On the supply side we have seen the agreement to cut 10 Million barrels of Oil a day. Well some countries will lie and some will cheat. Still production will fall.
Watch for a demand spike! All of a sudden Oil becomes worth something once again.
Imagine the economy reopens and closes - the trading possibilities hahaha
-"China’s foreign ministry said on Thursday the World Health Organization has said there is no evidence that the coronavirus that has infected more than 2 million people globally was made in a lab. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday his government is trying to determine whether the coronavirus emanated from a lab in Wuhan, China , and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Beijing “needs to come clean” on what they know."
Using turndates in this wild market is hardly useful. Still, I have a lot of them coming together half june (some earlier, like the 6e) Perphaps backtesting the lows by then?
Massive inflows came into USO this week. 1 Billion this week.
"As of Thursday the fund held almost 150,000 June Nymex WTI contracts, which is more than a quarter of the total outstanding. It has received more than a billion dollars worth of inflows so far this week as WTI prices have plummeted below $20 a barrel."
Economy is NOT going to pick up that fast for oil to go to $35 anytime soon. I am projecting another dip in the markets in the next three weeks and a market TOP in early Oct. 2020. After that, rolling bear markets till spring 2020. COVID-19 closure damage has been done.
Identified correctly that volatility would be the biggest moving market. You'll notice looking over my posts that they have increasingly focused on volatility in recent years.
Most traders do not understand volatility. When the panic came (we knew it would) we had a huge advantage and was able to capitalize. And we are just warming up...
That's where the action is. It will continue to be our bread and butter as Volatility specialists.
SC - Are you waiting for SPX 2920 ish before entering long volatility trades again? Everyone seems to think this is going to be V-shaped recovery...one more low to SPX 1800s seems more likely?
Oil rolling from May to June contract. Nobody wants to take delivery in May because unless you have a refinery in your backyard or storage tanks there is nowhere to out the stuff.
In previous selloffs hedge funds would rent tankers to store cheap oil until the price recovered. I don't see that happening this time because most hedge funds were hit in the market selloff last month.
They are afraid for their lives. Paul Tudor Jones looked like he was hiding in a bunker. Ray Dalio looking like a cabin somewhere.
I guess you don't look at ports and what is sitting outside of them.....your bet was clearly wrong....a huge mistake for a vix guy to try and speculate on oil....
As of 08:44 a.m. ET (1244 GMT), the May contract was trading down by 36%, or $6.73 a barrel, at $11.50 a barrel, but notably, just 65,000 contracts had changed hands. By contrast, the June contract was down by a still-notable $2.90, or 12%, to $22.12 a barrel, but had more than 365,000 contracts traded.
SC I like you're 1550 target on the spx at some point.. the 2007 high never got back tested since breaking up.. i think if we don't do it in the next year to 2 .. we probably never will...
Major Oil ETF Shifts Investments as Market Turmoil Builds By Avi Salzman April 20, 2020 11:37 am ET Order Reprints Print Article The largest exchange-traded fund tracking oil prices is changing its underlying assets to deal with the massive shifts happening now in the oil market.
The United States Oil Fund (ticker: USO), which invests in near-term oil futures, will put 20% of its assets into futures contracts expiring two months out, according to a securities filing from the firm that runs it, US Commodity Funds, or USCF. For investors, that means they won’t be tracking the oil market in quite the same way they have in the past, but may have smoother.
Oil has really nice action here, possibly the most interesting market currently.
ReplyDeleteSold TVIX $235.50.
ReplyDeleteQuick and easy profit in volatility.
DeleteDid you sell all your TVIX
DeleteYes
DeleteGap has filled today on TVIX, SVXY has some support possibly.
DeleteWe'll see about volatility...
I'm liking the looks of this Oil trade. Bigger potential upside compared to volatility.
DeleteTVIX $ 245 in after hours///
Deletegreat call on TVIX what price would you rebuy at again ?
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure on that yet. Was quick and easy profit so took it.
DeleteMarch had a big win over 800% in volatility so I'm a little shy to keep trying the same big trade again this soon.
This year though another big move is coming for volatility I am convinced. The VIX futures curve is extremely favourable this year for volatility.
How will u buy oi . Uso call . Or stocks. Also can u give more light on sp . Will it go higher or will double top
ReplyDeleteLong Oil using UCO.
DeleteI'm doing some more work on SPX. Yes, I will post SPX charts.
DeleteBought UCO $1.63.
ReplyDeleteWhy buy UCO when they go to Reverse splitted April 21st
ReplyDeleteThanks! It's something to keep in mind the split date.
Deletefile:///C:/Users/Admin/Downloads/46779.pdf
ReplyDeleteSC .. do you know if UCO has already rolled over to june contracts?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Seems like UCO is rigged...
ReplyDeleteOil going much higher off the lows.. UCO is stuck at - 13% ...
I bought GUSH for an oil play. At the moment, it seems to be doing better than UCO.
ReplyDeleteSeems like GUSH is doing better up over 6% in premarket
DeleteGood call Scott
GUSH up 20%
DeleteGreat call Scott ... scooped alitle late yesterday
thank you
SC: stop loss for UCO? wti have a big montly contango in this period... S&P 500 low 24 april: could you confirm this forecast? mani thanks 4 your work
ReplyDeleteI'll look at this in more detail. There are a number of dates I can list for timing.
DeleteUCO already 8% lower today may have been an early call to buy yesterday but no1 has the magic wand
ReplyDeletelets see what happends
Oh yes it could be early for sure.
DeleteOil holding so far at $20. Strong support at $18.
ReplyDeleteThe economy "reopens" Oil goes $35 bid instantly.
ReplyDeleteThat means UV XY close to 0
DeleteExcept that VIX futures are in backwardation going into October.
DeleteOn the supply side we have seen the agreement to cut 10 Million barrels of Oil a day. Well some countries will lie and some will cheat. Still production will fall.
DeleteWatch for a demand spike! All of a sudden Oil becomes worth something once again.
Imagine the economy reopens and closes - the trading possibilities hahaha
Problem is UCO is following the June contract which is trading at about 25 dollars...
ReplyDeleteIf it goes to 20 on the june contract ... UCO looses around 40- 50%
Yes timing is the issue. Oil is in contango.
DeleteGermany says they are reopening next week.
ReplyDeleteUK has extended closing for 3 weeks.
In the USA there is talk of May 1st opening.
We'll see on the timing of events, but we are getting closer...
"New York and other East Coast states extend shutdown of nonessential businesses to May 15, Gov. Cuomo says"
ReplyDeleteSince governments are so unreliable and shifty the goal posts are going to continue to move.
ReplyDeleteThe timing will probably take longer, but Oil is the best way to play the reopening.
There is tremendous pressure to reopen because they are losing 5 Million jobs a week!
What a pop for UCO off the lows!!
ReplyDeleteawesome pop
ReplyDeletetodays low would have been a great buy
lets see the next few days SC :-)
Uco will reverse split In 5 days
ReplyDeleteSC .. can you please post a chart for SPX?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Will do, thanks!
Delete-"China’s foreign ministry said on Thursday the World Health Organization has said there is no evidence that the coronavirus that has infected more than 2 million people globally was made in a lab. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday his government is trying to determine whether the coronavirus emanated from a lab in Wuhan, China , and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Beijing “needs to come clean” on what they know."
ReplyDeleteUsing turndates in this wild market is hardly useful.
ReplyDeleteStill, I have a lot of them coming together half june (some earlier, like the 6e)
Perphaps backtesting the lows by then?
Massive inflows came into USO this week. 1 Billion this week.
ReplyDelete"As of Thursday the fund held almost 150,000 June Nymex WTI contracts, which is more than a quarter of the total outstanding. It has received more than a billion dollars worth of inflows so far this week as WTI prices have plummeted below $20 a barrel."
Economy is NOT going to pick up that fast for oil to go to $35 anytime soon. I am projecting another dip in the markets in the next three weeks and a market TOP in early Oct. 2020. After that, rolling bear markets till spring 2020. COVID-19 closure damage has been done.
ReplyDeleteSC any guess what the target price for UCO will be before split ?
ReplyDeletethanks again
We could roll out of UCO before the split and then look for another entry point afterwards.
DeleteI think you're right, Suren. The prices will rise after the oil frackers are out of business.
ReplyDeleteWhy early october 2020?
It's amazing how tvix uvxy holding up still short uvxy I have shorted all the way up this rally and volatility out of whack
ReplyDeleteI'm not a big bull for Oil, but Oil is low enough to be an interesting market this year for trading both long and short.
ReplyDeleteWith Oil in steep contango we should not be looking for long term hold at this time. This is a market we should look for opportunities to trade.
This is why I'm initiating coverage of Oil.
Identified correctly that volatility would be the biggest moving market. You'll notice looking over my posts that they have increasingly focused on volatility in recent years.
ReplyDeleteMost traders do not understand volatility. When the panic came (we knew it would) we had a huge advantage and was able to capitalize. And we are just warming up...
That's where the action is. It will continue to be our bread and butter as Volatility specialists.
Called for panic into FRIDAY THE 13TH of March. Was intense panic. Then on March 16th the call was made for the peak of the panic.
ReplyDeleteSPX is trying very desperately to get to my pink line....
ReplyDeleteAround 2900 you mean?
ReplyDeleteYes, 2927 SPX
DeleteThen down?
DeleteSC - Are you waiting for SPX 2920 ish before entering long volatility trades again? Everyone seems to think this is going to be V-shaped recovery...one more low to SPX 1800s seems more likely?
DeleteYes, it's a reflex for people to automatically think of V shaped recovery.
DeleteI think it will prove to be a mirage.
and then the drop ?
ReplyDeleteSc 2927. Vix still strong. Whe u expect big drop. New highs now
ReplyDeleteyou should be looking at Natural Gas.....its time is near or here....
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteSC whats your play on UCO since your buy ?
ReplyDeletesell
hold
buy
Oil getting hammered down
Oil rolling from May to June contract. Nobody wants to take delivery in May because unless you have a refinery in your backyard or storage tanks there is nowhere to out the stuff.
ReplyDeleteSo the June contract is higher.
This is just a waiting game until we see the "reopening" of the economy.
ReplyDeleteDon't space the buys too closely. Just wait.
Deletewhy is that ? just curious
DeleteWe don't want to pay too much for oil. Space out the buys then we can buy oil for cheap.
Deleteoh ok got it ..
Deletewhat are your price targets for UCO ... its splits tmrw before trading ,,, 1 for 25
In previous selloffs hedge funds would rent tankers to store cheap oil until the price recovered. I don't see that happening this time because most hedge funds were hit in the market selloff last month.
ReplyDeleteThey are afraid for their lives. Paul Tudor Jones looked like he was hiding in a bunker. Ray Dalio looking like a cabin somewhere.
I guess you don't look at ports and what is sitting outside of them.....your bet was clearly wrong....a huge mistake for a vix guy to try and speculate on oil....
Deletehttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/record-wide-gap-opens-u-132906549.html
ReplyDeleteAs of 08:44 a.m. ET (1244 GMT), the May contract was trading down by 36%, or $6.73 a barrel, at $11.50 a barrel, but notably, just 65,000 contracts had changed hands. By contrast, the June contract was down by a still-notable $2.90, or 12%, to $22.12 a barrel, but had more than 365,000 contracts traded.
SC I like you're 1550 target on the spx at some point.. the 2007 high never got back tested since breaking up.. i think if we don't do it in the next year to 2 .. we probably never will...
ReplyDeleteYes, exactly! Markets love to retest previous tops...
DeleteThere is one buyer for oil. Trump. He's filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. World's largest.
ReplyDelete"The pending awards are the “initial step” toward filling the SPR to its capacity, the DOE highlighted."
Some big oil trading fund in singapore went bankrupt over the weekend... They could be liquidating all their positions....
ReplyDeleteYes this could take a while. Trump wants the oil cheap, and really until he's finished buying he no incentive for high oil.
ReplyDeleteLooking at the oil futures curve contango is steep until July then it flattens with only a mild curve from that time.
ReplyDeleteThe oil price went negative in Canada!!!
ReplyDeleteHahahahaha
Deletethats crazy
DeleteGUSH is up, quite positive. Interesting that oil producers stock is up as oil is down.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.barrons.com/articles/major-oil-etf-shifts-investments-as-market-turmoil-builds-51587397035?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
ReplyDeleteMajor Oil ETF Shifts Investments as Market Turmoil Builds
By Avi Salzman
April 20, 2020 11:37 am ET
Order Reprints
Print Article
The largest exchange-traded fund tracking oil prices is changing its underlying assets to deal with the massive shifts happening now in the oil market.
The United States Oil Fund (ticker: USO), which invests in near-term oil futures, will put 20% of its assets into futures contracts expiring two months out, according to a securities filing from the firm that runs it, US Commodity Funds, or USCF. For investors, that means they won’t be tracking the oil market in quite the same way they have in the past, but may have smoother.
Oxy why has potential to go up I've been
ReplyDeleteBuying dips
well, that was not a good bet, your now bk on that trade....but the NG trade is kicking butt
ReplyDelete-37$ a barrel, history has been made....have a toast
ReplyDeleteThe holy grail! Negative oil!!!
ReplyDeletenever seen before -40 for oil
ReplyDeleteSC are you still gonna hold UCO before tmrw ?
R u still expecting 292 . If yes by when
ReplyDeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete