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Tuesday, May 21, 2019

SPX - 2019 Model - Targets and Timing

SPX continues to see failed rally attempts as it struggles to try and recover losses.  The price action appears strikingly similar to 2013, and that period provides a good model for this decline.

It is probable that this selloff is in the early stages, and the model shows the heaviest selling ahead.

3day chart

















SPX 2013 selloff:

















The longer term view also looks comparable, and the model predicted the drop in 2018 also as shown on the charts below.

3day Chart

















SPX 2013 Comparison:



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20 comments:

  1. SCMay 21, 2019 at 10:01 AM

    "Sell in May and go Away"

    ReplyDelete
  2. SCMay 21, 2019 at 10:04 AM

    Looking closely at the bars, a drop t 2,795 SPX this week could play out next. The biggest selling to hit in about 7 to 10 trading days by this model.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SamMay 21, 2019 at 10:23 AM

      the SPX target lowered from 2710 to 2600, higher target for UVXY?

      Delete
    2. SCMay 21, 2019 at 10:43 AM

      Probably, but we'll see. I'm going to look at UVXY targets closer. SVXY already lost 50% of the rally since December.

      Delete
    3. SamMay 21, 2019 at 12:09 PM

      by the model, once we see 2795 SPX, 2650 will be hit in a few days?

      Delete
    4. SCMay 21, 2019 at 12:45 PM

      No it'll take longer. Each bar in the model is taking 3 days. 2,795, bounce for a few days and down hard for a few weeks.

      Delete
  3. SCMay 21, 2019 at 10:24 AM

    Bought SPXU $30.35.

    ReplyDelete
  4. SCMay 21, 2019 at 10:27 AM

    SPX kissing the 50 MA on the daily today.

    ReplyDelete
  5. MikeMay 21, 2019 at 10:45 AM

    SC, so we hold UVXY until 2650 SPX?

    ReplyDelete
  6. louis lombardiMay 21, 2019 at 11:07 AM

    Unless we sell off the market looks to me like we're going to 2920 first

    ReplyDelete
  7. SCMay 21, 2019 at 11:23 AM

    There is strong evidence that this model selloff will continue to play out. SVXY appears to be already leading the drop having already lost 50% of it's gain from December 2018. A Large Head and Shoulders in SVXY has formed.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MikeMay 21, 2019 at 12:31 PM

      for the SVXY Head and Shoulders, target should be around $40? head(56), neckline(48),48-8=40

      Delete
    2. louis lombardiMay 21, 2019 at 6:05 PM

      hope your right i have over 2 mil short

      Delete
  8. Be CarefulMay 21, 2019 at 1:08 PM

    Above 2872, then 2898-2911.
    Below 2831, then 2798-2811.

    (April-June 2016 fractal/Brexit was all over the place too, take a look. Only got 6.5% range, up/down).

    ReplyDelete
  9. SCMay 21, 2019 at 2:36 PM

    Ah yes I see the fractal.

    ReplyDelete
  10. SCMay 21, 2019 at 6:11 PM

    Bitcoin charts are coming, and quite interesting...

    ReplyDelete
  11. ScottMay 21, 2019 at 6:55 PM

    Head and shoulders pattern is usually a Bear trap. Be careful

    ReplyDelete
  12. SCMay 22, 2019 at 8:49 AM

    New chart posted!

    ReplyDelete

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