure things. But each one failed spectacularly one after the other.

      Trump at least likely to gain some traction for this reason.

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    2. Oh I do have something I've been holding back for next year. I call it the elephant. Everyone is aware of this but nobody is paying attention or realizes the problem. This is going to be the biggest baddest as I will explain.

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    3. cool! looking forward to hearing about the elephant!

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  54. Sc ... any updates on kodk ?

    Thanks

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    1. The daily was overbought and price came off but notice the weekly MACD is going to try to cross next week.

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    2. Estimate about 3 weeks it will be ready.

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  55. amazing

    no signed stimulus bill--and we are still in the same area--

    I am guessing stimulus comes after Santa!

    or maybe we wait for Biden?

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    Replies
    1. They always find a way to kick the can further down the road...

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  56. Invu looks like it could rip higher
    It's 9 cents bought 200k shares
    It's a nice gamble I here there doing 1.4 million a month in mining

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  57. Alibaba smashing the 50 day overnight. Looks like it's heading to the 200 this time.

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  58. A very Merry historic Christmas Eve to all!!!

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  59. Merry Christmas SC!
    Thank you for all your great calls this year.
    Scott

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  60. https://youtu.be/ZrsYD46W1U0

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  61. If you watched my 1812 Overture posted December 24th you already knew that 2020 was about to end with a bang. Watch at 14:55.

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  62. https://youtu.be/L0NIZR_bLd0

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  63. Replies
    1. Looking like it's getting ready for a bounce soon then deeper plunge.

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  64. lou,

    INVU---double in two days---classic---

    you know me i like profits---took it!




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  65. lou,

    i will buy back---take it easy!

    never say no to a double in a day!

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  66. Shorted udow 100.70 shorted more tqqq 179.70

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  67. This pig looks like its getting tired

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  68. Invu I'm personally looking for 1
    Dollar

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  69. VIX has held strong all December. Let's see if we can get this 18 gap finally filled.

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  70. I'd like to see UVXY oversold on daily to enter.

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    1. UVXY weekly is also almost oversold.

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    2. Sc are you still seeing kodak move to 25 ?

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    3. This is going bigger than I thought.

      "Biden will invoke Defense Production Act to boost Covid vaccine production, advisor says"

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    4. Daily chart has been the issue. It went overbought and came down and looking like it could get oversold.

      Weekly is solid. It all suggests KODK could see lower and this is taking longer but also it is looking bigger.

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  71. SC, are you waiting for 19 in the vix

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    Replies
    1. Have been waiting to see if VIX finally fills the 18 gap

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  72. Demark-----has a topping formation in the next week or two --lets see what happens?

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