Once the middle support is tested a rise in volatility is expected. TVIX, UVXY, and VXX are consolidating currently.
2 Day Chart
UVXY has been in a declining channel for several years, and is likely to transition into a rising trend.
2 Day Chart
Thursday, April 2, 2020
$VIX - Support Soon
VIX nears the middle support, and is anticipated to reach that level soon.
Once the middle support is tested a rise in volatility is expected. TVIX, UVXY, and VXX are consolidating currently.
2 Day Chart
UVXY has been in a declining channel for several years, and is likely to transition into a rising trend.
2 Day Chart
Once the middle support is tested a rise in volatility is expected. TVIX, UVXY, and VXX are consolidating currently.
2 Day Chart
UVXY has been in a declining channel for several years, and is likely to transition into a rising trend.
2 Day Chart
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I've been trading TVIX for $20 to $40 a pop.
ReplyDeleteIt may cool a little to around $260. Overall rising towards $500.
SC - do you think SPX and commodities like oil/silver are going to bottom together around first week of May?
ReplyDeleteIt looks like a high late April low in May.
DeleteSc market down vxx and vix down
ReplyDeleteYes, volatility has been leading. VIX hit the high in the 80 range. SPX only reached a low after VIX peaked.
DeleteSo VIX may hit a low first then SPX high.
VIX coming down. The 50 dma is 38. Low 40's VIX.
ReplyDeleteCould you envision SPX at 2850 while the VIX reaches your mid target? around 40
ReplyDeleteIt doesn't seem SPX has the strength to do that well yet. Mostly likely VIX low 40, and then VIX bounce and put in a higher lower and at time SPX can hit it's high. A number of weeks.
Delete2850 SPX
Delete38 vix
2860 SPX is 15% gain. Vix down to 39.8 is 15% also.
ReplyDeleteInteresting, thanks
DeleteThe commodity bear market has a lot to do with the current state of markets.
ReplyDeleteOil topped in 2008. 12 year bear market.
Silver topped in 2011. 9 year bear.
Oil probably bottoms first. This year. Silver in a few years.
We were looking for $18 oil. It bounced around $19.
ReplyDeleteIt can go much lower this year. $12 to $15. Possibly sub $10.
Oil is being propped up currently as USA fills the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Once the reservoir is filled the price will plummet.
Widespread bankruptcy coming for Oil companies.
ReplyDeleteBuffett selling airlines. Sell the losers keep the winners. Smart.
ReplyDeleteSC - where do you expect silver to be when gold is back to 2k?
ReplyDeleteBitcoin resistance at 8,000. I'm expecting fractional lower low this year 4,000 to be tested.
ReplyDeleteNew all time high after that.
ReplyDeleteSc r u still expecting 1550. When
ReplyDeleteNatural gas has been bouncing at this $1.70 level for 10 years and looks to be forming a low. Nat gas doesn't have the demand problem. Oil has a demand problem.
ReplyDeleteThe issue with gas is there is a glut of supply as a result of a byproduct of oil wells. What will happen is oil wells will be shut in, and supply will drop for nat gas.
Bitcoin exited at 9,775. Next entry 5,500 target 8,000.
ReplyDeleteBitcoin only reached 4,500 in regular hours. 4,000 was only seen in the overnight session.
ReplyDeleteI'll post the Bitcoin chart with all the targets and timings.
ReplyDeleteSPX on track for the 2,700 target exactly as expected.
ReplyDeletesc: where do you see a good entry point ( price / time) for a short on S&p500? are you waiting a lower low in the next future ?
Deletemany thanks..
Reviewing the levels, I think this will fail rather quickly.
DeleteSC... do you think spx has put in the low for the year?
ReplyDeleteNo, this is going to continue lower.
Deleteany natural cycles are displaced by monetary actions, thus trying to keep guessing on gold and silver is fruitless....the cycles and gold are both up....and going much higher...
ReplyDeleteThis bear market likely to continue lower for SPX.
ReplyDeleteBecause people have been trained over many years to look for quick bottoms they don't recognize this as a lasting bear market.
ReplyDeleteSc spx 273 . Vxx 41
ReplyDeleteWe do need to have patience and yes one step at a time, but this is quite exciting to see how volatility ETFs behave in a bear market.
ReplyDeleteAre are looking for a low in TVIX still? Or do you think it is on its way to $500?
ReplyDeleteWaiting to see. TVIX may see just under the previous low of $2.25 which would be an entry for run to $370.
Deleteuvxy gonna get hammered
ReplyDeleteSPX turn date April 14th high.
ReplyDeleteTVIX 50 DMA at $215.
ReplyDeleteSo far volatility ETFs are holding strong with higher low even as SPX is making a higher high.
ReplyDeleteSPX could go flat and that would drive volatility lower.
Sc max how high can spx go
ReplyDeleteHi, Rose2787..
DeleteSPX will hit the top Tomorrow,
maybe around 2792
Thank . Will u go short
ReplyDeleteTime 2 get out?
ReplyDeleteS . Svxy not going up
ReplyDeleteExactly
DeleteSVXY made such a massive drop, it will need time before it is in a position to rise.
DeleteI'll wait until next week. TVIX can still come down a little, but very impressive strength.
DeleteVIX expiration next Wed. Likely nothing major before Wed AM at earliest.
ReplyDeleteThank you!
DeleteSC, next high around the 14th, next low around May 12th sound about right?
ReplyDeleteLet's wait and see this week. I'd like to see a little more of this price action.
DeleteSC has spx has two gaps below. Will they be filled or 2600 to 2800 it will oscilliate
ReplyDeleteSc this weekend lot of technicians saying low is i . 3076 brea . We go to 3400. There are two gaps around 2600 and 2300. Do u still see lower low. When
ReplyDeleteLow 3076? Do you mean 2076
DeleteLouis I believe it is poorly phrased grammar. Maybe Rose is saying 'low is in. 3076 breaks. We go to 3400. She thinks the direction is up but has a worry about gaps at 2600 and 2300 that appear to be causing her angst.
DeleteLow in . They say. If we break upside 3076 than to 3400. Tfnn interview by chapman on thursday at 8.30 am. He called the low on march 21. 2 days earlier
ReplyDeleteDead cat bounce:
ReplyDelete"A temporary recovery in share prices after a substantial fall, caused by speculators buying in order to cover their positions"
Thst was some dead cat bounce
DeleteThese people on cnbc are just dumb bastards starting from cramer
ReplyDeleteBought TVIX $198.
ReplyDeleteHi SC .. whats the upside from your buy of TVIX @ $198
DeleteI'm out TVIX at $235.50. Quick profit.
Deletenice profit
Deletewhen will you rebuy TVIX ..
I assume you sold as SPX will rise ?
It's the April 14th turn date.
ReplyDeleteExcellent!!!
ReplyDelete"SCApril 8, 2020 at 7:48 AM
SPX turn date April 14th high."
Thanks SC
ReplyDeleteWe also have the VIX futures expiry tomorrow. The previous expiration was March 18th which was the peak of the panic. TVIX made a high on that date.
ReplyDeleteThis expiration looking likely to coincide with a volatility low.
ReplyDeleteApril 24th SPX low.
ReplyDeleteThere are other dates in May.
DeleteSc what are ur target spx for april 24
DeleteI have a plan for this, but let's see some confirmation.
Deletejesus... beauty of an entry SC...
ReplyDelete#boss
Hahaha
DeleteOil charts coming soon....
ReplyDeleteSc can u please tell us what u expecting on april 24. When spx 1550
ReplyDeleteI'll look at the targets.
DeleteSc ...
ReplyDeleteCan you share with us how you come up with your turn dates ?
Thanks
For SPX I have developed a Cycle with the turn dates. It has been extremely accurate.
DeleteI can post these timing charts sometimes and explain it in more detail.
And there's the reaction to the turn date...
ReplyDeleteI had a turn every day (april 14-18, 20 and 28). I guessed april 18 had the best cards. Wrong. Again, you beat me. Congrats.
ReplyDeleteThank you! Interesting, well let's keep an eye on this closely.
DeleteNew charts posted!
ReplyDelete