SPX is mimicking 2016. Both years saw lows around March, with June and September corrections, and rally after the Elections. In 2016 there was selling in later December and then a larger selloff March and April. 2 hour chart
What people need to realize is that both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine candidates are based on mRNA.
Vaccines using mRNA have never been successful before. No mRNA vaccines have been approved previously. These companies claim to have discovered a new technology using synthetic mRNA.
"But as elegant a mechanism as this is in theory, mRNA vaccines have faced real biological challenges since they were first developed in the 1990s."
The odds are against these vaccines working. It's a real longshot.
The most likely outcome for both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines is that this new technology using synthetic mRNA just doesn't work.
and even if they do work, it looks like the immune system retains antibodies to covid for only a very short time, 2 or 3 months max. So they want me to take a vaccine that uses new technology that's had no long term tests for adverse effects so it can give me immunity to covid for a couple of months? No way will I be a guinea pig for Moderna or Pfizer.
also, antibodies are just ONE tool the immune system uses. they've looked at immune systems of people who have covid but no symptoms or very mild symptoms and found that their immune systems have the ability to recognize infected cells. Once recognized, killer cells destroy those infected cells. Immune system also generates biochemicals that prevent the virus from replicating. Antibodies help, but the immune system has other tools. I think research should be focused on strengthening the immune system and finding effective therapies for fighting the virus once a person has symptoms rather than all this focus on a vaccine. The common cold is another corona virus. There is a reason we don't have a vaccine for the common cold, and there's also a reason you don't retain immunity to the common cold. https://news.trust.org/item/20201130191010-ibnfr
Well, as I stated months ago here, go into biotech and go big as a blowoff top was coming, in LABU since 35 and added a lot in 40's......what a great year.....
Demark- called the bottom when trump went into the hospital with Covid 16. we been on a rise ever since that time. His services are expensive -but worth it. after the blow off-the article -states -watch out below!
The committee resisted Tesla but finally they caved. Now that Tesla included in the S&P, Musk gets his exit. When Tesla breaks so does the S&P. Yes S&P now has a foundation based on all sort of hokey and far fetched schemes.
SPX can't blowoff here because it just slowly crawls up the blue line at resistance. According to the model SPX getting ready for an 18% drop (half of the March panic). About a 700 point drop.
It needs some time though before it will be ready. So SPX grind for now. We have to get past the Inauguration and all these other issues.
How convenient is it that Covid appears just as the aging baby boomers retire and need healthcare? Coincidence lol?!
Everything happens for a reason. Demographics.
On the next Covid selloff, just as Covid ends that is the time to get into healthcare for the demographics. We can see hospital beds filling up. So obviously there is going to be a healthcare boom.
So there are many ways to trade this market. Ideally just as we accomplished this year. Line up one trade after another. We're making money left and right!
What I would say is if a person were to short SPX here it might go 200 against, but would eventually make 500. Not a trade I'm making. At least not yet. I think it can go higher maybe 200 but 700 point drop in 2021.
UVXY every time it has hit around this 50 dma in recent months it has been rejected. This time if it does reject it'll just be a quick dart down with reversal up. Let's watch here.
Dec 24 2018 big crash, Mar 23 2020 big crash, that's 15 months. Mar 2020 to Jun 2021 is 15 months. SC your model SPX up Jan-Mar then down to Sept, do you see another crash or series of crashes, Jun 2021 to Oct 2021?
This is a highly volatile market. Partly it's because retail is actively engaged and inexperienced traders are emotional. Tesla now in SPX is like throwing gasoline onto a fire. It burns hot but it also burns out quickly.
There will be a large crash but before that I am expecting 2 scary corrections. The March correction this year was 36%. In the next correction we can expect at least 18% (half of 36%) drop in 2021.
SC, you think Trump has a chance with this lawsuit? Something like 50 or so have already been thrown out. However, my concern regarding the markets is that one of these things that he tries will actually have legs, or he that he might do something even more radical like martial law. Either of these would cause the markets to freak out! Unlikely, but the risk is there until the inauguration is behind us
The reason this is interesting for Trump is that he's always been the underdog. The 2016 Election Clinton, Mueller Russian collusion, and Impeachment all were said to be sure things. But each one failed spectacularly one after the other.
Trump at least likely to gain some traction for this reason.
Oh I do have something I've been holding back for next year. I call it the elephant. Everyone is aware of this but nobody is paying attention or realizes the problem. This is going to be the biggest baddest as I will explain.
SPX struggling at the upper resistance.
ReplyDeleteThere is a difference though. This time around the market is far more volatile.
ReplyDeleteIm looking for 3540 spx getting mixed signals here thou
ReplyDeleteTargets for next weeks?, please
ReplyDeleteWill do
DeleteSc r u expecting next two weeks down and than up till april
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteaccording to that chart --we are up into April
That's interesting ---I maybe UVXY in the 5 to 7 range???
What are u looking at put your glasses on and go smoke an annisette cigar
DeleteThis is very special situation for UVXY.
DeleteWhat is interesting about this move for UVXY is that it started exactly at the prior February major low from the panic.
ReplyDeleteRussia is beginning clinical trials on their vaccine before the end of the month.
ReplyDeletelou,
ReplyDeleteI miss you!
sc,
On this Market pull back ---I am guessing UVXY to 15?
Covered tqqq at 157.50 and 157.70
ReplyDeleteI will short this again thou
ReplyDeleteShorted tqqq 161
ReplyDeleteNice close on KODK! Up 34% on the week. Light selling seemed to dry. Should see $11.50 next week.
ReplyDeleteKey week coming up in many respects...
ReplyDeleteSc upto now no trump success in any court battle.
ReplyDeleteLet's see what the Electoral College has to say next.
DeleteWhat people need to realize is that both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine candidates are based on mRNA.
ReplyDeleteVaccines using mRNA have never been successful before. No mRNA vaccines have been approved previously. These companies claim to have discovered a new technology using synthetic mRNA.
"But as elegant a mechanism as this is in theory, mRNA vaccines have faced real biological challenges since they were first developed in the 1990s."
The odds are against these vaccines working. It's a real longshot.
The most likely outcome for both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines is that this new technology using synthetic mRNA just doesn't work.
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1248054
DeleteAs some of you may or may not know my background is in the sciences.
DeleteThe most basic premise in science is that you form a hypothesis and then you work to disprove it.
That hasn't happened yet with these particular vaccines.
Pfizer and Moderna have provided their hypothesis about the mRNA. A small rollout is about to begin. This will be the test.
In some months we will find out the results.
What they have tried to do is use a shortcut to make a "quick vaccine".
DeleteIn other words the first vaccine candidates are likely to fail.
Deleteand even if they do work, it looks like the immune system retains antibodies to covid for only a very short time, 2 or 3 months max. So they want me to take a vaccine that uses new technology that's had no long term tests for adverse effects so it can give me immunity to covid for a couple of months? No way will I be a guinea pig for Moderna or Pfizer.
Deletealso, antibodies are just ONE tool the immune system uses. they've looked at immune systems of people who have covid but no symptoms or very mild symptoms and found that their immune systems have the ability to recognize infected cells. Once recognized, killer cells destroy those infected cells. Immune system also generates biochemicals that prevent the virus from replicating. Antibodies help, but the immune system has other tools. I think research should be focused on strengthening the immune system and finding effective therapies for fighting the virus once a person has symptoms rather than all this focus on a vaccine. The common cold is another corona virus. There is a reason we don't have a vaccine for the common cold, and there's also a reason you don't retain immunity to the common cold. https://news.trust.org/item/20201130191010-ibnfr
DeleteAll great points! Yes treatment of respiratory may be a better approach.
Delete"Trump blasts Barr"
ReplyDeleteRule #1. Never trust a lawyer.
Good
DeleteQ: What's the difference between a vacuum cleaner and a lawyer on a motorcycle?
ReplyDeleteA: The vacuum cleaner has the dirt bag on the inside.
Hahahahahahahaha 🤣😂
DeleteMillion MAGA March in Washington DC today December 12th.
ReplyDeleteThats a good thing
DeleteShorted more tqqq 167.30
ReplyDeleteShorted more udow at 100
ReplyDeleteShorted more tqqq 168.75
ReplyDeleteSc when u think will be buy in uvxy
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeletei would wait to the low 9's or 10 at least
stimulus is around the corner
computer trading shows enormous upward trend!
Please advise?
Lol u sound 2 funny bro
DeleteWell, as I stated months ago here, go into biotech and go big as a blowoff top was coming, in LABU since 35 and added a lot in 40's......what a great year.....
ReplyDeleteShorted more tqqq 173.20
ReplyDeleteShorted more 174
ReplyDeleteIt looks like 12900 on nasdaq 100 then a 1000 point drop after that 13500
ReplyDeleteTarget 143 on tqqq
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bitchute.com/video/DE2Y0XvveAIn/
ReplyDeletehttps://www.facebook.com/105631898033741/posts/133379028592361/
ReplyDeletefunny,
ReplyDeleteThe market hit new highs and uvxy is going up!
Wait for two days --if this trend continues,
start buying the uvxy---traders are purchasing protection!
UVXY coming down slowly.
ReplyDeleteI'd like see UVXY come down faster to mark the low.
ReplyDeleteIt is quite likely that UVXY and SPX rise together.
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteDemark is looking another 5% up---Blow off top.
???
Yea where was he 3 months ago holding his sack
DeleteDemark- called the bottom when trump went into the hospital with Covid 16. we been on a rise ever since that time. His services are
ReplyDeleteexpensive -but worth it. after the blow off-the article -states -watch out below!
lets see-what happens
Actually --it just states--Watch out!
ReplyDeleteit is on Marketwatch--the article!
Bro demark is longer-term
DeleteWe gonna drop 1000 nq points
very true!
ReplyDeleteDemark is expecting a 5% in the next two weeks
Them the head line states watch out!
I understand that the market makes no sense with fundamentals!
Do I actually think Tsla is worth more than Walmart----NO!
But with this ridiculous market can run into the end of tax season--1/1/21
Then start dropping ---Yes!
Tesla is going to be a disaster in due course. Definitely bubble material. Musk has end game in mind. Left California and selling his assets.
DeleteThe committee resisted Tesla but finally they caved. Now that Tesla included in the S&P, Musk gets his exit. When Tesla breaks so does the S&P. Yes S&P now has a foundation based on all sort of hokey and far fetched schemes.
DeleteSPX can't blowoff here because it just slowly crawls up the blue line at resistance. According to the model SPX getting ready for an 18% drop (half of the March panic). About a 700 point drop.
ReplyDeleteIt needs some time though before it will be ready. So SPX grind for now. We have to get past the Inauguration and all these other issues.
Sc u think spx crawls up till jann 21
ReplyDeleteSPX doesn't look like it will do much December and January. Too weak.
DeleteAs in August/September volatility getting ready for a move. That time VIX was right and SPX was wrong.
ReplyDeleteThere are bright spot too. We're still in a reopening trade.
ReplyDeleteHow convenient is it that Covid appears just as the aging baby boomers retire and need healthcare? Coincidence lol?!
ReplyDeleteEverything happens for a reason. Demographics.
On the next Covid selloff, just as Covid ends that is the time to get into healthcare for the demographics. We can see hospital beds filling up. So obviously there is going to be a healthcare boom.
So there are many ways to trade this market. Ideally just as we accomplished this year. Line up one trade after another. We're making money left and right!
ReplyDeleteI see 3200 in sp500 for late february beginning march, are you agree SC?
ReplyDeleteTarget looks good. The timing I have some thoughts on time frame.
DeleteTell us, thanks
DeleteMarch to September selling
DeleteGod damn kodak turned into a dud
ReplyDeleteThe daily consolidating. Another splash mid January. Weekly is good.
DeleteThe USD is tanking. 50 MA well below 200. Can't understand why gold is not skyrocketing. Is it bitcoin?
ReplyDeleteGold is getting overcrowded. It's a lot of things. Yes, bitcoin. Silver is trading better.
DeleteThe reopening trades taking the hit. Carnival hammered.
ReplyDeleteSCNovember 27, 2020 at 9:10 AM
"The reopening trade is about to reverse. The steam is going to come out of all these reopening stocks the month of December. DESTROYED"
Sc u are expecting chop up till march
ReplyDeleteFor reopening trades the model that predicted big up in November and then down in December show these up January, up February and up into March.
DeleteThen down March all the way into September.
SPX timing is more complicated though it should be close to the reopening model. The addition of TSLA is adding volatility.
DeleteSo are you saying basically from Jan to March Spx is to move up?
DeleteAny targets for the top area?
What I would say is if a person were to short SPX here it might go 200 against, but would eventually make 500. Not a trade I'm making. At least not yet. I think it can go higher maybe 200 but 700 point drop in 2021.
DeleteSC model shows up Jan-Mar then down to Sept. What about gold and silver? Thanks:)
DeleteSilver may see close to $35 by February.
DeleteThat was very impressive 1 day spike for VIX. UVXY turned lows very close to the turn dates December 7th and 16th.
ReplyDeleteDo you see the lows are in for uvxy?
DeleteProbably not. Usually it takes a couple tries to break the 50 dma
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteover 600 points in the pre-Market
that is some recovery--vix was 8 this morning
now up less that 3 points
This is a very controlled Market
Lets wait and see?
UVXY every time it has hit around this 50 dma in recent months it has been rejected. This time if it does reject it'll just be a quick dart down with reversal up. Let's watch here.
ReplyDeletealso somebody ---executed a very controlled option from 367 to 378 on the SPY --normally that is done in the pre or after Market!
ReplyDeletevery Weird that this is done during trading hours!
Today, of course, being winter solstice.
ReplyDeleteThe Covid indicator took a big jump up to 365,000.
ReplyDeleteTo put in perspective was around 8,000 when I first noticed it.
DeleteCovid continuing to trend. People are looking for Covid updates in greater numbers.
8,000 in January. We spotted the Covid trend very early before most people had realized.
DeleteAHA
ReplyDeleteThis is the one...watch this Court case. Media describes as long shot. If Trump were a stock he is oversold now. Time for entry.
"Donald Trump to make new long-shot Supreme Court bid to overturn US election"
18 million Covid in US. Population about 335 million. 5%
ReplyDeleteChina has 23 cases
DeleteGOES TO SHOW U ITS ALL A BIG HOAX
DeleteCCl destroyed again. Should see $16 this month.
ReplyDeleteDo you still view 16 handle as possible before year end?
DeleteIt can and I like it for $28 march target. Let's see how it goes in the later part of December.
DeleteSPX has followed the comparison very well. November was good. December went flat.
ReplyDeleteAs the comparison look for selling later in the month.
ReplyDeleteDec 24 2018 big crash, Mar 23 2020 big crash, that's 15 months. Mar 2020 to Jun 2021 is 15 months. SC your model SPX up Jan-Mar then down to Sept, do you see another crash or series of crashes, Jun 2021 to Oct 2021?
ReplyDeleteHmmmm interesting. Thank you something to think about there.
DeleteLet's keep an eye on that timing.
DeleteThis is a highly volatile market. Partly it's because retail is actively engaged and inexperienced traders are emotional. Tesla now in SPX is like throwing gasoline onto a fire. It burns hot but it also burns out quickly.
DeleteThere will be a large crash but before that I am expecting 2 scary corrections. The March correction this year was 36%. In the next correction we can expect at least 18% (half of 36%) drop in 2021.
SC - when do you expect VIX 50?
DeleteI'm still waiting for the VIX gap to fill 18.
DeleteSC, you think Trump has a chance with this lawsuit? Something like 50 or so have already been thrown out. However, my concern regarding the markets is that one of these things that he tries will actually have legs, or he that he might do something even more radical like martial law. Either of these would cause the markets to freak out! Unlikely, but the risk is there until the inauguration is behind us
ReplyDeleteThe reason this is interesting for Trump is that he's always been the underdog. The 2016 Election Clinton, Mueller Russian collusion, and Impeachment all were said to be sure things. But each one failed spectacularly one after the other.
DeleteTrump at least likely to gain some traction for this reason.
Oh I do have something I've been holding back for next year. I call it the elephant. Everyone is aware of this but nobody is paying attention or realizes the problem. This is going to be the biggest baddest as I will explain.
Deletecool! looking forward to hearing about the elephant!
DeleteSc ... any updates on kodk ?
ReplyDeleteThanks
The daily was overbought and price came off but notice the weekly MACD is going to try to cross next week.
DeleteEstimate about 3 weeks it will be ready.
Deleteamazing
ReplyDeleteno signed stimulus bill--and we are still in the same area--
I am guessing stimulus comes after Santa!
or maybe we wait for Biden?
They always find a way to kick the can further down the road...
DeleteInvu looks like it could rip higher
ReplyDeleteIt's 9 cents bought 200k shares
It's a nice gamble I here there doing 1.4 million a month in mining
lou,
ReplyDeleteI am in .084
see you at.15
I'm looking for 1 buck
DeleteAlibaba smashing the 50 day overnight. Looks like it's heading to the 200 this time.
ReplyDeleteBABA BUBYE hahahaha
Delete*weeklies
DeleteA very Merry historic Christmas Eve to all!!!
ReplyDeleteMerry Christmas SC!
ReplyDeleteThank you for all your great calls this year.
Scott
Merry Christmas!
ReplyDeletehttps://youtu.be/ZrsYD46W1U0
ReplyDeleteMERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL!!!
ReplyDeleteMerry Christmas!!!
DeleteIf you watched my 1812 Overture posted December 24th you already knew that 2020 was about to end with a bang. Watch at 14:55.
ReplyDeletehttps://youtu.be/L0NIZR_bLd0
ReplyDeleteBABA still under pressure.
ReplyDeleteLooking like it's getting ready for a bounce soon then deeper plunge.
Deletelou,
ReplyDeleteINVU---double in two days---classic---
you know me i like profits---took it!
Well your dumb lol
DeleteDo the research lol
DeleteLook who's involved
Deletelou,
ReplyDeletei will buy back---take it easy!
never say no to a double in a day!
Shorted udow 100.70 shorted more tqqq 179.70
ReplyDeleteThis pig looks like its getting tired
ReplyDeleteInvu I'm personally looking for 1
ReplyDeleteDollar
VIX has held strong all December. Let's see if we can get this 18 gap finally filled.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to see UVXY oversold on daily to enter.
ReplyDeleteUVXY weekly is also almost oversold.
DeleteSc are you still seeing kodak move to 25 ?
DeleteThis is going bigger than I thought.
Delete"Biden will invoke Defense Production Act to boost Covid vaccine production, advisor says"
Daily chart has been the issue. It went overbought and came down and looking like it could get oversold.
DeleteWeekly is solid. It all suggests KODK could see lower and this is taking longer but also it is looking bigger.
SC, are you waiting for 19 in the vix
ReplyDeleteHave been waiting to see if VIX finally fills the 18 gap
DeleteDemark-----has a topping formation in the next week or two --lets see what happens?
ReplyDeleteHe said that 2 weeks ago
DeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete