Overall a trend sideways has established. Resistance and support levels are shown. Notice that relative to SPX, SVXY is considerably weaker on this run.
Daily
Friday, April 12, 2019
SVXY - Resistance/Support Levels Identified
Once SVXY cleared the recent high, the likelihood is that it is running to test the previous peak.
Overall a trend sideways has established. Resistance and support levels are shown. Notice that relative to SPX, SVXY is considerably weaker on this run.
Daily
Overall a trend sideways has established. Resistance and support levels are shown. Notice that relative to SPX, SVXY is considerably weaker on this run.
Daily
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so your expecting a big pop on spx?
ReplyDeleteNot a big pop. SPX slowly grind higher and then turn down. SVXY is catching up. So for SPX It'll see higher but not a big spike up or anything.
DeleteSPX is actually quite weak, struggling for the last year and a half. A very weak bull market.
The slope of the white lines is the same, price is trying to keep pace with that line.
ReplyDeleteSo we have price and timing.
ReplyDeletewith that chart we could see uvxy at 24 bucks
ReplyDeleteYes, I crunched the numbers and UVXY $25 then double to $50.
Deletetop of white line wouls put spx at what price 2940 2950?
DeleteWe should see SPX overbought in next few weeks.
DeleteWorking on a chart update for SPX with targets.
DeleteSo what is target of spx
ReplyDeleteWill post soon.
DeleteSVXY still is a bear market.
ReplyDeleteBitcoin about to lose half its value.
ReplyDeletewhats the time frame on that do you think
DeleteEstimate June.
DeleteIt is my opinion That the SPX will break above its high and that is the all time high very soon
DeleteIt'll take another month for SPX to finally be overbought.
ReplyDeleteSlow but just waiting patiently.
ReplyDeleteProbly another 30 to 40 points in the SPX
DeleteYes it's very weak and just crawling along. SVXY catching up as fear disappears.
DeleteUVXY grinding down into the zone...
Been waiting for this moment for 10 years, I can wait another month!
ReplyDeleteCharts are ready, just waiting!!
SC, wow 10 years in waiting, are we looking for a big drop to 2300 retest, not just pullback to 2650 now?
DeleteComing up to the tipping point for volatility. Earthshaking move for volatility.
DeleteSPX is extremely volatile, and the volatility will increase for years. Very choppy first and that will lead to a much larger decline. Targets are coming.
DeleteIs the big slam down next SC?
ReplyDeleteTechnically SPX is hitting up against the ceiling of resistance that led to the February 2018 and October 2018 declines.
DeleteIt is obvious that there is no trade deal with China. No agreement.
Therefore "sell in May and go away" this year...
Yeah but don't ya think were gonna test all time high or even break it first
DeleteWhere just a stone's throw away Also how can we know that there's no trade deal
Yes, we are still waiting for overbought first.
DeleteThe deadlines have come and gone. The fact is there's no deal. It'll get done eventually once the market drops.
DeleteSC: with the breakup of 5500 og btc could we see 6500 in your opinion? many thanks
ReplyDeleteBig resistance at 6,000. It's going to have trouble breaking above. Target 5,500 has been reached.
Deletespx lokking like coming
ReplyDelete2950 coming
ReplyDeleteWe do have SPX overbought, just barely, but it's there...
ReplyDeletesc macd weekly breaking out you dont think we break the high?
Deletehttps://imgur.com/a/d6VLPON
DeleteIt is early, and yes it likely will but we are getting closer.
DeleteEverything coming into alignment. SPX, volatility, SVXY, bitcoin.
ReplyDeleteSVXY one of the most bearish charts ever! Not only has it failed to recover at all from the gigantic 2018 freefall, but it is having a difficult time even reaching the September level!!
ReplyDeleteIt is clear another leg down is coming, a big one! Volatility is getting ready to explode!!
To be clear I don't see a turn being imminent here yet, SVXY should retest the September high so that's a few dollars higher.
Deleteok that mean we could see over 3000 or so correct
Delete27 uvxy?
Deletewhats your time frame on explosian
DeleteSPX grind a little higher short term, but it's not performing well. SPX pops then gives some back, very weak, SVXY is catching up to it. UVXY should see close to $25. VIX is getting ready for a big move with a spike over a few months which kicks off also a larger longer term move. Charts are coming.
DeleteThank u
DeleteA little selling off overbought but you want to see SPX solidly overbought for a turn down. We don't have that condition yet. Slowly getting there...
ReplyDeleteMarket probably down another day would expect on this little dip.
ReplyDeleteFeb 11th: SPX was at 2709.
ReplyDeleteSCFebruary 11, 2019 at 11:23 AM
2,600 SPX give or take seems realistic.
looks like market dont want to pull back looks like it wants to pop to 2950 60
Delete2840 gap has never filled yet
Deletehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-26/hedge-funds-are-shorting-the-vix-at-a-rate-never-se
DeleteWhen they say hedge funds shorting vix at a rate never before could mean a meltup
DeleteYes, absolutely VIX meltup is coming!
DeleteIt's not a coincidence that traders are once again piling into the short VIX trade just as we approach the tipping point. They apparently did not learn their lesson in 2018, and the short VIX trade remains crowded...
DeleteSC, just confused, so the next drop is a big crash drop or just another pullback before we go higher again??
ReplyDeleteSPX deep pullback. The big move will happen too, but later after the chop first. Volatility is the best trade!
Deletestill another 2-4 weeks of up move...wait until the blow off top above spx 3K
ReplyDeleteI agree
DeleteVolatility is the best trade. The big move in volatility began in January 2018, and the consolidation period is almost over. The biggest and best part is arriving...
ReplyDeleteDo you have a
DeleteTime Frame?
Yes, the start once SVXY September high of $60 is tested.
DeleteMoving very slowly, but getting there...
Deletehttps://imgur.com/a/hjppW4w
ReplyDeletelooks like 3000 to me possibly 3028
ReplyDeleteUVXY popping a little maybe it wants to fill it's gap at $35.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/luiQYQE
ReplyDeletelooks like apple going to 223 propelling market up to 3000
ReplyDeleteSC: just to see if I understood your thought. You are waiting a first sell off when S&p arrive around 3000 and or SVXY September high of $60 is tested durung may or june. Than we could see a big drop. Then markets could start again a new upleg but with vix that could sign only upper low and not lower low.. This in 2019.. BTC have a resistance around 6000, and than new low for bitcoin in June??
ReplyDeletemany thanks...
Yes, that is correct. For the timing I'd estimated this rally in SPX could finish July 4th followed by a deep pullback in 2019 and then slightly higher high. Eventually a huge selloff but first deep pullbacks and higher.
DeleteI do feel strongly that SVXY will test the September high of $60. Then large drop and lower highs with huge selloff. It is weaker than SPX.
Bitcoin also is finishing this rally. The 5,500 target has been reached and with big resistance at 6,000 it is unattractive. Next support is 2,800. Long term support 1,500.
Seems like Sell in May might have begun on May 1st...possible double top on SPX as well.
ReplyDeleteProbably still early but yes SPX is in the late stage, rally is finishing.
DeleteIt looks to me like we have formed another top and this completes the triple top of Jan18, Sept 18 and now. We may see a pop tomorrow morning on a good jobs report, but that will just add to the current angst on no rate cut from the Fed. The weekly MACD of my favorite indicator BPSPX has started to roll over. I agree with SC, the next leg down will be pretty brutal.
ReplyDeleteYes, that is the main point. SPX really hasn't gained much of anything since January 2018. Very weak.
DeleteSC u still expect uvxy 25 Looks like vix has bottomed
ReplyDeleteYes, waiting for $25.
DeleteUVXY filled $35 gap as expected. That does open the door for further downside.
DeleteBitcoin still showing strength so that says the SPX rally is still alive for now....
ReplyDeleteSo what is high of spx and when
ReplyDelete3,000 is quite important as others have mentioned, the market may be fixated on that level.
DeleteThis bull market is so weak that the dips as we saw in December are bear markets in themselves! People should find this disturbing and alarming but of course they don't...
ReplyDeleteSo from 3000. How low u expect
ReplyDeleteWorking on this chart. Post it soon with target.
DeleteSurprise! No deal, it was obvious.
ReplyDeleteSCApril 18, 2019 at 2:31 PM
"Technically SPX is hitting up against the ceiling of resistance that led to the February 2018 and October 2018 declines.
It is obvious that there is no trade deal with China. No agreement.
Therefore "sell in May and go away" this year..."
This dip probably lasts most of this week, but little downside now. Most importantly it says that the rally is nearly finished.
ReplyDeleteConfirmation that we are in the late stages. Higher high is likely still to come.
SC - we are still looking for the final top nearer to July still? Somewhere around 3050-3080 SPX?
DeleteOur first pullback may have started, but SPX will see higher highs this year. Not that high. 2,975. 3,000 eventually.
DeleteBut first step first. Let's watch for the pullback.
Im wondering if wwe close gap 2840 before we pop up to 2980
ReplyDeleteSc still 25 in uvxy ?
ReplyDeleteMaybe not. I'm watching closely interested in low $30s.
DeleteOkay there we go. Things are getting more interesting...
ReplyDeleteThe SVXY support is $45 as shown on the chart.
ReplyDeletepossible 2930 coming
ReplyDeletei meant to say 2830 lol
Deletelol....you mean 100 points in the opposite direction! lol...oops
DeleteSC, did you see where SVXY stopped? https://imgur.com/a/UemdCn8
ReplyDeleteVery good, thanks! There may be enough support for SVXY bounce to 53 then down to 45.
DeleteThat black line on the chart was great for timing but it did fall a little short on price which was annoying...
DeleteYea, it was given a good shot!
DeleteSC, SPX target for the pullback?
ReplyDeleteSo far this is a quite shallow pullback. Technically the level to watch is a retest of the March dips. 2,770.
Delete200dma currently around 2775
Deletehttps://imgur.com/a/j8BcyVj
ReplyDeletelooks like gap will be filled march 29 2830
ReplyDeleteSc: pull back is in.. but you are waiting for a new high before a hard sell off. I suppose high in july..
ReplyDeleteBut If instead the sell off was already in force
Which levels should not be violated in your opinion to have a deep inversion on the S&p500?
And bitcoin? ready to reverse?
many thanks
SPX just making a pullback. It'll see a higher high this year and another pullback. The peak is in 2020.
DeleteI think this pullback for SPX will likely end in the 2,700's. For SVXY I can say more accurately $45.
DeleteYes bitcoin should reverse and drop soon. Usually it leads but this time it us lagging. Still correlated with the stock market but it turns at different timing.
ReplyDeleteNotice how much more action is in volatility compared to SPX.
ReplyDeleteVIX has almost reached the February target of 25.
ReplyDeleteThe model shows SVXY rising next week to $53 and then the low due May 24th $45.
ReplyDeleteUVXY should fall next week to $36 and spike to $55.
SPX down to May 24th low.
SC, so SPX low next week,higher low 24th?
DeleteNo, could see a SPX small bounce next week and down into May 24th low.
Deletethanks, then next high July 4th? around 2975?
DeleteYes, June looks very strong...
DeleteLot of gaps in vix and uvxy those will be filled first
ReplyDeleteSC .. looks like bitcoin is skyrocketing?
ReplyDeleteAny updated charts?
Bitcoin at 6,300. Drop to 2,800 likely imminent.
DeleteSVXY trading at the middle support.
ReplyDeleteVery nice! There's the bounce off support!
DeleteLooks like uvxy will smash through 35
DeleteSC, the big news already happened as like you have called no deal, UVXY jumped from $30 to $46, what you see can cause another big pop for $36 to $55?
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure what the news will be but still expecting lower.
Deletewow, uvxy at $36 still target to buy?
ReplyDeleteYes, maybe see 33 or 34 though.
DeleteMarket should see 3000 then drop to 2770 then go to 3200 just my opinion
ReplyDeleteExpecting up a little for two more days and then a large drop this coming week. Might see DOW down 1,000 Wednesday/Thursday.
ReplyDeleteSC, so most of the drop will happen by end of next week, with the final low 24th? We could see SPX 2700's next week if 1000 Dow down
DeletePlunge to start the week! We're off to a great start haha!
DeleteUvxy From 35 to 55
ReplyDeleteWould u buy uvxy 35 by tuesday
ReplyDeleteUvxy still has gap 33
ReplyDeleteSC, do you use TVIX?
ReplyDeleteTVIX had issues in the past when the manager halted creation units. So I don't, but it has worked lately. Also it's more leveraged which could be problematic if the VIX futures swing too much in one day.
DeleteBTC and SPX did the opposite of your cycles which turn out to be pitchforks....when do you acknowledge the cycles are not working....
ReplyDeleteWatch and see.
Deletelooks like 2770 march lows first con fusing market whats the plan to buy uvxy at 33
Deletebitcoin flying
DeleteQuite pleased with the SVXY chart above.
ReplyDeleteDOW futures down 500, with another 500 more to go...
ReplyDeletegood call that was a big head fake you were right
Deleteso i guess your looking for svxy to hit 58 to 60 first
i meant to say 45 first
DeleteCan u post new chart
ReplyDeleteUVXY run to $50. SVXY drop to $45, then run to $59.
ReplyDeleteyou see $45 this week, or low still 24th?
DeleteI think for SVXY watch for low this week and for SPX low due next week.
Delete2770 still the target for low after today's big drop?
DeleteSPX maybe down 100 today. Now that the selloff is well underway we can more accurately examine targets. 2,710.
DeleteSC - with SVXY going back to 59ish...this is just a small correction for SPX before new highs ahead?
DeleteGbtc at 10.45 from 3.88
ReplyDeleteAwesome move!
DeleteDOW down 600. 400 more to go.
ReplyDeleteDOW down 700. 300 more to go.
ReplyDeletetherers no guarantees just death and taxes there is a possibility if 2800 holds wew could have a huge rally
DeleteFantastic call!
ReplyDeleteSC.. do you still see bitcoin crashing down to 2800?
ReplyDeleteIt seems to have blown through that 6k mark by a long shot...
Yes, Bitcoin was very strong on this move. This is a common chart and technically it is still bullish. It'll probably see some pauses and continue higher for a few weeks but I still think it is close to forming a top.
DeleteSC, great call, many are now calling for retest of Dec low 2350, you see any chance we crash here into 24th low?
ReplyDeleteIt'll be choppy but continue to decline with lower lows ahead.
DeleteNot ready for a big drop yet..
DeleteSC, if UVXY pullback a bit, you still looking to buy?
ReplyDeleteYes, choppy but heading for $50.
DeleteAt what price are you looking to buy?
DeleteWe may see $34 to $37. Let's see how things play out here.
DeleteSC, almost $37, still looking to buy?
Delete$37 reached. Could be interested in a pop here.
Deletetarget is $50 for the pop?
Deletejust wondering if still $50 after another big drop today?
DeleteYes it can
DeletesC: what happen n BTC? could we have an A-B-C correction in S&p 500 before resuming trend for the july top?
ReplyDeletemany thanks..
Bitcoin still looks like it'll press higher for a few weeks. Moving averages will push it higher in this configuration typically. Some sideways pauses and higher.
DeleteWhat is interesting about bitcoin is that it is trading like a normal market. The big runs seen in previous years are over.
UVXY settling back here which is fine. The gap yesterday was gigantic. It can cool off this week, but the next spike up will likely occur within a week to $48, and another consolidation before another push.
ReplyDeleteSPX nowhere even close to a low. It'll consolidate here but lower lows ahead.
ReplyDeleteSPX so far has lost all of March and all April's gains.
ReplyDeletesc when is this big drop suppose to occur
ReplyDeleteLong way away yet.
DeleteReality now being acknowledged that the US is in a full blown trade war.
ReplyDeleteSCMay 5, 2019 at 7:33 PM
Surprise! No deal, it was obvious.
SCApril 18, 2019 at 2:31 PM
"Technically SPX is hitting up against the ceiling of resistance that led to the February 2018 and October 2018 declines.
It is obvious that there is no trade deal with China. No agreement.
Therefore "sell in May and go away" this year..."
After 2 weeks of steady decline for SPX it is due for a breather before the rug is pulled out again.
ReplyDeletewhen will rug be pulled out in june or july looks like we going back up here is your pause a move back up
DeleteNext week
DeleteLOOKS LIKE VWE WILL POP OVER 2900 AGAIN
ReplyDeleteMARKETS RIPPIN LIKE I THOUGHT HELD 2800
ReplyDeleteYes, good call at 2,800!
DeleteSPX testing the big gap.
ReplyDeleteSC
ReplyDeleteI’m curious where you’re interested in selling short?
Thank you for your great calls!
Thank you! Let's see how things play out a bit here first. Market a little soft this morning but we may see a bounce materialize before the next leg lower.
DeleteSure enough, materialize it did.
DeleteSC - Any target for SPX bounce? 2900 before lower again?
Deletelooks like 2930 to 3000
Deletemarkets gonna bang new highs
ReplyDeleteim wondering if may 6 gap on uvxy will be filled
ReplyDeleteIt does look that way.
Deleteif we hit 57 svxy that will drop uvxy to 26
Deletei amshort beyond meat bynd
ReplyDeletei shorted this piece of crap bynd at 95
ReplyDeleteSCMay 13, 2019 at 10:27 AM
ReplyDeleteSPX maybe down 100 today. Now that the selloff is well underway we can more accurately examine targets. 2,710.
lol.....right!
SVXY has almost reached our weekly objective of $53, which would give it a green weekly candle after two weeks of decline. So even with Monday's drop it is bouncing as expected.
ReplyDeleteNext week is where things will get interesting again...
lets try to get a trade we missed the last 2
Deletecovered my bynd
Deleteim gonna wait for the 28 for bynd
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSkNIpNWX0k
ReplyDelete